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  • Ukraine Update: Interview with Luke Harding

    WEDNESDAY 26 OCTOBER 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE, Ukraine World Podcast with journalist Luke Harding

    • Harding’s new book:
    • https://www.amazon.com/Invasion-Inside-Russias-Ukraines-Survival-ebook/dp/B0BBC4TLH9/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1E75BPYEFB38U&keywords=luke+harding&qid=1666903129&qu=eyJxc2MiOiI0LjAyIiwicXNhIjoiMy44NCIsInFzcCI6IjMuNDUifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=luke+hard%2Caps%2C551&sr=8-1
    • WEDNESDAY 26 OCTOBER 2022
    • UKRAINE UPDATE, Ukraine World Podcast with journalist Luke Harding
    • Harding’s new book:
    • https://www.amazon.com/Invasion-Inside-Russias-Ukraines-Survival-ebook/dp/B0BBC4TLH9/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1E75BPYEFB38U&keywords=luke+harding&qid=1666903129&qu=eyJxc2MiOiI0LjAyIiwicXNhIjoiMy44NCIsInFzcCI6IjMuNDUifQ%3D%3D&sprefix=luke+hard%2Caps%2C551&sr=8-1
    •  
    • Harding was removed from Russia for covering what were considered controversial subjects such as how much money Russian president Vladimir Putin has, or the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko, or the war in Chechnya.  
    • Harding describes the invasion and war against Ukraine as a  19th century imperial war of conquest.  “It is,” Harding maintains, “Vladimir Putin’s war.” 
    • The following are notes on Harding’s comments.
    • What started as an aggressive war has now been presented to the world as a defensive war, a war to protect Russian territory from Ukraine and from the West.
    • There is an “incoherency” in this war effort which is partly why it is failing.
    • Russia, under Putin, is a “mafia state.” 
    • Review of Harding’s book “Mafia State.”
    • https://www.theguardian.com/books/2011/oct/21/mafia-state-luke-harding-review
    •  
    • Podcast Host: It’s not just Putin, it’s Russians who have invaded and perpetrated so much violence.
    • Harding references a book “The Captive Mind.”  And says that what we have in Russia is a captive mind.  
    •  
    • Russian television perpetrates the idea that Ukrainians are Nazis, not people,  or American puppets, or vassals.  They are portrayed as sub-human.  Much of the population consumes this propaganda every day.  And this propaganda works.  It works in Russia and elsewhere.
    • Harding: “The Russians are bad at many things, but they are good at propaganda.”  They are good at information.
    • Putin doesn’t believe in anything.  He is a supreme nihilist.  He is probably the world’s foremost exponent of nihilism.  He doesn’t believe in truth. 
    • People in the street repeat what they have seen on Russian television when you ask them what they think about Ukraine. 
    • One of the problems is the vast difference between what is actually happening in Ukraine and what the Russian media puts out.    
    • Host: Do you see a way out of this?  We don’t see much of a hope.  There have been many protests, revolutions and movements in Russia.  While they make some change, there is no fundamental change. 
    • Harding: There are brief “anarchist moments of democracy” where you think there is a chance for a change.  Then there’s a really concerted counter revolution.  And, authoritarianism is restored.  The only common theme is that Russia will always remain a great power.
    • (Note: Facebook is banned in Russia.)
    • We have seen brave people in Russia: Navalny, for example, and journalists investigating Russian money.  There are principled, educated, moral people who want a better future.  But, they are dealing with an extremely repressive police state.  It’s very hard to oppose that state.
    • Popular protest is very hard.  The forces in civil society are very weak. 
    • Aside from popular protest, there is the theoretical possibility of a coup. 
    • But, Harding calls the notion of a coup, a “unicorn.”  The most likely scenario is for Putin to exit “horizontally.  The way he dies is up for grabs.  And we don’t know when this will happen.  Things are not going well for Putin in the war.
    • “I don’t see a palace coup scenario.”  Says Harding.
    • Harding references “The Death of Stalin”, a film.  He says that we all think it will be like the movie, but that is unlikely.
    • “It’s not just that they are gangsters. (the Kremlin)  They are provincial gangsters…They are small petty stupid vicious nasty, uneducated gangsters who have seized the state.”
    • Harding references the book: Nothing is real, Peter Koramansov, who writes about Ukraine.  “It’s all a play.”  The parliament, politics.  These things exist in Russia, but they are not real.  (That soon will be the situation in this country.)
    • Remembering that it is a mafia state, explains so much about what Russia is doing.
    • Civil society in Russia has been violently suppressed.  At one time there was a vibrant civil society, but many of the people who were part of that vibrant society have left.  Gary Kasparov, for example. 
    • Harding notes video “Explainers” on the Guardian website.
    • https://www.theguardian.com/tone/explainers+world/ukraine
    •  
    • We are near the end.  “This is the end of Putin.”  How that happens, when that happens, I don’t know.  My feeling is that we are towards the end.
    •  
    • Host: Russia is not a nation state.  It is an empire with lots of ethnicities inside it.  Can these ethnicities challenge the central power?
    • The various ethnic powers are still too weak. 
    • Harding mentions the author, Victor Suvorov.
    • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Suvorov
    • Suvorov wrote a series of books about his own experience inside the intelligence services of Russia.  He has defected now.  He describes Russia as having a sort of cancer.  He thinks that the state will collapse and divide into all these separate ethnicities.  But, Harding feels, these national minorities are too weak.
    • The Chechen wars were not that long ago and the Chechens paid a terrible price for their effort.  It’s a warning to others trying the same thing.
    •  
    • Host: This is one of the reasons Putin hates Lenin.  Under Lenin, the separate ethnicities were considered free to develop their cultures.  This was a time that was much less totalitarian.
    • Harding agrees.  Putin “has been reviving the classical Russia imperial thinking of the 1820s and 1830s.” 
    • Putin hates Lenin.  But in occupied territories they put up statues of Lenin.  This demonstrates that there is no ideological consistency, which refers back to the mafia issue.   “There is no coherent ideological project here from Putin.  It is just a messianic desire…to go down in history as Ivan the Terrible, or Peter the Great, or Stalin…”
    • Instead, Putin will go down in history as a “sociopathic adventurer.”  He will “lose everything.”
    • Harding’s book: “Invasion: The Inside Story of Russia’s Bloody War and Ukraine’s Fight for Survival.”
    • It’s the first book reported from the front lines.  In Autumn of 2021, Harding was convinced there was going to be an invasion, unlike many others.  Harding says, always bet on the really terrible path, that is what Putin will do.
    • This is a new age.  “The Germans have abandoned pacifism.”  “It is a transformational moment.”
    •  
    • Host: When talking to Ukrainians I see ordinary people become heroic. 
    • Harding: In Ukraine people did what they could, students made bombs, not because anybody told them to.  In Russia, everything is from the top down.  People are compelled to join the military.
    • There is an intellectual tradition of self-government in Ukraine, the Cossacks, for example.  This is a totally different model from the Russians.  Ukraine is a super collective.  A “flourishing of civil society…horizontally bonded society…(and it) will win.”
    • Host: What has the West misunderstood?
    • Harding: I can think of about 300 things. 
    • For one, the nature of the Putin regime.  This has been a real problem in terms of Western policy.  For too long, there was a naïve belief that Putin could be accommodated.  There was a feeling that you could arrive at some mutual space, reach a deal, an agreement with Putin.  The last 20 years tells us that Putin has never been interested in a mutual solution.  And, for Putin, everything is zero-sum: What is good for America is bad for Russia.
    • It’s “fuckyouism.” Putin just wants to fuck everything up.
    • For example, the pipeline explosions.  It’s clear that the Russians did it and that it was meant to send a message to the Europeans.  Policy makers have finally wound up, after so much – assassinations, the dismantling of civil society in Russia, the Georgia war, 2014.  And after all this we have gone back to containment.  You cannot sit down with Putin and make an agreement.  He will lie and cheat and break it.  That’s how he sees practical politics.
    • “Russia is a spoiler…a dangerous player in world affairs…the only way to contain Russia, I’m afraid, is with military force.”
    • “Putin is a coward…terrified about his own personal security…(an example is the) long table…(he is) terrified of death, his personal extinction.”  He feels that he was sent by God to do great things. 
    • Biden has promised huge consequences for nuclear strike, and Putin’s fear would be extermination.  Strangely enough, if he thinks the Americans are going to try to kill him, it might save us.
    • “The Kremlin does increasingly resemble a Doomsday cult.”
    • If we are talking about restoring all of the territory, including Crimea and neutralizing Russia, that’s quite a big ask.  If Ukraine surviving as a sovereign state on a Westward trajectory, Ukraine has already won.
    • There is the hope that “tyranny will not prevail.”
    •  
    • Harding was removed from Russia for covering what were considered controversial subjects such as how much money Russian president Vladimir Putin has, or the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko, or the war in Chechnya.  
    • Harding describes the invasion and war against Ukraine as a  19th century imperial war of conquest.  “It is,” Harding maintains, “Vladimir Putin’s war.” 
    • The following are notes on Harding’s comments.
    • What started as an aggressive war has now been presented to the world as a defensive war, a war to protect Russian territory from Ukraine and from the West.
    • There is an “incoherency” in this war effort which is partly why it is failing.
    • Russia, under Putin, is a “mafia state.” 
    • Review of Harding’s book “Mafia State.”
    • https://www.theguardian.com/books/2011/oct/21/mafia-state-luke-harding-review
    •  
    • Podcast Host: It’s not just Putin, it’s Russians who have invaded and perpetrated so much violence.
    • Harding references a book “The Captive Mind.”  And says that what we have in Russia is a captive mind.  
    •  
    • Russian television perpetrates the idea that Ukrainians are Nazis, not people,  or American puppets, or vassals.  They are portrayed as sub-human.  Much of the population consumes this propaganda every day.  And this propaganda works.  It works in Russia and elsewhere.
    • Harding: “The Russians are bad at many things, but they are good at propaganda.”  They are good at information.
    • Putin doesn’t believe in anything.  He is a supreme nihilist.  He is probably the world’s foremost exponent of nihilism.  He doesn’t believe in truth. 
    • People in the street repeat what they have seen on Russian television when you ask them what they think about Ukraine. 
    • One of the problems is the vast difference between what is actually happening in Ukraine and what the Russian media puts out.    
    • Host: Do you see a way out of this?  We don’t see much of a hope.  There have been many protests, revolutions and movements in Russia.  While they make some change, there is no fundamental change. 
    • Harding: There are brief “anarchist moments of democracy” where you think there is a chance for a change.  Then there’s a really concerted counter revolution.  And, authoritarianism is restored.  The only common theme is that Russia will always remain a great power.
    • (Note: Facebook is banned in Russia.)
    • We have seen brave people in Russia: Navalny, for example, and journalists investigating Russian money.  There are principled, educated, moral people who want a better future.  But, they are dealing with an extremely repressive police state.  It’s very hard to oppose that state.
    • Popular protest is very hard.  The forces in civil society are very weak. 
    • Aside from popular protest, there is the theoretical possibility of a coup. 
    • But, Harding calls the notion of a coup, a “unicorn.”  The most likely scenario is for Putin to exit “horizontally.  The way he dies is up for grabs.  And we don’t know when this will happen.  Things are not going well for Putin in the war.
    • “I don’t see a palace coup scenario.”  Says Harding.
    • Harding references “The Death of Stalin”, a film.  He says that we all think it will be like the movie, but that is unlikely.
    • “It’s not just that they are gangsters. (the Kremlin)  They are provincial gangsters…They are small petty stupid vicious nasty, uneducated gangsters who have seized the state.”
    • Harding references the book: Nothing is real, Peter Koramansov, who writes about Ukraine.  “It’s all a play.”  The parliament, politics.  These things exist in Russia, but they are not real.  (That soon will be the situation in this country.)
    • Remembering that it is a mafia state, explains so much about what Russia is doing.
    • Civil society in Russia has been violently suppressed.  At one time there was a vibrant civil society, but many of the people who were part of that vibrant society have left.  Gary Kasparov, for example. 
    • Harding notes video “Explainers” on the Guardian website.
    • https://www.theguardian.com/tone/explainers+world/ukraine
    •  
    • We are near the end.  “This is the end of Putin.”  How that happens, when that happens, I don’t know.  My feeling is that we are towards the end.
    •  
    • Host: Russia is not a nation state.  It is an empire with lots of ethnicities inside it.  Can these ethnicities challenge the central power?
    • The various ethnic powers are still too weak. 
    • Harding mentions the author, Victor Suvorov.
    • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Suvorov
    • Suvorov wrote a series of books about his own experience inside the intelligence services of Russia.  He has defected now.  He describes Russia as having a sort of cancer.  He thinks that the state will collapse and divide into all these separate ethnicities.  But, Harding feels, these national minorities are too weak.
    • The Chechen wars were not that long ago and the Chechens paid a terrible price for their effort.  It’s a warning to others trying the same thing.
    •  
    • Host: This is one of the reasons Putin hates Lenin.  Under Lenin, the separate ethnicities were considered free to develop their cultures.  This was a time that was much less totalitarian.
    • Harding agrees.  Putin “has been reviving the classical Russia imperial thinking of the 1820s and 1830s.” 
    • Putin hates Lenin.  But in occupied territories they put up statues of Lenin.  This demonstrates that there is no ideological consistency, which refers back to the mafia issue.   “There is no coherent ideological project here from Putin.  It is just a messianic desire…to go down in history as Ivan the Terrible, or Peter the Great, or Stalin…”
    • Instead, Putin will go down in history as a “sociopathic adventurer.”  He will “lose everything.”
    • Harding’s book: “Invasion: The Inside Story of Russia’s Bloody War and Ukraine’s Fight for Survival.”
    • It’s the first book reported from the front lines.  In Autumn of 2021, Harding was convinced there was going to be an invasion, unlike many others.  Harding says, always bet on the really terrible path, that is what Putin will do.
    • This is a new age.  “The Germans have abandoned pacifism.”  “It is a transformational moment.”
    •  
    • Host: When talking to Ukrainians I see ordinary people become heroic. 
    • Harding: In Ukraine people did what they could, students made bombs, not because anybody told them to.  In Russia, everything is from the top down.  People are compelled to join the military.
    • There is an intellectual tradition of self-government in Ukraine, the Cossacks, for example.  This is a totally different model from the Russians.  Ukraine is a super collective.  A “flourishing of civil society…horizontally bonded society…(and it) will win.”
    • Host: What has the West misunderstood?
    • Harding: I can think of about 300 things. 
    • For one, the nature of the Putin regime.  This has been a real problem in terms of Western policy.  For too long, there was a naïve belief that Putin could be accommodated.  There was a feeling that you could arrive at some mutual space, reach a deal, an agreement with Putin.  The last 20 years tells us that Putin has never been interested in a mutual solution.  And, for Putin, everything is zero-sum: What is good for America is bad for Russia.
    • It’s “fuckyouism.” Putin just wants to fuck everything up.
    • For example, the pipeline explosions.  It’s clear that the Russians did it and that it was meant to send a message to the Europeans.  Policy makers have finally wound up, after so much – assassinations, the dismantling of civil society in Russia, the Georgia war, 2014.  And after all this we have gone back to containment.  You cannot sit down with Putin and make an agreement.  He will lie and cheat and break it.  That’s how he sees practical politics.
    • “Russia is a spoiler…a dangerous player in world affairs…the only way to contain Russia, I’m afraid, is with military force.”
    • “Putin is a coward…terrified about his own personal security…(an example is the) long table…(he is) terrified of death, his personal extinction.”  He feels that he was sent by God to do great things. 
    • Biden has promised huge consequences for nuclear strike, and Putin’s fear would be extermination.  Strangely enough, if he thinks the Americans are going to try to kill him, it might save us.
    • “The Kremlin does increasingly resemble a Doomsday cult.”
    • If we are talking about restoring all of the territory, including Crimea and neutralizing Russia, that’s quite a big ask.  If Ukraine surviving as a sovereign state on a Westward trajectory, Ukraine has already won.
    • There is the hope that “tyranny will not prevail.”

  • UKRAINE UPDATE

    FRIDAY 21 OCTOBER 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE: Telegram Podcast.

    • A lot of missile strikes today.  Russia is trying to terrorize the civilian population in order to break the Ukrainian will.
    • The dam is under threat.  Ukraine says that Russia has placed mines on the dam. 
    • This would be an environmental and humanitarian disaster.  It would stop the Ukrainian advance. 
    • The Ukrainians are installing cement shelters at bus stops, preparation for long term air war.
    • British Ministry of Defense updates on the movement in Belarus.  This force, a combined Russian and Belarusian force, is not nearly what the Russians have maintained.  They just don’t have the soldiers.  The advantage of the propaganda is to make Ukraine wonder whether they need to take the threat seriously.  If seriously, how seriously and how many troops should be moved.  This is a threat of a new axis to the North.  The aim is to tie down Ukrainian resources.
    • Kakhovka Dam.
    • As conventional warfare goes badly for the Russians, they are resorting to unconventional warfare.  This potential bombing of the Kakhovka Dam is an example of that. 
    • In 1941, as German troops were sweeping through Ukraine, Stalin’s troop blew up a dam to slow down the Nazi advance.  This killed 20,000 to 100,000 civilians.  The potential damage is enormous.
    • If the West were clearer on where the red lines were, this might not be being threatened.
    • Republicans
    • Remark about not giving Ukraine a blank check if the Republicans take over the Congress.  “It’s a lot bigger than Ukraine.”  Quote from Biden.
    • Turkey
    • Turkey has been something of a mediator in this conflict.  Erdogan is passing along the message that Putin is willing to negotiate.  This is another example of Putin sending diplomatic messages through third parties.
    • Western leaders think Russia needs a defeat in this conflict.
    • Winter
    • Cold weather means the risk of freezing to metal surfaces.  It’s more difficult and dangerous operating machinery.  Winter slows everything down.  The Ukrainian counter-attacks are important when you think of the coming winter.
    • The winter will also make worse the European situation and therefore their commitment to Ukraine.
    • Political leaders need to better explain why the situation is so hard and why it is important.
    • Winter is the key strategy for the Russians.  They think the tide both militarily and politically will turn for them with the winter.
    • Incident – Russian military plane letting go a missile near a British plane.
    • This was over the Black Sea.  The reporter thinks that this was a mistake by a Russian pilot and not a Kremlin approved action.  He thinks it is highly unlikely it was a technical mistake.

  • Ukraine Update: Cyber Attacks in Ukraine

    Morning News Roundup:

    Evacuation of Russians in Ukraine

    https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/2022-10-14/russia-to-evacuate-civilians-from-kherson-as-ukraine-advances

    Russian Military

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-live-endemic-corruption-and-poor-logistics-harming-russian-progress-says-uk/ar-AA12Z0bs

    Key Events in the War

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/15/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-234

    Putin’s Speech

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/14/actions-are-correct-and-timely-putin-comments-on-mobilisation

    Map of Ukraine

    https://www.worldatlas.com/maps/ukraine

    Russian Soldiers Pay for Body Armour

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-russia-war-latest-moscow-forces-conscripts-to-pay-570-for-body-armour-says-mod/ar-AA12Z24s

    Podcasts About Ukraine

    Doomsday Watch

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/doomsday-watch-with-arthur-snell/id1593634121

    Ukraine: The Latest

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182

    Notes from “The Red Line” Podcast, The Cyber War in Ukraine, September 4, 2022

    • The biggest miscalculation about the war was about cyber. 
    • (Note: Sir)
    • A Test Run for Terror
    • Ukraine is much more prepared.  They tried to attack, but the results were not very successful. 
    • There were attacks against the Ukraine infrastructure.  Even attacks that were successful, were mitigated quickly.
    • The media is not really reporting the failed attempts. 
    • As we saw with the military, corruption is rife in hacker world.  This means that all of the money was not invested in cyber attacks, but siphoned off into corruption.
    • Russia is using proxy groups to try to keep the activities from being tied directly to Russia.
    • Some of the attacks coincide with on the ground military activity.
    • Pegasus has been told to Saudi, India, Kazakhstan.
    • Pegasus is software, Israeli, installed without the users permission.  Politicians found out that they had Pegasus surveillance. 
    • Pegasus was not particularly useful in Ukraine.  There were lots of alternatives.  You have to send to particular phone number and the person needs to click on it to install Pegasus.
    • On the front line, the internet connection is not that good anyway.  It’s easier to use the cell towers to intercept calls.
    • The Ukrainians have captured conversations between Russian soldiers and their relatives.
    • China buried monitoring in Weiger keyboards that the Weigers needed to communicate.
    • You can identify where someone is by triangulating between cell towers.  If there are a lot of users in a particular area, you know something is going on.
    • We are eight years into the war.
    • The Russians also did not expect this war to take very long and therefore may not have planned for any extended cyber warfare.
    • It is likely that the Russians will try to affect the heating infrastructure to make the winter more difficult.
    • Modems and Machine Guns.
    • The cyber attacks started before the invasion.  The goal was to make the population panic and disrupt their trust in the state.
    • The cyber attacks before the war were largely unsuccessful.
    • When they go into a territory they first try to destroy any access to mobile service.
    • 2014, 2015 the Russians launched a very successful cyber attack.  Ukraine was not prepared for this cyber warfare.  The power grids were out.  The same virus was used in 2022.  This was not as successful. 
    • There has been a large cyber hacking effort privately in response to the invasion.

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: Military update, Putin and Musk

    UKRAINE THE LATEST, Telegraph Podcast (10/12/22)

    “Nobody’s going to break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”

    Military Developments

    • It has been an active 24 hours.  Ukraine says it’s reclaimed five villages in the Donbas.  There’s a steady advance by the Ukrainians.  Four Russian helicopters shot down.  Missile strikes all over Ukraine. 
    • 30 Cruise Missiles fired from Russian aircraft which were over the Black Sea or Russia.  These are well away from any air defense by Ukraine.  Russians will not sent their air force beyond Russian territory or beyond their own troop lines.  This is a significant lacking militarily. 
    • There drone strikes as well.  They are drones with warheads on them as well as cameras.  The operator can determine what the drones attack.  They are called “one way” drones or “Kamikaze” drones.   

    Kerch Bridge)

    • The Kerch bridge attack.  There is a road bridge and a rail bridge.  Early in the morning on Saturday, there was an explosion on or under the road bridge.  This caused a massive fire in a train passing.  Some of the road bridge fell into the water.  We think the blast was on the road bridge.  There is speculation it came from underneath the bridge.  We don’t know.  Probable it was a truck bomb.  If it was a suicide bomber, it would be a first. 
    • Putin has been saying he could protect Crimea and keep the war from coming to them.  This puts the lie to that.  This added to the sense of insecurity of the Russians in Crimea.  Something got through the Russian defenses. 

    Donetsk Region

    • This is the scene of conflict for a long time. The Russians have pushed forward in this region.  Incremental progress. 
    • Bakhmut is the front line. On the east, the Russians have a foothold.  The shelling is constant. 
    • We’ve been told that the Wagner group is around Bakhmut.
    • The Wagner Group is driving the Bakhmut offensive.  There have been rumors that the Russians are keeping the Wagner Group occupied so they won’t be involved in any power struggle that might occur in Moscow should Putin’s power be questioned.
    • The locals were saying that the Wagner Group was on the east side of the river.
    • The reporter has no idea why the Wagner Group is there.  There are rumors that they are being paid by the activity they engage in.  They get paid for fighting.  Maybe there is a bounty on Bakhmut. 
    • Article in Telegraph about Russia’s private armies.
    • Wagner is the Russian private military operator.  Man behind Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenged Russian lawmakers to fund private armies or go to Ukraine and fight themselves.
    • (Note: BBC article about Wagner. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877)
    • Prigozhin is shaming the Russian legislature for not being active enough.  This is something to watch.  A discussion is going on among analysts about how public Prigozhin is becoming.
    • For years, he was not seen in public.  You would have trouble finding photographs of him.  Question is what this means.  Is he vying for Putin’s attention? 
    • Biden’s interview with CNN.  Biden’s comment on Putin’s motivation.  Whether Putin is delusional.  Biden says Putin is a “rational actor” who miscalculated.  He honestly expected that Ukrainians would welcome Russian soldiers with open arms. 
    • At the beginning of the war, it was leaked that the FSB was feeding Putin with inaccurate information. 

    Elon Musk

    • Musk was supposedly talking to Putin when Putin told him personally that Putin would use nuclear weapons if Ukraine tried to reclaim Crimea.  The claims about the conversation came from Ian Bremmer.  Musk denies saying this.   
    • The content of this alleged conversation was that Putin was ready to talk peace, but conditions were that Crimea would remain Russian and that Ukraine has a neutral status and that Russia’s annexation of the four territories is recognized.  If that really is the position of Putin, it betrays a disconnect with reality.  First, you don’t make demands like that unless you are winning the war.  Second, Crimea was probably going to be Russian, remain Russian before the beginning  of the war.  Putin has no grasp of the attitude in the West.
    • Putin thinks that the West has “always given in to us, and they always will.” (Quote from reporter)  There is a spineless mercantile attitude behind the statement of values.  He doesn’t grasp how seriously the West takes this war.  He doesn’t believe that they consider this part of their existential status. 
    • The Kremlin has denied the conversation with Musk.  But, it’s not the first time Putin is talking about matters of national importance with celebrities.  As Putin is disillusioned with politicians, he has been trying to reach out to celebrities.  He has hosted anyone from French and American actors (Seagal).  This became an outlet for addressing the publics. This is not out of character for Putin.
    • They are trying to find a way to seek a cease fire.  This will likely happen again.

    Sir Jeremy Flemming, head of GCHQ, national intelligence Britain

    • This was an annual security lecture.  He was highlighting the threat from China in terms of internet hackers.  Talking about Ukraine, he was saying that there had been a huge amount of cyber activity going on.
    • He was asked about prior warnings, preparations for a nuclear attack.  He said it was highly likely we would spot it, but not certain. 
    • NATO exercises are not going to be cancelled.  Practicing the reaction to nuclear attack. 

  • Ukraine fighting map

    twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1580369650948263936

  • Walking a Tightrope on Ukraine: How India Is Balancing Ties to Russia & United States | Democracy Now!

    Walking a Tightrope on Ukraine: How India Is Balancing Ties to Russia & United States | Democracy Now!
    — Read on www.democracynow.org/2022/10/6/cpiml_kavita_krishnan_india_russia_ukraine

  • Ukraine: Morning News Roundup

    THURSDAY 6 OCTOBER 2022

    UKRAINE

    Intelligence Matters Podcast

    • Putin gave a speech essentially saying that Russia would not give back these annexed territories and Ukraine has only one option, negotiate.
    • The military situation on the ground is disastrous for the Russians
    • Escalation is likely as Putin sees that he will not get what he wants.
    • Putin is putting on a brave front with public displays but saying something does not make it so.  The situation continues to deteriorate for him.  Bloggers are calling out Putin, military bloggers, former intelligence officers.  They are criticizing the annexation. 
    • Zelensky has asked for accelerated admission to NATO.
    • Putin’s options are diminishing.  The compensation will likely be in using tactical weapons.
    • It is a way of striking back at a military you can’t defeat on the ground.
    • We are seven months into the war and Putin may feel that somehow, he will get an advantage using these weapons.
    • There is no succession plan.  Putin needs to keep the support of this inner circle.
    • Options if the Russians use tactical nuclear weapons:
    • Ensuring that Putin doesn’t get away with nuclear blackmail. 
    • 1) Nuclear response.  Putin needs to understand that that’s on the table.  2) Kinetic response to impose devastating military answer.  3) Combination of an economic and political price. 
    • Russia must be considered a pariah state. 
    • There are going to be surprises, but we can’t afford to be surprised.

    RUSSIA/UKRAINE UPDATE PODCAST

    • Russia is incapable of responding to three counteroffensives at the same time.
    • Surrenders in Kherson will create a cascade of Russian troops.
    • Mass surrenders may create a problem for Ukrainians.
    • Putin’s reputation has been damaged.
    • Mobilization efforts will be ineffective due to corruption and the breaking of the social contract with the Russian people.
    • Conscripts are being sent in with vital training or equipment.
    • There is a heightened risk of terror attacks in central Ukraine.
    • Troops that were rushed to the front in the past week have not improved Russia’s position.

    NYT

    • Putin has announced that Russia is “nationalizing” the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and intends to start running it.
    • Private arms sales to Ukraine, allowed and facilitated by the Biden administration, open a “wild west” area of potential graft and corruption. 

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • Seven missile strikes overnight at Zaporizhia.

    KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • Russia continues to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
    • Belarus has sent wagons of ammunition to Russian troops.
    • EU adopts a new package of sanctions against Russia.
    • Twice as many draft-age Russians left the country than joined the army.

    THE MOSCOW TIMES

    • A senior Kremlin-installed official in Kherson region criticized publicly Russian military officials.  In a video posted on Telegram, he suggested that the acting governor “should simply shoot himself like a real officer.”
    • Russian regions experiencing the highest rates of poverty have mobilized the largest share of conscripts.
    • Balarus President Lukashenko has banned price increases amidst galloping inflation.
    • Mobilized Russian soldiers will not be reimbursed for medical supplies they bring to the front with them.
    • Jailed Kremlin critic Kara-Murza faces new treason charges.  He was jailed on charges of disobeying police orders, then “discrediting” the Armed Forces and now charges of cooperating with an “undesirable” foreign NGO.
    • Kara-Murza survived two poisoning attempts and like Navalny returned to Russia.
    • Georgia is struggling to deal with thousands of Russians seeking refuge.

    Tail Ends

    • The United States is considering sending aid to Cuba in response to hurricane damage.
    • Russian soldiers are abandoning equipment but taking loot as they retreat.

  • Private arms sales open another door for corruption.

    www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/world/europe/ukraine-private-arms-deals.html

  • Ukraine: Deliberate Irresponsible Energy Policy Decisions by the West

    4 October 2022

    Ukraine Notes

    The Telegraph Podcast, “Ukraine: the Latest.”

    Military Updates

    • The Russian defensive line in the south towards Kherson is collapsing at an “incredible rate.”
    • The Ukrainians are trying to maintain operational secrecy to protect the offensive.
    • The Russians are retreating in masse.  They maintain that they are just exhausted. 
    • Russians like to base themselves in towns.  There is therefore a lack of especially mobile infantry surrounding the towns. 
    • It is being said that the Ukrainians are painting Zs on their vehicles to fool the Russians.  This means that they are able to maintain tracking of those vehicles and know that they are friendly rather than Russian.
    • This would be a high-tech tracking system.
    • Russians are saying that Ukraine is massing troops for an attack on Melitopol, near, just south of Zaporizhzhia.
    • Melitopol has been held by the Russians since the beginning of the war.  If so, the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the land bridge to Kherson.  They are trying to cut off the supply route into Melitopol.
    • This is a tactic that the Ukrainians have used successfully.
    • This won’t be a quick tumbling of the Russian lines.
    • The war is likely to slow down soon because of the weather.
    • Kherson is a lot more defended than other cities. 
    • Zelensky announced liberation of territory.  There is liberation of territory in the South.
    • Western officials are saying that Ukrainians can wreak havoc within the Russian chain of command.  The Ukrainians seem to be calling the tune in the south. 

    Nuclear Tensions

    • There are reports that a train involved in nuclear offensives has been seen moving toward Ukraine. 
    • This train belongs to the unit involved in nuclear offensives.
    • It is likely an example of Putin attempting to show that his remarks about the nuclear threat are serious. He wants the west to know that this is a feasible possibility.
    • It is probably that Putin wants this movement to be noted by the West, as part of the threat.
    • In Washington Post, the editorial board has posted information about the significance of the tactical nuclear weapons.  It includes an analysis of Pentagon planning.
    • If tactical weapons are going to be used, it would be days of maneuvering that we could see before an attack.  We are not seeing these movements.
    • It is the political significance that is important in the movements we can see at the moment.
    • Patraus (former CIA) has indicated that there would be a massive conventional response to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
    • The evidence would suggest that the Russian elite inner circle is not supportive of the use of nuclear weapons.  So, Putin would be risking his own political survival if he tries to take this step.
    • Western officials have played down the threat of the use of nuclear weapons and the movement of the trains. 
    • (Note: Iodide pills have been distributed to Ukrainians around Zaporizhzhia.)
    • The Pentagon is doing simulations modeling what might happen if Russia used nuclear weapons.  There is talk about destroying the Russian Black Sea fleet. 
    • There are huge risks for Putin to this step.  This would put his personal survival at risk from even his own people.  The Russian elite currently support Putin.  But, this support is not concrete.

    Mobilization

    • The decree was to call up at least 300,000 Russian to fight in Ukraine. 
    • Russians lawyers are working to advise people who are called up. 
    • Hundreds of thousands of men have fled the country to Georgia and Finland.   Many have gone into hiding or are arguing that their religion prevents them fighting.
    • There are videos of people advising about breaking limbs to avoid military service.
    • The morale levels are not good.  There is Russian military kit on the Russian version of ebay.  This indicates that Russian commanders are stealing kit and putting it on Ebay for sale.  The systematic corruption inside the Russian military is significant.
    • Military kit is important as well as warm clothing, sleeping bags, tents.  Lack of this will affect morale.
    • Analysts are still unsure what the purpose of the call up is.  Is it just to fill in lost troops or are they there for developing new military units.  Some have only two weeks of training.
    • They aren’t going to have the tactical combat knowledge that the Ukrainians have.
    • These men are cannon fodder rather than highly trained forces.

    Musk

    • Suggested a peace plan. 
    • The reaction has been swift and intense. 
    • Musk has been popular in Ukraine because of technology he has provided.
    • He proposed UN supervised elections in the four occupied regions. 
    • Zelensky has issued an extremely critical response.
    • Another Ukrainian official said: “It is not a voting issue.”
    • Musk is delusional about the ability to ensure a fair vote.
    • The Kremlin has said that they see this as a possible step.  They are seeking an off-ramp to this conflict.  The acceptance that they will not take the entirety of Ukraine is very significant.
    • Musk’s thinking is common to a thread of thinking in the West.  This is becoming increasingly spoken about.
    • This is a line of thought echoed by others that Ukraine will never prevail completely, that the costs of the war to the West are increasing, the effort is not possible to sustain.  There are misunderstandings in the remarks of Musk.
    • Musk is saying that should Russia fully mobilize, they would be in an extremely strong position.  There is no reason that a general mobilization will shift the military situation on the ground. This argument is built on a false premise, that the war is unwinnable by the Ukrainians.
    • Ukrainians are extremely anxious that this is becoming a popular line of thinking by those in the West. 
    • (Telegraph article by Fallon on this issue, arguing against Musk.  He is expected to argue that there is no sustainable peace plan that doesn’t involve a total ejection of Putin from Ukraine.  A frozen conflict is a myth.  Putin will seek to continue when his hand is stronger.  He has to be defeated decisively.)
    • It is not what Musk thinks that is important, but the line of thinking that may be becoming more popular.
    • Zelensky has just signed a decree refusing negotiations with Putin. 
    • Putin signed the Minsk agreement.  It froze the conflict and it allowed Putin to build up a stronger foothold in the occupied areas without having to use troops.  The idea that Ukraine would again, leave the conflict in a standstill for Putin to strengthen his position, is ridiculous.
    • The Ukrainians want to retake all their territory including Crimea.  They intend to win on the battlefield.

    Energy

    • Winter is approaching.  There is a meeting between Germany and French leaders.  There is growing fear that Germany will use its muscle to outbid the rest of the EU for gas supplies.
    • Germany is coming under pressure to help the rest of the EU.  Italy and France are accusing Germany of putting its own interests above that of the rest of the EU by outbidding them for gas supplies.
    • The positive thing is that there is a discussion being had.
    • There is an attempt to stop Russia from profiting from the higher price of oil.  They are pushing a price cap. 
    • The severity of the winter will be crucial.  A mild winter could help.  Russia has historically relied on winter as a weapon. 
    • A severe winter could be catastrophic in terms of energy.  It would also be bad for the military situation on the ground. 
    • There must be a movement away from Russian fossil fuel not only for this winter but for the next.
    • The southern members of the EU were told by Germany during and after the financial crisis that they should bear the brunt of their bad decision making and implement austerity measures.  Now, the southern countries feel that Germany is not bearing the true cost of its own bad decisions about energy. 
    • It has to be stressed that we are in the position we are in because of deliberate policies by Western leaders over a generation or more.  There has been a lack of priority given to energy security in general.  It’s not just the decision by Germany and building Nordstream 2.
    • Aside from the factor of the treat of nuclear weapons, western leaders have given Putin this weapon of the threat of energy disruption.
    • THIS IS AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT POINT.
    • Power was sacrificed not only to Russia but to the Middle East.  These decisions reflect an arrogance that we are now going to have to recon with.  Joe Barnes.

    Conclusion

    • We have escaped nuclear escalation and the use of nuclear weapons twice narrowly, the Cuban missile crisis and in 1983, one man manning the Russian nuclear station was given permission to launch a strike.  He did not. 
    • These decisions are automated now. 
    • What Putin is doing is “unbelievable reckless.”
    • In northeastern Kherson the Russian front is collapsing.  Ukraine might be soon in the position to encircle Russian troops there. 

  • CPAC, Russia, Transnational Crime

    Monday 3 October 2022

    The Transnational Crime Syndicate 

    CPAC is now openly distributing Russian propaganda.  In a tweet now removed from their website, CPAC criticized “gift giving to Ukraine.”  In this tweet a graphic showed eastern provinces of Ukraine as Russian territory and included a Russian flag.  CPAC is claiming that the tweet was “unauthorized.”

    In a tweet issued as explanation for the first tweet, CPAC claimed that Trump had “averted” a Ukrainian “crisis” and “American taxpayers should not be shouldering the vast majority of the cost” of the war against Ukraine.

    CPAC blamed a “time zone difference” for the tween and their failure to remove it. 

    CPAC held their last convention in Orban’s far-right Hungary. 

    Tucker Carlson is a regular purveyor of Russian propaganda.

    The right is part of a transnational crime syndicate that includes Putin and the Russian oligarchy.

    Commenting on MSNBC, James Stavridis characterized himself as being “perplexed” by CPAC’s position.  He then claimed that there is “bipartisan” support for the Ukrainians.  Stavridis argued that the tweet “implies a division” that he doesn’t believe exists.  But this division certainly does exist and has been adequately demonstrated.  Tucker Carlson regularly broadcasts Russian propaganda about the war.

    The CPAC tweet stayed up for 12 hours complete with graphics.  The tweet accused the Ukrainians of occupying their own territory and the graphic included a Russian flag.

    The failure, or refusal of commentators like Stavridis to recognize the fact that Republicans have chosen to be part of a transnational crime syndicate, enemies of democracy, supporters of autocracy and corporate crime ensures that the fight against the enemy will be that much harder.

    Corporate Media

    The corporate media is falling all over itself tonight condemning the “racist” comments about Mitch McConnell’s wife.  As usual, they are covering the soap opera and therefore covering up the crime.  What they should be covering is the corruption that was involved with Elaine Chao’s administration and McConnell’s and Chow’s corrupt financial connections.  

    (Note: Mitch McConnell deserves everything he gets for climbing into bed with Donald Trump.)

    Twitter Chatter

    • People are trying to get as much money as they can out of banks in Russia.
    • Men are trying to leave the country to go anywhere just to get away from the draft.
    • The Russian newscaster who held up a sign protesting the invasion of Ukraine has disappeared and is being sought.

    MSNBC

    • Needed weapons for Ukraine are being held up by the Biden Administration.
    • The fresh hell of a new Supreme Court session is upon us. 

    Ukraine

    • Zelensky is warning the west that waiting for Putin to use a nuclear weapon before responding is irresponsible.
    • Putin has claimed four Ukrainian territories as Russian and now vows to use nuclear weapons to defend this “Russian territory.”
    • Almost as soon as Putin claimed the territory, Ukraine took back parts that Russia had occupied briefly.
    • The Ukrainian offensive is crucially important and must be supported before the weather changes and it becomes easier for Russian gains to become the status quo.
    • Ukraine is moving in the east to recapture territory and also, significantly, in the southeast.
    • A Ukrainian hospital has been attacked, almost destroyed, in Kharkiv.
    • Lithuania supports Ukraine joining NATO.

    The Sell-Out of America

    • Congress went home for YET ANOTHER recess before voting on a bill that has immense support from people but (wonder why?) not Congress: a total ban on members of Congress trading stocks, bonds and other investment products.  (See The Nation)

  • The Transnational Crime Syndicate

    Monday 3 October 2022

    The Transnational Crime Syndicate 

    CPAC is now openly distributing Russian propaganda.  In a tweet now removed from their website, CPAC criticized “gift giving to Ukraine.”  In this tweet a graphic showed eastern provinces of Ukraine as Russian territory and included a Russian flag.  CPAC is claiming that the tweet was “unauthorized.”

    In a tweet issued as explanation for the first tweet, CPAC claimed that Trump had “averted” a Ukrainian “crisis” and “American taxpayers should not be shouldering the vast majority of the cost” of the war against Ukraine.

    CPAC blamed a “time zone difference” for the tween and their failure to remove it. 

    CPAC held their last convention in Orban’s far-right Hungary. 

    Tucker Carlson is a regular purveyor of Russian propaganda.

    The right is part of a transnational crime syndicate that includes Putin and the Russian oligarchy.

  • Burkina Faso coup fuels fears of growing Russian mercenary presence in Sahel | Burkina Faso | The Guardian

    North Africa analysts believe new leader Ibrahim Traoré may seek help from Moscow in fight against Islamic extremists
    — Read on www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/burkina-faso-coup-fears-growing-russian-mercenary-presence-sahel-north-africa

    Russian mercenaries may be poised for further expansion in Africa’s strategically important Sahel region after the latest coup d’etat in the region, western officials and analysts fear.

    The coup leader ” is likely to invite assistance from Moscow to boost the country’s flailing struggle against Islamic extremists, which has forced 2 million people to flee their homes and killed thousands.”

    Over the weekend, hundreds of protesters, some waving Russian flags, lit fires, tore down barbed wire and threw stones at the French embassy in the capital, Ouagadougou, and attacked a French cultural centre in the city of Bobo-Dioulasso.

    The coup comes amid a new push by Russia to win influence and gain access to valuable raw materials in sub-Saharan Africa in recent months, after years of careful if opportunistic efforts across the continent.

  • Capitol Flight: How Dems Dropped the Stock Ban | The Nation

    Democratic Senate candidates in Georgia Jon Ossoff and the Rev. Raphael Warnock hammered Perdue and Loeffler nonstop on the skeevy trades that fall. Improbably, both Ossoff and Warnock barely eked out wins in the traditionally ruby-red state, delivering Democrats the party-line votes they needed to pass all those other pieces of legislation.
    — Read on www.thenation.com/article/politics/capitol-flight-how-dems-dropped-the-stock-ban/

  • Russia, Nuclear Threats

    Dmitri A. Medvedev, a former Russian president and the hawkish vice chairman of Mr. Putin’s Security Council, laid out that thesis this past week in a post on the Telegram social network. If Russia were forced to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, he argued, it was unlikely that NATO would intervene militarily because of the risk that a direct attack on Russia could lead to all-out nuclear war.

    putin “has insistedthat in the event of a nuclear war, “we would go to paradise as martyrs, while they would simply perish.”

    The chance that Putin would strike out of the blue seems very low,” said Graham T. Allison, the author of a seminal 1971 book about the Cuban Missile Crisis, “Essence of Decision.” “But as Kennedy said back then, the plausible scenario is if a leader is forced to choose between a catastrophic humiliation and a roll of the dice that might yield success.”

    Mr. Allison suspects Mr. Putin will not face that choice unless Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russian forces out of the areas Mr. Putin annexed on Friday.

    For that reason, the next few weeks could prove a particularly dangerous time, a range of American and European officials agree. But Mr. Putin is not likely to use a nuclear weapon immediately. His initial steps, according to the officials, would probably involve a sabotage campaign in Europe, attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure or targeting senior officials in Kyiv. Some officials wonder if the attacks on the Nord Stream pipelinesmay have been a first step — though it is not clear Russia was behind that sabotage.“

    www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/world/europe/washington-putin-nuclear-threats.html

  • Nuclear threats

    “officials in Washington are gaming out scenarios should President Vladimir V. Putin decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon to make up for the failings of Russian troops in Ukraine.”

    www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/world/europe/washington-putin-nuclear-threats.html