Man known as ‘Putin’s chef’ touring jails looking for physically fit murderers and thieves, offering presidential pardons and a salary
— Read on www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/07/wagner-group-recruiting-convicts-join-militia-promise-free/
-
-
International Atomic Energy Agency head responds to reports of strikes on the contested Zaporizhzhia plant on Friday
— Read on www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/08/06/real-risk-nuclear-disaster-fighting-around-ukraine-power-plant/ -
WEDNESDAY 10 AUGUST 2022
UKRAINE UPDATE: UKRAINE: THE LATEST Podcast , The Telegrah
“Nobody’s going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians.”
- 168 day.
- Latest News
- There was an attack in Crimea yesterday. This was away from the front line. This was at a military air base. There were Russian tourists at the beach and they posted photographs of the blast.
- Much of the coverage has been kept from occupied regions of Ukraine.
- The Russians claimed that it was an ammunition fire. This does happens because the Russians don’t take care of their munitions. There is a small chance that it was just a fire. We don’t think that was what happened.
- We think it was a Ukrainian attack. But, we don’t think they have the munitions to reach such a distance. The US has publicly stated that they have not supplied weapons that can reach this far. It is thought that it some kind of modified armament. Perhaps it is a new ballistic missile we have not seen before. There is also speculation that it is partisan activity.
- This is a very long range strike. It may well influence the fight for the Donbas.
- Medvedev has said that any strikes on Russian soil would be “judgement day.”
- The first time the war has been brought to Crimea. Raises questions of how long Putin can keep saying that this is a special operation and not a war.
- Zelensky has said that the war would not be over until Ukraine recaptured Crimea. It would be a huge undertaking. You have to go over a bridge to get there. Kirtz bridge?
- Russia is struggling to find troops. This ups the stakes.
- If Crimea is non-negotiable, i.e., if the Russians would mobilize their entire forces. We need to consider the potential for nuclear strikes. Is the international community prepared for a “small scale” nuclear strike? Would all Russian oil and gas be cut off? Would China be pressured to turn off contact?
- This is not being discussed enough. It needs to be made clear to Russia what would happen. We need to take the degree Russia considers Crimea Russian theirs, seriously. Unfortunately, Crimea needs to be seen differently.
- In the Washington Post, there was a comment made by an Ukrainian official that the attack on Crimea was by them but not using a US supplied weapon.
- Ukrainians mined old railroad tracks because they knew that the Russians had old maps. The Russians used the rails and were blown up.
- Russian troops were moved to the South and suddenly their rear was attacked, the military base that was supposed to protect them in their offensive.
- The Russians fight an old-school war. Smash up the place with artillery and then move in the soldiers. The Ukrainians are doing a good job outsmarting them.
- Takes away some of the air power that could be used in the Kherson region. Think it is part of the wider plan.
- Ukraine has been good at pushing the edges in terms of weaponry that will be supplied, pushing for more and more powerful weapons.
- We are expecting a statement from the Russians in terms of a splashy attack.
- There is going to be immense international pressure for there to be a negotiated settlement in the Fall because of the impact of gas and oil supplies. Ukraine needs to show now what they are capable of. Ukraine still has the capability of making this kind of strike.
- Ukrainians know that any negotiated settlement with the Russians won’t be worth the paper it is written on. This is true unless there are specific safeguards from the international community.
- Any territory held will be used as a launching pad for future Russian attacks.
- This attack on Crimea is an important morale booster for Ukraine.
- Amnesty International Report
- Some of the employees have resigned over the report. The report is absurd. They see all war as evil and look at everything through that lens. It is an idealistic view and one that has nothing to do with reality.
- It is not a feasible moral position.
- The co-founder of Amnesty International Sweden has resigned.
- Questions:
- Why are we not seeing a lot of UN intervention in this war? The UN sees themselves as brokering a peace and trying to see that things don’t escalate. The work they do they have to do behind the scenes. That’s what they would say.
- The UN’s purpose is to provide a table for negotiations.
- Some of their interventions have been horrible. What is the point of this institution if Russia is on the Security Council with a veto?
-
MONDAY 8 AUGUST 2022
Flashpoint Ukraine (8/8/22) Podcast
- Zaporizhzhia Power Plant disaster warned of by Ukraine
- There was an attack on the nuclear power plant by Russia.
- The Russians are, of course, blaming the Ukrainians for attacking their own power plant.
- There is fighting going on around the plant and the Russians are running the plant.
- There have been explosions near the exterior power line. Some transformers were shut down. There was shelling of parts of the plant. Urgent repairs are needed. 6 August, Russians hitting site.
- Apparently, they aimed directly at spent fuel tanks stored nears. Radiation monitoring sensors were affected.
- The Russians announced that they had mines near the plant and were prepared to blow it up. The plant will be “either Russia’s or nobody’s.” Ukraine has confirmed that the area is mined.
- The ultimate goal is to disconnect the station from Ukraine’s power system and to start using the power for Crimea. Technically, this is not easy, but it is possible.
- Russian Offensive
- Troops have been moved from Donbas to the south. In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia you can see that the Russians are getting ready for offensive acts.
- There has been fighting in Melitopol. Russian soldiers killed.
- There is still a lot of shelling in the Donbas.
- There has been an attack on the Odesa region launched from the Black Sea.
- All of Odesa ports are functioning. A vessel which left is headed toward Italy. Another is going to the Netherlands.
- Amnesty International
- Said that the Ukrainians were endangering civilians. The head of Amnesty Ukraine office resigned over the accusation.
- Amnesty says it stands by its report.
- Anthony Blinken in Africa
- Lavrov has just left defending Russia’s invasion.
-
MONDAY 5 AUGUST 2022
Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast The Telegraph
- Visits to Taiwan and Ukraine.
- Strategic ambiguity is practiced by states. A common terminology is used, but radically different meanings are understood. Both can say we agree on the “One China” policy and have different definitions of that.
- Taiwan was drawn into the American umbrella due to the Korean war. The leader of North Korea got permission from Stalin was gotten and approval of China for an invasion of South Korea by the North. The Americans were trying to pursue this strategic ambiguity with regard to South Korea. The Sec. Of State made a speech noting countries that were in the American defensive realm. He left out South Korea.
- The Americans were looking to withdraw their troops from South Korea. Truman did withdraw troops despite the warnings from the CIA that to do so would probably result in an invasion.
- American strategic deterrence failed.
- After that there was a hardening in the American strategic approach. Taiwan was drawn into the sphere.
- Since then, there was knowledge that the Americans would intervene should there by interference in Taiwan.
- Biden has said on multiple occasions say that the U.S. could come to the defense of Taiwan.
- The US has been arming Taiwan. There are concerns that Taiwan relies too much on the U.S. and does not build its own defenses sufficiently.
- When you let the strength of your deterrence wilt, when you let it be believed that your support for an ally might not be strong, you see others intervene.
- It’s much cheaper to deter China from invading Taiwan than to deal with it after they do.
- There was a lot of criticism of Biden when he made clear lines for the Kremlin on what they would and wouldn’t do. The example is announcing that they wouldn’t provide a “no-fly zone.”
- There is a danger in being unclear about your intentions. There is a good argument that had the Americans been stronger about stating their intentions about defending Ukraine, the invasion might not have happened.
- Truman made it clear in the Korean war that the US was not going to use nuclear weapons. That clarity in intention may have greatly shaped the tone of the cold war and the reluctance of other countries to use nuclear weapons.
- The Republican Party in the US
- In the past the Republican party was squarely supportive of NATO. Then, there was Trump. There was talk about ditching NATO
- Hawley voted against allowing Sweden and Finland into NATO. He was criticized by other Republicans like Ted Cruz.
- Ukraine has revitalized NATO.
- Pompeo want to Taiwan with Pelosi. We may have relative consensus on foreign policy. The problem is what happens if Trump runs again.
- In Europe
- Le Pen has been saying that sanctions were good for Russia and bad for Europe.
- Turkey has always straddled east and west. Recently they have brokered the deal about grain. Some have seen this as a betrayal.
- Turkey is using this to gain influence. A few years there was an attempted coup. It has become more Islamist and more autocratic. In some ways this undermines the NATO project.
- NATO is in the position of criticizing other countries for anti-democratic tendencies and then Turkey is a NATO member.
- Turkey could have used the situation to lurch more toward the east. Probably for self-interest it sees that Russia will come out of this situation badly.
- Erdogan is facing elections soon. He will have to fight to have the political control he has. But Turkey is in such a strategic position, especially in the Black Sea.
- (Book: How to Hide an Empire)
- US
- The Democrats are likely to lose control in 2022. Biden will be in the position of having to issue Executive Orders to get anything done.
- The American public had lost its confidence in interventionism, and then the Ukraine war started.
- Russia
- Russia has had staggering population loss. It is a society in decline.
- Peskov has said that Russia is haunted by two holes in its population, the second WW and the break up of the Soviet Union.
- The Kremlin in characterized by “severe paranoia.” Putin would like an authoritarian state, to observe every citizen, have every citizen be an informant.
- The USSR was not plugged into the world economy. Russia is a country characterized by brain drain, reliant on oil and gas to survive economically.
- When you have a brain drain, there is a culture of resentment. Those left behind become resentful of those who have gone to the West. That decline makes you deeply pessimistic. This makes you vulnerable to the strong man appeal.
- A great many Ukrainians have been deported to Russia.
- Much of the apparatus for implementing a more suppressive state has been put in place since the invasion of Ukraine. The censorship of the press, the control of knowledge is essential. A lot of this has been put in place comprehensively since the invasion.
-
Sen. Bernie Sanders Slams Climate Bill’s Tax Breaks and Subsidies for Fossil Fuel Companies | Democracy Now!
— Read on www.democracynow.org/2022/8/4/headlines/sen_bernie_sanders_slams_climate_bills_tax_breaks_and_subsidies_for_fossil_fuel_companies -
‘I could die any second’: 911 call, court records tell a harrowing story about Black Hammer standoff in Georgia
— Read on www.ajc.com/news/investigations/i-could-die-any-second/V6DIBNPG35DBBPDXK42ZRESLSY/ -
2 AUGUST 2022
UKRAINE: THE LATEST Podcast from The Telegraph
“Nobody is going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians.”
It was so loud and I found my granny in the bathroom. The cat was so scared. I just found the granny and the cat in the bathroom. Paraphrased from an interview with a young woman in Ukraine.
- Day 159
- Last week on Thursday there was an attack in Donbas, in occupied territories. They were holding 50 prisoners of war some of them from the Mariupol plant. Fifty prisoners of war were killed. This is against the Geneva Convention.
- They should have been removed from the combat zone. (Note: Other reports said that the evidence was that the men were moved specifically to this warehouse that was exploded).
- Russians are blaming the US supplied HIMARS for the attack.
- This was a known holding place for prisoners of war. There is no reason the Ukrainians would have attacked. It was a precise strike.
- HIMARs would have destroyed the entire place. Part of the building is still in tact. The suggestion is that it was a Russian thermobaric weapon, which causes widespread fire.
- If these men were from the Avostol plant, and they went home, they would have been celebrated as heroes. The Russians couldn’t handle the propaganda victory, is the supposition. (Note: Other reports have noted that if these men were receiving inhumane treatment, this eliminated the evidence of that treatment. It also disposed of the problem of dealing with fifty captured men.)
- In a second attack, there was footage of a castration of a Ukrainian prisoner of war with a box cutting knife. It went out on a Russian TV channel.
- There are war crimes all along the chain of command.
- Grain
- The first ship left with grain from Ukraine, from the port of Odesa. Russia was receiving pressure to help alleviate some of the world food shortage.
- Sixteen ships are ready to go.
- The plan is for these ships to form caravans and to leave together.
- The Russians were claiming a drone attack in Crimea.
- What we should expect is that this will continue and then there will be some “mistake” or “accident” and Russia will blame Ukraine for mining the waters.
- Ukrainian grain tycoon killed with his wife in shelling.
- Serbia
- Border problems with Kosovo.
- Arms depot going up in flames in Bulgaria. Bulgaria expelled a Russian diplomat.
- Russia is trying to hit back. Things aren’t going their way with the grain, they have been forced to allow the grain to go through and they are going to a different place to attack.
- In the Donbas field, things have moved little in the past few weeks.
- Meanwhile in the Kherson region, Ukrainian forces are moving back. This is not a large offensive, but it is a counterattack.
- Russia wants to take the South so that Ukraine cannot be a successful state.
- The Ukrainians may be building up in the South for an offensive, or maybe trying to make Russians wear themselves out moving troops back and forth between the east and the south.
- The impact of the Russian invasion is also on Africa and the Middle East. This first shipment is going to Lebanon. Lebanon is in a financial crisis. Inflation in the UK is 9%, in Lebanon it’s over 200%. Prices have tripled in a year.
- The grain market is also being affected by drought. Wheat yields will go down in countries like France.
- It’s so crucially important to keep this grain corridor from Ukraine going.
- If a ship is lost it will affect the willingness of insurance companies to give insurance.
- Russian Economy
- The situation is worse than the Kremlin is admitting.
- (Note: Foreign Affairs article about the effectiveness of sanctions.)
- Growth and inflation are bad. The narrative has developed that Russia is winning the financial conflict. People have been making this argument that the Russian economy is resilient. The strength of the ruble is noted. But, if you can’t spend that ruble, it’s not much of an indicator. Imports have dropped in Russia.
- The Kremlin is reducing the amount of financial information they are releasing. Yale study indicates that the economy has been disastrously affected.
- 1,000 western companies have left, it is estimated.
- The Kremlin has made the economy look better than it is.
- Undercover market for Russian oil. Ships offloading oil in the middle of the ocean (dangerous) to get cut level Russian oil.
- Chinese companies are trying to get their hands on this oil. Chinese has bought sanctioned oil before. Iranian oil. Big Chinese companies are acting with the implicit approval of Beijing.
- Ukrainian Economy
- Ukraine is going to have to go the IMF for funds. It is surprising that this bail out has not been already approved.
- This bail out will keep them from having to default on their debts.
- Final thoughts:
- Russia is unlikely to allow the grain corridor to operate for long.
-
Uuuuu
The exiled Ukrainian governor of Kherson, Dmytro Butrii, said on Monday that some 46 villages in the province had been liberated but some of them had been nearly completely destroyed and were still under Russian shelling.
The ship carrying grain that left the Ukrainian port of Odesa on Monday, the first since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, also carried fragile hopes that it might stem a global tide of hunger. Ukraine’s bulging stores hold 20 million tons of grain — trillions of trapped calories with the potential to relieve a food crisis that the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, has warned could last years.
But experts say the immediate impact of Ukrainian grain exports on the global food crisis may be modest — if it is even felt at all.Yet funding for humanitarian and development aid lags far behind the need. In Yemen, where 60 percent of the population relies on food aid, aid workers have slashed rations to make them go further.
“This is the only country where I’ve worked where you take food from the hungry to feed the starving,” said Richard Ragan, the World Food Program director in Yemen.And they say that the scale of the crisis — years in the making and fueled by wars, climate shocks and the economic devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic — is so immense that no single advance would be a silver bullet. As many as 50 million people in 45 countries are teetering on the brink of famine, according to the U.N.’s World Food Program. In the 20 worst-hit countries, the situation is likely to worsen substantially by the end of the summer, it said.
Nikopol, controlled by the Ukrainians, lies on the west bank of the Dnipro River. On the opposite bank sits a gigantic nuclear power plant — Europe’s largest — that the Russian Army captured in March. The Russians have been firing from the cover of the Zaporizhzhia station since mid-July, Ukrainian military and civilian officials said, sending rockets over the river at Nikopol and other targets.
Law, Power and Justice 