twitter.com/moscowtimes/status/1676693795168047104
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www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/world/asia/wagner-uprising-china-russia.html
Excerpts
Xi Jinping needs Vladimir Putin to remain in power, and Russia to maintain stability, to help uphold the countries’ shared interests and to keep challenging the United States.
…the Wagner private military group waged an insurrection in Russia that has shaken Mr. Putin’s image of invulnerability. Close watchers of China say that the mutiny, short-lived as it was, could lead Mr. Xi to hedge a close relationship with Russia that had already exposed Beijing to global criticism and threatened some of its interests abroad.
China views Russia as a necessary partner in challenging the global order dominated by the United States. But Mr. Putin’s appetite for risk — seen in his invasion of Ukraine and his reliance on private armies — has forced Beijing to defend its bond with Russia in the face of Western pressure.
Mr. Putin’s decision to grant sanctuary in Belarus to Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the uprising, smacked of a compromise rather than the act of a strongman with consolidated power.
Downsizing the number of troops along the border has allowed China to prepare for the greater potential for conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea or with India,”
Mr. Xi has also been focused on consolidating power at home. Starting in 2015, the Chinese leader began a major overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army to strengthen his grip over the military by ousting commanders deemed disloyal or corrupt and elevating his allies, in many ways to avoid the questions of loyalty Mr. Putin faces today.
Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, its trade with China has hit record highs
Chinese state media has downplayed the significance of what it called the “Wagner incident” and praised Mr. Putin for defusing the crisis
From a security perspective, this war has not enhanced China’s security but has subjected China to more security threats,”
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www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/opinion/putin-prigozhin-russia.html
Russia notes. Saturdau 1 july
Putin took in the show from the yacht of Yuri Kovalchuk, the president’s closest friend and one of the country’s most influential oligarchs on Saturday, June 24 — the day Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, launched his mutiny.
this is the clearest evidence yet that the president is divorced from reality. He still believes that he has everything under control and that Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion has not changed the political situation in any way. But he is mistaken
Mr. Putin’s system of rule simply can’t go on much longer.
Mr. Putin was certainly culpable in allowing the situation to get out of hand. First, he encouraged Mr. Prigozhin, tacitly allowing him to recruit widely — including from prisons — for the war in Ukraine and to take a prominent position on the battlefield, particularly in the fight for Bakhmut. The calculation was not strictly military. Mr. Prigozhin was clearly elevated to act as a counterweight to the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the military generals, ensuring they didn’t become too popular. So when Mr. Prigozhin started criticizing the military leadership — often in explicit, expletive-ridden diatribes — the president did nothing to stop it.
But it soon became a problem. Mr. Prigozhin, riding a wave of popularity, became increasingly personal and insulting in his denunciations of Mr. Shoigu. Yet Mr. Putin failed to mediate. Though he arranged a meeting between the two men in February, he did not, according to a source in the presidential administration, say anything specific in the conversation, hoping the gathering itself was a sufficient warning to stop the public attacks. Mr. Prigozhin did not take the hint, however, and continued to fulminate against the military commanders.
In the weeks after the meeting, Mr. Prigozhin traveled the country as if he were a politician running an election campaign, meeting with potential supporters and criticizing the war effort. In this again he was unhindered by the Kremlin, which knew of his plans but chose to do nothing about them. As Mr. Prigozhin grew in popularity, even pulling in a former deputy defense minister as a deputy commander for Wagner — a clear sign he had high-ranking admirers among the security forces — Mr. Putin kept to himself. Sources close to him tell me he hasn’t met with Mr. Prigozhin for months.
This silence was crucial. In early June, when Mr. Shoigu sought to clamp down on private militias like Wagner by making all mercenaries sign a contract with the army, Mr. Prigozhin couldn’t get in touch with the president to object. In the language of Russian bureaucracy, this signals the highest degree of disfavor. A source close to the president told me Mr. Putin could easily have prevented the uprising if he had just talked to Mr. Prigozhin or at least instructed someone in the administration to do so. Instead, without access to the Kremlin and fearing the loss of his autonomy, Mr. Prigozhin embarked on his aborted uprising.
after a deal brokered by President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus — who has known Mr. Prigozhin for decades — the Wagner chief is in Belarus. Exile in the Central African Republic, where the Wagner group has a military base, is reportedly in the cards.
Despite Mr. Putin’s promises to pardon those involved in the rebellion, repression of the so-called patriotic camp is surely to come. Until now, such figures — hard-liners operating largely on the Telegram social messaging app, who generally support Mr. Prigozhin — could criticize the authorities with some impunity. Now it has become obvious that this hard-right, fascist wing is no less dangerous than the liberals persecuted by the Kremlin, not least because it includes many armed supporters. A purge is to be expected, starting with Gen. Sergei Surovikin, a former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine who is said to have known of the mutiny in advance.
The rebellion has desacralized Mr. Putin, substantially weakening his authority
the events of the weekend have shown Mr. Putin in the worst possible light: weak, vacillating, incapable of exerting control. He alone is to blame for what happened, something that is obvious to everyone except him.
By Mikhail Zygar
Mr. Zygar is a Russian journalist and the author of “War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky and the Path to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.”
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Thursday 29 June 2023 PM
Ukraine Update
Ukraine: The Latest Podcast Notes
Kramatorsk Pizza
- Death toll in the attack on the Pizza Restaurant in Kramatorsk is now 12 including two young women around 15 who were twins.
- The Russians have tried to make this sound like an attack on a military installation because soldiers eat there.
- This is not a military installation.
- In Kramatorsk, an individual has been taken into custody for assisting the Russians geolocate the Pizza Restaurant. He is believed to be a Russian Agency. He was arrested for treason.
Prigozhin’s Coup
- One of the planes shot down by Wagner in the attempted coup was a valuable part of the Russian war effort. 10 occupants were killed.
- Helicopters were also shot down.
- These are high-value assets, generally used away from the front lines to keep them safe. The psychological impact of of losing these troops will affect morale of Russian troops.
International
- Switzerland has blocked giving tanks to Ukraine. The Swiss government blocked this transfer as “inconsistent” with their neutrality. In a separate decision weeks ago, it was decided to send tanks to Germany. This changed.
- In the January Economoist, there is an article about Switzerland and its position of neutrality. The author characterizes the decision as “naïve or worse.” Switzerland recently reviewed its neutrality position and decided to keep it in place.
- Non-neutral countries resent Switzerland’s position.
- There are other countries that have a policy of neutrality.
- (Note: This list incudes Austria, Cambodia, Costa Rica, Finland, Ghana, Ireland, Japan, Liechtenstein, Malta, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Panama, Rwanda, San Marino, Serbia, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Vatical City,
- The author of the article in the Economist said: It’s one thing to be neutral when there’s not a war in Europe.
Francis Dearnley (Reporter)
Ireland
- Ireland has a neutrality position but they have participated in UN peacekeeping efforts. In terms of Ukraine, there has been a movement in the country to do more. (Note: There are a great many Ukrainians who fled because of the war living in Ireland. Ireland took more refugees than almost any other country except Poland. If I am not mistaken, they have a government stipend as do the people they live with.)
- In another article about Ireland’s neutrality, Sir Michael Fallon has noted the dangers the Ukrainian was presents to Ukraine. For example, 75% of transatlantic cables pass through Irish sea territory. Ireland is also vulnerable to Russian interference technologically. There are a lot of tech companies in Ireland.
Prigozhin’s Coup
- Russian General Surovikin, who potentially knew about the Wagner operation ahead of time has not been seen. There is speculation that he has been arrested. He had a close relationship with Prigozhin. Moscow Times, reported that they had been told Suroinkin had been arrested.
- (Note:Associated Press is reporting (2:30 PM EST 6/29/23) that he is believed to be detained. We don’t know where he is being held or if he faces any charges. He is the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine.
- Prigozhin spoke positively of Surovikin while criticizing the military brass. Prigozhin suggested that Surovikin should be appointed the General Staff chief replacing Gerasimov. Surovikin has not been seen since the start of the coup when he posted a video urging an end to it.
- Publicly Surovikin was calling for an end to the coup, but this act might have been a ruse.
- Surovikin’s deputy has reportedly been fired from the army. If true, this supports the argument that Surovikin is out of favor.
- In discussions with an exiled Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, she has said that Lukashenko could betray Prigozhin. Or, Prigozhin could betray Lukashenko. They are not allies. (Note: Look for interview)
- The decision to take Prigozhin and Wagner into Belarus, was about personal survival for Lukashenko, according to the activist. Lukashenko didn’t just act to save Putin’s face. He took care for his personal survival. Lukashenko does not want to see chaos within the Russian elite and military. If Putin goes, it will be Lukashenko next. (Note: Popular uprising against Lukashenko was put down with Putin’s help. It was rumored that Putin had a part in provoking this uprising so that he could put Lukashenko in a compromised position. Putin needed Lukashenko and Belarusian territory to launch the invasion of Ukraine.)
- The Belarusian activist is said to be the legitimate winner of the 2020 election in Belarus. There were widespread accusations of voter fraud.
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Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine, is believed to have been detained days after mercenaries staged a revolt inside Russia, two people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press on Thursday, citing U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence assessments.
— Read on www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-wagner-group-mutiny-putin-general-surovikin-armageddon-arrest-rcna91879 -
Thursday 29 June 2023
Morning News Notes:
The dreadful Mika is on Morning Joe admitting once again that she and the equally dreadful Joe Scarborough were up Trump’s ass even after he had run a campaign that should have told anybody who was sane that he was a maniac. I think they remained on the Trump train until Trump outed their adulterous affair. After that, they had to get married. I think it’s one of the most unhappy marriages in the world.
Ukraine World
- According to Ukraine military intelligence, Russia is considering carrying out a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
- PMC Wagner will no longer take part in military actions on Ukrainian territory – head of the military intelligence Budanov.
- Russians are retreating from the northern streets of Bakhmut.
- (Note: Lots of tweets trying to calculate the radius of radioactive contamination should the Russians create a nuclear disaster. Just think about living like that. Just think about the courage.)
- Exercises in preparation for an accident at the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant (ZPP) begin today.
- Speculation is that General Surovikin has been arrested and is suspected of having been aware of Prigozhin’s planned coup.
Moscow Times
- A Russian official wanted by the International Criminal Court over allegations of illegally transferring Ukrainian children to Russia met Thursday with a Vatican envoy.
- Prigozin’s troll farm and media outfit are looking for fresh ownership after the aborted coup.
- Prigozhin confirmed in February of 2023 that he was behind Russia’s network of troll farms known as the Internet Research Agency. This group expanded in 2019 into the Patriot media group with a mission to “create a favorable information space” about Russia (quote from group). Prigozhin was appointed chairman of its board of trustees.
- Patriot’s work has been paralyzed for nearly a week after police raided its St. Petersburg headquarters during Prigozhin’s march to Moscow. This was reported by The Bell, citing current and former employees. (Note: Find The Bell)
- Russia has also blocked Prigozhin’s main media outlet RIA FAN which is part of the Patriot media group. (Note: I think there are numerous smaller companies all operating under the umbrella Concord Group of Prigozhin’s)
- “There is no more central management,” The Bell quoted an anonymous Prigozhin staffer.
- The director of Patriot, Ilya Gorbunov, was negotiating with potential buyers until he abruptly disappeared, according to The Bell.
- One of the potential buyers was reported to be the private media holding National Media Group (NMG). NMG was founded by billionaire banker Yury Kovalchuk, a close friend of Putin’s. The board of NMG is chaired by retired Olympic cymnast and Putin’s rumored mistress Alina Kabaeva.
- The Bell reported that it believes that Patriot will now be “directly supervised by the presidential administration” regardless of its formal owner.
- Prigozhin was placed on the FBI’s wanted list in February 2021 on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud the US, interfering in US domestic politics and attempting to influence a presidential election. A cash reward of up to $250,000 was offered for information leading to Prigozhin’s arrest.
The Bell (2/19/23)
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/russia-blocks-access-bell-news-website-2023-02-19/
- In February 2023, The Bell was blocked for Russians. The Bell, a news outlet founded by one of Russia’s top journalists, is just the latest website to be taken offline as Moscow cracks down on independent media.
- Russia has blocked dozens of news sites since it invaded Urkaine last year.
- The Bell, which covers mainly business news was one of the few remaining independent media websites after the authorities blocked Mediazona, Meduza and Novaya Gazeta.
- (Note: Russia blocked this blog after there was significant traffic from Russia).
- Because of danger to its journalists, The Bell announced that it was going to stop covering the conflict, but it continued to publish stories about the invasion’s effects on the economy.
- Founded in 2017 by Yelizaveta Osetinskaya, a journalist who formerly edited Vedomosti an the Russian edition of Forbes.
- Both The Bell and Osetinskaya had been labelled “foreign agents” by the Russian government and therefore subject to increased scrutiny by the government.
- Several of these groups have been accused of displaying “one-sided” coverage and also “racism” against the Russian people.
