MSNBC and Glen Thrush (snake at the NYT) are promoting a narrative beneficial to Trump. They are portraying Trump as a silly old man who stole and refused to give back classified documents because he liked to save “souvenirs.”
Thrush compared classified documents, state secrets that could, if revealed, cost people lives, to a basketball player’s tennis shoe (Trump has in his New York office.)
Vox Pop Interviews with People on the Street in Moscow (Saturday) The Moscow Times (6/27/23)
“Oh, no.” Young woman walks away hurriedly and immediately.
“I don’t know. I don’t have an opinion about it.” Young man.
Middle aged man. “I’m not worried.” Reporter: Is everything under control? “of course. Everything’s great.”
Older man. “We have a president. We’ll support him.” Reporter: Did you watch Putin’s address? “No.” Reporter: Putin said it was a stab in the back. “Well, fine. But it’s not the first time, is it?” Reporter: Not the first time? “Clearly not.”
“I don’t really follow politics. So, I won’t say anything about it.” Young man.
Two young men: “As you see there’s no fuss. Everyone is walking around calmly.” Reporter: Everyone is calm? “In essence, yes. What do we have to worry about?
“I haven’t heard about anything. I don’t follow the news.” Young man.
Two young men. “What to say? Welcolm..” Laughter
Middle aged man. Reporter: What do you think about Prigozhin? “ Of course, he’s one of Russia’s field commanders who now decided to take power into his own hands. For God’s sake, it’s happened so many times (in history), but it always ends in failure.” Dismissive laugh.
Middle Aged man: “It’s a big political mystery. Not even a day has passed. The situation is unclear.
Young man. “It’s wrong to make any sort of assertion right now since there’s so much information – it’s coming quickly and changing quickly. Therefore, it’s impossible to make any sort of conclusion.
Middle aged man. “I don’t think Progozhin will make it to Moscow. Countermeasures have already been taken based on what I last saw on Telegram. Kadyrov’s people are encircling him (Prigozhin) from two sides. And so too are others.
“We are observing what’s happening. Reporter: Even if there’s fighting? Middle aged man. “I don’t think it will come to that. Yes, let’s hope it doesn’t reach that point.
Reporter: Are you worried right now. Middle aged man. “About Moscow? I’m a bit worried about Rostov on Don.”
“Emotions are fine, but the question is what to do with them?” Young woman. “What can I do right now? Leave Moscow?” Reporter: You won’t leave if Wagner enters Moscw? “Well it wouldn’t happen in an instant, it would happen gradually. I don’t know. I have a big family. I can’t just pack up and leave.
Middle Aged Man. “They’ll be blown up on the road.”
“I’m against all kinds of armed mutinies. But I also want to see justice at some point in my lifetime. Since I was born in 1985, there has been very little justice.” “We honestly need justice, guys. The people on the top are really greedy. Our country has lived within this system for many years. And life doesn’t get any better. Prices are rising, but prices aren’t even the problem. The problem is how the government treats people.
Young man, looks like student. “It reminds me of 1917.” “Most Russians probably think Prigozhin is a good person a patriot and so on.” Reporter: So Russians are the problem? “No. It’s the government. It supported Prigozhin. It supported Prigozhin and gave him everything he has, and now the chickens have come home to roost.”
Young woman. “ I don’t think I have much respect for Prigozhin after this revolt. I don’t think this should be happening. If he’s protecting Russia then why is he doing this?” Reporter: You don’t support his plan to march on Moscow? “No I don’t. For me, the situation is terrifying and it’s unclear what to expect.
Two young men. Reporter: Why has Prigozhin come to Moscow? “To change the leadership in the Defense Ministry.” Reporter: Are you worried? “No, I’m not worried. I don’t think he’ll be able to reach Moscow.” Reporter: Do you like Prigozhin? “(sighs) He’s a controversial character as if everyone else in the government.”
Three young men. “No comment.” Reporter: Why “I think it’s for the best given the current situation.” Reporter: Are you afraid of Prigozhin? “No, I’m not. Other young man. “They are saying he’s paused to think about. So there’s nothing more to think about. He’s negotiating some deal. Reporter: What kind of deal? “Beats me.” Nervous laughter.
We knew there were tensions there between Putin and Prigozhin.
Americans should not travel to Russia, those there should depart.
John Kirby, Press Conference 2:20
Upcoming NATO meeting.
“We would like to see Russia remove all their troops.”
BBC Podcast (6/25/23)
What next for Russia’s Putin
Prigozhin: “They wanted to disband the Wagner.” “Now the moment has come when the blood will be spilled. Russian blood will be spilled on one of the sides.”
We don’t know where Prigozhin is now. (Note: I saw something earlier that said he was establishing camps for his men in Belarus, but we don’t know).
What is he expected to do there? Retire? Farm? There are other parts of the Wagner group around the world.
No sign of Prigozhin.
What will happen to the mercenary troops? They have been told that they won’t be prosecuted. That is extraordinary. They will be incorporated into the Defense Ministry.
They did not want to be forced to sign contracts with the defense ministry.
What will happen if Wagner mercenaries (this includes convicts) join the regular Russian army? Will there be resentment?
Perhaps 20,000 to 30,000 committed to the war in Ukraine from Wagner.
Prigozhin is pretty popular among the families of fighters, he says things other people won’t way – like the military isn’t getting the support it needs. What do these military men and families think about Prigozhin.
(Note: Somebody wrote that Prigozhin’s main audience was the military and people associated with the military.)
Department of King’s College, London, Dr. J. McGlen
Author of “Russia’s War.”
Putin has been weakened but the extent depends on how the situation is resolved.
What happens to the military top brass. If they do, there will be unhappy people. If Putin does take them away, it will weaken the system Putin depends on. Not good options.
People will have spent days contemplating a Russia without Putin, and that is different. People are reassessing what the situation is. This is especially true for the elites.
The U-Turn? There are reports that Putin was aware that this was going to happen, unconfirmed. Other countries were aware. Couldn’t have come as a huge shock due to escalating rhetoric.
Prigozhin has been allowed to continue not just because Wagner is an effective fighting force. He is also an avenue or outlet for those who are angry with how the war is being conducted. This would explain why people in Rostov greeted Prigozhin so warmly.
It’s not just about Prigozhin. He represents certain forces among the elite. It resolved the situation and Putin is very concerned with the civil war in 1917.
Russian Editor at BBC
Looking at social media accounts believed to be associated with Wagner. They are not providing any insight into what’s going to happen. Whether rank and file will support this agreement.
Prigozhin has been prolific on his social media accounts. But since the decision to go back, he has been silent.
Wagner accounts on social media are expressing their disdain for the regular military. They are saying things like they should shoot themselves in the head. But, there are no clues as to what is going to happen.
Z commentators who support the war but not necessarily Putin are saying that the official military is to blame for the situation.
Where was the defense minister? Where is the Defense Minister?
They are asking what the Russians will do if the Ukrainians try to invade Russia like Prigozhin did.
BBC.com/news for updates
Defense Editor of the Economist
15,000 to 30,000 troops. Perhaps 5,000 participated in the insurrection.
They get relatively high wages with Wagner.
Significant friction between mercenaries and the regular army are likely.
Prigozhin has riled up his forces against a “war waged by an oligarchic elite” (Prigozhin’s words). He said the war was unnecessary and didn’t need to be waged.
Even before the revolt, Wagner troops thought the Russian military had conducted a missile strike against them.
That’s what they believe, that’s what Prigozhin has told them. So, how will they feel about joining troops who had shot and killed Wagner troops?
It will also cause the regular troops to question the reasons for pursuing the war. But, we don’t know what sort of media they are consuming. They may believe Putin that these Wagner people are committing treason. Then, they will wonder why this man who has committed treason is allowed to run off to Belarus.
One of Prigozhin’s promises was that he would no longer allow Russian troops to be used as cannon fodder.
Paints a picture of disarray and troops wondering why they are there.
Will the dissolving of Wagner hurt the Russian military effort? Not immediately. When Wagner was removed from the front lines, it allowed Ukraine to make some successes in Bakhmut.
Russia is short of reserve personnel and especially not trained personnel.
Belarus: Belarusian journalist, Atlantic Council (31:00)
He has experienced mass protests of his own people. Putin helped him out.
Lukashenko may have been just used by Putin. They were trying to save face.
Was Putin going to kill Prigozhin?
Lukashenko is a very loyal ally.
But why would Prigozhin want to go to Belarus?
Will he be safe there? Putin has said he was a traitor. Putin is not a forgiving person.
Lukashenko is also under threat. Putin treats Belarus as a back yard. Lukashenko used doesn’t have any motivation to say no.
He was currying favor with Putin. This is the way people gain favor with Putin.
People in Belarus (who in the past tried to overthrow Lukashenko) will see that Putin has been weakened. This is a threat for Lukashenko.
Wagner, BBC Correspondent
Wagner has an important presence in Africa. Until last year Wagner denied it existed.
Mali, CAR, Lybia, Sudan, Mozambique, Quino Faso
What are they doing? Brought in by governments that are unstable (Mali and CAR) to do training. The Russian government would have agreement with the country to uphold these regimes. In return, they get mineral rights.
Wagner is so well funded because they have gotten extraction rights to diamonds and gold mines.
This is not just a mercenary group, but one of the key parts of Russian foreign policy, turn on its master.
Wagner is used by the Russian government to do things it doesn’t want to take responsibility for. The government can say, this is a private company, not part of the Russian government.
Really significant for these places, Wagner.
They established bot farms to interfere in the US elections. They are thought to have bot farms across Africa to interfere in elections. (Note: Read information about Cambridge Analytica, which experimented in influencing elections in Africa as a prelude for the US interference.)
Wagner has been an incredibly useful tool for Russia and a lucrative one.
African people, some of them, would be glad to see Wagner disbanded. They have a reputation (Human Rights Watch, UN) for violent treatment of people. In Mali there are reports that Wagner killed hundreds of people.
In Mali, Wagner came in and replaced the French troops that were there. (Note: Why were French troops there?).
On the streets of Russia, comments:
We have stability.
What Prigozhin did was wrong. He stabbed us in the back (using Putin’s words).
The only source we have to confirm that Prigozhin actually went to Belarus is Peskov, Putin’s spokesman.
Prigozhin charged that his troops had been attacked by the Russian military.
He captured Rostov on Don and the Russian army’s main command center in Rostov.
After a tense few hours, Lukashenko announced an agreement and Wagner pulled back.
Putin had said this was treason, and then in hours charges are dropped and Prigozhin was free to leave.
Prigozhin said his convoys were turning back.
Analysis
There is a lot that is theatrical about these events.
Lukashenko said that after getting Putin’s blessing, he had been negotiating with Prigozhin all day.
The Kremlin said that Prigozhin was being sent to Belarus as a sort of exile.
Sourcing of all this information: Our source for Prigozhin going to Belarus is the Kremlin.
There is video of Prigozhin leaving in Rostov and people cheering for him. This is the man Putin had labelled a few hours ago a traitor.
We have no confirmation from Prigozhin where he is. Prigozhin and also Lukashenko have both gone quiet.
Why would Prigozhin suddenly agree to this and give up?
It’s surprising he even survived.
We don’t know what he has on Putin.
We don’t know what the agreement is.
The drop of charges is astounding. Putin is not one to forgive traitors. He values loyalty (Note: Like Trump and other autocrats).
Is he ever going to surface?
Will he be in charge of Wagner from Belarus?
Videos of threatening convoy on its way to Moscow we haven’t seen.
Why after it going so well, no resistance in capturing the command center in Rostov, why would he suddenly announce that he is going back.
We have no idea what happens. It has an air of theatre about it.
For example, when Prigozhin announced his rebellion, there was a video of convicts who work in a unit under the Russian military (non-Wagner forces) cheering Prigozhin and saying “We’re with you.”
A few hours later, there was a video of those same men, standing in the same formation, saying in the same order as before, saying: “You betrayed us. How could you.” It feels theatre like.
Either he thought he had more support among the security services than he had, or that he’s lost his mind.
This is infighting among the elites around Putin. This is about score settling.
Someone in the security services might have led Prigozhin to think he had more support than he had.
Putin promised the people to control this type of elite infighting and he has been shown not to be able to.
Putin is the big loser. This pretense that he is this all-powerful leader has been shown not to be true.
Is this the beginning of the end for Putin?
The February invasion was the beginning of the end for Putin. The question was how long it was going to take and what form it is going to take.
It is possible that he will stay in the same position but be controlled by others and powerless.
Both Putin and Prigozhin are wounded.
Putin promised to punish those who had attacked the motherland. A few hours later, all charges were dropped. Prigozhin had promised to restore justice and he turned tail and went back.
Putin is known for being “indecisive.”
He didn’t resolve the conflict between the Defense Ministry and Prigozhin. He has shown Russia to be fragile. (Note: Putin’s governing style is evidently to put people around him against each other. Perhaps, he just failed to see that this particular competition had gone too far.
He will spin the narrative, calling on Russians to be united. Described the war as for Russia’s very survival.
Prigozhin is in some ways like Navalny. He cuts through the spin of the Kremlin and tells it like it is. He put out a video outlining the start of the war. Nothing to do with fighting Nazis. It was all about the military officers in the Donbas sealing money, enriching themselves. People are seeing this in Russia. He is a dangerous weapon against the propaganda weapon Putin has built up.
In Rostov, there was cheering and people hugging the Wagner forces. When Wagner pulled out, the crowds were chanting “shame” and “disgrace” at the police who came.
Putin will be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life.
This had to be nipped in the bud quickly. If forces were pulled out of Ukraine to deal with this, it would have been catastrophic.
Suspect morale will be damaged. There will be shake ups in the Ministry of Defense. There will be some kind of purge of the military and military intelligence.
There will be questions about who knew what. Who let Prigozhin just walk into the headquarters in Rostov?
(Note: As someone pointed out yesterday, this sort of event flushes out those who might not be loyal to Putin and allows Putin to clean house.)
There is a video of Prigozhin sitting inside the headquarters in Rostov with high level military men. He criticizes them, and one of them appears to criticize his boss. Purging of the ranks to come.
Notes on CNN, Fareed Zakaria
How could Prigozhin trust Putin to abide by the agreement?
Barriers have come down in Moscow
June 25, 2023
Panel: Anne Applebaum, Masha Geeson
Geeson: Most coups fail. Prigozhin marched TO the president. He never was threatening to depose Putin. Putin, he thinks, doesn’t have the right information.
Applebaum: Prigozhin criticized the entire rationale for the invasion. Prigozhin talked about the corruption and self-interest by the military. Russian soldiers have been treated badly. Undermining the rationale for the war. Prigozhin may be in tune with the members of the military in a way that the leadership is not.
Why did it all collapse so quickly? Applebaum: People didn’t believe that Prigozhin was going to do this. He might have wanted his money, his contract was up July 1 and they were going to pay him off. Maybe somebody didn’t materialize to support him in Moscow.
Geeson: Prigozhin’s main audience is the military. Those were the people in the streets in Rostov. Tapped into a deep well of resentment especially in the military. There weren’t thousands in the street in Rostov. Probably became clear to him that he wasn’t going to get to Moscow alive.
for Prigozhin to literally fly off into the evening sunset (at least for now), is odd, to put it mildly.
for Prigozhin to literally fly off into the evening sunset (at least for now), is odd, to put it mildly.
his quick conquest of Rostov-on-Don and rapid journey north toward Moscow indicates that some units of the Russian defense forces stationed along the way may have been at least passively, and perhaps even actively, supporting his mission.
the clear disorganization of the leadership’s response to Prigozhin’s putsch can only be good for Ukraine
Law, Power, and Justice 