Notes from Ukraine: The Latest Podcast about the Russian Coup

Interview with Russian correspondent, Nataliya Vasilyeva. 

• @Nat_Vasilyeva on Twitter
• Rostov is a holiday site for Russians.
• The war has come to their town, to Russia.
• The residents feel that the Kremlin could and would take out Prigozhin if they wanted to and they would not hesitate to harm the citizens of Rostov to do that.
• Wagner’s presence is concentrated in the center.
• They have been reported to be laying land mines on the outskirts of the city.
• Putin’s speech was “underwhelming.”
• It was thought he would declare martial law.
• He didn’t announce any steps to stop the coup.
• Russian TV is struggling to find a way to cover this.  One chose matter of fact coverage of road closings.  Trying to portray life as normal.
• Helicopters are firing on Wagner troops moving toward Moscow.
• Putin has never faced this kind of opposition in 23 years.  How many soldiers does Prigozhin have?  All officials have expressed support for Putin, but what are they doing?
• Wagner troops were allowed to roll into Russia.
• Putin is not the man to make compromises.
• Roland Oliphant
• Uncharted territories.  All the rules don’t apply.  Putin looked furious and intending to kill Prigozhin.
• Who knows which way this will go?  Somebody is going to be eliminated.
• James Kilner (In Georgia)
• Shocked.  I am shocked.  All the assumptions have been ripped up.  I thought Prigozhin was playing by the rules.  He wanted more. 
• (Note: Read his article in the Telegraph)
• You could feel the tension building up with Prigozhin’s repeated statements.  Especially when he started talking about the lie about going into the war. 
• Wagner sources started saying “take up arms” on media.
• It took Putin about 12 hours to say anything.  Huge “leadership gap.”  Taken by surprise.  Didn’t know what to do. He is known as a “ditherer.”  On Kremlin video system put out 6 minutes.  He looked “absolutely shattered” “odd speech” 1917 revolution taking about.  Tried to rally people.  Talking about the evil Nato.  Never mentioned Prigozhin.  Leader who had lost his grip.  The Russian people have already asked to give up so much with this war.
• It’s gone so badly, and they see him being openly challenged.  Once occurs, Putin is weakened.
• Dominic Nicholls @DomNicholls on Twitter.
• Speaking on Twitter: Advisor to Zelensky
• Split of the elites is obvious.  Somebody will loose with a “fatal ending.” 
• Everything is just beginning.
• U.S. reports Biden has been briefed. 
• Former CIA, Steve Hall.  This is a “different league.”  Might  look like a Putin tactic, but this is different. 
• People saying everything hinges on how quickly Putin can take control.  This seems out of control.  Pirgozhin is not a Kremlin insider.
• What will the power brokers do?  Middle ranking military? 
• Gun battles on Russian territory are not what the Russian population has been led to expect.
• Final Thoughts
• Effect on war in Ukraine?  Too early to tell.  No reporting from the Ukrainian side.  Very bad news for the Russians.
• Rhetoric of Prigozhin.  Questioning the actual purpose of the war.  Accusations of stealing everything.  I wonder whether he might seek to end the war if he is successful.  I don’t know.
• James:
• Prigozhin has great rapport with his soldiers.  Report from RMD saying that Ukrainians had stepped up their attacks.
• Nicholls: Watch the border where the incursions into Russia occurred in the past.  Freedom of Russia legions.  Will Russian military open fire on Wagner.  Belarus, internal opposition.  Lukashenko is out of town in Turkey.
• Kilner: another long night.  “Everything is on the table.”  Expects the move on Moscow to happen (note: it has evidently been stopped).  Putin called his allies and Kazakhstan told him that it was an “internal problem.”
• Roland: Nothing can be predicted.  1917, Lenin took advantage and took power.  Lenin said: Power is lying in the streets waiting for somebody to pick it up.  That’s what Prigozhin thinks.  Who’s going to stop us?  Putin is not going to leave the Kremlin until he dies.  The transfer of power is going to be bloody. 

The Telegraph: Ukraine: The Latest Podcast 6/24/23

• Kadyrov issued a statement criticizing Prigozhin.  “military rebellion” “destabilizing” “treacherous march”.  Kadyrov sides completely with Putin.
• Called president of Belarus and Kazakhstan.  Lukashenko is conveniently away in turkey.  (Note: We saw reports that he was flying out of Belarus toward Turkey earlier in the day.)  President of Kazakhstan said that this was an internal matter.
• Latvia has closed roads to Russia.
• Analysis:
• First actual physical challenge to Putin’s authority.  It’s a clear attempt to mount a coup.  Breaks so many assumptions about Russia.  Always was an assumption that antics from Prigozhin was coordinated, convenient for Putin.  Keep other guys in line. 
• Yesterday, people were still convincing themselves that Prigozhin couldn’t do this without Putin’s approval. 
• Prigozhin has benefited from Putin’s patronage for two decades.  They are from the same city.   Prigozhin was getting all these state contracts from Putin.  He was not a prominent figure.  He understood how to make himself useful to the Kremlin.
• 2014 convinced Putin to let him establish the Wagner group.  Went on to fight in the Donbas, Syria, Libya.  Loyal.  Emerged from the shadows when the Ukraine attack happened.  He’s a vain man.  Intends to use the war as a platform.  Personal ambition is one reason.  Political ambitions.  Something cracked around the battle of Bakhmut.
• Criticisms became more acute.  His videos, piles and piles of dead bodies, atrocious bloodshed.  Seems an act of desperation.  Perhaps mental illness.
• Odds are stacked against Prigozhin succeeding.  The Kremlin is assumed to be “coup proof.”  Competing agencies, jealous of each other.  The National Guard was meant to be an “anti-coup” force.  FSB, Armed forces. Personal protection force.  Kadyrov, private army.  Power brokers.
• Have their eyes on one another.  Nipped any attempt to change in the bud.
• Resources have been exhausted in Ukraine.
• Last night Prigozhin said “this is not a coup.”
• The head of the Russian Orthodox Church has stated its support for Putin.  So had head of Crimea, other regions.
• Don’t see where the collapse of morale is going to come from.
• 1917, soldiers came back from the front.  Launched coup.  Suspect this one will not work.
• (Note: Pushkin story about revolt against Catherine the Great.)
• Suspect Prigozhin will end up dead.
• More Analysis
• “Internal dispute” Prigozhin has no elite base.  He is an outsider. Unlikely a popular uprising and no army participation.  In 1917 people in Russia were starving.  Civil unrest was common.  Population is treating this with “bemusement.”
• Dangers moment for Putin.  The tension is not there among the population.  If Russia had been truly cut off by the sanctions (as they could have been) this would be a moment where regime change could be possible.  FAILURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO SUPPORT UKRAINS. (Note: I could not agree more).
• Even if Prigozhin fails, he will have pointed out the frustration with the way this war has been carried out. It was supposed to be an “operation” lasting only a few days.
• If Prigozhin is killed, these frustrations will not go away, possibly be picked up by a political opposition figure.  (See 1917 revolution, note look up rebellion that brought Trotsky to power)
•  We are likely to see a clamp down in Russia.  Blindsided by trying to eliminate liberal opposition, Russia did not see the potential for an attack from the extremist faction who wanted a larger and more aggressive war.
• Private armies can have a destabilizing effect.  Ancient Rome, modern Sudan. 
• The timing is terrible for Putin.  He had gained control of the narrative after a slower than expected counter-offensive by the Ukrainians.
• Reflect on Bakhmut.  The draining of resources in the fight for Bakhmut was very important.  (Note: The Americans were critical of this).  “bleeding Wagner dry there”  Turned Prigozhin against Putin.  The international implication are also great.  Wagner is not only a force in Russia and Ukraine.  (Note: reported this morning, Wagner gets half a billion dollars annually from efforts in the Central African Republic alone).  The West should take advantage of this and try to move into the regions where Wagner is active.
• This is a huge moment.
• Putin has an off ramp in the war in Ukraine.  He can say he was betrayed at home and has to pull out.  Cracks are beginning to show.

4:40 PM New York Time

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Prigozhin is going to Belarus and all charges against him will be dropped.

The Telegraph: Ukraine: the Latest (the best Ukraine podcast out there).

Earlier Today

• Wagner crossed into Russia from Ukraine.
• Wagner is on the streets of Rostov on Don and inside the Russian Army headquarters.
• Say they control an airport.
• Heavily armed soldiers.  (5:30 London time)
• They will blockade city and will go to Moscow unless officials come to them.
• They are also said to be in charge of Voronezh.
• They say they have been attacked.  Russian soldiers have mutinied.
• Loyalty of Russian National Guard will be crucial.
• Airplane shot down. 
• Helicopters are reported to have fired on Wagner troops.
• Wagner Statement: “betrayal of the mother land”  when we were fighting in Africa, they betrayed us.  They stole money that was to go for support.  They hit civilians.  We are patriots. 
• Russian military has said this is a “criminal adventure.”
• Putin made a television address this morning.  He called it an “armed mutiny.”  (Read statement, veers off on Nazis).
• Putin appealed to “all those who had been pulled into a criminal adventure.”  Said Russia had been “stabbed in the back.”  “internal betrayal” “extraordinary adventures” “treason” “deadly threat”
• Putin created Wagner. 
• Kadyrov has always had a testy relationship with Prigozhin.  He made statement: “vile betrayal” “military coup” “The war is not the time to express personal grievances.”

Why has Prigozhin agreed to stand down?

Why was Wagner not attacked when it came across the border?

Why was Wagner not stopped when taking over an important military building in Rostov on Don?

Why would Prigozhin go to Belarus?

My partner (who was at West Point) pointed out that Russia has moved the most effective fighting force Russia has up almost level with Kyiv without seeming like they are moving for an external attack. If Belarus came down from the North, the Russians could easily launch a two-pronged attack on Ukraine.

It’s all very strange. We are monitoring the situation.

www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/world/europe/putin-prigozhin-wagner.html

Excerpts

trademark of Mr. Putin’s rule: tolerating, even encouraging, conflict among the elite because they kept potential rivals in check, while underscoring that ultimate authority always rested with the president himself.

after more than 20 years profiting from his personal ties to Mr. Putin, Mr. Prigozhin cast the last shreds of that loyalty aside and plunged Russia into its biggest political crisis in three decades, as his forces seized control of key military facilities in the southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don and threatened to enter

the president delivered a five-minute address to the nation describing Mr. Prigozhin — without naming him — as a traitor and vowing to quell the uprising the paramilitary leader had started. But the damage had already been done.

Mr. Prigozhin jumped into the fray with an internet “troll factory,” waging “information warfare against the United States.” As Russia sought to expand its reach in Syria and Africa, Mr. Prigozhin deployed his growing Wagner mercenary force to those regions — allowing the Kremlin to project power while minimizing Russian military boots on the ground.

By early this year, the Kremlin appeared to be taking some steps to limit Mr. Prigozhin’s rise. Television commentators were directed to avoid mention of him on air, and he lost his ability to recruit convicts.

Mr. Prigozhin “had no real independent power base except the favor of the president,” Mark Galeotti, an expert on the Russian military and security services, said. “However this goes, it undermines Putin’s credibility and legitimacy.”

Russia’s FSB security service has opened a criminal case for armed mutiny against Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin after the mercenary chief accused the Russian military of targeting his forces and vowed to “destroy” his rivals.
— Read on www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

Thursday reporting on a real estate deal made by U.S. Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett months after her confirmation in 2020 was the latest evidence, said a government watchdog, that ethics reforms at the high court must either be imposed by the judiciary or Congress.Days after ProPublica rep…
— Read on www.rawstory.com/amy-coney-barrett-ethics/

www.nytimes.com/2023/06/22/us/politics/modi-speech-biden-boycott.html

Four of the protesting members released a statement Thursday condemning the address as “an embarrassing spectacle,” arguing that by giving Mr. Modi such a rare platform, “Congress undermines its ability to be a credible advocate for the rights of religious minorities and journalists around the world.”

other lawmakers have acknowledged and even criticized Mr. Modi for promoting antidemocratic and Hindu nationalist policies, and criticized him for failing to condemn violent assaults against minority groups, they have recoiled at the idea of boycotting a visit from such an economically and strategically important U.S. ally.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/supreme-court-rules-unanimously-in-favor-of-former-va-robert-f-mcdonnell-in-corruption-case/2016/06/27/38526a94-3c75-11e6-a66f-aa6c1883b6b1_story.html

As a result of this opinion, people with illegal convictions and sentences—people who are legally innocent—will be stuck in prison for no good reason.
— Read on slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/06/supreme-court-conservatives-jones-hendrix-disaster.html

Excepts:

The reasoning calls to mind one of Justice William J. Brennan’s famous lines from McCleskey v. Kemp: “Taken on its face, such [reasoning] seems to suggest a fear of too much justice.” Justice Thomas’ majority also relied on some pretty shoddy historical accounts of habeas corpus as well. (I’m sure they’ll get their history right one of these days.)

Last term, in one of the more ghastly Supreme Court decisions, the same 6–3 majority from Jones ruled for Arizona in a case where the state had loudly and proudly argued that “innocence is not enough” to remedy a conviction for innocent persons convicted in state courts

The court said too bad; it’s illegal for a federal court to consider evidence of his innocence, even if that evidence wasn’t ever introduced because the state appointed him an ineffective lawyer

Merrick Garland has long claimed he’s been methodically building his investigation into January 6 from the bottom up—but a Washington Post exposé shows otherwise.
— Read on www.thenation.com/article/politics/its-official-the-doj-stalled-the-investigation-into-donald-trump/

How inequality and insecurity fueled a crisis in the West.
— Read on www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/end-democratic-capitalism

Counterintelligence officials said in a top secret cable to all stations and bases around the world that too many of the people it recruits from other countries to spy for the U.S. are being lost.
— Read on www.nytimes.com/2021/10/05/us/politics/cia-informants-killed-captured.html