David: People often describe Orban as autocratic. But he’s not a ruler who jails or kills his opponents. Can you describe how he suppresses dissent?
Andrew: Hungary under Prime Minister Orban is far from being a police state like Russia or Belarus. As an opposition legislator said to me last week in Budapest, it is more of a “propaganda state” in which Orban’s governing party, Fidesz, controls the media landscape.
Orban does not jail his opponents or have them beaten up the way Vladimir Putin does, but he has relentlessly squeezed the space available for critical voices by getting business cronies to buy up independent media and starving the few others of advertising revenue. Fidesz-controlled outlets treat critics as traitors and deviants. He has also funded a raft of friendly research institutes and a university that help flood the zone with pro-government views.
When speaking at a 2022 gathering of American conservatives in Budapest, Orban hailed Tucker Carlson as a model of how media should work: “There should be shows like his day and night — or, as you say, 24/7.” In Hungary, that goal has been achieved.
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WEDNESDAY 6 MARCH 2024
UKRAINE:
- A Russian missile came close to killing Ukrainian President Zelensky and the Greek Prime Minister in Odesa.
- We must approve aid to Ukraine. I am ashamed that this aid has been held up and I’m glad my father (who fought in WWII) is not alive to see the US abandon a group of people fighting for independence an democracy.
- If Zelensky is killed, it will be a disaster.
SEXUAL VIOLENCE
TRUMP
- When people like Liz Cheney start to question the policies over forty years of Republicanism that have led us to this point, I will start to have some respect for her. Otherwise, she is too little, too late. She voted with Trump 90% of the time.
- Similarly, people like Sarah Matthews, who profited from Trump, went along with a man who was obviously unfit to hold any public office for years, and participated in the Republican movement that brought us here, I have no time for.
- Nicolle Wallace gives these “reformed” Republicans a ton of airtime. That makes sense since she herself participated in an administration that legitimated torture. In addition, she joined an administration that came to power using the Republican stacked Supreme Court.
- Well, I was sitting here thinking that however nice David Jolly is, we have exhausted his ability or capability to say anything interesting or new. Then, he ups and says: What was missing from the comments of Liz Cheney and Sue Gordon and Nickey Haley and others is – vote for Joe Biden. Really. F…ing really. “You don’t get credit for going half way.” Oh boy, yes.
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WEDNESDAY 6 MARCH 2024
I can’t believe it’s Wednesday. It was just Monday twenty minutes ago. All these people voting for Trump in the primaries. It is just astounding. We cannot, cannot allow Republicans to give what democracy we have away. Is it perfect? No, but we will expend time, misery, energy, money, lives just getting back to where we are now if Trump wins. And, I have no earthly idea how long that will take. I am filled with anxiety and will be until the election is over. Just vote is fine to say, but the voting machine breach in Coffee County, Georgia has not been investigated adequately and that’s just one instance. I will vote. We will vote, but I have a deep mistrust of a voting machine system in Georgia controlled by Brian Kemp.
A Russian missile almost hit the motorcade Zelensky was riding in. If Zelensky were killed, it would be a disaster. We must pass legislation to fund Ukraine. Turning our backs on Ukraine is like turning our backs on ourselves.
Well, the sun is finally out.
Israel:
- Even though Netanyahu has agreed not to restrict worship at the Temple Mount mosque in Jerusalem for Ramadan, his government specified that they would reevaluate the decision weekly.
- Also, the Israelis continue to announce new settlements in the West Bank, sure to cause problems.
- It was reported in Haaretz (Israeli newspaper) yesterday that the Israeli Education Minister is moving to appoint right-wing Netanyahu associates who are unqualified to positions in the National Library Council. This is so like what Trump has done and is going to do if he gets close to power again.
Israel: Haaretz
- Benny Gantz has emphasized the need for an operation in Rafah in the talks with the US. (Note: It is my understanding that the Biden administration has been trying to discourage this. Gantz is an opposition leader and his support for an “op” is significant.)
- A 64-year-old man was attacked with a knife by a 14-year-old Palestinian youth yesterday. (Note: It appears from the photo that the man was standing at a bus stop.)
- “Disastrous Humanitarian Aid Policy for Gaza.” Haaretz. “Israeli officials were still looking at humanitarian aid for Gazans as a lifeline for Hamas…at no point…has there been a clear Israeli policy on allowing supplies into the Stirp.”
- Aid to Gaza is so controversial within Israel, government officials try to hide the fact that it is going on. We only found out about the Israelis accompanying aid trucks delivering aid when there was a situation where almost 100 Palestinians were killed during the delivery.
- The UN was inexcusably remiss in reporting the sexual violence that went on in the Hamas attack in October. The grotesque nature of these attacks, their focus on genitals, mutilation, gang rape, the rape of corpses, the celebrations over the dead bodies of women, filmed by the terrorists themselves, is enough to make any person question exactly what is going on with people whose religion encourages this. It is extremely dangerous and refusing to acknowledge it will not solve anything. The UN has finally released a report. It makes the contemplation of the situation of the female hostages of Hamas, dark indeed.
- Haaretz: “The UN report officially validated what Israelis have known for nearly five months, and one would hope it will help in the fight against the deniers…”
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AFTERNOON NEWS NOTES
ISRAEL: YESHIVA STUDENTS AND CONSCRIPTION
ARTICLES
- Smotrich’s idea to fund yeshivas despite the suspension of funds if a law is not passed by the end of March, drew ire from Liud ministers who think it would cause public outrage. Such a law, which would bypass the High Court of Justice and continue funding yeshivas after the present conscription law expires.
- Haaretz Editorial, 2/22/24
- A proposed law under which 66,000 ultra-Orthodox men registered as yeshiva and married students will be exempt from military service.
- The High Court has ruled three times that this arrangement is illegal.
- The High Court’s position is one of the main motives behind the ultra-Orthodox parties’ support of the judicial coup, designed to render the Supreme Court powerless.
- Any draft law that does not include drafting Yeshiva students must be opposed, and opposed by the coalition, “even at the price of bringing down the government.”
- February 9, 2024, Opinion by Anshel Pfeffer
- The Haredi Community that has for 75 years remained distant from matters of state was seemingly prepared to take part. Early in the Israel-Hamas war, a few dozen ultra-Orthodox men volunteered to join the IDF. It was a “brilliant publicity stunt.”
- Within a few weeks most of them were back in civilian life.
- They will occasionally “be called up for light reserve duty in the Military Rabbinate corps.
- Haredi leadership has no intention of allowing students to enlist. It would empty the yeshivas and “end their control over the young men in their communities.”
- Netanyahu has been trying to highlight the volunteers.
- But, “…a few thousand part-time volunteers is not going to convince Israelis that the Haredim are carrying a fair share of the burden.”
- Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu is the party most openly critical of the Haredi community.
- If there is a new government, that government may need to include a Haredi party in their coalition. Then, ending examptions would not happen.
- And, there is no viable way of forcing tens of thousands of yeshiva students to enlist.
- These students have been brought up in a community largely isolated from the rest of Israeli society. They have no relevant education or experience to help them in the stressful secular environment of military service.
- The Haredi schools are under no obligation to teach the national curriculum, and from the age of 13 denies male students any nonreligious studies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_of_yeshiva_students
- Since 1977, this community has been exempted from military duty or national service. In 2012, service became mandatory but the law has never been enforced.
- In 2014, there was a mass rally in Jerusalem against the proposed law overturning the exemption for military service for Haredi students.
- 300,000 to 600,000 people attended.
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It is settlements like these that Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has promised to expand, announcing plans late last week for 3,000 new homes, “deepening our eternal grip on the entire land of Israel.” The Biden administration reacted immediately, opposing any expansion and calling existing settlements “inconsistent with international law.”
www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/middleeast/west-bank-israeli-settlement-homesh.html
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The Israeli government has decided against putting new restrictions on access to an important mosque in Jerusalem during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a move that may reduce tensions at a site that has long been a flashpoint for unrest.
At a meeting on Tuesday night led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, security officials decided to let a similar number of worshipers enter the Aqsa Mosque compound during Ramadan as they had in previous years, Mr. Netanyahu’s office said. Ramadan, whose start is tied to the sighting of the crescent moon, is expected to begin in a few days.
Israel has long restricted access to the compound, which is sacred to Muslims and Jews alike, during Ramadan for Palestinians from the Israeli-occupied West Bank. This year, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, called on the government to impose limits on Arab citizens of Israel as well.
Hamas previously condemned any Israeli restrictions on worship at Al Aqsa. On Monday, a Hamas leader called on Palestinians to turn the mosque into a site of confrontation.
Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Jerusalem should “turn every moment of Ramadan into a clash and confrontation with the enemy to protect Al Aqsa,” Osama Hamdan, a Hamas leader based in Beirut, told a conference of Muslim scholars by video.
In Muslim tradition, the Prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven from the site of Al Aqsa, and tens of thousands of Muslims visit the mosque every day during Ramadan. For Jews, the area is revered as the Temple Mount because it was the site of two Jewish temples in antiquity that remain central to Jewish identity.
www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/world/middleeast/israel-aqsa-mosque-ramadan.html
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By Adam Taylor
March 5, 2024 at 12:47 p.m. ET
The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants Tuesday for two Russian military leaders in connection with alleged war crimes in Ukraine.
The court said in a statement that it issued warrants for Lt. Gen. Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash and Adm. Viktor Kinolayevich Sokolov. At the time of the alleged crimes, Kobylash was the commander of long-range aviation of the aerospace force in the Russian armed forces, while Sokolov was commander of the Russian navy’s Black Sea fleet.
The court’s pretrial chamber found that the “two suspects bear responsibility for missile strikes carried out by the forces under their command against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure from at least 10 October 2022 until at least 9 March 2023,” the ICC said in the statement.
The two military leaders are alleged to have directed attacks at civilian objects and caused excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects, both war crimes under the Rome Statue, the international treaty that founded the ICC.
The court’s pretrial chamber found that even if the civilian targets like electric infrastructure could have qualified as military objectives, “the expected incidental civilian harm and damage would have been clearly excessive to the anticipated military advantage.”
The court also accused Kobylash and Sokolov of inhumane acts, a crime against humanity under the Rome Statute, which is a graver category of crimes that has not been used yet in the ICC’s Ukraine investigation. In its statement, the court said that this was because the multiple acts against a civilian population were “pursuant to a state policy.”
[Zelensky in bind over how to draft more troops as Russian forces advance]
Tuesday’s announcement marks just the second time the court has issued arrest warrants in its investigation into alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Last year, the court issued warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, for the war crimes of “unlawful deportation” and “unlawful transfer” of children from occupied areas.
The earlier warrants had a mostly symbolic impact. Russia, like the United States, does not accept the ICC’s jurisdiction, and the court does not try people in absentia. However it has limited the Russian president’s travel to countries that accept the court’s jurisdiction. Last year, Putin skipped an international summit in South Africa shortly after the warrants were made public.
Kobylash remains in his position in Russia’s aerospace force, but multiple Russian military bloggers reported last month that Sokolov had been dismissed as commander of the Black Sea fleet after a series of attacks by Ukrainian forces on the Russian navy. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on the reports.
The ICC’s top prosecutor, British lawyer Karim Khan, announced a probe into potential war crimes in Ukraine in March 2022. Though Ukraine is also not a party to the court, it has accepted its jurisdiction.
In a post to social media, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he welcomed the new arrest warrants.
“Every Russian commander who orders strikes against Ukrainian civilians and critical infrastructure must know that justice will be served,” Zelensky wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Every perpetrator of such crimes must know that they will be held accountable.”
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/05/icc-russia-ukraine-kobylashn-sokolov/
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“We will never allow espionage activities to be carried out within the borders of our country. We will catch them one by one and bring them to justice,” Ali Yerlikaya, the interior minister, said on Twitter.
Turkish police have detained seven people suspected of selling information to Israel’s Mossad intelligence service.
One of the suspects, a detective, was trained by Mossad and received off-book payments in cryptocurrency, the Turkish intelligence agency said. He is suspected of gathering information on Middle Eastern companies and individuals in Turkey, placing tracking devices and engaging in surveillance.
“We will never allow espionage activities to be carried out within the borders of our country. We will catch them one by one and bring them to justice,” Ali Yerlikaya, the interior minister, said on Twitter.The
the
This is the latest in a series of incidents in which Ankara has made accusations of Mossad espionage. The Turkish government has warned Israel of “serious consequences” if it tries to hunt down Hamas members living outside the Palestinian territories, including in Turkey.Turkish police have detained seven people suspected of selling information to Israel’s Mossad intelligence service.
Israel uncovers Hamas weapons depot near school
Israeli counter-terrorist troops have discovered a Hamas weapons depot close to a school, the army reported.
The IDF said it had “intelligence indications” of the site, which had been used as a shelter for civilians, near to a school in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis.
The depot contained dozens of firearms, ammunition, rockets, mortars, grenades, and other military equipment, the IDF said. It was located near a further site containing a cache of dozens more rockets and military equipment.
Footage shared by the IDF shows Palestinian Islamic Jihad flags at both locations.
The IDF has encouraged civilians to evacuate Khan Younis in recent days as it carries out an operation to flush out Hamas militants and uncover supply centres in the area.
Harris criticism of Israel ‘watered down’ by White House
Kamala Harris’ pointed speech on the need for a ceasefire in Gaza was harsher towards Israel in its original draft, reports suggest.
The US vice-president’s speech, in which she called for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza and described conditions in the Strip as “inhumane”, marked a sea change in Washington’s language towards Israel.
Before it was sent to the National Security Council for review, the vice-president’s address called out Israel even more directly about the need to immediately allow additional aid trucks in, NBC reported, citing a current and former official familiar with the speech.
One official described Harris’ original language as strong but not controversial.
Asked about reports that the speech Sunday was moderated to be less aggressive, Kirsten Allen, Harris’ communications director, said, “That is inaccurate.”One of the suspects, a detective, was trained by Mossad and received off-book payments in cryptocurrency, the Turkish intelligence agency said. He is suspected of gathering information on Middle Eastern companies and individuals in Turkey, placing tracking devices and engaging in surveillance.
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MORNING NEWS NOTES
ISRAEL: Haaretz (3/5/24)
- Gantz’s “rogue visit” to the White House is part of a “mutiny” against Netanyahu.
- Gantz’s visit is not the normal way diplomacy is conducted.
- Netanyahu’s government “long ago threw all norms to the wind.”
- This is “freelance diplomacy in the capital of Israel’s closest…aly.”
- Gantz is highlighting his own disregard for Netanyahu and also the contempt in which the Biden administration holds Netanyahu.
- Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced last week that he “would only agree to present a new military draft law if there was agreement throughout the entire emergency coalition…on how to regulate the exemption of yeshiva students from conscription.” (quote from article)
- Netanyahu promised the far-right when he took office of a law which would exempt yeshiva students.
- Gallant, however, had given Gantz the power of veto.
- Gantz is extremely unlikely to support legislation that Haredi parties want.
- Government funding of the yeshivas will stop at the end of the month.
- A year ago, Gallant spoke out against Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul law. When Netanyahu fired him, there were mass protests.
- Gallant refuses to even be in the same room with Netanyahu alone.
- Netanyahu is “the weakest prime minister in Israeli history.” He is incapable of exercising authority over his own ministers, but is afraid of firing them.
- Gantz, like Netanyahu, is courting the ultra-right because he has no other path to power.
- Gallant has no place in the Likud party and will likely join Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot in a vaguely defined political movement.
- Gantz also cannot get a law passed that will force the yeshiva students to join the military, and if passed they are likely to just ignore it.
- There are two draft laws regarding conscription making their way to the Knesset. There is the “old draft law,” meant to find a way to legalize the exemption for ultra-Orthodox students and “those who claim to be yeshiva students” from enlisting in the IDF.
- This effort to legalize the exemption has been going on since 1998 when the Supreme Court found that the exemption was unconstitutional.
- The government managed to extend the exemptions due to five consecutive general elections that prevented a new law getting passed.
- Last August, the extensions ran out. The Netanuahu government has asked for another extension, and the Supreme Court must rule.
- Drafting yeshiva students would end Netanyahu’s government coalition, dependent on Haredi parties. And, the IDF is hardly in a position to launch a new recruitment drive among yeshiva students (Note: who are so badly educated they are a problem for the military).
- Second, there is a new conscription law. In this law, the length of service for male conscripts will be lengthened and the age of eligibility increased.
- This puts both sides in a bad position. How can Israel demand more service for regular conscripts and still exempt yeshiva students?
- In the past, the IDF has created units with special conditions for the ultra-Orthodox (sex segregation, increased daily time for prayers and religious study), but the demand to join these units has been low.
- Neither the ultra-Orthodox nor the IDF want mandatory conscription of yeshiva students.
- “..it’s an open secret that most of the ostensibly full-time yeshiva students don’t actually engage in religious study all day.”
- The IDF also does not have the resources to give the yeshiva students “the basic skills and education they were denied in the Haredi education system.”
Law, Power, and Justice 