Tag: Russia
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Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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NEWS/UKRAINE JOURNAL 2023
Monday 2 January 2023
Ukraine: (BBC)
- Donetsk attack by Ukrainians. Hundreds thought dead.
- Figures for the dead are at odds between those reported by the Russians and the Ukrainians.
- Eastern Donetsk attack. Ukrainians say 400 killed and 300 wounded. A school was being used as a base by the Russians. Russian reports on state media is that HYMARS were used. Russians are saying that 15 were injured.
- Russian military bloggers are saying that hundreds have been killed and wounded. Base was being used for conscripts. There has been a lot of anger, saying that Russian commanders should be punished. Some of them say that 1000 conscripts were there waiting to be deployed.
- This could be the largest attack with casualties in the war.
- Another night of attacks on Kyiv, civilian population.
- Global prices are higher because of the war especially in Africa. Some of Africa has strong ties with Russia and Wagner Group has been operating in West Africa.
- Demonstrations in support of Russia have occurred in Mali, there is waving of Russian flags and chants of anti-french sentiments. French forces fighting extremism have withdrawn. The American ambassador to the Ivory Coast has commented on the Wagner Group involvement in the region. “We cannot exist in the same space as those groups who do not respect human rights.” He said. “the presence of Russian mercenaries in any country…has become poorer and less secure…they are not very good fighters and they commit terrible human rights abuses and they are just a destabilizing force.”
- A UN vote to condemn Russia’s actions divided the participants, half voted in favor, 17 abstained, Eritrea voted alongside Russia.
- The House passed a bill to counter Russian investment in Africa.
- This may have alienated some. Some consider it unfair to punish African countries for associating with Russia economically.
- The African Union has avoided taking sides in the war.
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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MORNING NEWS STORIES
Suspicious Russian Oligarch Deaths
Wagner Group
https://special-ops.org/wagner-group-notorious-private-military-company/
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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FRIDAY 30 DECEMBER 2022
Morning News Notes:
- The corporate media is obsessed, obsessed with Santos. But this is what the country has become, a country of grifters, grifters who are admired and funded for the expertise of their grift. The Trump era attracts grifters and politics has become the most lucrative place not only to grift, but to protect oneself from accountability.
- The corporate media is also obsessed with the “crisis on the border” story. They join Fox News in reporting this “crisis” with no context, no framework in which to understand the problem. People are going to migrate. My partner and I are in this country because they left Ireland and Scotland looking for a better life. Wealthy countries have two choices. Either they develop the economies and the democracy in Latin and South America, or they deal with massive immigration. Unless you are willing to mine the border and post military on every inch (which I suspect the Republicans would love) you cannot stop immigration.
- In a similar vein, advanced western societies have no choice but to help defend Ukraine. I cannot for the life of me understand people who feel as if Ukrainians are disposable because helping to defend them might cause a rise in gas prices. What does that say about people in this country?
- This most recent attack is estimated to have been the largest since the beginning of the war. They are expecting a new wave of mobilizations in Russia. Russian soldiers are being told that they can freeze their sperm in case they are killed. They have also been promised debt relief and other financial perks.
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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New York Times
- While Russia is estimated to have lost 100,000 killed and injured, Putin has signaled that he is prepared to accept many more.
- “Kyiv’s negotiating position has hardened.”
- In March, Ukrainian negotiators proposed adopting neutral status, that is, not joining NATO in exchange for security guarantees from other nations. They were prepared to have talks about Crimea, and the Donbas. Those terms are now off the table.
- In November, Zelensky presented a proposal calling for Russia’s full withdrawal including Crimea and Donbas.
- This proposal also included: an international tribunal to try Russian war crimes; Moscow’s release of political prisoners and those forcibly departed; compensation for war damages; steps by the international community to ensure the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and to provide for its food and energy security.
- France’s Macron has said “we must not humiliate Russia” and has called security guarantees for Russia an essential part of peace talks.
- (Note: This article does not mention the fact that Russia has violated all peace agreements in the past, nor the fact that Russia is the invading country. The both-sides headline is: “Hard-Line Positions by Russia and Ukraine Dim Hope for Peace Talks”)
New York Times
- The administration has started a broad effort to halt Iran’s ability to produce and deliver drones to Russia.
- Intercepted drones are stuffed with American made technology.
- Washington and London are warning that iran may be about to provide Russia with missiles.
New York Times
- A group of former FBI agents who had been placed on leave, calling themselves “The Suspendables,” sent a letter to Christopher Wray. They made accusations that the FBI had discriminated against conservative-leaning agents.
- They accused one agent of having a suspicious role in the Mar-a-lago search.
- Republicans are attacking the FBI and have seized on the letter. Jim Jordan has pledged to investigate the “politicization” of the FBI and the Justice Department.
The Guardian
- 33 rockets hit Kherson in a single day. This included a maternity ward.
- Kherson was liberated in November.
- Russian men called up to fight in Ukraine can freeze their sperm for free.
- The Kremlin may well need to mobilize more men. They are promising a number of perks such as a grace period on loan repayments and a halt on legal proceedings. Families, however, complain that there is no followthrough on these promises.
- Putin announced on Tuesday that Russia would ban the supply of oil to Western countries that have imposed a price cap.
- The assault on Bakhmut continues. There is little strategic advantage to taking Bakhmut for the Russians, but it is thought to have become a symbolic target for Putin, desperate to end the year with a victory.
- The Wagner Group is leading the Russian attack. The failure to take back Bakhmut has been seen as a blow for the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his political ambitions and also an embarrassment to Putin.
- Two of Wagner’s soldiers produced and distributed a video in which they criticized Russia’s army for a failure to supply gun crews with enough ammunition and saying that they (Wagner) were doing all the fighting.
- One of the soldiers accused the Russian army chief of staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, of deliberately obstructing the delivery of more shells “to let our guys die.”
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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MORNING NEWS NOTES
MSNBC
- The current situation is not sustainable for the citizens of Ukraine or for the Russians.
- John Heileman presents a “both sides” argument for Russia and Ukraine.
- The Russians have abducted 11,000 children from Ukraine.
- Commentator, former government official. We have to lay the pressure on in terms of compromise. (Note: Jesus). “Nobody likes to hear that word.”
AMVO
- “We will not have a country by the end of the Biden term.” Commentator talking about the border. Steve Cortes, former Trump Assistant. Cortes is recommending that the Republicans refuse to extend the debt limit.
FOX NEWS
- Endless blather about the border “crisis.”
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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TUESDAY 15 NOVEMBER 2022
After a speech by Zelensky at the G20 meeting in Bali, Russia launched the largest missile attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war in February. At least one of those missiles, hit Poland.
There is the expected hand wringing in the U.S. Oh, we don’t know if Putin did this intentionally. Missiles can go off course. Perhaps it was a missile malfunction.
But, as a former assistant to Zelensky has said, if Putin is allowed to get away with this without consequences, he will do it again. And, there is something absurd to me about saying it’s O.K. for Putin to bomb he living hell out of Ukraine, but not if they fire three feet into Poland.
I am tired of it. I am tired of and I will never ever get used to living in a society where there is no accountability. Trump and company ran a five year scam operation out of the White House and conducted a coup and there is no response, no accountability. There is no criminal justice system left in this country for rich and powerful people. Equality before the law is a cruel joke, a cereal box saying.
There is no accountability for Trump and company and no accountability for Putin. What kind of a culture have we become? Half of the voters in Georgia voted for Hershel Walker. Hershel, f…ing Walker. What kind of society?
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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FRIDAY 21 OCTOBER 2022
UKRAINE UPDATE: Telegram Podcast.
- A lot of missile strikes today. Russia is trying to terrorize the civilian population in order to break the Ukrainian will.
- The dam is under threat. Ukraine says that Russia has placed mines on the dam.
- This would be an environmental and humanitarian disaster. It would stop the Ukrainian advance.
- The Ukrainians are installing cement shelters at bus stops, preparation for long term air war.
- British Ministry of Defense updates on the movement in Belarus. This force, a combined Russian and Belarusian force, is not nearly what the Russians have maintained. They just don’t have the soldiers. The advantage of the propaganda is to make Ukraine wonder whether they need to take the threat seriously. If seriously, how seriously and how many troops should be moved. This is a threat of a new axis to the North. The aim is to tie down Ukrainian resources.
- Kakhovka Dam.
- As conventional warfare goes badly for the Russians, they are resorting to unconventional warfare. This potential bombing of the Kakhovka Dam is an example of that.
- In 1941, as German troops were sweeping through Ukraine, Stalin’s troop blew up a dam to slow down the Nazi advance. This killed 20,000 to 100,000 civilians. The potential damage is enormous.
- If the West were clearer on where the red lines were, this might not be being threatened.
- Republicans
- Remark about not giving Ukraine a blank check if the Republicans take over the Congress. “It’s a lot bigger than Ukraine.” Quote from Biden.
- Turkey
- Turkey has been something of a mediator in this conflict. Erdogan is passing along the message that Putin is willing to negotiate. This is another example of Putin sending diplomatic messages through third parties.
- Western leaders think Russia needs a defeat in this conflict.
- Winter
- Cold weather means the risk of freezing to metal surfaces. It’s more difficult and dangerous operating machinery. Winter slows everything down. The Ukrainian counter-attacks are important when you think of the coming winter.
- The winter will also make worse the European situation and therefore their commitment to Ukraine.
- Political leaders need to better explain why the situation is so hard and why it is important.
- Winter is the key strategy for the Russians. They think the tide both militarily and politically will turn for them with the winter.
- Incident – Russian military plane letting go a missile near a British plane.
- This was over the Black Sea. The reporter thinks that this was a mistake by a Russian pilot and not a Kremlin approved action. He thinks it is highly unlikely it was a technical mistake.
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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THURSDAY 6 OCTOBER 2022
UKRAINE
Intelligence Matters Podcast
- Putin gave a speech essentially saying that Russia would not give back these annexed territories and Ukraine has only one option, negotiate.
- The military situation on the ground is disastrous for the Russians
- Escalation is likely as Putin sees that he will not get what he wants.
- Putin is putting on a brave front with public displays but saying something does not make it so. The situation continues to deteriorate for him. Bloggers are calling out Putin, military bloggers, former intelligence officers. They are criticizing the annexation.
- Zelensky has asked for accelerated admission to NATO.
- Putin’s options are diminishing. The compensation will likely be in using tactical weapons.
- It is a way of striking back at a military you can’t defeat on the ground.
- We are seven months into the war and Putin may feel that somehow, he will get an advantage using these weapons.
- There is no succession plan. Putin needs to keep the support of this inner circle.
- Options if the Russians use tactical nuclear weapons:
- Ensuring that Putin doesn’t get away with nuclear blackmail.
- 1) Nuclear response. Putin needs to understand that that’s on the table. 2) Kinetic response to impose devastating military answer. 3) Combination of an economic and political price.
- Russia must be considered a pariah state.
- There are going to be surprises, but we can’t afford to be surprised.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE UPDATE PODCAST
- Russia is incapable of responding to three counteroffensives at the same time.
- Surrenders in Kherson will create a cascade of Russian troops.
- Mass surrenders may create a problem for Ukrainians.
- Putin’s reputation has been damaged.
- Mobilization efforts will be ineffective due to corruption and the breaking of the social contract with the Russian people.
- Conscripts are being sent in with vital training or equipment.
- There is a heightened risk of terror attacks in central Ukraine.
- Troops that were rushed to the front in the past week have not improved Russia’s position.
NYT
- Putin has announced that Russia is “nationalizing” the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and intends to start running it.
- Private arms sales to Ukraine, allowed and facilitated by the Biden administration, open a “wild west” area of potential graft and corruption.
UKRAINE WORLD
- Seven missile strikes overnight at Zaporizhia.
KYIV INDEPENDENT
- Russia continues to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
- Belarus has sent wagons of ammunition to Russian troops.
- EU adopts a new package of sanctions against Russia.
- Twice as many draft-age Russians left the country than joined the army.
THE MOSCOW TIMES
- A senior Kremlin-installed official in Kherson region criticized publicly Russian military officials. In a video posted on Telegram, he suggested that the acting governor “should simply shoot himself like a real officer.”
- Russian regions experiencing the highest rates of poverty have mobilized the largest share of conscripts.
- Balarus President Lukashenko has banned price increases amidst galloping inflation.
- Mobilized Russian soldiers will not be reimbursed for medical supplies they bring to the front with them.
- Jailed Kremlin critic Kara-Murza faces new treason charges. He was jailed on charges of disobeying police orders, then “discrediting” the Armed Forces and now charges of cooperating with an “undesirable” foreign NGO.
- Kara-Murza survived two poisoning attempts and like Navalny returned to Russia.
- Georgia is struggling to deal with thousands of Russians seeking refuge.
Tail Ends
- The United States is considering sending aid to Cuba in response to hurricane damage.
- Russian soldiers are abandoning equipment but taking loot as they retreat.
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”
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4 October 2022
Ukraine Notes
The Telegraph Podcast, “Ukraine: the Latest.”
Military Updates
- The Russian defensive line in the south towards Kherson is collapsing at an “incredible rate.”
- The Ukrainians are trying to maintain operational secrecy to protect the offensive.
- The Russians are retreating in masse. They maintain that they are just exhausted.
- Russians like to base themselves in towns. There is therefore a lack of especially mobile infantry surrounding the towns.
- It is being said that the Ukrainians are painting Zs on their vehicles to fool the Russians. This means that they are able to maintain tracking of those vehicles and know that they are friendly rather than Russian.
- This would be a high-tech tracking system.
- Russians are saying that Ukraine is massing troops for an attack on Melitopol, near, just south of Zaporizhzhia.
- Melitopol has been held by the Russians since the beginning of the war. If so, the Ukrainians are trying to cut off the land bridge to Kherson. They are trying to cut off the supply route into Melitopol.
- This is a tactic that the Ukrainians have used successfully.
- This won’t be a quick tumbling of the Russian lines.
- The war is likely to slow down soon because of the weather.
- Kherson is a lot more defended than other cities.
- Zelensky announced liberation of territory. There is liberation of territory in the South.
- Western officials are saying that Ukrainians can wreak havoc within the Russian chain of command. The Ukrainians seem to be calling the tune in the south.
Nuclear Tensions
- There are reports that a train involved in nuclear offensives has been seen moving toward Ukraine.
- This train belongs to the unit involved in nuclear offensives.
- It is likely an example of Putin attempting to show that his remarks about the nuclear threat are serious. He wants the west to know that this is a feasible possibility.
- It is probably that Putin wants this movement to be noted by the West, as part of the threat.
- In Washington Post, the editorial board has posted information about the significance of the tactical nuclear weapons. It includes an analysis of Pentagon planning.
- If tactical weapons are going to be used, it would be days of maneuvering that we could see before an attack. We are not seeing these movements.
- It is the political significance that is important in the movements we can see at the moment.
- Patraus (former CIA) has indicated that there would be a massive conventional response to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
- The evidence would suggest that the Russian elite inner circle is not supportive of the use of nuclear weapons. So, Putin would be risking his own political survival if he tries to take this step.
- Western officials have played down the threat of the use of nuclear weapons and the movement of the trains.
- (Note: Iodide pills have been distributed to Ukrainians around Zaporizhzhia.)
- The Pentagon is doing simulations modeling what might happen if Russia used nuclear weapons. There is talk about destroying the Russian Black Sea fleet.
- There are huge risks for Putin to this step. This would put his personal survival at risk from even his own people. The Russian elite currently support Putin. But, this support is not concrete.
Mobilization
- The decree was to call up at least 300,000 Russian to fight in Ukraine.
- Russians lawyers are working to advise people who are called up.
- Hundreds of thousands of men have fled the country to Georgia and Finland. Many have gone into hiding or are arguing that their religion prevents them fighting.
- There are videos of people advising about breaking limbs to avoid military service.
- The morale levels are not good. There is Russian military kit on the Russian version of ebay. This indicates that Russian commanders are stealing kit and putting it on Ebay for sale. The systematic corruption inside the Russian military is significant.
- Military kit is important as well as warm clothing, sleeping bags, tents. Lack of this will affect morale.
- Analysts are still unsure what the purpose of the call up is. Is it just to fill in lost troops or are they there for developing new military units. Some have only two weeks of training.
- They aren’t going to have the tactical combat knowledge that the Ukrainians have.
- These men are cannon fodder rather than highly trained forces.
Musk
- Suggested a peace plan.
- The reaction has been swift and intense.
- Musk has been popular in Ukraine because of technology he has provided.
- He proposed UN supervised elections in the four occupied regions.
- Zelensky has issued an extremely critical response.
- Another Ukrainian official said: “It is not a voting issue.”
- Musk is delusional about the ability to ensure a fair vote.
- The Kremlin has said that they see this as a possible step. They are seeking an off-ramp to this conflict. The acceptance that they will not take the entirety of Ukraine is very significant.
- Musk’s thinking is common to a thread of thinking in the West. This is becoming increasingly spoken about.
- This is a line of thought echoed by others that Ukraine will never prevail completely, that the costs of the war to the West are increasing, the effort is not possible to sustain. There are misunderstandings in the remarks of Musk.
- Musk is saying that should Russia fully mobilize, they would be in an extremely strong position. There is no reason that a general mobilization will shift the military situation on the ground. This argument is built on a false premise, that the war is unwinnable by the Ukrainians.
- Ukrainians are extremely anxious that this is becoming a popular line of thinking by those in the West.
- (Telegraph article by Fallon on this issue, arguing against Musk. He is expected to argue that there is no sustainable peace plan that doesn’t involve a total ejection of Putin from Ukraine. A frozen conflict is a myth. Putin will seek to continue when his hand is stronger. He has to be defeated decisively.)
- It is not what Musk thinks that is important, but the line of thinking that may be becoming more popular.
- Zelensky has just signed a decree refusing negotiations with Putin.
- Putin signed the Minsk agreement. It froze the conflict and it allowed Putin to build up a stronger foothold in the occupied areas without having to use troops. The idea that Ukraine would again, leave the conflict in a standstill for Putin to strengthen his position, is ridiculous.
- The Ukrainians want to retake all their territory including Crimea. They intend to win on the battlefield.
Energy
- Winter is approaching. There is a meeting between Germany and French leaders. There is growing fear that Germany will use its muscle to outbid the rest of the EU for gas supplies.
- Germany is coming under pressure to help the rest of the EU. Italy and France are accusing Germany of putting its own interests above that of the rest of the EU by outbidding them for gas supplies.
- The positive thing is that there is a discussion being had.
- There is an attempt to stop Russia from profiting from the higher price of oil. They are pushing a price cap.
- The severity of the winter will be crucial. A mild winter could help. Russia has historically relied on winter as a weapon.
- A severe winter could be catastrophic in terms of energy. It would also be bad for the military situation on the ground.
- There must be a movement away from Russian fossil fuel not only for this winter but for the next.
- The southern members of the EU were told by Germany during and after the financial crisis that they should bear the brunt of their bad decision making and implement austerity measures. Now, the southern countries feel that Germany is not bearing the true cost of its own bad decisions about energy.
- It has to be stressed that we are in the position we are in because of deliberate policies by Western leaders over a generation or more. There has been a lack of priority given to energy security in general. It’s not just the decision by Germany and building Nordstream 2.
- Aside from the factor of the treat of nuclear weapons, western leaders have given Putin this weapon of the threat of energy disruption.
- THIS IS AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT POINT.
- Power was sacrificed not only to Russia but to the Middle East. These decisions reflect an arrogance that we are now going to have to recon with. Joe Barnes.
Conclusion
- We have escaped nuclear escalation and the use of nuclear weapons twice narrowly, the Cuban missile crisis and in 1983, one man manning the Russian nuclear station was given permission to launch a strike. He did not.
- These decisions are automated now.
- What Putin is doing is “unbelievable reckless.”
- In northeastern Kherson the Russian front is collapsing. Ukraine might be soon in the position to encircle Russian troops there.
Sunday News Notes:
Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/01/putin-ally-challenges-russian-president-calling-zelensky-nice/
- Founder of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, challenges Putin.
- Prigozhin praised Ukrainian president, Zelensky, on his social media platform.
- “Although he is the president of a country that’s hostile to Russia right now, Zelensky is a strong, confident, pragmatic and nice guy,”
- In a second post, Prigozhin followed up with a warning: “Don’t underestimate him.” The second post was described by the Telegraph as “explaining why he was offering such a discordant view of” Zelensky.
- Prigozhin holds no formal role with the Russian government, but his position has increased in importance as he has funneled more and more soldiers into Ukraine fighting for Russia.
- His statement is not in line with the Kremlin presentation of Zelensky as a drug-addled Nazi. And, it is not the first time Prigozhin has challenged Putin. Earlier he questioned the military’s conduct of the war.
- The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin along with Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has become more vocal in their criticisms of military leaders prosecuting Putin’s war.
- According to the Telegraph: “British lawyers McCue Jury and Partners on Tuesday announced they were bringing legal action against Wagner for “terrorism” in Ukraine, aiming to claim compensation for victims of the mercenary group”
- Prigozhin was filmed in September of 2022 recruiting soldiers in Russian prisons. He promised them they would be freed is they survived six months in Ukraine. He also promised they would be shot if they tried to desert.
- “In another public message, he defended recruiting rapists and murders on the basis that it meant “your sons” would not be sent to the front. Weeks later Putin announced a mobilisation that has sent around 300,000 extra men to war.”
- Telegraph: “The Institute for the Study of War in its latest report on Tuesday said that Mr Prigozhin was “establishing himself as a political force, using his popular status and his affiliation with Wagner to criticise his opponents within elite circles”.
- In testimony to British parliament on Tuesday, Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky confirmed reports of Mr Prigozhin’s special place in Putin’s court, describing him as a “significant tool for the Kremlin”.
- “The number of meetings with the dictator is the only currency that’s in demand in that regime, and Mr Prigozhin has got a lot of those meetings,” said Mr Khodorkovsky, who was released after a decade in Russian prison in 2013, and was formerly the country’s richest man.”