CHILELESS CAT LADY 13 JULY 2026. RUSSIA

LIFE AND NEWS NOTES FROM A CHILDLESS CAT LADY BEAVERING AWAY IN ONE OF THE SUB-BASEMENTS OF THE MINISTRY OF SNARK

Monday 13 July 2026

Trump says the Strait is open. The Strait is closed.

Ukraine

Article: Reuters (7/13/26) “Western leaders agree anti-ballistic missile coalition with Ukraine.”

· Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK have “agreed to establish an integrated anti-ballistic missile coalition with Ukraine.”

Russia

Article: Ma, Jason (7/12/26) “Russia’s economy is an illusion…” Fortune.

· An energy crisis is already ravaging Russia and a banking crisis may come next. “…a mountain of debt weighs on consumers and businesses.”

· State programs encouraged millions of Russians to take out two and three loans simultaneously.

· It is estimated that 10% of corporate loans may not be repaid. The number of Russians who declared bankruptcy jumped by almost a third to more than 500,000.

· Economic moves by the government are obscuring just how bad conditions are.

· A June report by the European Union said: “The situation creates the illusion of a dynamic economy” But in reality what is concealed is “an explosive situation which an economic shock, such as an ambitious package of sanctions against banks…could trigger.”

· “…Russia’s Federal budget deficit ballooned to 6 trillion rubles ($83 billion) by the end of May, more than double 2025’s level….”

· The Sovereign wealth fund is almost dry.

· “The finance ministry is preparing legislation that could let it gain access to $40 billion in pension savings held in privately managed funds. Similarly, the leader of Russia’s Communist Party told parliament recently that 130 trillion rubles held in bank accounts should be mobilized to address the country’s economic and budget woes.

· This leads people to think about how to get their money out and leave.

· Note: This is one reason why announcing the intention for a mobilization of troops could spark another panic where people who can afford to, will take their money and leave just as they did in (2022).

Russia

Article: Sleat, Dan (7/12/26) “Voices: The West is preparing for the wrong…” The Independent.

· Western Thinking. Rests on 2 assumptions. 1st, that “sustained pressure will eventually force Moscow to moderate its behavior. Or that the system is heading towards collapse? Both assumptions misunderstand the nature of pressure building inside Russia.”

· “The security services. The military and the police are all drawing from the same shrinking pool of recruits, creating potential competition inside the very apparatus the regime relies upon to maintain control.”

· The occupied territories. Create another problem “…absorbing administrative capacity and fiscal resources without providing meaningful economic or demographic returns”.

· There are three demands on the coercive mechanism – managing veteran reintegration, policing dissent and maintaining domestic stability.

· The constraints indicate that there will be an increase in “cyber operations sabotage, information campaigns, energy leverage and proxy pressure.” These are cheaper, more difficult to attribute.

· The West should not be thinking of just collapse or moderation but prepare for sustained disruption.

Article: Mead, Walter Russell (6/29/26) “The Russian reckoning.” The Wall Street Journal.

· Russians have been told they were winning a war against a weaker Ukraine. Now, they are short on gasoline and Ukraine is attacking deep into Russian territory.

· Black outs and fuel shortages hobble Crimea.

· Also is the failure of Russia in and around the Black Sea. “In 2022, Russia’s armed forces failed to capture the economically and strategically vital port of Odesa…. Missile strikes, as well as drone attacks by air and sea have forced Russia. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea and neutralized Russian sea power.”

· “Russia. Has largely dominated the Black Sea since the 18th century reign of Catherine the Great… Russian power in and around this vital waterway is significantly weaker than it was in 2022, and the outlook is currently bleak. The longer the war goes on, the more Russian power in the former Soviet republics diminishes. The situation in the Caucasus in Central Asia is moving against Russia… The shifting balance of power is making itself felt in Belarus…. Lukashenko is worried enough about Ukraine’s threats that he is resisting pressure from Mr. Putin to use his territory to assist Russian war.”

· If there is some kind of agreement in the Middle East, oil prices may fall. And there may be a curtailing of Russia’s ability to export due to Crimean attacks. That will create some down shifts in government revenue. Even as the war demands every ruble Mr. Putin can find.

· There is. Russia’s declining population. The failure of its tech industry to reach world class levels. Economic failure since the end of the Cold War. The continuing force of nationalism in the ex-Soviet republics from Kyrgyzstan to Ukraine all week in Russia’s position in the world.

Russia

Article: Lachter, Efrat (7/11/26) “Bringing the war to Putin’s front door…” Fox

· One of the world’s largest energy producers is restricting diesel exports, pursuing fuel imports and confronting shortages from Crimea to cities deep in the country.

· The problem is becoming more and more visible to the ordinary person. Opposition politicians are predicting that this will have an effect on the upcoming DUMA elections. Even though elections in Russia are neither free or fair, they have an effect by signaling public support or lack of it.

· If Putin is shown to have 10% or 20% then people will start asking questions about why he should be appointing governors or controlling the system.

· Seeking rather than exporting oil is also a traumatizing situation. Reuters reported that Moscow approached Kazakhstan about importing gasoline after refinery outages reduced Russian gasoline output by roughly 25% from a year ago.

· One opposition policician noted that Putin would find the oil for the military, it was the people that were the problem and that represents his grip on Russia.

· Every asset used to defend infrastructure deep inside Russia is an asset not being used at the frontlines.

· Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, said American intelligence has played an important role in helping Kyiv penetrate Russia’s extensive air-defense network.”

· US ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk, noted that US intelligence helped Ukrainian missiles and drones avoid Russian anti-missile defense. “”The majority of the Russian leadership understands that this is a crucial problem, but Putin personally does not,” he said. “The distance between him and the rest of the Russian leadership is growing tremendously. Even people he has trusted for many years understand that this is going nowhere, but that will not necessarily bring Putin to the same conclusion.”

· “”Current trends show EU payments for Russian Yamal LNG are on course to reach almost $7 billion in the first half of 2026 alone,” Alexander Kirk, a sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, told Fox News Digital. “These dollars support Russia’s war economy and help sustain Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, including the drone and missile warfare terrorizing Ukrainian cities.”

· The figures capture the dual reality confronting Kyiv: Ukraine can damage refineries, disrupt domestic fuel supplies and force Moscow to divert resources, while Russia continues earning substantial revenue from global energy markets.