WHY NETANYAHU CHOSE NOW

“Israel has electionsscheduled for the fall. It will be the first such vote since Netanyahu presided over the biggest security catastrophe in recent Israeli history: the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, that killed nearly 1,200 people. The Israeli public has not yet had an opportunity to hold him accountable for this failure. (Netanyahu himself has never accepted responsibility.) It is also the first Israeli election in a few cycles where the country’s Arab parties will run together. The so-called Joint List can complicate the coalition math for any Israeli government.”

“Trump, meanwhile, is set to confront midterm elections in the United States. The midterms rarely go well for incumbents, and polling suggests they could be a particularly bad blow to Trump. The president had low favorability ratings even before launching an unpopular war with no apparent exit plan. Just one-quarter of Americans back the Iran conflict, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey. A significant change in Congress, which is currently controlled by Republicans, could limit Trump’s options when it comes to Iran and other issues.

If Netanyahu and Trump’s objective was to fit an Iran war into a window of time where they could operate mostly unchecked, the safest bet was the spring and summer of 2026, if only for electoral reasons.”

Excerpt From

“Why Netanyahu Chose to Strike Iran Now”

Yousef Munayyer

Foreign Policy

https://apple.news/AfsONuXXhTRyyZjGUCVy9Wg

This material may be protected by copyright.

“But another window is closing, too—that of public opinion. Israel is losing the American public. A Gallup poll last month found that, for the first time, more Americans sympathize with Palestinians over Israelis. This trend started well before the Gaza genocide but was very much accelerated by it. It is very likely that the Iran war will lead public opinion to dip even further. Importantly, Israel is also starting to lose Republicans, particularly those of younger generations. The American right has been the foundation of U.S. support for Israel over the past two decades.

A third window has to do with the changing nature of warfare. While covert operations and proxy conflicts have long been the norm between Israel and Iran, conventional war dynamics have shifted in recent years. Israel and Iran exchanged direct attacks for the first time in 2024, when Israel struck an Iranian consulate in Syria and killed a Hamas official in Tehran; Iran then retaliated. They also fought last year during the 12-day war.

Both sides learned lessons about their own vulnerabilities during these exchanges. Iran was increasingly exposed to aerial attacks. Israel, when challenged with a certain combination of projectiles, was also vulnerable

The driving force behind the Iran war was, and has always been, Netanyahu. With several windows closing at once, Netanyahu was staring at the reality that his long-held dream to see the U.S. military bomb Iran may never happen. As the next generation of Americans turns away from Israel, he likely figured he would never see a sucker like Trump in the Oval Office again. It was now or never

This material may be protected by copyright.

Excerpt From
“Why Netanyahu Chose to Strike Iran Now”
Yousef Munayyer
Foreign Policy
https://apple.news/AfsONuXXhTRyyZjGUCVy9Wg
This material may be protected by copyright.