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Palestinians in Gaza, as well as members of the Palestinian diaspora, told NBC News that they fear Israel will use Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack to permanently expel Palestinians from the Gaza strip.
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apple.news/AlL6dZJMbS0izA6uFpsvc-Q
Gaza’s health authority has said at least 5,087 people have been killed in Israel’s two-week bombardment – many of them women and children. The conflict broke out after Hamas militants attacked southern Israeli communities on 7 October, killing 1,400 people and taking 222 into Gaza as hostages.
(Note: gaza health authority is hamas, so take with a grain of salt.)
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Escalating violence could set Israel and Iran on a collision course.
— Read on www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/will-war-gaza-ignite-middle-eastDespite contradictory explanations for the detonation and Washington’s assessment that Israel was not responsible, countries across the region—including Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—squarely attributed the blast to an Israeli airstrike. Protests broke out in cities throughout the Middle East. As tensions rose, Amman cancelled a summit intended to bring Jordanian, Egyptian, and Palestinian leaders together with U.S. President Joe Biden after his visit to Israel.
In an Al Jazeera interview on October 15, Iran’s foreign minister warned that as long as Israel’s campaign in Gaza continues, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened,” adding that if Israel “decides to enter Gaza, the resistance leaders will turn it into a graveyard of the occupation soldiers.” Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has echoed such threats, stating that there shouldn’t be “any expectation” that Iran will hold back militants if Israel’s attacks on Gaza persist. Some Iran experts interpret these statements as political posturing or as an indication that Iran is distancing itself from the actions of its non-state partners, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militant groups in Iraq. But the possibility of open Israeli-Iranian clashes cannot be ruled out, especially as Iranian leaders’ public support for militia attacks narrow the space for deniability.
there is reason to believe that Iran will continue to exercise some caution. Iranian leaders, beset by declining domestic legitimacy and a struggling economy, are concerned with their own survival and do not want to risk a direct conflict with the United States. Indeed, before this war, Tehran and Washington were focused on diplomacy, striking a limited prisoner exchange agreement that led to the unfreezing of some Iranian assets.
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Thursday Morning 19 October 2023
News Notes
Gaza (11:30 AM)
- Humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians, while essential, will not solve the problem.
- I have read that people now think that a two-state solution is no longer even within the realm of reality.
- Several commentators have blamed the press for jumping out too soon and printing veiled claims that Israel was responsible for the bombing of the hospital for the fact that Jordan and Egypt cancelled meeting with Biden.
- 30,000 Hamas military fighters are in Gaza according to Barry McCaffrey.
“The New Economic Security State: How De-Risking will Remake Geopolitics.” Foreign Affairs (10/19/23)
- National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan recently gave a major address about economics.
- His argument was that decades of free-market zealotry had weakened the country’s national security.
- The dependencies built up over decades of liberalism – from supply-chain vulnerabilities in medical equipment, semiconductors, and critical minerals.
- This economic liberalization has not created peace.
- “…a simplistic faith in the magic of markets had hollowed out U.S. industry, welcomed a rising adversary (China) into free-trade arrangements, and riddled global supply chains with critical security vulnerabilities.” (quoted from article)
- In the post Cold War era, politicians prioritized markets over security “hoping that economic liberalism and interdependence would underpin peace.”
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Holding Putin to account will require offering the court more than just intelligence.
— Read on www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-america-join-international-criminal-court-vladimir-putin -
In April 2023, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan begged his listeners’ indulgence for straying out of his lane by delivering a major address about economics. But his actual argument—that decades of free-market zealotry had weakened the country’s national security—was anything but apologetic. “Ignoring economic dependencies that had built up over the decades of liberalization had become really perilous—from energy uncertainty in Europe to supply-chain vulnerabilities in medical equipment, semiconductors, and critical minerals,” Sullivan said.
— Read on www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/economic-security-state-farrell-newman
