Law, Power, and Justice

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  • UKRAINE UPDATE: CRIMEA

    WEDNESDAY 10 AUGUST 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE: UKRAINE: THE LATEST Podcast , The Telegrah

    “Nobody’s going to break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”

    • 168 day.
    • Latest News
    • There was an attack in Crimea yesterday.  This was away from the front line.  This was at a military air base.  There were Russian tourists at the beach and they posted photographs of the blast.
    • Much of the coverage has been kept from occupied regions of Ukraine. 
    • The Russians claimed that it was an ammunition fire.  This does happens because the Russians don’t take care of their munitions.  There is a small chance that it was just a fire.  We don’t think that was what happened.
    • We think it was a Ukrainian attack.  But, we don’t think they have the munitions to reach such a distance.  The US has publicly stated that they have not supplied weapons that can reach this far.  It is thought that it some kind of modified armament.  Perhaps it is a new ballistic missile we have not seen before.  There is also speculation that it is partisan activity. 
    • This is a very long range strike.  It may well influence the fight for the Donbas. 
    • Medvedev has said that any strikes on Russian soil would be “judgement day.”
    • The first time the war has been brought to Crimea.  Raises questions of how long Putin can keep saying that this is a special operation and not a war.
    • Zelensky has said that the war would not be over until Ukraine recaptured Crimea.  It would be a huge undertaking.  You have to go over a bridge to get there.  Kirtz bridge?
    • Russia is struggling to find troops.  This ups the stakes. 
    • If Crimea is non-negotiable, i.e., if the Russians would mobilize their entire forces.  We need to consider the potential for nuclear strikes.  Is the international community prepared for a “small scale” nuclear strike?  Would all Russian oil and gas be cut off?  Would China be pressured to turn off contact?
    • This is not being discussed enough.  It needs to be made clear to Russia what would happen.  We need to take the degree Russia considers Crimea Russian theirs, seriously.  Unfortunately, Crimea needs to be seen differently.
    • In the Washington Post, there was a comment made by an Ukrainian official that the attack on Crimea was by them but not using a US supplied weapon. 
    • Ukrainians mined old railroad tracks because they knew that the Russians had old maps.  The Russians used the rails and were blown up.
    • Russian troops were moved to the South and suddenly their rear was attacked, the military base that was supposed to protect them in their offensive.
    • The Russians fight an old-school war.  Smash up the place with artillery and then move in the soldiers.  The Ukrainians are doing a good job outsmarting them. 
    • Takes away some of the air power that could be used in the Kherson region.  Think it is part of the wider plan.
    • Ukraine has been good at pushing the edges in terms of weaponry that will be supplied, pushing for more and more powerful weapons.
    • We are expecting a statement from the Russians in terms of a splashy attack. 
    • There is going to be immense international pressure for there to be a negotiated settlement in the Fall because of the impact of gas and oil supplies.  Ukraine needs to show now what they are capable of.  Ukraine still has the capability of making this kind of strike. 
    • Ukrainians know that any negotiated settlement with the Russians won’t be worth the paper it is written on.  This is true unless there are specific safeguards from the international community.
    • Any territory held will be used as a launching pad for future Russian attacks. 
    • This attack on Crimea is an important morale booster for Ukraine. 
    •  
    • Amnesty International Report
    • Some of the employees have resigned over the report.  The report is absurd.  They see all war as evil and look at everything through that lens.  It is an idealistic view and one that has nothing to do with reality.
    • It is not a feasible moral position. 
    • The co-founder of Amnesty International Sweden has resigned. 
    •  
    • Questions:
    • Why are we not seeing a lot of UN intervention in this war?  The UN sees themselves as brokering a peace and trying to see that things don’t escalate.  The work they do they have to do behind the scenes.  That’s what they would say.
    • The UN’s purpose is to provide a table for negotiations.
    • Some of their interventions have been horrible.  What is the point of this institution if Russia is on the Security Council with a veto? 

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

    MONDAY 8 AUGUST 2022

    Flashpoint Ukraine (8/8/22) Podcast

    • Zaporizhzhia Power Plant disaster warned of by Ukraine
    • There was an attack on the nuclear power plant by Russia. 
    • The Russians are, of course, blaming the Ukrainians for attacking their own power plant.
    • There is fighting going on around the plant and the Russians are running the plant.
    • There have been explosions near the exterior power line.  Some transformers were shut down.  There was shelling of parts of the plant.  Urgent repairs are needed.  6 August, Russians hitting site.
    • Apparently, they aimed directly at spent fuel tanks stored nears.  Radiation monitoring sensors were affected.
    • The Russians announced that they had mines near the plant and were prepared to blow it up.  The plant will be “either Russia’s or nobody’s.”  Ukraine has confirmed that the area is mined.
    • The ultimate goal is to disconnect the station from Ukraine’s power system and to start using the power for Crimea.  Technically, this is not easy, but it is possible.
    •  
    • Russian Offensive
    • Troops have been moved from Donbas to the south.  In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia you can see that the Russians are getting ready for offensive acts. 
    • There has been fighting in Melitopol.  Russian soldiers killed.
    • There is still a lot of shelling in the Donbas.
    • There has been an attack on the Odesa region launched from the Black Sea.
    • All of Odesa ports are functioning.  A vessel which left is headed toward Italy.  Another is going to the Netherlands. 
    •  
    • Amnesty International
    • Said that the Ukrainians were endangering civilians.  The head of Amnesty Ukraine office resigned over the accusation.
    • Amnesty says it stands by its report.
    •  
    • Anthony Blinken in Africa
    • Lavrov has just left defending Russia’s invasion. 

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: TAIWAN AND UKRAINE

    MONDAY 5 AUGUST 2022

    Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast The Telegraph

    • Visits to Taiwan and Ukraine.
    • Strategic ambiguity is practiced by states.  A common terminology is used, but radically different meanings are understood.  Both can say we agree on the “One China” policy and have different definitions of that.
    • Taiwan was drawn into the American umbrella due to the Korean war.  The leader of North Korea got permission from Stalin was gotten and approval of China for an invasion of South Korea by the North.  The Americans were trying to pursue this strategic ambiguity with regard to South Korea.  The Sec. Of State made a speech noting countries that were in the American defensive realm.  He left out South Korea.
    • The Americans were looking to withdraw their troops from South Korea.  Truman did withdraw troops despite the warnings from the CIA that to do so would probably result in an invasion.
    • American strategic deterrence failed.
    • After that there was a hardening in the American strategic approach.  Taiwan was drawn into the sphere. 
    • Since then, there was knowledge that the Americans would intervene should there by interference in Taiwan.
    • Biden has said on multiple occasions say that the U.S. could come to the defense of Taiwan.
    • The US has been arming Taiwan.  There are concerns that Taiwan relies too much on the U.S. and does not build its own defenses sufficiently.
    • When you let the strength of your deterrence wilt, when you let it be believed that your support for an ally might not be strong, you see others intervene.
    • It’s much cheaper to deter China from invading Taiwan than to deal with it after they do.
    • There was a lot of criticism of Biden when he made clear lines for the Kremlin on what they would and wouldn’t do.  The example is announcing that they wouldn’t provide a “no-fly zone.”
    • There is a danger in being unclear about your intentions.  There is a good argument that had the Americans been stronger about stating their intentions about defending Ukraine, the invasion might not have happened.
    • Truman made it clear in the Korean war that the US was not going to use nuclear weapons.  That clarity in intention may have greatly shaped the tone of the cold war and the reluctance of other countries to use nuclear weapons.
    •  
    • The Republican Party in the US
    • In the past the Republican party was squarely supportive of NATO.  Then, there was Trump.  There was talk about ditching NATO
    • Hawley voted against allowing Sweden and Finland into NATO.  He was criticized by other Republicans like Ted Cruz.
    • Ukraine has revitalized NATO.
    • Pompeo want to Taiwan with Pelosi.  We may have relative consensus on foreign policy.  The problem is what happens if Trump runs again. 
    • In Europe
    • Le Pen has been saying that sanctions were good for Russia and bad for Europe.
    • Turkey has always straddled east and west.  Recently they have brokered the deal about grain.  Some have seen this as a betrayal. 
    • Turkey is using this to gain influence.  A few years there was an attempted coup.  It has become more Islamist and more autocratic.  In some ways this undermines the NATO project.
    • NATO is in the position of criticizing other countries for anti-democratic tendencies and then Turkey is a NATO member.
    • Turkey could have used the situation to lurch more toward the east.  Probably for self-interest it sees that Russia will come out of this situation badly.
    • Erdogan is facing elections soon.  He will have to fight to have the political control he has.  But Turkey is in such a strategic position, especially in the Black Sea.
    • (Book: How to Hide an Empire)
    • US
    • The Democrats are likely to lose control in 2022.  Biden will be in the position of having to issue Executive Orders to get anything done.
    • The American public had lost its confidence in interventionism, and then the Ukraine war started.
    • Russia
    • Russia has had staggering population loss.  It is a society in decline.
    • Peskov has said that Russia is haunted by two holes in its population, the second WW and the break up of the Soviet Union.
    • The Kremlin in characterized by “severe paranoia.”  Putin would like an authoritarian state, to observe every citizen, have every citizen be an informant.
    • The USSR was not plugged into the world economy.  Russia is a country characterized by brain drain, reliant on oil and gas to survive economically.
    • When you have a brain drain, there is a culture of resentment.  Those left behind become resentful of those who have gone to the West.  That decline makes you deeply pessimistic.  This makes you vulnerable to the strong man appeal. 
    • A great many Ukrainians have been deported to Russia.
    • Much of the apparatus for implementing a more suppressive state has been put in place since the invasion of Ukraine.  The censorship of the press, the control of knowledge is essential.  A lot of this has been put in place comprehensively since the invasion.

  • Sen. Bernie Sanders Slams Climate Bill’s Tax Breaks and Subsidies for Fossil Fuel Companies | Democracy Now!

    Sen. Bernie Sanders Slams Climate Bill’s Tax Breaks and Subsidies for Fossil Fuel Companies | Democracy Now!
    — Read on www.democracynow.org/2022/8/4/headlines/sen_bernie_sanders_slams_climate_bills_tax_breaks_and_subsidies_for_fossil_fuel_companies

  • 911 call, court records tell a harrowing story about Black Hammer standoff in Georgia

    ‘I could die any second’: 911 call, court records tell a harrowing story about Black Hammer standoff in Georgia
    — Read on www.ajc.com/news/investigations/i-could-die-any-second/V6DIBNPG35DBBPDXK42ZRESLSY/

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: GRAIN, THE ECONOMY AND WHAT TO WATCH FOR

    2 AUGUST 2022

    UKRAINE: THE LATEST Podcast from The Telegraph

    “Nobody is going to break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”

    It was so loud and I found my granny in the bathroom.  The cat was so scared.  I just found the granny and the cat in the bathroom.  Paraphrased from an interview with a young woman in Ukraine.

    • Day 159
    • Last week on Thursday there was an attack in Donbas, in occupied territories.  They were holding 50 prisoners of war some of them from the Mariupol plant.  Fifty prisoners of war were killed.  This is against the Geneva Convention.
    • They should have been removed from the combat zone.  (Note: Other reports said that the evidence was that the men were moved specifically to this warehouse that was exploded).
    • Russians are blaming the US supplied HIMARS for the attack. 
    • This was a known holding place for prisoners of war.  There is no reason the Ukrainians would have attacked.  It was a precise strike. 
    • HIMARs would have destroyed the entire place.  Part of the building is still in tact. The suggestion is that it was a Russian thermobaric weapon, which causes widespread fire.
    • If these men were from the Avostol plant, and they went home, they would have been celebrated as heroes.  The Russians couldn’t handle the propaganda victory, is the supposition.  (Note: Other reports have noted that if these men were receiving inhumane treatment, this eliminated the evidence of that treatment.  It also disposed of the problem of dealing with fifty captured men.)
    • In a second attack, there was footage of a castration of a Ukrainian prisoner of war with a box cutting knife.  It went out on a Russian TV channel.
    • There are war crimes all along the chain of command.
    • Grain
    • The first ship left with grain from Ukraine, from the port of Odesa.  Russia was receiving pressure to help alleviate some of the world food shortage. 
    • Sixteen ships are ready to go.
    • The plan is for these ships to form caravans and to leave together. 
    • The Russians were claiming a drone attack in Crimea. 
    • What we should expect is that this will continue and then there will be some “mistake” or “accident” and Russia will blame Ukraine for mining the waters. 
    • Ukrainian grain tycoon killed with his wife in shelling.
    • Serbia
    • Border problems with Kosovo. 
    • Arms depot going up in flames in Bulgaria.  Bulgaria expelled a Russian diplomat. 
    • Russia is trying to hit back.  Things aren’t going their way with the grain, they have been forced to allow the grain to go through and they are going to a different place to attack.
    •  
    • In the Donbas field, things have moved little in the past few weeks.
    • Meanwhile in the Kherson region, Ukrainian forces are moving back.  This is not a large offensive, but it is a counterattack. 
    • Russia wants to take the South so that Ukraine cannot be a successful state.
    • The Ukrainians may be building up in the South for an offensive, or maybe trying to make Russians wear themselves out moving troops back and forth between the east and the south.
    •  
    • The impact of the Russian invasion is also on Africa and the Middle East.  This first shipment is going to Lebanon.  Lebanon is in a financial crisis.  Inflation in the UK is 9%, in Lebanon it’s over 200%.  Prices have tripled in a year. 
    • The grain market is also being affected by drought.  Wheat yields will go down in countries like France. 
    • It’s so crucially important to keep this grain corridor from Ukraine going. 
    • If a ship is lost it will affect the willingness of insurance companies to give insurance.
    •  
    • Russian Economy
    • The situation is worse than the Kremlin is admitting.
    • (Note: Foreign Affairs article about the effectiveness of sanctions.)
    • Growth and inflation are bad.  The narrative has developed that Russia is winning the financial conflict.  People have been making this argument that the Russian economy is resilient.  The strength of the ruble is noted.  But, if you can’t spend that ruble, it’s not much of an indicator.  Imports have dropped in Russia. 
    • The Kremlin is reducing the amount of financial information they are releasing.  Yale study indicates that the economy has been disastrously affected.
    • 1,000 western companies have left, it is estimated.
    • The Kremlin has made the economy look better than it is.
    • Undercover market for Russian oil.  Ships offloading oil in the middle of the ocean (dangerous) to get cut level Russian oil.
    • Chinese companies are trying to get their hands on this oil.  Chinese has bought sanctioned oil before.  Iranian oil.  Big Chinese companies are acting with the implicit approval of Beijing.
    •  
    • Ukrainian Economy
    • Ukraine is going to have to go the IMF for funds.  It is surprising that this bail out has not been already approved.
    • This bail out will keep them from having to default on their debts.
    •  
    • Final thoughts:
    • Russia is unlikely to allow the grain corridor to operate for long.

  • Monday 1 August

    Uuuuu

    The exiled Ukrainian governor of Kherson, Dmytro Butrii, said on Monday that some 46 villages in the province had been liberated but some of them had been nearly completely destroyed and were still under Russian shelling.

    The ship carrying grain that left the Ukrainian port of Odesa on Monday, the first since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, also carried fragile hopes that it might stem a global tide of hunger. Ukraine’s bulging stores hold 20 million tons of grain — trillions of trapped calories with the potential to relieve a food crisis that the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, has warned could last years.
    But experts say the immediate impact of Ukrainian grain exports on the global food crisis may be modest — if it is even felt at all.

    Yet funding for humanitarian and development aid lags far behind the need. In Yemen, where 60 percent of the population relies on food aid, aid workers have slashed rations to make them go further.
    “This is the only country where I’ve worked where you take food from the hungry to feed the starving,” said Richard Ragan, the World Food Program director in Yemen.

    And they say that the scale of the crisis — years in the making and fueled by wars, climate shocks and the economic devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic — is so immense that no single advance would be a silver bullet. As many as 50 million people in 45 countries are teetering on the brink of famine, according to the U.N.’s World Food Program. In the 20 worst-hit countries, the situation is likely to worsen substantially by the end of the summer, it said.

    Nikopol, controlled by the Ukrainians, lies on the west bank of the Dnipro River. On the opposite bank sits a gigantic nuclear power plant — Europe’s largest — that the Russian Army captured in March. The Russians have been firing from the cover of the Zaporizhzhia station since mid-July, Ukrainian military and civilian officials said, sending rockets over the river at Nikopol and other targets.

  • Russia

    www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/dmitry-medvedev-journey-liberal-anti-west-hawk-russia

  • UKRAINE UPDATE

    SATURDAY 30 JULY 2022

    UKRAINE

    Occupied Territories

    The Russian government is planning to hold “referendums” in the occupied regions of Ukraine as early as September.  They have already issued passports (newborns are registered as Russian citizens), replaced the currency with the ruble, put internet through Russian servers and arrested hundreds who have resisted.

    The referendums, which will inevitably go in favor of Russia (in Crimea the pro-Russia vote was 97%), will give Putin a reason to declare the areas Russian territory, protected by Russian nuclear weapons, making any attempt to reclaim the territory more difficult.

    It would be the largest territorial expansion by force since WWII.

    They have “invited” residents to join election commissions.  There is a new pro-Russian newspaper in the Zaporizhzhia region.

    “Annexation by force will be a gross violation of the U.N.Charter, said John Kirby, “and we will not allow it go to unchallenged or unpunished.”  Who knows what that means.

    The school curriculum has been changed to a Russian one.  Access to Russian television was considered so important that set-top boxes were distributed and even in some cases delivered to residents.

    The mayor of Kherson spoke in a video interview about the situation.  His assistant was abducted by pro-Russian occupying forces days later.

    Open confrontation seen earlier in the war has largely ended in the occupied regions.  Instead, people go out at night and paint Ukrainian flags on buildings.

    Grain

    Vessels are getting ready to transport the first grain shipments since the war began.  If the grain sits long enough in the ports, it will spoil.

    Russian Prison Camp Bombed

    Ukraine called on the UN and the Red Cross to investigate an explosion that ripped apart a prison camp holding Ukrainian prisoners. 

    Many had fought to defend the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works.  Earlier in the week, the Russian embassy has tweeted out that these men should be hanged and “humiliated.”  They don’t have the problem now.

    A recent graphic video showed a Russian soldier castrating a Ukrainian prisoner.

    There were those who argued that the attack on the prison camp was intended to cover up the torture and mistreatment of the men held there.

    Prisoners recently released from the camp described “hellish conditions.”  There was almost no food and there were regular beatings.

    Gas

    Russia has cut off Latvia from its supply of Russian natural gas.  Latvia had announced that it would pay for the gas in euros not as Moscow demanded, in Rubles.

    Russia had already cut off gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland and the Netherlands and Denmark. 

  • DOJ INDICTS RUSSIAN NATIONAL: IS THIS THE BEGINNING OR THE END?

    WEDNESDAY 27 JULY 2022

    UKRAINE, THE LATEST, Podcast by the Telegraph (7/27/22)

    • Interviews with people on the ground in Ukraine.
    • Kherson, the beginning of a counterattack is possible.  One of the most important bridges has been closed for civilians.  The Ukrainians don’t want to destroy the bridge since they may have to use it.
    • A replacement has been named for the new Prosecutor General after the previous Prosecutor General was removed for not adequately removing Russian collaborators.
    • Discussion with Telegraph Reporter Dom Nichols in Kyiv.
    • People seem to have accepted the fact that the war is going to last over a year, according to polls.
    • The number of people who have no employment has increased.
    • After Bucha there has been a dramatic swing in the number of people who reject diplomacy to end the war.  People fee that Russia wants to eliminate them as a country and they are not interested in negotiating.

    TWITTER:

    • As Russia shells towns in Ukraine, there are graves in the yards.

    THE POWER VERTICAL podcast, (7/20/22)

    • “Ukraine Fatigue” is a serious problem.
    • Approximately 2 million Ukrainians are in the U.S.
    • Interview about maintaining support for Ukraine.

    FRIDAY 29 JULY 2022

    The DOJ has indicted a Russian national for operating three political groups in the US.  I am certain that there are hundreds of Republican groups that could be similarly indicted or named as “unindicted co-conspirators.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/29/russia-influence-ionov-florida-uhuru/

    • Aleksandr Ionov was charged with a “years-long malign influence campaign targeting American politics.”
    • He used American political groups in Florida, Georgia and California to push a pro-Russian agenda and sow discourd.
    • He funded and directed these groups.
    • The groups are not named. (Note: The group in Florida appears to be a black separatist movement.)
    • These groups were, according to the head of the Justice Department’s national security division, turned into “instruments of the Russian government.”
    • Individuals identified as only as unindicted co-conspirators included two Americans who ran for local office. 
    • Ionov wrote to handlers in Russia about managing the campaigns.  He referred to one indieicual as a person “whom we supervise.”
    • He paid for one group to conduct a four-city tour after they submitted a petition to the United Nations at his behest.
    • The group is thought to be “Uhuru House” which is run by the African People’s Socialist Party. 
    • According to one FBI agent this was an attempt to “destabilize and undermine trust in American democracy.”
    • Search warrants in the St. Petersburg area are being executed.
    • Ionov provided the groups with money and advised them.
    • After the invasion of Ukraine, Ionov told his FSB handlers that he had enlisted the Florida group to support Russia in the “information war unleashed.”
    • The group directed by Ionov in California advocated for secession.
    • He is accused of trying to persuade the leader of the group to physically enter the governor’s office in a protest.
    • Ionov also went so far as to provid designs for signs used in a protest by the Atlanta group.

    Justice Department Release

    https://www.justice.gov/sco/pr/russian-national-indicted-making-false-statements-fbi#:~:text=Russian%20National%20Indicted%20for%20Making%20False%20Statements%20to,to%20the%20FBI%20During%20the%202016%20Presidential%20Campaign

    Indictment

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22123468-ionov-indictment

  • UKRAINE UPDATE:

    MONDAY 25 JULY 2022

    UKRAINE: THE LATEST Podcast from the Telegraph

    • The Ukrainians are looking for points of weakness in the Russian forces.  We should see a love of movement in the South.
    • The Ukrainians need to deny the bridges for heavy military equipment but leave them open to civilian traffic.
    • The export of the grain out of Ukraine has to occur with Russian “permission.”  The Russians will try to get concessions in exchange. 
    • Lavrov is saying that they are going to expand the war aims.
    • There is a real problem with insuring these ships
    • We should expect more attacks on Odesa. 
    • The big story is the effect of the HIMARS.  The accuracy is very good.  It has reduced the Russian artillery to a trickle.  It has made a marked difference.
    • Lavrov has said if the West continues to supply the HIMARS, they will expand the war. 
    • This is the sixth month of the war.
    • Zelensky is saying that Ukrainians are advancing into Kherson. 
    • Zelensky has made some remarks about the air defense systems that are needed to counter the Russians.  They need air defense weapons and have not received enough of them.  The equipment has not arrived.
    • Zelensky also announced that at the peak of the fighting the Ukrainians were losing 200 soldiers a day.  This has decreased now.
    • There are debates about what information to release about losses. 
    • A cease-fire with Russia that does not allow Ukraine to have back formerly taken territories by the Russians is unacceptable.
    • The Russians are trying to reconnect with the international community and also benefit financially by the grain deal.  It enables Russia to grandstand in Africa, presenting themselves as the savior of African lives. 
    • Diplomacy is a weapon for the Russians.  It is something that will buy them time. 
    • Germany has turned off streetlights and is rationing energy.  The EU is suggesting targets at decreasing the use of energy for all members regardless of their dependence on Russian oil and gas.  France is against uniform targets in reduction.
    • France and Germany are usually together on policy.  This represents a break.

  • Leaked Audio: Before Election Day, Bannon Said Trump Planned to Falsely Claim Victory – Mother Jones

    “That’s our strategy. He’s gonna declare himself a winner.”
    — Read on www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/07/leaked-audio-steve-bannon-trump-2020-election-declare-victory/. Listen to the part where Bannon says trump will never have to confront a voter again.

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: The Telegraph Podcast Notes

    FRIDAY 22 JULY 2022

    @cjjohns1951

    UKRAINE

    There is supposed to be a deal between Russia and Ukraine to get grain out of the Black Sea ports.  Who knows how this will work.

    Day 149

    UKRAINE, THE LATEST, THE Telegraph podcast

    • We are hearing from Turkey that a deal has been made to get the grain out.  They are expected to sign the deal today.
    • Ukraine will clear the mines and the Russians are not to fire on the convoys.
    • The UN is also involved in these negotiations.
    • Turkey is to inspect the ships on arrival to stifle the Russian fears of arms shipments coming in on the ships.
    • One Ukraine official stated that the deal is with Turkey not with Russians. 
    • This may affect the cost of living in Europe. 
    • This will also play into a concern that Putin is bring brought back into the international fold.  This is a negative consequence.
    • The food crisis benefits Putin and we don’t know why they have been willing to come to an agreement. 
    • This is an attempt at outreach on the part of Putin to the outer world. 
    • Britain’s spy chief has said that Russian forces are exhausted and perhaps Ukraine can launch a counterattack.
    • The U.S. believes that a counterattack is coming.  If it fails or is slow, this will play negatively abroad.
    • Richard Moore, head of MI6, making remarks saying that the Russians will have to pause in the next few weeks.  This is a winnable campaign for Ukraine.  This is highly unusual for MI6 to comment publicly.  They are trying to urge western governments into realizing the seriousness of the situation. 
    • Zelensky seemed confident in his recent statements. 
    • There is talk of a counterattack especially in Kherson.  It was the first major city to be captured by the Russians.  There is a substantial population still there, living under occupation.
    •  
    • Georgian Legion is a group of foreign volunteers from Georgia.  They are mainly ex-professional soldiers.  There are about 800 currently serving.  They have been there since 2014.  It is independent of the Georgian government.
    • In 2008 Georgia had its own war with Russia.  Russia invaded two areas in Georgia to “protect” these areas.
    • The leader of the group is warning volunteers that if they come, they should have military combat experience.  They should also accept the fact that they are on the weaker side.

  • GARLAND, THE MAFIA STATE ENABLER

    @cjjohns1951

    WEDNESDAY 20 JULY 2022

    Gaslit Nation Podcast (7/19/22)

    • In this episode of Gaslit Nation, the podcast opened with a clip of a television interview Bernie Sanders did with some anchor.  She starts rabbiting on and he interrupts her to say what most other Democrats will not say, i.e., that Joe Manchin never intended to support the Biden Climate Plan and that Democrats have to stop talking to him like was serious.
    • Note: It amazes me how few Democrats there are who will actually tell the truth.  When CNN or MSNBC starts to interview a member of congress, I just fast-forward through the segment.  It is almost always a waste of time.  None of them (with a few exceptions) can even talk without sounding like a staff edited version of a focus group tested script. 
    • In this interview Sanders also pointed out the obvious (but again unsaid) fact that Manchin receives massive contributions from fossil fuel interests and from Republican billionaires. 
    • Note: Biden should make sure that the locks on Manchin’s office doors are changed, have his parking slot taken away, arrange for Machin’s wife to lose her cushy position, start telling people what Machin’s daughter does to make a living, take Manchin off all his committees, and primary him, for a start. 
    • Sanders reacted with the disdain that every Democrat should demonstrate when the host says that Manchin argues that he’s concerned about West Virginia.  “Really, reaalllllly,” Sanders says.  But most of the rest of the Democratic party is concerned about being nice.
    • Sanders continued that statements like the one made by Manchin were “…the same nonsense that Manchin has been talking about for years.”  West Virginia is one of the poorest states in the country.  “Ask the people of West Virginia.”  Sanders concluded.  “Manchin represents the wealthy not the working people of this country.”
    • Note: It is obvious why the Democratic Party would rather blow up the world rather than have a progressive like Bernie Sanders leading the party.
    • Gaslit Nation is a podcast about “rising autocracy around the world.”
    • Sarah Kenzior describes Merrick Garland is a “mafia state enabler.”
    •  And notes that this may be the last free election we have if the Republicans assume power.
    • She notes the North Carolina gerrymandering case to be decided by the Supreme Court next year.
    • Kenzior notes that Garland’s use of the Barr memo to restrict DOJ cases which might (in some conceivable world) appear “political,” is much like the OLC memo Mueller hid behind to keep from having to indict Trump for crimes he himself detailed in his report. 
    • Garland, she concluded, is taking his cues from Barr. 
    • Garland is labelled as an “institutionalist,” but the institution he is leading is rotted and corrupt and complicit.  It was so when Barr was AG at the end of the Bush administration. 

  • FRESH HELL THAT DEMOCRATS WON’T DO ANYTHING ABOUT UPDATE

    @cjjohns1951

    WEDNESDAY 20 JULY 2022

    Fresh Hell

    Majority Report (7/19/22)

    • Manchin
    • Manchin killed the Biden climate package.  It is in Joe Manchin’s financial interest that climate change is not addressed. 
    • There is very little leverage with Manchin. The more he tells the Democrats he is going to destroy their agenda, the more his popularity in West Virginia rises. 
    • Manchin was pushing a tax on “pass through” entities.  He was evidently not aware that a lot of businesses use this structure. This tax was going to fund climate change programs.  Monied interests complained to Manchin, so he pulled his support from his own proposal. 
    • Manchin is one of the most corrupt members of Congress.  He and his wife secured funding for a new conservation area that just happened to adjoin their vacation property.  (Note: His wife has been appointed to a profitable job as part of the courting of Manchin and Manchin’s daughter has also engaged in controversial deals.)
    • (Note: When Biden gave the Rose Garden speech recently, Manchin hung around like a groupie trying to shake hands with Biden.  Unlike MSB, he didn’t seem to get even a fist bump.)
    • Majority Report did an interview with Ryan Grim about Manchin (7/15/22). 
    • Biden is “on the brink” of declaring a climate emergency.
    • Roe
    • More horror stories come to light as women with difficult pregnancies are unable to get adequate medical care because hospitals and doctors are afraid of running afoul of the new abortion laws.  Women, in some instances, are allowed to not only suffer but become dangerously ill waiting for a condition where doctors feel comfortable giving them medical care.  Fearing litigation patients are allowed to worsen until their lives are in jeopardy.  This is occurring even in situations where there is no viable fetus.
    • The belief behind these laws is that pregnancy, illness, spontaneous abortions are the will of God.  If the woman dies, that’s just the will of God.  We are all being dragged into the hell of their religious beliefs.  These laws reflect a desire to punish.  “They are fundamental theocrats,” says Sam Seder.  They get to decide what God wills.
    • Other fresh hell
    • Biden’s polling numbers are dismal.  Democratic candidates are doing better than Biden.
    • COVID is on the rise.
    • Because of objections by Rand Paul (?) Chad Meridith has been dropped for a federal judgeship.  This story gets more and more weird.  (What the f..k was this about?)