Johnson is stepping down. His support for Ukraine has been very important.
He was one of the most proactive leaders in sending weapons to Ukraine. He was supporting Ukraine with vocal criticism and weapons while Germany was sending 5,000 helmets.
There is a wing of the Labor Party that is not supportive of Ukraine. It is possible this is nostalgic support. This is a long-term concern if Labor was to come to power after a general election.
Dom Nichols, Telegraph Reporter
Support for Ukraine is secure with Conservatives at the moment.
Russia has not made any territorial gains today. They have fired missiles and people killed, but there have been no efforts to take ground.
Both sides are exhausted.
Russian ammunition dumps that have gone up in flames in occupied areas. This may be the effect of heavy artillery coming into Ukraine.
There is an operational pause from Russia.
The result is lobbing weapons at civilians in a random fashion.
A “culmination” is when you are not being pushed backwards but you are exhausted and not able to push forward. It is thought this characterizes Russia at the moment.
If it has taken all this just to gain this bit of territory in Donbas, it is impressive.
They’ve taken the northers region of Donbas, but not the South.
It should take a few weeks to get going again. But, all the time, there is an inflow of arms from the West.
The Kremlin may push taking territory no matter what the cost. This may be the best decision rather than waiting and allowing more weapons to arrive.
What is important to watch is whether this pause lasts.
Human Rights Lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk, answering questions.
She has been documenting war crimes by the Russians.
Russia is claiming that 2 million people have experienced forced relocation. Some of them have left because they have no other alternative. Stay here and die or go to Russia.
Russians do not let humanitarian assistance into occupied territories.
There are not enough people or resources to investigate and prosecute these cases.
Be ambassadors for the idea that justice matters.
Russians enjoyed impunity for decades. Troops were not punished for atrocities they committed in other countries. This is a “circle of impunity.”
There are estimates that both sides have lost tens of thousands of soldiers killed and wounded. The Pentagon has declined to discuss its assessments of deaths and military losses.
Some analysts feel uncomfortable with the US reluctance to talk about losses because of years of rosy assessments during the twenty years the country was fighting in Afghanistan.
“Successive administrations insisted Afghan forces were “in the lead” even as their performance was often deeply flawed, and their survival depended on U.S. logistical support and air power.”
There has been criticism about American military officials patting themselves on the back for the weapons and support sent, while not acknowledging that they could be sent more quickly.
As one Ukrainian lawmaker said: “We need a lot of this for yesterday, not even tomorrow.”
Conservative analysts (from Defense Priorities) are arguing that Ukraine’s objective to push Russians out of Ukrainian territory seem “increasingly unrealistic.” They advocate the Biden administration pressing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia and strive for a political settlement.
Benjamin Friedman, policy director for Defense Priorities has stated 1) hardly anyone wants Ukraine to cede territory, 2) you have to “assess the situation honestly” and trade peace for territory, 3) more should be done to pressure Ukraine. Friedman sees himself and his organization as working for the benefit of the Ukrainians and others who are “suffering economic problems because of the war.”
Friedman accused the government of “spinning for Ukraine.”
Then, Representatives like Ro Khanna (D-Calif) are warning about getting involved in a “prolonged never-ending conflict that is wreaking havoc on the American economy and the global economy.” (Note: He sounds as if he thinks this involvement is optional.)
Khanna has stated that he believes “we should declare victory for the president’s efforts…We should say we won. The Russians lost. They did not achieve their fundamental objective.” People, he said, are not resigned to support Ukraine at all costs.
Russia has seized Lysychansk which brings them close to seizing the entire Donbas.
Zelensky says that while the situation in Lysychansk is difficult, it has not fallen.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey maintains that Turkish customs has detained a Russian-flagged vessel carrying grain stolen from Ukraine.
Russian attacks on Kharkiv.
While Belarus is not a “direct participant” in the war it is providing logistical support to Russia.
Russian forces attacking Kramatorsk
Russian proxies have said that they will hold a referendum on annexing Kherson Oblast to Russia. They are trying to legitimatize the occupation.
The UK Defense Ministry states that the Kremlin is trying to find a pseudo-constitutional solution for the occupation and is prepared to rig the vote in order to show an acceptable result.
Some 800,000 Ukrainians have lost homes in the war.
Protests in Uzbekistan.
Ukrainian forces launch air strikes on Russian-occupied Melitopol.
The Russians are claiming a Ukrainian attack was made on Belgorod.
Russian websites are full of claims that Ukraine is “overrun by far-right extremeists.”
Ukraine announces that Russian missile was fired at a recreational center in Odesa.
Voice of America maintains that nearly 16 million Ukrainians need humanitarian aid and protection.
UN agencies say that millions of Ukrainians are facing a lack of basic necessities including food, water, and shelter.
EUROMAIDAN PRESS
Ukraine destroys remnants of Russian garrison on Snake Island.
Russian shelling of Sloviansk.
Lukashenka has accused Ukraine of launching milliles at Belarus.
Russian forces have destroyed the administrative buildings in Lysychansk.
There are eight Ukrainian mayors in Russian captivity. Usually, Russia kidnaps “mayors and village heads who refuse to collaborate.”
Mariupol teachers are being sent to Russia for “certification.” (Note: In Florida, De Santis is sending elementary school teachers for indoctrination.)
Podcast: The Kremlin File with Jessikka Aro, Finnish journalist and author of “Putin’s Trolls.”
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Jessikka Aro started researching Russian trolls as far back as 2014. She was subsequently trolled, harassed and eventually had to move out of Finland.
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Aro was trying in 2014 to write about the aggressive movements of Russia against Ukraine.
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She discovered places where trolls were employed to influence public narratives.
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These troll farms were used as information warfare. They are snipers who go after individual computer users on the behalf of the Kremlin.
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They market ideas to individuals.
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The trolls were already attacking Russians inside Russians. Every morning they would be given themes and have to write posts about these themes.
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Recruitment ads for the troll factories, were looking for copywriters who knew English. These people were recruited to write “political news.”
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These trolls were working also in Finland.
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They were attacking Ukraine, sending pictures of dead people and blaming Ukraine.
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They would go after a blogger and start harassing and calling names and molding their messages.
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They monitor what individuals say online and go after them if they don’t like what’s being posted.
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After Aro left Finland lived abroad for two years. When she published her first investigation of the troll farms, she was targeted, and the police warned her that she might be subjected to violence. Her colleagues were turned against her. People were brainwashed into believing that she was a mentally ill threat to Finnish security, or a CIA agent, or working for the British.
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She ended up being essentially locked in her own home. She was told by the police to check for objects under her car.
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These troll farms also worked to get people to hate Ukraine.
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Prigozhin, Russian oligarch, runs the IRA based in St. Petersburg. He also leads the Wagner Group (add information).
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They are working in Africa and India as well.
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These trolls were active in the international information space.
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They would link to Russian government information and narratives.
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About Ukraine, the narrative was that the government was filled with fascists and war mongers.
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The trolling was laying the groundwork internationally for the genocide in Ukraine even in 2014. They were trying to brainwash people that Russians had nothing to do with aggressively intervening in Crimea.
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Russian young men have been weaponized with this information. They think Ukrainians don’t have human rights. They have been dehumanized.
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“They have no problem going to Ukraine and raping and killing.”
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This activity started picking up right around the time Yanukovych had to leave.
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They operate around the clock.
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The cites that had been spreading the anti-Ukraine narratives started distributing pro-Trump and anti-Hillary information. Hillary was a pedophile.
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They are designed to lure different kinds of audiences.
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(Note: Look at those western professionals who were on RT).
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There is still not enough counter activity by Western intelligence services. This is a form of warfare.
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They unmask people who cooperate with agencies and create conspiracy stories about them.
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In an early case, they targeted veterans.
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Early on there was a diplomat targeted in mid-2000s. Lithuanian foreign affairs, worked in. Russia was using Belarus as a testing ground. He was followed for helping the Belarus opposition. They intercepted his phone line. His phone conversations, edited, were posted publicly. 2013, eight years after initial targeting. He was in Hungary, helping Russian activists, and his phones were intercepted, and the conversations put on Utube. He was disgraced and his career destroyed. Later, they found that it had been a Russian security service operation.
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The operations-built support for far right political groups in Finland. They put out racist narratives against immigrants and Jewish people.
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They are really good at cultivating their targets for decades. They are playing long term. They are cultivating individuals and communities. They want these communities committing violence and protest. Then, they blame the Western systems.
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There are just not enough resources being directed at countering this form of intellectual warfare.
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In the same way the US made public what Russia intended to do right before the invasion of Ukraine, they should have made public what they were doing before the 2016 election, telling people that they were being manipulated by the Russians.
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There are heavily trained officers attacking us 24 hours a day and they are not being countered.
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It’s too scary and people want to protect themselves from the understanding of the importance of these troll farms. In 2014, there were even governmental officials who would not believe the existence of the troll farms or their importance. They thought it was conspiracy theory and was too “sci-fi”.
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Now, the Russians seem to have taken all the masks off.
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There seems to be no plan to do anything about this still-existing threat. How do you tell people they are being used as useful idiots to Russian security services.
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People don’t understand that what is going on in Ukraine is a security threat. (Hell, they don’t understand that a coup is a threat to security.)
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Russia shifted in 2013 to attack every European election. Brexit, U.S., French elections.
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The language is the same (rapists, immigrants, shit-hold countries).
UKRAINE UPDATE: UKRAINE, THE LATEST, The Telegraph
Boris Johnson was making fun of Putin in public remarks. He was filmed talking to Macron joking about taking off their tops and riding around on horseback. When asked about these comments he doubled down on them and called it a “crazy macho war.”
Another official, Defense Secretary, was talking about Putin and “small man syndrome.” Said Putin has a toxic view of the world.
Finland and Sweden are joining NATO. Turkey gave up its opposition to the two countries joining. Sweden changed its terrorism legislation in response to Turkish problems with the PKK.
There were changes in restrictions on arms to Turkey. Extradition requests procedure was changed as well. There would be no support for the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Unit. This was seen as a key concession.
There were concerns about fighter planes and U.S. approval. It is thought that perhaps in a phone call between Biden and Erdogan, there may be a deal about fighter jets.
Kaliningrad is now surrounded by NATO.
Biden is going to meet with Erdogan on Wednesday.
Francis Dearnley: This may not be quite as much a victory for Turkey as has been suggested, certainly by Turkey. The language is very bureaucratic. It has forced Turkey to make a fundamental choice, to be a thorn in the side of NATO unity or become a member of the club. We have ended up in the later space. Turkey can no longer be the broker between Russia and the West.
The mayor of Kherson has been detained and taken away. This is what is happening in the occupied regions. They had threatened to arrest him if he didn’t go along with their demands. He refused to go along. This is another example of the repression of the democratic elements in the occupied areas. They called him a “poster boy for the Nazi community.” “Finally, he has been neutralized.”
Russians are running out of precision guided missiles. One of the older missiles is evidently one of those that hit the shopping center. This means more civilians being killed. (Note: I don’t see how you could hit more civilians than they are already hitting.)
Zelensky posted a video of a missile hitting the shopping center. The Russians claim that the mall was used to store weaponry.
This weaponry is unethical because it is so out of date.
NATO territory is going to expand. This would have seemed impossible even a few months ago. If the intent was to splinter the West and create fear of challenging Russia, it has backfired. Some still want to bring Russia into the fold. But, after the G7 there is a broad agreement. This is, however, about future escalation and does little about the present conflict.
UKRAINE, THE LATEST, Notes from the PODCAST of the Telegraph
Day 125
There are street battles around Lisichansk (across the river from Sieverodonetsk, which the Russians took a few days ago.)
NATO has agreed to increase the number of troops available on high alert.
G7 has agreed to explore imposing a ban on transporting Russian oil sold over a certain price.
Macron said the Russian strike on the shopping center was a war crime.
He also stated: “Russia cannot and must not win this war.” (Note: This is a welcome change from his “Putin must not be humiliated” stance of a few weeks ago).
Hacker group claims to have cut off 70% of Lithuanian internet. (Note: Check this for specifics).
As many as a 1000 people were shopping when attacked at the center in Kremenchuk, Ukraine. The death toll is now at 18, with 59 wounded. The Russians claim that the target was a depot with weapons and ammunition from the US. They claim the bombing sparked a fire at the shopping center and caused the damage.
This city is not on the front lines and the attack seems to be a symbolic statement much like the attacks on Kyiv at the beginning of the G7, that Russia can attack anywhere.
Considering the condemnation, there is debate on whether this as a tactic is worth it. It only hardens the resolve of those defending.
Head of the British Army has likened the current defense situation to the situation Britain was facing in 1937.
Saunders referred to 1937 in a speech and said that Britain must be willing to fight and win.
His comments were summarized as: We must not commit a failure to contain Russian expansion. Appeasement policy let Hitler get away with seizing parts of Austria, and Czechoslovakia. We must not allow something similar to happen here.
33,000 Russians are dead, missing or captured. 4,700 civilians are dead. We can see the destruction now. Russia is a clear threat. Our choices will influence our future.
Saunders talked about Russian military capacity. It is dangerous, he argued, to assume that Ukraine is a limited conflict. That something can be done to end it and that will be that. It is, instead, a larger threat.
It’s worth remembering that Russia often starts wars badly. It can suffer and regenerate and ultimately prevail. We need to think about this in the long term.
There was no reference to the nuclear question in Saunders’ statement. The reporter noted that there is the assumption that there would be a controlled nuclear war if there was a further invasion.
The reporter maintained that were it not from the nuclear question, we would probably have gone to war over Ukraine. The nuclear question completely changed that. But, Saunders’ statement does not mention this.
Saunders argued that war could have been deterred in 1937 if it weren’t for appeasement. We must not do the same thing here.
The reporter had a conversation with a Western intelligence advisor who argued that history teaches us we cannot “humiliate” the aggressor. Reporter would challenge this notion. Even after WWI, the economic implosion was much more important than any “humiliation” of Germany. The reporter thinks this is a flawed notion.
NATO: What’s on the agenda.
This will be the most historic overhaul since the war. Baltic states fear that Russia could invade.
The plan is to increase to 300,000 troops on high-alert in the area. They will not be on the front lines. And, they will not be in place until next year.
These troops will, in 24 hours – 30 days, be able to react to a strike in Europe.
NATO in general has developed a more hawkish attitude. There is much tougher language even about China in NATO statements. There is increased concern about the dependence of Britain and the US on China for technology.
There will be pledges of new weapons systems, training missions.
There are discussions about whether Russia run out of munitions this summer, troops? There are reports that they are using retired military leaders because they have lost so many.
There is disagreement about who this attritional war benefits. Some argue that the Ukrainians have to change to an aggressive war from a defensive war. It seems that even though a few weeks ago, there were question about whether the West would have sufficient morale to go through with this, these doubts have eased. We have seen a shift to make predictions that NATO moral will hold up.
There were dialogues between Macron and Putin released recently. Putin batted away an idea proposed by Macron of a summit with Biden. It would appear that for the moment, G7 has repudiated this “Putin can’t be humiliated” perspective.
Others argue that the slow trickle of weapons is creating the stale-mate. It was proposed that Biden should tell Putin to start pulling out or they would give Ukraine the weapons to attack Russia.
30 leaders talking about what more they can do to help Ukraine.
They could bring Ukrainian army up to NATO standards.
Turkey’s objections to Sweden and Finland. Relationship with the PKK.
Britain to announce commitment to Estonia’s defenses.
In Summary:
Saunders (British military leader): “If you want to avert conflict, you have to be prepared to fight.” It is likely that Russia will be more of a threat after Ukraine whatever the outcome. We will never be in the Europe before this war started. Russia has taken a part that we cannot extract it from. The likelihood is that, even if Putin is deposed, it will be another similar style leader.
There has been a catalogue of foreign policy errors that have gotten us in this mess. We must think about those mistakes and also about the “emergent autocratic threats” around the world. There is, unfortunately, still a mentality of this being a short term war, that if we just stop the tanks and keep Russia contained, things can go back to normal. We can not go back to where things were before the war. This war against Ukraine has changed the world in ways we cannot even imagine.
“Nobody is going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians.”
Ukraine is planning to pull out of Sieverodonetsk city. It appears there is no other option. To the south, Russia has made some advance and could have cut off Ukrainian troops.
Day 121
The costs of these small Russian gains have been at great cost to both sides.
When Russia was pushed out of the North, he said the liberation of the Donbas was the real goal.
Had the Russians kept moving westward in the south, they might have done better rather than changing focus onto the Donbas. We think this is about Putin’s ego.
This fight in the Donbas has given the Ukrainians time to wait for Western weapons.
Article about hollow victory for Russia (Telegraph)
There has been a lot of resistance in the South. There was a car bomb today that killed the head of a department, known as pro-Russian, installed as part of the occupying regime.
Sunday Telegraph article about Russians trying to establish educational curriculum.
Zelensky is thinking of sacking a government official. They were underprepared in the South and that area fell early. He is close friends with this appointment. People thought that closeness was the reason he was appointed. This is perhaps in reaction to the EU candidacy, the cronyism of the appointment.
Lithuania has blocked some goods being imported into Kaliningrad. Russia threatened reprisals and called it a “blockade.”
There is a train that travels from Moscow to Kaliningrad every day. This train has been stopped before being allowed to go on. The Lithuanians are searching the train. Passengers are therefore on the train for longer and the Lithuanians are offering a free wifi service in Russian, only there are graphic images of dead in Ukraine, a method of information warfare.
The Lithuanians have few English speakers. Russians keep coming back and forth across the border. They are afraid that they are going to be involved in the war.
There is a lot of exchange between Lithuania and Kaliningrad.
Lithuanians support Ukraine.
EU Candidacy Status
Some worry that this is a “fig leaf” this offer of candidacy status.
After Zelensky thanked the members for this vote, there was a statement made about this status being permanent?
Denmark raised a number of questions about a questionnaire Ukraine filled out. There are a lot of quibbles and objections.
Heavy shelling in the last few days. The eastern part of the Donbas is being destroyed. Ukraine has had to pull out of several hamlets.
More shelling in Kharkiv.
Precision artillery is now in Ukraine from the West. That’s good news, more long-range artillery. Germany is now supplying armaments.
There is a growing resistance, a leader in a self-proclaimed region near Kherson (Chernobayevka) has had his car bombed. He was not, however, killed.
Germany has an emergency gas plan. This involves reactivating the coal plants that were closed. Green politicians are having a hard time being the face of reopening coal plants. The government is requesting that people reduce their use of electricity. There is a big cut back of the gas coming through the Nordstream pipeline. Putin has made this cut back by almost 40%. He is putting pressure, conscious effort to squeeze the West. A further step would be to bring in rationing. Business lobbies are very much against this. If Putin continues to pressure the flows, this might be necessary.
Some countries have already been cut off by Russia, but they are less dependent than Germany.
German armaments are on the way.
EU
EU candidacy status for Ukraine and Moldova. The decision is expected today. Russia is not going to be able to take the entire Donbas. Then, there will be an operational pause and come back later. If in the meantime, both countries achieve EU status, will this call an end to it? Does the EU need a defense agreement?
GRAIN
Damage in Mykolaiv, grain storage. It’s difficult to work, to store the grain and to distribute it.
There are talks but not much progress. There are still rocket attacks on the grain storage facilities. That doesn’t indicate progress.
UKRAINE: THE LATEST, THE TELEGRAPH Podcast, 6/22/22
On Twitter at @cjjohns1951
“Everything that can burn is on fire.”
“It’s been very violent.” The Donbas is still getting an “absolute pounding.”
Extreme pressure on Sieverodonetsk.
Forces of the DPR have lost 55% of its original strength.
Snake Island
Ukrainians are conducting a counter-attack on Snake Island. Extensive damage to the island. Ukrainians claim to have attacked and damaged an anti-aircraft system. The Russians are denying the severity of the attack.
Ukrainians are using western weapons in the attack.
Lithuania. EU sanctions prevent the transport of some Russian goods. Threats are that ordinary Lithuanians will be affected. The response will not just be diplomatic, say the Russians. The word that was used was “practical measures.”
Boris Johnson has made a statement about any peace that might come out. He is urging other countries not to push the Ukrainians to accept a sub-par deal.
There has been a delivery of German weapons. There have been criticisms that Germany has been very slow in supplying weapons.
Drones.
A drone flew inside Russia a significant distance from the front lines. Crashed into an oil refinery. Significant damage. It could be a drone captured from Russia and returned to it. The Russian air defense may have mistaken the drone for one of theirs. Could be a false flag, unlikely.
A smaller drone crashed in northeastern Turkey. This type of drone can be up in the air for hours. The drones can go wrong.
Mariupol. What life is like in Mariupol, occupied by Russians. Article in the Daily Telegraph. Warehouses that used to house fruits and vegetables now house corpses. They are surrounded by flies. Hunger is an increasing problem.
People are concerned that the West will forget about them. They are living with the possibility of death every day. A man who worked as a hospital clown before the war is working to get people out and cheer them up. There is a lack of supplies and medical supplies. “Everyone’s doing their best.” People are dying because of a lack of trained medics.
Marlene Dietrich: “I miss what people are like when they are trying to be brave.”
Elderly people have nowhere else to go. Disabled people have special problems. One woman, 92, said: “I just want to die.”
Separatists are being sent into the war by the Russians without equipment, body amour. Ukrainians were having to fire on these men and then Russians knew where they were. What a cynical tactic.
What is the state of information in Poland (where one of the reporters is after leaving Ukraine)?
The Poles are worried about the proximity of the military action. When you cross the border, you are immediately away from the intense environment of Ukraine. It’s very hard to imagine what it’s like on the ground in Ukraine once you leave.
Ukraine has been so good about putting out information during the war. When Macron and Scholtz came, Ukrainians appreciated the attention. They want to stay in the headlines, to let people know that they are in this for the long run. There was concern that there would be pressure on Zelensky about a peace deal. The public mood is very much against that.
They don’t think Putin would stop there no matter what you give him.
There were jokes about Johnson being jealous about Macron kissing Zelensky on the cheek.
Yesterday there was a report that Ukraine had detected spies, one a business leader and one a senior government official. In Kyiv, they were imparting information to the Russians. They were detained. At the start of the war, there were thought to be sleeper agents looking for Zelensky. There is still this hunt on for these people who are providing information to Russia. They are using online gaming to get information to Russia. There is a big effort by the Russians to keep these people going.
Final thoughts: Snake Island effort by Ukraine. There is an uptick on violence. That island is critical.
The message on the ground is please don’t forget about us.
