Law, Power, and Justice

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  • Ukraine Pulls Out of Sieverdonestk

    FRIDAY 24 JUNE 2022

    THE LATEST Ukraine: The Daily Telegraph

    “Nobody is going to break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”

    • Ukraine is planning to pull out of Sieverodonetsk city.  It appears there is no other option.  To the south, Russia has made some advance and could have cut off Ukrainian troops.   
    • Day 121
    • The costs of these small Russian gains have been at great cost to both sides.
    • When Russia was pushed out of the North, he said the liberation of the Donbas was the real goal. 
    • Had the Russians kept moving westward in the south, they might have done better rather than changing focus onto the Donbas.  We think this is about Putin’s ego.
    • This fight in the Donbas has given the Ukrainians time to wait for Western weapons.
    • Article about hollow victory for Russia (Telegraph)
    •  
    • There has been a lot of resistance in the South.  There was a car bomb today that killed the head of a department, known as pro-Russian, installed as part of the occupying regime. 
    • Sunday Telegraph article about Russians trying to establish educational curriculum.
    • Zelensky is thinking of sacking a government official.  They were underprepared in the South and that area fell early.  He is close friends with this appointment.  People thought that closeness was the reason he was appointed.  This is perhaps in reaction to the EU candidacy, the cronyism of the appointment.
    •  
    • Lithuania has blocked some goods being imported into Kaliningrad.  Russia threatened reprisals and called it a “blockade.”
    • There is a train that travels from Moscow to Kaliningrad every day.  This train has been stopped before being allowed to go on.  The Lithuanians are searching the train.  Passengers are therefore on the train for longer and the Lithuanians are offering a free wifi service in Russian, only there are graphic images of dead in Ukraine, a method of information warfare. 
    • The Lithuanians have few English speakers.  Russians keep coming back and forth across the border.  They are afraid that they are going to be involved in the war.
    • There is a lot of exchange between Lithuania and Kaliningrad.
    • Lithuanians support Ukraine. 
    •  
    • EU Candidacy Status
    • Some worry that this is a “fig leaf” this offer of candidacy status.
    • After Zelensky thanked the members for this vote, there was a statement made about this status being permanent?
    • Denmark raised a number of questions about a questionnaire Ukraine filled out.  There are a lot of quibbles and objections.

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: EU Membership Status to be Announced Today

    THURSDAY 23 JUNE 2022

    Article: Arrests in Ukraine

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/moscow-legislator-jailed-after-opposing-action-in-ukraine/2022/06/21/1f92622a-f187-11ec-ac16-8fbf7194cd78_story.html

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    UKRAINE, THE LATEST, PODCAST, THE DAILY TELEGRAPH

    • Day 120
    • Heavy shelling in the last few days.  The eastern part of the Donbas is being destroyed.  Ukraine has had to pull out of several hamlets.
    • More shelling in Kharkiv. 
    • Precision artillery is now in Ukraine from the West. That’s good news, more long-range artillery.  Germany is now supplying armaments. 
    • There is a growing resistance, a leader in a self-proclaimed region near Kherson (Chernobayevka) has had his car bombed. He was not, however, killed.
    • Germany has an emergency gas plan.  This involves reactivating the coal plants that were closed.  Green politicians are having a hard time being the face of reopening coal plants.  The government is requesting that people reduce their use of electricity.  There is a big cut back of the gas coming through the Nordstream pipeline.  Putin has made this cut back by almost 40%.  He is putting pressure, conscious effort to squeeze the West.  A further step would be to bring in rationing.  Business lobbies are very much against this.  If Putin continues to pressure the flows, this might be necessary.
    • Some countries have already been cut off by Russia, but they are less dependent than Germany. 
    • German armaments are on the way. 
    • EU
    • EU candidacy status for Ukraine and Moldova.  The decision is expected today.  Russia is not going to be able to take the entire Donbas.  Then, there will be an operational pause and come back later.  If in the meantime, both countries achieve EU status, will this call an end to it?  Does the EU need a defense agreement?
    • GRAIN
    • Damage in Mykolaiv, grain storage.  It’s difficult to work, to store the grain and to distribute it.
    • There are talks but not much progress.  There are still rocket attacks on the grain storage facilities. That doesn’t indicate progress.
    • Grain prices are starting to ease. 

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: “Everything that can burn is on fire.” “Please don’t forget about us.”

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: “Everything that can burn is on fire.” “Please don’t forget about us.”

    WEDNESDAY 22 JUNE 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    UKRAINE: THE LATEST, THE TELEGRAPH Podcast, 6/22/22

    On Twitter at @cjjohns1951

    “Everything that can burn is on fire.”

    • “It’s been very violent.”  The Donbas is still getting an “absolute pounding.”
    • Extreme pressure on Sieverodonetsk. 
    • Forces of the DPR have lost 55% of its original strength. 
    •  
    • Snake Island
    • Ukrainians are conducting a counter-attack on Snake Island.  Extensive damage to the island.  Ukrainians claim to have attacked and damaged an anti-aircraft system.  The Russians are denying the severity of the attack.
    • Ukrainians are using western weapons in the attack. 
    •  
    • Lithuania.  EU sanctions prevent the transport of some Russian goods.  Threats are that ordinary Lithuanians will be affected.  The response will not just be diplomatic, say the Russians.  The word that was used was “practical measures.”
    •  
    • Boris Johnson has made a statement about any peace that might come out.  He is urging other countries not to push the Ukrainians to accept a sub-par deal.   
    •  
    • There has been a delivery of German weapons.  There have been criticisms that Germany has been very slow in supplying weapons.  
    •  
    • Drones. 
    • A drone flew inside Russia a significant distance from the front lines.  Crashed into an oil refinery.  Significant damage.  It could be a drone captured from Russia and returned to it.  The Russian air defense may have mistaken the drone for one of theirs.  Could be a false flag, unlikely.
    • A smaller drone crashed in northeastern Turkey.  This type of drone can be up in the air for hours.  The drones can go wrong. 
    •  
    • Mariupol.  What life is like in Mariupol, occupied by Russians.  Article in the Daily Telegraph.  Warehouses that used to house fruits and vegetables now  house corpses.  They are surrounded by flies.  Hunger is an increasing problem. 
    •  
    • People are concerned that the West will forget about them.  They are living with the possibility of death every day.  A man who worked as a hospital clown before the war is working to get people out and cheer them up.  There is a lack of supplies and medical supplies.  “Everyone’s doing their best.”  People are dying because of a lack of trained medics.
    • Marlene Dietrich: “I miss what people are like when they are trying to be brave.”
    • Elderly people have nowhere else to go.  Disabled people have special problems.  One woman, 92, said: “I just want to die.”
    • Separatists are being sent into the war by the Russians without equipment, body amour.  Ukrainians were having to fire on these men and then Russians knew where they were.  What a cynical tactic.
    •  
    • What is the state of information in Poland (where one of the reporters is after leaving Ukraine)? 
    • The Poles are worried about the proximity of the military action.  When you cross the border, you are immediately away from the intense environment of Ukraine.  It’s very hard to imagine what it’s like on the ground in Ukraine once you leave.
    •  
    • Ukraine has been so good about putting out information during the war.  When Macron and Scholtz came, Ukrainians appreciated the attention.  They want to stay in the headlines, to let people know that they are in this for the long run.  There was concern that there would be pressure on Zelensky about a peace deal.  The public mood is very much against that.
    • They don’t think Putin would stop there no matter what you give him.
    • There were jokes about Johnson being jealous about Macron kissing Zelensky on the cheek.
    •  
    • Yesterday there was a report that Ukraine had detected spies, one a business leader and one a senior government official.  In Kyiv, they were imparting information to the Russians.  They were detained.  At the start of the war, there were thought to be sleeper agents looking for Zelensky.  There is still this hunt on for these people who are providing information to Russia.  They are using online gaming to get information to Russia.  There is a big effort by the Russians to keep these people going.
    •  
    •  Final thoughts: Snake Island effort by Ukraine.  There is an uptick on violence.  That island is critical. 
    • The message on the ground is please don’t forget about us.

    On Twitter cjjohns1951

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: “Who’s next?” President of Kazakhstan humiliates Putin

    MONDAY 20 JUNE 2022

    @cjjohns1951

    UKRAINE: THE LATEST Podcast, 6/20/22

    “Nobody is going to break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”

    • Day 117.
    • There has been an attack on Snake Island this morning.  This indicates that there was a Ukrainian counter-attack. 
    • There was an assassination attempt on a prison boss by the Ukrainians in the Donbas.
    • There is an attempt to destroy Snake Island as a military base used by the Russians.  Since the losing of the island it has been a problem for the Ukrainians.
    • Zelensky is saying that he expects the Russians to up the ante in the east.  This is in part because the EU is voting whether to accept Ukraine as a candidate for admission.
    • Chief of NATO said that we are in for years more of conflict in Ukraine.
    • There are discussions of how to free the grain. 
    • There is still a discussion of using naval vessels to escort the grain out.  Rails can be adapted to facilitate the export of grain.  (Note there is a difference in the rail gauges between Ukraine and the rest of Europe.)
    • Germany has decided to start using coal again to decrease the amount of Russian oil they are using.  This will take time.  Shifts in energy policy take a great deal of time.
    •  
    • Kazakhstan
    • Unrest shook Kazakhstan in January.  This involved Putin sending paratroopers to quash this unrest.  They were later used to try to take Kyiv. 
    • Putin’s speech at the economic forum, leader of Kazakhstan was on the platform with him.
    • Became independent in 1991.  They have built up their own national identity.  They have walked a tightrope between Russian, China and the US.
    • In northern Kazakhstan, the cities are largely populated by Russians.
    • There is a lot of economic sharing with Russia.  Russia has a lot of levers over Kazakhstan.
    • The Russians expected full backing from the Central Asian countries.  They have proved more independent than Putin anticipated.  Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have said that they back the territorial integrity of Ukraine. 
    • Kazakhstan has said that it does not regard the Donbas region as independent states.  This is a policy they have had for a long time.  They don’t want separatist groups in their own territories.
    • The Central Asian states do not want to drift into the Belarus situation, as sub-states to the Russians.  They back the Kremlin a bit and the West a bit.
    • When Putin gave this speech at the economic forum, bombastic talk about Russia as top of a new world order.  Telling the EU that the sanctions would cost them more than Russia.  Video message from Egyptian president and the Chinese president. 
    • During a question and answer session afterward, the Kazak president told Putin to his face that he did not support the Kremlin position on the independence of the Donbas region.  The reporter said that he had never heard anyone challenge or contradict Putin live onstage.
    • There was a stunned murmur in the audience.  Tokayev owes Putin.  Putin sat there blankly.  The moderator stepped in.  twenty minutes later, Putin reminded Tokayev who was boss.  He said, the Soviet Union is historic Russia.  He followed by saying that Russia could have had a brotherly relation with Ukraine, but Ukraine went their own way.  Kremlin code for we are happy to be friends but you have to do what we tell you. 
    • People in Kazakhstan are worried about an invasion.  It’s a “where next” guessing game. 
    • In Uralsk, northwest Kazakhstan, people were even more concerned about Putin and an invasion.   A lot of the Russians are listening to the Russian propaganda.  Ethnic Russians are becoming increasingly pro-Russians.  The ethnic Kazaks are more wary.  While publicly blasé about the possibility, privately they are more worried.
    • The Kazak army would be no match even for a weakened Russian army.
    • How dependent are the Central Asian states on Russia?  Kazakhstan is based on oil and gas, minerals, found in North and east Kazakhstan.  There is a pipeline which pumps oil from West Kazakhstan into Russia.  This is an important pipeline.  It was considered an international success. 
    • Kremlin ordered the pipeline closed down in April, March.  They said there was storm damage.  They shut it down for a month.  Many think this was a warning to Kazakhstan.
    • It’s threatening not to know what Russia intends or is potentially threatening.  You get used to playing the game.  Statements that could mean anything, are translated in several ways.  It’s exhausting.  (Note: This is to the Kremlin’s advantage.)
    • The defiance of Kazakhstan as it compares to other states?  Each state has their own relationship with the Kremlin.  There are major Russian military bases in some of them.  In Kyrgyzstan, there is a leader who is very pro-Kremlin (he came to power in a coup).   
    • Georgia was invaded by Russia.  The governing party is backed by a wealthy oligarch who earned his money in Russia and is pro-Russian.  Ukraine has accused Georgia of helping Russia evade sanctions.   
    •  Putin has ben reinvigorated by successes in Donbas.  His main project seems to be reinstatement o the USSR and the Peter the Great land grab.  The invasion of Ukraine is a very old-school approach.  He can also exert huge influence and pretty much regard the former Soviet states as his by pushing the right buttons.  There is no need to risk another invasion.  He can control the countries anyway.
    • But any invasion would be over very quicky in a country like Kazakhstan.
    • Northern Kazakhstan has many ethnic Russians and that could be used as a pretext for any invasion.  Putin likes to use the pretext of defending ethnic Russians by military action.  May be 3.5 million ethnic Russians.  A lot of them live in North Kazakhstan.
    • The Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, Russian ally, issued a video update where he openly threatened Kazakhstan.  This came quickly (two days) after the statement at the Economic forum. 
    • Analyst are saying that Tokayev humiliated Putin live on TV.
    • Lavrov, last month, made a statement that Kazakhstan hosts US bio-labs and may be producing bio-weapons.  This has also been said about Ukraine and Georgia (both of whom they have invaded).
    • Other Kremlin spokespeople have been critical on Kazakhstan.  There has been some angry commentary on Russian media.
    • How do most people get their information? In North Kazakhstan they are watching Russian TV.  They are seeing how Bacha was a fake plot.  Donbas residents are being marginalized.  Propaganda. 
    • Kazakhstan is a neutral country.  A Russian businessman was telling a reporter that Putin was obviously right.  This was an educated man.  Reporters can’t get into Russia to talk to people.  (This guy was in Kazakhstan to buy a new car.) 
    •  
    • Comin Stories:
    • Snake Island attacks, attempts to neutralize it as a Russian military base of operations.
    • Deportations of Ukrainians.  Forcibly deported to Russia since the start of the invasion, many children.  These are staggering numbers.  Why?  You have control of the minds of the next generation in Donbas?  There are reports that they are being sent to camps where they cannot communicate or escape.  Difficulty in reporting on this.  There are some verified statistics from Russia itself.
    • Uralsk.  Becoming a refuge for those fleeing Russia.

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: GALEOTTI BANNED FROM RUSSIA

    SATURDAY 18 JUNE 2022

    Global News Podcast, Podcast

    • Putin gave a speech yesterday.  St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
    • Sanctions against Russia will hurt the West more than Russia.
    • China’s Xi Jinping gave a telecast speech.
    • There was another talk of expansionism against Ukraine.  Only three regions of Ukraine actually belong to Ukraine, the rest were given to Ukraine by Russia.
    • It was a defiant speech by Putin. 
    • Official candidate status recommended by an executive committee of the EU.
    • Reforms including tackling corruption is on the table before full membership. 
    • Moldova has also been recommended for membership.
    • In Georgia, waiting for EU membership, there are concerns about media independence and other factors.  Georgia is afraid that Ukraine will be leapfrogged before them.
    •  
    • Assange is now being threatened with extradition to the U.S. 
    • Previously there had been concerns that Assange would commit suicide were he extradited.  The U.S. has given assurances that he would be “taken care of.”
    • He will be tried on espionage charges in the U.S.  Supporters of Assange are concerned that once in the U.S., there might be new charges.  Assange will be sent to a super max prison.

    IN MOSCOW’S SHADOWS, Podcast #70, 6/18/22

    • This podcast is produced by Mark Galeotti, Russian specialist.  He has been banned now, since June, from Russia.
    • He was banned for issuing biased information about the situation in Ukraine and Russia and contributing to “Russophobia.”
    • Putin’s speech at a conference where one of the participants is the Taliban.
    • Putin was, in part, trying to show that he is in good health.
    • Putin argued that the economic sanctions never had any chance of success.  This implies that the impact of the sanctions is now able to be assessed.  Galeotti says it will be months.
    • Is Putin trying to reassure his oligarchs?  Is this his view?  Are his underlings trying to sugar coat the assessment of the effects of the sanctions?
    • “Economic war takes time” said Galeotti.
    • Putin suggested he was fine with Ukraine joining the EU.  But, he thinks that this is a mistake because Ukraine would become a semi-colony of the West.
    • There is a spat between Putin and the head of Kazakhstan.  Was this a stage managed coup against the leader of Kazakhstan.  Tokayev.
    • Lavrov, Galeotti regards with a mixture of “pity and contempt.” 
    • Lavrov was recently coming out with the most extreme rhetoric.  He claimed that Russia didn’t invade Ukraine.  He claimed they “declared an operation.”  Lavrov in “incapable of being shamed.”
    • “Russia is what it is and we are not ashamed of showing who we are.”  Lavrov.  This the current mood within the Kremlin.  We are tired of apologizing. We are tired of being made to feel we are the naughty children.  This sounds very prideful.  It is the “voice of desperation.”  You have not won the argument, so you say you don’t care about the argument.
    • In Russia there is 1) the party of peace (economic interests suffering from sanctions even though they are close to Putin), 2) the party of war (Federal Security Service, speaker of the Duma, head of the United Russia party, Medvedev who is trying to out hawk the rest), 3) the party of silence (the technocrats).  The three divisions in Russia. 
    • Where is the military in this scheme?  Where is Shoigu? 
    • Shoigu has been silent recently.  We do not know why.  Some say that he is in disgrace, but we don’t know.  Galeotti thinks that Shoigu is keeping his head down.  Putin is the final arbiter. 
    • So much of Russia’s strategy is bluff.  We are dangerous and unpredictable, don’t challenge us.  In invading Ukraine, he “called his own bluff.”
    •  

  • Private Flights out of Russia before and after sanctions

    www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/17/world/europe/russia-private-jets.html

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: STRUGGLE IN THE DONBAS

    UKRAINE UPDATE, 6/16/22

    Air raid sirens went off while the four European leaders were in Kyiv today.  This was their first trip to Ukraine since the war began.  Ukraine says that it is outmatched by 10/1 by the Russian armaments.

    Ukraine, the Latest Podcast by The Telegraph

    • France, Germany, Italy and Romania, the leaders from these countries were in Kyiv today.
    • The opposition leader in Germany has been to Ukraine before Scholtz. 
    • Zelensky has called out European leaders for weapons supply lag.  France and Germany were laggers in accepting the fact that the Russians were going to invade.  They have been playing catch up since then.
    • Germany has done an about term and promised weapons, but it has sent mostly light weapons. 
    • Macron has faced criticism over his relationship with Putin.  He has made comments about not humiliating Russia. 
    • There are fears that they are in Ukraine to try to talk Zelensky into making concessions to calm things down so that things can get “back to normal.”  Zelensky is not interested.
    • Today, they have been making all the right noises, but they are noises. 
    • Macron passed a piece of graffiti that said: Make Europe, not War.  Macron made some kind of statement of agreement. 
    • The issue of membership should be important.
    • Germany has been very hesitant about giving weapons.  They are now saying that they will supply heavy weapons.
    • This is watched closely in Moscow. 
    • Macron is saying the right things, but if they are not backed up by action and continue to be backed up by picking up the phone and calling Putin, it’ useless.
    • Romanian prime minister is there.  Talk about getting the grain out of Ukraine to the world and Romania may have a role to play.  Turkey has said it’s going to host a four way meeting.  Will be interesting to see if there are any comments from Romane about the blockade in the Black Sea today. 
    •  
    • Lloyd Austin (US) has tried to bring in allies to send weapons. 
    • U.S. servicemen captured in Ukraine. 
    •  
    • Navalny is in a prison called Russia’s “scariest prison.”
    • They were expecting him to be moved after another sentence.  This added another decade to his sentence. 
    • Lawyers appeared on Tuesday at his regular jail.  He was no longer there.
    • 24-hours later, his lawyer was able to see him at the different, high security prison. 
    • The move makes communication with his family and the outside world is more difficult.
    • There is cause for alarm.
    • Still heavy fighting going on in Sieverodonetsk. They think most of the fighters have gotten out. 
    • The Russian fighting is increasingly “ad hoc.”  Units are smaller and increasingly traveling on foot.  The vehicles are just not there. 
    • Ukrainian counter attacks in Kherson.  These have been unnoticed because of the focus on the Donbas.
    • There are important dams there.  If Russians lose these dams, it could cause a problem because they supply water to Crimea.
    •  
    • Mercenaries used by the Russians.
    • Men were called up as soon as the invasion started in Donbas, by the Russians.  There have been protests from the wives of some of those conscripts.  They say they have no idea what is happening with their men.
    • They say their men are poorly trained and supplied.
    • There is a new report of an intercepted conversation, two intelligence officers communicating about using prisoners of war as cannon fodder. 
    • Officers were describing ways to use Ukrainian prisoners of war, referring to them by a slur word.  They were talking about using them to demine fields, “in a natural way.” 
    • There were also discussions about using them as free labor.
    • It was spoken of as a completely natural thing to do.
    •  
    • Recently a report from Dnipro, an officer talked about separatists in Luhansk that were badly supplied.  They didn’t have helmets.  The Russians would throw in a group of separatist conscripts to their own deaths, helping the Russians know where the Ukrainian forces were.
    • Latest report from separatist authorities, admitting, high casualties.  In one report they were admitting losing half of their military members.
    •  
    • If Putin was deposed is there any hope of a non-authoritarian rule?
    • It would be a long, difficult process even if Putin was no longer there.
    •  
    • There was previous euphoria about Russians getting bogged down.  But it could be one of the most dangerous phases of the war.  Ukraine is outgunned.  Russia has time on its side. 
    • Ukrainian ammunition is running out.
    • The war is about territory, conquest.  The “Peter the Great” speech is important.  Interesting to see the language of NATO and the EU in response to this speech. 

    WAR ON THE ROCKS, podcast 6/13/22

    • Earlier on the Russians had gotten very far into the city.  Now, it is unclear who controls the city.
    • The Russian offensive overall is that they have taken ground slowly.
    • They are threatening lines of communication to Sieverodonetsk.
    • The set us is for a battle for Kramatorsk. 
    • Both sides are reaching a state of exhaustion.  Beyond the Donbas the counteroffensive of the Ukrainians have not gotten very far. 
    • The Russian offensive has gone slower and slower but it is still going on. 
    • Trying to do mini-envelopments of Ukrainian troops.
    • Russians have to keep shifting forces around depending on where they think they are going to be successful.
    • This is a challenge for Ukraine.  They are outmatched.  More air power is being used by the Russians. 
    • In the beginning, the Ukrainians were releasing a lot of information negative for the Russians on open-source internet.  This led to a kind of euphoria that Ukraine was winning.  Now, even the Ukrainians are admitting that they are outmanned and out gunned and need more.
    • The Russians weren’t releasing any information and so it looked like Ukraine was winning. 
    • The first was a campaign for regime change in Kyiv.  Now, it’s a campaign for territorial control.
    • They are now fighting the way we thought they were going to fight in the beginning, the Russians.
    • Ukrainian casualties are higher now.  The running out of ammunition is a problem for the Ukrainians.
    • Ukraine has lost some of its best troops.
    • Minor gains are possible, but they can’t adequately take advantage of that (both sides.)
    • Putin has decided against a mobilization. Has been trying to buy people back into the military.  It’s a “shadow mobilization.”  Creating reserve battalions.  Offering increasing money to conscripts.  They are keen not to use conscripts. 
    • Russians think that they will grind down the Ukrainians and that the West will get disgusted and pull out.
    • With the US it takes time to get the material.  Maintenance is also a question for this new equipment.  There are issues with technical know-how.    There was gross optimism about the ability of the Ukrainians to just pick up how to use this new equipment.
    • This is one of the most dangerous periods of the war for Ukraine.  There is a likely big operational pause.

    THE POWER VERTICAL PODCAST, May 26, 2022

    NEW YORK TIMES

    • Russia cut flows to Europe’s most important natural gas pipeline for the second day in a row. 
    • The Russians are claiming that repairs were to blame. 
    •  

  • Germany’s mistake.

    podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/explaining-ukraine/id1333090403

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: NAVALNY

    NYT Headline


    “Western officials questioned Ukraine’s ability to keep resisting the Russian onslaught.”

    Navalny has been transferred to a higher security prison from the camp where he was staying.  This caused alarm since early Tuesday reporting was that Navalny’s lawyer showed up at a court hearing and Russian officials denied having a prisoner by the name of Navalny.

    At 8 PM on Tuesday, Navalny’s team had not received confirmation of his transfer to the other prison.  Navalny was convicted by Moscow’s Lefortovo court over allegations that he stole from his Anti-Corruption foundation.

    Navalny has reportedly texted his team that a “prison within a prison” awaited him at the higher security prison.

    His lawyers were not informed of the transfer.  They showed up at the penal colony where he had been held and were told that he was not there.

    The Washington Post reported that this new prison was “known for the systematic abuse of inmates.”  The prison is in Melekhovo, some 150 miles east of Moscow.

    When the lawyers arrived at the penal colony they were told “thre is no such convict there” and they were turned away.

    Navalyn’s spokesperson said: “As long as we don’t know where Alexei is, he remains one-on-one with the system that has already tried to kill him.”

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: “Why won’t they just help us?”

     TUESDAY 14 JUNE 2022

    UKRAINE WORLD PODCAST: RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM, interview with Vera Tolz, Professor of Russian studies at University of Manchester

    • The place of Ukraine is different in the Russian imperial imagination.
    • Ethnic Russians started to compose a minority of the empire.
    • Draconian decrees against the Ukrainian language, for example. 
    • The modern Russian nation started to emerge in 1880 in response to the Ukrainian nationhood.
    • Russians fear that without incorporating Ukraine and Belarus, they will cease to be an imperial force.
    • Putin’s government has developed this narrative that the Ukrainian nation is an artificial construct.  But, any nation is a construct.  It’s more plausible that the idea of the Russian nation in modern terms is a reactive one, to the challenge of the Ukrainian nationalism.
    • Putin is making a war against the Leninist idea of a confederation of separate nations. 
    • Some empires collapsed in the fact of the first WW.
    • Lenin had a clear understanding of national movements that had been emerging and challenging empires.  The Soviet Union was an attempt to address this idea of national challenge.
    • That attempt allowed a quasi-imperial structure to last for another 70 plus years.
    • The idea that you can undo the decades of Soviet legacy of recognizing Ukrainians as separate nations and go back to some idea of a pre-revolutionary ideal, is a fantasy.
    • This can only occur in a very personalized dictatorship.
    • The centralized mass education system during the 30s emphasized the crudest narratives of Russian empire.  From Stalin onwards this was the basis of mass education.
    • Putin’s propaganda tries to cancel the Soviet Union organization.
    • There is an impulse to use history selectively according to the demands of today.
    • There was a systematic denial of imperialism when Russia annexed Crimea.  Now, with Ukraine, a manifestation of imperialism, the imperialism is embraced by the propaganda.

    UKRAINE THE LATEST podcast, The Telegraph

    • “Nobody’s gonna break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”
    • Day 111 in the war against Ukraine.
    • Routes to evacuate Sieverodonetsk have been cut off in the effort to cut off the Donbas region.  70% of the city is under Russian control.
    • This may well turn out to be another Mariupol situation. 
    • Russians have warned the military in Sieverodonetsk that they must surrender or die. 
    • Macron has been accused of betraying Ukraine.
    • A large amount of money has been made by the Russians on gas from France.  The EU has accounted around 60% of the exports of the Russians.
    • France, Belgium and the Netherlands have snapped up Russian oil and gas at cut rates. 
    • France is being particularly criticized.  A new shipment worth 900 million.
    • We will see whether the commitments about Russian energy supplies will be honored.
    • Amnesty International has reported war crimes in Kharkiv.
    • The Russians are using cluster munitions in Kharkiv.  These are indiscriminate in their effect.

    In this podcast, there is an interview with a young Ukrainian woman now living in England.  She had to convince to leave southern Ukraine.  While she was trying to talk with them about leaving her father told her he was responsible for the twenty families of his employees.  She promised to help support them.  You could hear the fear and the guilt and the shame in her voice as she said she found that she could hardly provide them anything.  Why won’t they just help us, she kept asking, her voice quavering.  Why won’t they just help us.  It is heartbreaking and shameful that the West is not doing more. 

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: Putin as Peter the Great, It’s time to take sides

    SUNDAY 12 JUNE 2022

    Twitter: @cjjohns1951

    Podcasts about Ukraine: “Ukraine: The Latest” The Telegraph; “Ukraine World”; The Kyiv Independent; Euromaidan Press

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • Fighting still intense in Sievierodonetsk. 
    • Ukrainian partisans are making controlling the territory taken by the Russians difficult.  The Russian-controlled airbase in Kherson has been blown up a dozen times.
    • In Izyum, eight soldiers died after being given spiked pies by an elderly lady. (See Economist for article).

    Putin’s Speech

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/06/10/Putin-Peter-Great-comparison/2471654871043/

    • Putin compared himself to Peter the Great, “the country’s first emperor who is credited with making Russia an European power, capturing land through a series of long, successful wars.”
    • In February, Putin had said that invasion was necessary to “denazify” the Ukraine.  He also said that expansion of NATO was a threat to Russian security
    • Zelensky advisor noted that this speech by Putin amounted to a confession that his real goal was to wipe Ukraine out of existence.
    • Advisor: “We should not talk about Russia saving face, but about its immediate de-imperialization.”

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/09/putin-compares-his-actions-to-peter-the-greats-conquests-a77960

    • When Peter the Great founded St. Petersburg, said Putin, and declared it the Russian capital “none of the countries in Europe recognized this territory as belonging to Russia.”
    • Moscow is playing down Peter’s affinity for Europe and focusing instead on his role in expanding Russian territory.
    •  

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68606

    • Putin talks about the place where he is speaking and lectures the students that “…from Soviet times fell into a state of disrepair and was used for a cheap marketplace, but…as the situation in the country improved, so did VDNKh.
    • “…either a country is sovereign, or it is a colony…”
    • “…a colony has no historical prospects, no chance for survival…”
    • “…there were eras in the history of our country when we had to retreat, but only in order to mobilise and move forward…”
    • “without consolidation, things will fall apart.” (2)
    • After noting that he had visited the exhibition dedicated to the 350 anniversary of Peter the Great, he said: “Almost nothing has changed.”
    • In the “great Northern War” Peter the Great was not “taking something away” “he was returning.” “He was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing.”
    • “…it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well.”
    • “They made these mistakes themselves…trying to turn this around on Russia, claiming that Russia is to blame for everything.  We have nothing to do with it.  They imposed restrictions…And then they started imposing sanctions and aggravated the situation in these and other areas even more.”
    • “…we funded their work with our cheap energy resources.”

  • UKRAINE: Putin rips off the mask.

    FRIDAY 10 JUNE 2022

    THE TELEGRAPH Podcast, Ukraine the Latest

    •  
    • The two British men captured in Ukraine several weeks ago, have been sentenced to death for fighting in the war and trying to take power.  There has been talk of a prisoner swap.  A pro-Russian politician in Ukraine may be swapped for the two British men. 
    • Both British men have been accused as being mercenaries.  Is this a threat to all foreign fighters?  Is this an attempt to signal outsiders that if they come to Ukraine to help, they will be put to death if captured?
    • Russia is happy to ignore conventions in every area. 
    • One of the captured men has joint Ukrainian citizenship.  But, nevertheless, if they are combatants, they are prisoners of war and by international law receive the protections of the Geneva Conventions.
    • The Wagner Group fights for Russia and they are a mercenary group.  Are they prepared to be tried and given the death sentence?  (Note: The Wagner group is a mercenary group used by the Russian government to fight in areas where they don’t want to take the responsibility.  They have a reputation of being especially vicious and violent.  It was thought in the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine that they were put in Ukraine primarily for their scare potential.)
    • The sentencing of the two British men to death is thought to be a power play to be used for propaganda purposes.  They will most likely be handed over.
    • Ukrainians have tried combatants for war crimes, but not for being combatants or mercenaries.  (Note: Russian propaganda attempt to equate the two actions.)
    •  
    • There is likely to be an outbreak of cholera in Mariupol.  Medical services are near collapse.  They are struggling to provide basic services. 
    • It will be extremely difficult to hold territories taken by the Russians with such suffering present in these areas.  (Note: People will not forget that after taking over Mariupol promising to take care of basic services, the Russians allowed a cholera outbreak.)
    •  
    • Ammunition is running short for the Ukrainians.  The expected Western munitions are of a different caliber.  The Ukrainians are having to change their systems to adapt to the new munitions.  (See article in the Guardian 6/10/22).
    •   
    • Desertion in the Ukrainian forces.  There is a feeling that Western munitions are not coming in quickly enough and this has led to a discouragement.  There is bothh a material effect and an effect on morale of the promised weapons not being delivered. 
    • There is a feeling among Ukrainians that the West is tiring of the situation.
    • The West’s commitment to this war is vital to morale.  There is a feeling that France and Germany are wanting to make concessions and not send the weapons they had promised.
    •     
    • Putin’s speech on 9 June, compared himself to Peter the Great.
    • Putin just threw away any pretense that this war was about anything but territorial expansion.
    • Speaking in Moscow, Putin said that Peter the Great was “reclaiming” territory.  He presumably thinks that he is doing the same.
    • The mask is cast aside with a flourish of Peter the Great.
    • It’s not about de-nazification, it’s not about NATO expansion, it’s about one man’s ego and expansionism.
    • It’s “pick a side time.”  There can be no question now that Putin is responding to any of the imagined threats he previously named.
    • This blatant announcement of Putin’s intentions is a strategic mistake.  Macron and others will have to take a side and can no longer claim that Putin has a rationale for the invasion. 
    • Putin only sees a few countries as relevant – United States, Russia, and China.  Others are irrelevant. 
    • Putin was proud of what he was saying. There was no question of it being a mistake or a gaff.  Reporters think they were honest words.  There’s nowhere to hide for people who are seeking to hide from Putin’s intentions. 
    • This important speech is not adequately being covered. 
    • They must beef up NATO forces on the eastern front.
    • “Hugely significant speech.”
    • There is an Article in Telegraph about Putin’s speech. 
    • One of the debates has been whether Putin is a Czarist or wanting to reunite the Soviet Union.  It’s obvious now, that it is the former.

  • Ukraine. Propagandizing the schools Russia or the US?

    www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/us/politics/russia-biden-sanctions.html

  • UKRAINE: FULL TEXT OF PUTIN’S SPEECH

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/read-vladimir-putin-s-victory-day-speech-in-full