Law, Power, and Justice

Join me in trying to make sense of a complicated world.

Recent Posts

  • Private Flights out of Russia before and after sanctions

    www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/17/world/europe/russia-private-jets.html

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: STRUGGLE IN THE DONBAS

    UKRAINE UPDATE, 6/16/22

    Air raid sirens went off while the four European leaders were in Kyiv today.  This was their first trip to Ukraine since the war began.  Ukraine says that it is outmatched by 10/1 by the Russian armaments.

    Ukraine, the Latest Podcast by The Telegraph

    • France, Germany, Italy and Romania, the leaders from these countries were in Kyiv today.
    • The opposition leader in Germany has been to Ukraine before Scholtz. 
    • Zelensky has called out European leaders for weapons supply lag.  France and Germany were laggers in accepting the fact that the Russians were going to invade.  They have been playing catch up since then.
    • Germany has done an about term and promised weapons, but it has sent mostly light weapons. 
    • Macron has faced criticism over his relationship with Putin.  He has made comments about not humiliating Russia. 
    • There are fears that they are in Ukraine to try to talk Zelensky into making concessions to calm things down so that things can get “back to normal.”  Zelensky is not interested.
    • Today, they have been making all the right noises, but they are noises. 
    • Macron passed a piece of graffiti that said: Make Europe, not War.  Macron made some kind of statement of agreement. 
    • The issue of membership should be important.
    • Germany has been very hesitant about giving weapons.  They are now saying that they will supply heavy weapons.
    • This is watched closely in Moscow. 
    • Macron is saying the right things, but if they are not backed up by action and continue to be backed up by picking up the phone and calling Putin, it’ useless.
    • Romanian prime minister is there.  Talk about getting the grain out of Ukraine to the world and Romania may have a role to play.  Turkey has said it’s going to host a four way meeting.  Will be interesting to see if there are any comments from Romane about the blockade in the Black Sea today. 
    •  
    • Lloyd Austin (US) has tried to bring in allies to send weapons. 
    • U.S. servicemen captured in Ukraine. 
    •  
    • Navalny is in a prison called Russia’s “scariest prison.”
    • They were expecting him to be moved after another sentence.  This added another decade to his sentence. 
    • Lawyers appeared on Tuesday at his regular jail.  He was no longer there.
    • 24-hours later, his lawyer was able to see him at the different, high security prison. 
    • The move makes communication with his family and the outside world is more difficult.
    • There is cause for alarm.
    • Still heavy fighting going on in Sieverodonetsk. They think most of the fighters have gotten out. 
    • The Russian fighting is increasingly “ad hoc.”  Units are smaller and increasingly traveling on foot.  The vehicles are just not there. 
    • Ukrainian counter attacks in Kherson.  These have been unnoticed because of the focus on the Donbas.
    • There are important dams there.  If Russians lose these dams, it could cause a problem because they supply water to Crimea.
    •  
    • Mercenaries used by the Russians.
    • Men were called up as soon as the invasion started in Donbas, by the Russians.  There have been protests from the wives of some of those conscripts.  They say they have no idea what is happening with their men.
    • They say their men are poorly trained and supplied.
    • There is a new report of an intercepted conversation, two intelligence officers communicating about using prisoners of war as cannon fodder. 
    • Officers were describing ways to use Ukrainian prisoners of war, referring to them by a slur word.  They were talking about using them to demine fields, “in a natural way.” 
    • There were also discussions about using them as free labor.
    • It was spoken of as a completely natural thing to do.
    •  
    • Recently a report from Dnipro, an officer talked about separatists in Luhansk that were badly supplied.  They didn’t have helmets.  The Russians would throw in a group of separatist conscripts to their own deaths, helping the Russians know where the Ukrainian forces were.
    • Latest report from separatist authorities, admitting, high casualties.  In one report they were admitting losing half of their military members.
    •  
    • If Putin was deposed is there any hope of a non-authoritarian rule?
    • It would be a long, difficult process even if Putin was no longer there.
    •  
    • There was previous euphoria about Russians getting bogged down.  But it could be one of the most dangerous phases of the war.  Ukraine is outgunned.  Russia has time on its side. 
    • Ukrainian ammunition is running out.
    • The war is about territory, conquest.  The “Peter the Great” speech is important.  Interesting to see the language of NATO and the EU in response to this speech. 

    WAR ON THE ROCKS, podcast 6/13/22

    • Earlier on the Russians had gotten very far into the city.  Now, it is unclear who controls the city.
    • The Russian offensive overall is that they have taken ground slowly.
    • They are threatening lines of communication to Sieverodonetsk.
    • The set us is for a battle for Kramatorsk. 
    • Both sides are reaching a state of exhaustion.  Beyond the Donbas the counteroffensive of the Ukrainians have not gotten very far. 
    • The Russian offensive has gone slower and slower but it is still going on. 
    • Trying to do mini-envelopments of Ukrainian troops.
    • Russians have to keep shifting forces around depending on where they think they are going to be successful.
    • This is a challenge for Ukraine.  They are outmatched.  More air power is being used by the Russians. 
    • In the beginning, the Ukrainians were releasing a lot of information negative for the Russians on open-source internet.  This led to a kind of euphoria that Ukraine was winning.  Now, even the Ukrainians are admitting that they are outmanned and out gunned and need more.
    • The Russians weren’t releasing any information and so it looked like Ukraine was winning. 
    • The first was a campaign for regime change in Kyiv.  Now, it’s a campaign for territorial control.
    • They are now fighting the way we thought they were going to fight in the beginning, the Russians.
    • Ukrainian casualties are higher now.  The running out of ammunition is a problem for the Ukrainians.
    • Ukraine has lost some of its best troops.
    • Minor gains are possible, but they can’t adequately take advantage of that (both sides.)
    • Putin has decided against a mobilization. Has been trying to buy people back into the military.  It’s a “shadow mobilization.”  Creating reserve battalions.  Offering increasing money to conscripts.  They are keen not to use conscripts. 
    • Russians think that they will grind down the Ukrainians and that the West will get disgusted and pull out.
    • With the US it takes time to get the material.  Maintenance is also a question for this new equipment.  There are issues with technical know-how.    There was gross optimism about the ability of the Ukrainians to just pick up how to use this new equipment.
    • This is one of the most dangerous periods of the war for Ukraine.  There is a likely big operational pause.

    THE POWER VERTICAL PODCAST, May 26, 2022

    NEW YORK TIMES

    • Russia cut flows to Europe’s most important natural gas pipeline for the second day in a row. 
    • The Russians are claiming that repairs were to blame. 
    •  

  • Germany’s mistake.

    podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/explaining-ukraine/id1333090403

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: NAVALNY

    NYT Headline


    “Western officials questioned Ukraine’s ability to keep resisting the Russian onslaught.”

    Navalny has been transferred to a higher security prison from the camp where he was staying.  This caused alarm since early Tuesday reporting was that Navalny’s lawyer showed up at a court hearing and Russian officials denied having a prisoner by the name of Navalny.

    At 8 PM on Tuesday, Navalny’s team had not received confirmation of his transfer to the other prison.  Navalny was convicted by Moscow’s Lefortovo court over allegations that he stole from his Anti-Corruption foundation.

    Navalny has reportedly texted his team that a “prison within a prison” awaited him at the higher security prison.

    His lawyers were not informed of the transfer.  They showed up at the penal colony where he had been held and were told that he was not there.

    The Washington Post reported that this new prison was “known for the systematic abuse of inmates.”  The prison is in Melekhovo, some 150 miles east of Moscow.

    When the lawyers arrived at the penal colony they were told “thre is no such convict there” and they were turned away.

    Navalyn’s spokesperson said: “As long as we don’t know where Alexei is, he remains one-on-one with the system that has already tried to kill him.”

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: “Why won’t they just help us?”

     TUESDAY 14 JUNE 2022

    UKRAINE WORLD PODCAST: RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM, interview with Vera Tolz, Professor of Russian studies at University of Manchester

    • The place of Ukraine is different in the Russian imperial imagination.
    • Ethnic Russians started to compose a minority of the empire.
    • Draconian decrees against the Ukrainian language, for example. 
    • The modern Russian nation started to emerge in 1880 in response to the Ukrainian nationhood.
    • Russians fear that without incorporating Ukraine and Belarus, they will cease to be an imperial force.
    • Putin’s government has developed this narrative that the Ukrainian nation is an artificial construct.  But, any nation is a construct.  It’s more plausible that the idea of the Russian nation in modern terms is a reactive one, to the challenge of the Ukrainian nationalism.
    • Putin is making a war against the Leninist idea of a confederation of separate nations. 
    • Some empires collapsed in the fact of the first WW.
    • Lenin had a clear understanding of national movements that had been emerging and challenging empires.  The Soviet Union was an attempt to address this idea of national challenge.
    • That attempt allowed a quasi-imperial structure to last for another 70 plus years.
    • The idea that you can undo the decades of Soviet legacy of recognizing Ukrainians as separate nations and go back to some idea of a pre-revolutionary ideal, is a fantasy.
    • This can only occur in a very personalized dictatorship.
    • The centralized mass education system during the 30s emphasized the crudest narratives of Russian empire.  From Stalin onwards this was the basis of mass education.
    • Putin’s propaganda tries to cancel the Soviet Union organization.
    • There is an impulse to use history selectively according to the demands of today.
    • There was a systematic denial of imperialism when Russia annexed Crimea.  Now, with Ukraine, a manifestation of imperialism, the imperialism is embraced by the propaganda.

    UKRAINE THE LATEST podcast, The Telegraph

    • “Nobody’s gonna break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”
    • Day 111 in the war against Ukraine.
    • Routes to evacuate Sieverodonetsk have been cut off in the effort to cut off the Donbas region.  70% of the city is under Russian control.
    • This may well turn out to be another Mariupol situation. 
    • Russians have warned the military in Sieverodonetsk that they must surrender or die. 
    • Macron has been accused of betraying Ukraine.
    • A large amount of money has been made by the Russians on gas from France.  The EU has accounted around 60% of the exports of the Russians.
    • France, Belgium and the Netherlands have snapped up Russian oil and gas at cut rates. 
    • France is being particularly criticized.  A new shipment worth 900 million.
    • We will see whether the commitments about Russian energy supplies will be honored.
    • Amnesty International has reported war crimes in Kharkiv.
    • The Russians are using cluster munitions in Kharkiv.  These are indiscriminate in their effect.

    In this podcast, there is an interview with a young Ukrainian woman now living in England.  She had to convince to leave southern Ukraine.  While she was trying to talk with them about leaving her father told her he was responsible for the twenty families of his employees.  She promised to help support them.  You could hear the fear and the guilt and the shame in her voice as she said she found that she could hardly provide them anything.  Why won’t they just help us, she kept asking, her voice quavering.  Why won’t they just help us.  It is heartbreaking and shameful that the West is not doing more. 

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: Putin as Peter the Great, It’s time to take sides

    SUNDAY 12 JUNE 2022

    Twitter: @cjjohns1951

    Podcasts about Ukraine: “Ukraine: The Latest” The Telegraph; “Ukraine World”; The Kyiv Independent; Euromaidan Press

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • Fighting still intense in Sievierodonetsk. 
    • Ukrainian partisans are making controlling the territory taken by the Russians difficult.  The Russian-controlled airbase in Kherson has been blown up a dozen times.
    • In Izyum, eight soldiers died after being given spiked pies by an elderly lady. (See Economist for article).

    Putin’s Speech

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/06/10/Putin-Peter-Great-comparison/2471654871043/

    • Putin compared himself to Peter the Great, “the country’s first emperor who is credited with making Russia an European power, capturing land through a series of long, successful wars.”
    • In February, Putin had said that invasion was necessary to “denazify” the Ukraine.  He also said that expansion of NATO was a threat to Russian security
    • Zelensky advisor noted that this speech by Putin amounted to a confession that his real goal was to wipe Ukraine out of existence.
    • Advisor: “We should not talk about Russia saving face, but about its immediate de-imperialization.”

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/09/putin-compares-his-actions-to-peter-the-greats-conquests-a77960

    • When Peter the Great founded St. Petersburg, said Putin, and declared it the Russian capital “none of the countries in Europe recognized this territory as belonging to Russia.”
    • Moscow is playing down Peter’s affinity for Europe and focusing instead on his role in expanding Russian territory.
    •  

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68606

    • Putin talks about the place where he is speaking and lectures the students that “…from Soviet times fell into a state of disrepair and was used for a cheap marketplace, but…as the situation in the country improved, so did VDNKh.
    • “…either a country is sovereign, or it is a colony…”
    • “…a colony has no historical prospects, no chance for survival…”
    • “…there were eras in the history of our country when we had to retreat, but only in order to mobilise and move forward…”
    • “without consolidation, things will fall apart.” (2)
    • After noting that he had visited the exhibition dedicated to the 350 anniversary of Peter the Great, he said: “Almost nothing has changed.”
    • In the “great Northern War” Peter the Great was not “taking something away” “he was returning.” “He was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing.”
    • “…it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well.”
    • “They made these mistakes themselves…trying to turn this around on Russia, claiming that Russia is to blame for everything.  We have nothing to do with it.  They imposed restrictions…And then they started imposing sanctions and aggravated the situation in these and other areas even more.”
    • “…we funded their work with our cheap energy resources.”

  • UKRAINE: Putin rips off the mask.

    FRIDAY 10 JUNE 2022

    THE TELEGRAPH Podcast, Ukraine the Latest

    •  
    • The two British men captured in Ukraine several weeks ago, have been sentenced to death for fighting in the war and trying to take power.  There has been talk of a prisoner swap.  A pro-Russian politician in Ukraine may be swapped for the two British men. 
    • Both British men have been accused as being mercenaries.  Is this a threat to all foreign fighters?  Is this an attempt to signal outsiders that if they come to Ukraine to help, they will be put to death if captured?
    • Russia is happy to ignore conventions in every area. 
    • One of the captured men has joint Ukrainian citizenship.  But, nevertheless, if they are combatants, they are prisoners of war and by international law receive the protections of the Geneva Conventions.
    • The Wagner Group fights for Russia and they are a mercenary group.  Are they prepared to be tried and given the death sentence?  (Note: The Wagner group is a mercenary group used by the Russian government to fight in areas where they don’t want to take the responsibility.  They have a reputation of being especially vicious and violent.  It was thought in the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine that they were put in Ukraine primarily for their scare potential.)
    • The sentencing of the two British men to death is thought to be a power play to be used for propaganda purposes.  They will most likely be handed over.
    • Ukrainians have tried combatants for war crimes, but not for being combatants or mercenaries.  (Note: Russian propaganda attempt to equate the two actions.)
    •  
    • There is likely to be an outbreak of cholera in Mariupol.  Medical services are near collapse.  They are struggling to provide basic services. 
    • It will be extremely difficult to hold territories taken by the Russians with such suffering present in these areas.  (Note: People will not forget that after taking over Mariupol promising to take care of basic services, the Russians allowed a cholera outbreak.)
    •  
    • Ammunition is running short for the Ukrainians.  The expected Western munitions are of a different caliber.  The Ukrainians are having to change their systems to adapt to the new munitions.  (See article in the Guardian 6/10/22).
    •   
    • Desertion in the Ukrainian forces.  There is a feeling that Western munitions are not coming in quickly enough and this has led to a discouragement.  There is bothh a material effect and an effect on morale of the promised weapons not being delivered. 
    • There is a feeling among Ukrainians that the West is tiring of the situation.
    • The West’s commitment to this war is vital to morale.  There is a feeling that France and Germany are wanting to make concessions and not send the weapons they had promised.
    •     
    • Putin’s speech on 9 June, compared himself to Peter the Great.
    • Putin just threw away any pretense that this war was about anything but territorial expansion.
    • Speaking in Moscow, Putin said that Peter the Great was “reclaiming” territory.  He presumably thinks that he is doing the same.
    • The mask is cast aside with a flourish of Peter the Great.
    • It’s not about de-nazification, it’s not about NATO expansion, it’s about one man’s ego and expansionism.
    • It’s “pick a side time.”  There can be no question now that Putin is responding to any of the imagined threats he previously named.
    • This blatant announcement of Putin’s intentions is a strategic mistake.  Macron and others will have to take a side and can no longer claim that Putin has a rationale for the invasion. 
    • Putin only sees a few countries as relevant – United States, Russia, and China.  Others are irrelevant. 
    • Putin was proud of what he was saying. There was no question of it being a mistake or a gaff.  Reporters think they were honest words.  There’s nowhere to hide for people who are seeking to hide from Putin’s intentions. 
    • This important speech is not adequately being covered. 
    • They must beef up NATO forces on the eastern front.
    • “Hugely significant speech.”
    • There is an Article in Telegraph about Putin’s speech. 
    • One of the debates has been whether Putin is a Czarist or wanting to reunite the Soviet Union.  It’s obvious now, that it is the former.

  • Ukraine. Propagandizing the schools Russia or the US?

    www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/us/politics/russia-biden-sanctions.html

  • UKRAINE: FULL TEXT OF PUTIN’S SPEECH

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/read-vladimir-putin-s-victory-day-speech-in-full

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: Germany is clearly delaying

    10 JUNE 2022

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • From January to April, Germany increased imports from Russia by 60% and transferred almost 6 billion euros to Moscow.
    • The British citizens who were captured by the Russians were sentenced by a Russian proxy court in eastern Ukraine.
    • EU should grant Ukraine a candidate status. (Note: They should make Ukraine a member.)
    • A base of the mercenary group Wagner was destroyed in Luhansk.
    • An entire unit of Russian mechanized troops deployed near Kharkiv has refused to fight due to loses that it was previously born.
    • The global food crisis caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine is likely to spark a new migrant crisis.

    EUROMAIDAN PRESS

    • Countries opposing Ukraine being granted EU status are Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands.
    • Russia is transferring grain from Ukraine to Russia.

    NEW VOICE OF UKRAINE

    • Zelensky: “Some Western politicians and media are starting to prod Ukraine towards ending the war on unfavorable conditions for us.”
    • Former German Chancellor Merkel refused to admit that Berlin’s Russian policy had been wrong.  (Note: Jesus).
    • According to Der Spiegel, Scholz is “clearly delaying” security assistance to Ukraine.
    • “German policy became a mis of incompetence and lack of will, seeking to hide behind its allies.”

  • Ukraine’s army ‘destroys Wagner mercenaries’ base’ in occupied Kadiivka / The New Voice of Ukraine

    The Ukrainian military carried out a precision strike on the base, located at a stadium in Kadiivka, Luhansk governor says
    — Read on english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-s-army-destroys-wagner-mercenaries-base-in-occupied-kadiivka-50248912.html

  • UKRAINE: “Stalemate is not an option.”

    WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2022

    “Nobody’s going to break us.  We are strong.  We are Ukrainians.”

    Zelensky: “stalemate is not an option.”

    UKRAINE: THE LATEST, The Telegraph Podcast

    • There was a weekend strike on Kyiv. 
    • People are trying to resume something like a normal life in the capitol.
    • Two British men who came over to fight for Ukraine have been jailed by the Russians.
    • The were in the Avostol plant in Mariupol.  They are being tried for being mercenaries.  The big concern is that the charges can carry the death sentence.  They should be treated as prisoners of war.  This is probably an attempt to deter people from joining the Ukrainian effort.
    • Germany’s Scholz is claiming that they are doing more to support Ukraine than the UK.  See https://uk.style.yahoo.com/scholz-says-germany-supporting-ukraine-155232029.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFJCKCpd0XD2an-smQ4Ngr2Tv0M-HcIs70o3XjrRVO_X_HnWmZ7vmdvrv31NoPeMTc5EzwxZdoSXuEgAA9fqvwonmRLwlwTWZ8ztTCS572l9aqV1RthuHB2dLQB_qUMgee_HSMKBW3lL1ywO8AiEbzOBzcy-CiD29lP1uBDkXoI1
    • For Scholz to even make these comments means that they are defensive about their position.
    • Ordinary Ukrainians think UK is helping more than Germany, according to a reporter on the ground.  People are scathing about the Germany response.  There are jokes on the internet about Germany’s support. 
    • Grain: Difficulty getting grain out of Ukraine.  Lavrov is in Turkey.  He says they are willing to ensure safety of grain shipments out of Odesa.  They are saying there’s nothing they can do.  Turkey is also not being helpful.  Turkey is talking about “Russia’s exports.”  There are no Russian exports.  They are Ukrainian exports.
    •  
    • Snake Island (previously attacked by the Russians) is crucially important to whoever holds it.  Thought to be held by the Russians.  Russians thought to be putting defensive weapons on the island.  These are air defense assets. 
    • Russia has lost 25% of its ground forces.  They have other weapons.
    • If you sink the Black Sea fleet, it may be enough for Putin to call for negotiating.  Snake Island will increase in importance.

    THE ECONOMIST

    • Zelensky says that “stalemate is not an option.”

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: Medical collapse and Belarus

    WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE:

    THE GUARDIAN, 6/4/22, Russian man accused of assassinating Alexander Litvinenko dies in Moscow.

    • In 2006, former spy Alexander Litvinenko was poisoned with a radioactive isotope polonium 210 at a London Hotel.
    • The polonium used to assassinate Litvinenko was found in all the hotel rooms where the assassins had stayed in London.
    • A British inquiry found that Litvinenko was murdered in an operation of the FSB and probably approved by Putin.
    • Litvinenko was dismissed from the FSB after publicly criticizing the security services’ connection to organized crime.
    • He also claimed that the FSB was responsible for the bombing of apartment blocks in Moscow in 1999, a campaign that helped consolidate power for Putin.
    • Dmitry Kovtun was one of two men accused of assassinating Litvinenko.  He is now dead.
    • Russia refused to extradite him to Britain for trial.
    • Books: A Very Expensive Poison by Luke Harding; Blowing Up Russia by Felshtinsky and Alexander Litvinienko; Death of a Dissident: The Poisoning of alexander Litvinenko and the Return of theKGB by Boutsikaris and Goldfarb, et. al; The Litvinenko File: The Life and Death of a Russian Spy by Martin Sixsmith.
    • Video: Poisoned by Polonium

    CNN

    • Over 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been transported to Russia for investigation.
    • This is a potential bargaining position by the Russians hoping to exchange these soldiers for those held by the Ukrainians.

    THE GUARDIAN 6/8/22

    • Pro-Russian sentiments are “mainstream in large parts of Africa.”
    • For many years Moscow has been cultivating ties with African leaders.
    • Some of the support comes from anti-western sentiments.  Russia has een accused of amplifying those grievances.
    • Resentments are also stoked by the narrative that the west cares more about Ukraine than other tragedies unfolding in Africa.
    • Putin is it argued by pan-Africanists “doesn’t have the blood of slavery on his hands.”
    • Russia has supplied weapons to “authoritarian leaders.”
    • The Wagner group has propped up authoritarian leaders in Mali, Central African Republic and DRC.

    THE KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • Ukrainian MP accused of treason to be expelled from parliament.  Oleksiy Kovalyov, a lawmaker with Zelensky’s party, went to Kherson and publicly supported the Russian occupation.
    • New Russian offensive prepared on Sloviansk on the Donbas.
    • Lack of medicine is hampering Ukrainian efforts in Kherson.
    • Odesa resident sentenced to 8 years for providing Russian forces with information.
    • Mariupol is facing a “medical collapse.”
    • 100,000 Ukrainians are trapped in occupied Mariupol without utilities, food or water.
    • New activity from military in Belarus.
    • A train carrying stolen Ukrainian grains from Melitopol heads to Crimea.
    • Russia is trying to convince families of sunken cruiser Moskva from disclosing any information regarding the deaths of their relatives.
    • Rising social tension in Russia reported.
    • Zelensky announces a “Book of Executioners” to detail war crimes.

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • In Melitipol, there is talk of fake referendums.
    • 400 million people around the world are dependent on Ukrainian food.
    • Ukraine’s armed forces may leave Sievierodonestsk.

  • Sievierod etsk

    www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/07/russian-assault-on-sievierodonetsk-redoubled-after-counterattack

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: Food, Russia wants a food stalemate

    UKRAINE: THE LATEST, The Telegraph Podcast

    Quote: “We owe the Ukrainians the time to win.” Mick Ryan

    • Looking for more fighting around Izium.
    • Russians have not been able to push further west from Popasna (on the southern part of the pincer, the northern part is Izium).
    • Pooper parts of the world are dependent on this grain.  It is important for those at the very top at the Un to push back on the charges that the US is responsible for the food shortages, which is the Russian narrative.
    • Russia now sees dragging this war out as in their advantage.  They think they see a losing of interest on the part of the Americans.  There is the food crisis, the gas crisis, the cost of living crisis and they think that the US and the Western European countries will start to waver as these problem grow severe.  Putin expects them to put pressure on Ukraine for a ceasefire giving up territory.
    • Food is just a front in the war.  The Russians have no reason to help make the food situation less serious.  It is one of the cards Putin has to play. 
    • Grain could be moved by train, and there are evidently discussions within NATO about moving the train that way or by an escorted naval force.  This would run the risk of escalating the war.  We risk hyperinflation of food prices.  It is talked about as a defensive action.  This is being taken seriously.
    • This would be an extremely dangerous expedition, trying to get grain out by militarily defended ships.  This is a fanciful plan.  Trying to get grain out with rail would take a very long time.
    • It benefits Russia for the food situation not to be resolved.  Any resolution would involve demands on Russia’s part that sanctions be lifted or other things.
    • There are a lot of very complicated arrangements being proposed to transfer weapons from one country to another and the weapons are outdated. 
    • Almost everybody is critical of Germany’s role in the providing of weapons to Ukraine.  They are talking tough but doing very little.  Germany is learning the wrong lessons from its history.  They are so afraid of “humiliating” Putin.
    • The German population is not happy about the government’s performance on Ukraine.
    • Medvedev issued an outburst overnight.  It is uncharacteristic of him.  Undiplomatic language.  There is a suggestion that his statement was intended for domestic consumption in Russia.
    • The man behind the assassination of Litvinenko died suddenly, supposedly of COVID.   In future negotiations it might be inconvenient to have people like this hanging around who might be able to talk.  It might be demanded that he face trial in the UK.  Even if this case is not one of assassination, the Kremlin could be thinking in this direction about problematic people.
    •