https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/14/russia-could-invade-ukraine-within-next-month-us-intelligence.html
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Putin’s whims will ultimately be the deciding factor.
- “Officials from virtually all sides are warning that the risk of a large-scale, conventional war on the European continent is greater than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Few agree on how to stop it.”
- Republicans who regularly travel to Russia and who supported Putin during the Trump administration are now trying to claim they are tougher on Russia than the Democrats.
- U.S. officials have claimed in recent days that they have intelligence showing that Russia is organizing a “false flag” operation which would create a pretext for a Russian conventional invasion of Ukraine.
- While sanctions are threatened, the sanctions imposed on Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 failed to either reestablish Crimea as an independent entity or deter Putin from further aggressive actions.
- One European official maintained that a sanctions strategy was being planned that could be announced within hours of a potential invasion.
- Note: Many argue that the sanctions should have already been imposed. The Ukrainians are trying to push Biden into sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline now rather than waiting until after an invasion.
- The energy situation in the EU, especially Germany, makes it unlikely that strong energy sanctions will be imposed.
- The new German government (more environmentally conscious than the previous one) has been unwilling to commit to blocking Nord Stream 2.
- Because of an agreement struck with Germany by the Biden administration, Democrats recently found themselves voting against sanctions on Nord Stream 2.
- Note: Given this agreement, it is hard to see how reaction to Nord Stream 2 can even be a threat.
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You will note that the majority opinion is unsigned.
— Read on www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a38768714/supreme-court-vaccine-mandate-decision/ -
After a hacker leaked data from the paramilitary group the Oath Keepers, reports link active-duty police personnel to the far-right militia group.
— Read on www.msnbc.com/opinion/how-trump-steered-america-s-police-straight-oath-keepers-n1283431 -
Shoot ‘without warning’ to quash revolt, Kazakhstan president orders troops | Courthouse News Service
— Read on www.courthousenews.com/shoot-without-warning-to-quash-revolt-kazakhstan-president-orders-troops/ -
7 January 2022
Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelensky campaigned for and was elected president of Ukraine in 2019 promising to do something about oligarchic control of the economy and society. He vowed to take on the oligarchy and limit their power. Two years later, even faced with a build up of Russian military might on his border he is trying to fulfill some of those promises.
In the name of “deoligarchisation” Zelensky’s government has targeted some of Ukraine’s most powerful oligarchy including pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk. Medvedchuk was placed under house arrest and charged with crimes including treason. Medvedchuk, of course, claims that the charges are “political repression.”
The Zelensky administration introduced legislation that legally defined oligarchs and subjected them to restrictions including a ban on financing political parties.
Critics have argued that these moves are intended to impress U.S. President Biden, and are cosmetic, but they are occurring none the less.
In November of 2021, the Atlantic Council published an article claiming that:
“…the Ukrainian parliament recently passed de-oligarchization legislation to prevent oligarchs from purchasing elections, wielding undue influence over Ukraine’s government and economy, or possessing the power to stymie Ukraine’s reform progress and democratic potential.”
The article noted the problem of a media space dominated by oligarch-controlled outlets that combine TV, news, and social media channels to influence the political debate inside Ukraine. It was also noted that when Zelensky’s administration introduced this legislation and “insisted on its adoption” the media outlets which were oligarch controlled began to attack him.
The article notes that there is an expectation that the oligarchs will try to sabotage key sectors of the Ukrainian economy to stop the reforms.
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The possibilities are myriad and — especially for the hopes of an independent, thriving and democratic Ukraine — range from bad to worse.
— Read on www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/07/what-putin-wants-in-ukraine/ -
7 January 2022
Ahmaud Arbery
Sentences for the men who hunted down and murdered Ahmaud Arbery were handed down in a Brunswick, Georgia courtroom today. Two of the men, Greg and Travis McMichael, were sentenced to life without parole plus additional years. William Bryan was sentenced to life with the possibility of parole and a consecutive number of years. This means, for Bryan, that after he is eligible for parole in 30 years, this additional sentenced will be added on.
There is no way to celebrate the sentencing of men to prison, but these men participated in a crime so hateful and cruel no other alternative was possible. It bears remembering, though, that had this case been left in the local jurisdiction, there would have been no trial, no conviction, no sentencing.
The local Glynn County authorities tried their hardest to cover up, gloss over, minimize this case. The District Attorney at the time, Jackie Johnson, has herself been indicted for the way she handled the case.
Because of the tenacity of Ahmaud Arbery’s mother and the work of various other civil rights activists, this case not only was brought to trial, but was taken out of the hands of the local authorities. So many things had to go perfectly for a guilty verdict to have been rendered.
As a citizen of Glynn County I am still amazed that a nearly all-white jury handed down a guilty verdict.
But, as the prosecutor pointed out, even though the actual chase and killing of Ahmaud Arbery involved minutes, this event was a product of years of preparation. The men involved spent years festering in a stew of racial hatred, suspicion, and entitlement. That has not gone away. It was obvious from the testimony of some of the people in the Satilla Shores neighborhood that they shared the ingrained racism of the defendants.
I do not believe that the case of the District Attorney has been taken out of the hands of local authorities.
When the Ahmaud Arbery case was first being tried, members of the families of others who had been violently treated by local police (and police pretenders) were present. The parents of a young woman who had been shot through the windshield of her parked car and killed were present. The police officers involved were protected and not prosecuted by the office of Jackie Johnson. There are many other cases handled by the DA’s office that we don’t even know about.
I don’t think there can be justice when a young man is hunted down and shot in the street for nothing more than being in a neighborhood where men are prepared to kill if they cannot intimidate. We will soon see if this justice extends to the people who tried to cover it up.
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www.nytimes.com/2022/01/06/world/asia/kazakhstan-putin-russia.html
“Vladimir V. Putin of Russia sent troops to the Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan on Thursday to try to extinguish the latest in a series of dangerous fires to engulf the lands of the former Soviet Union, territory that Moscow views as its own sphere of influence but has struggled to keep calm.”
The arrival in Kazakhstan of 2,500 troops from a Russian-led military alliance amid continuing spasms of violent protest was the fourth time in just two years that Moscow has flexed its muscle in neighboring states — Belarus, Armenia and Ukraine being the other three — that the West has long tried to woo.
How much this assertive role really contributes to Mr. Putin’s longstanding goal of restoring Russian dominance over much of the former Soviet sphere is a matter of heated debate.
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Fanatical, extreme religious faith wasn’t incidental to last year’s Capitol assault: It was a central driving force
— Read on www.salon.com/2022/01/06/how-christian-nationalism-drove-the-insurrection-a-religious-history-of-jan-6/ -
5 January 2022
Volodymyr Zelensky was an actor when he was elected President of Ukraine in 2019. Zelensky had appeared regularly on a TV series where he played a history teacher whose rant against political corruption vent viral and made him president. The Ukrainians, widely disillusioned with their own politicians, were so enchanted with the fictional story they made Zelensky the real president. The political party of the history teacher character on the television series, the “Servant of the People,” became the actual political party of Zelensky when he ran for president against incumbent Petro Poroshenko.
Zelensky was what all disaffected voters love – an outsider at least from conventional politics. And, he had said in his fictional viral rant, what many people knew to be true, i.e., that corruption was strangling the life out of the country. Hopes were high for Zelensky when he won election with 73% of the vote.
Two years later, Zelensky is struggling to fulfill some of the promises for fundamental social change he made during his campaign. In 2014, after pro-Russian puppet Viktor Yanukovych (for whom Paul Manafort worked) was ousted from the presidency and had to flee. Russia then seized Crimea and backed (or created) separatists who took over large areas of the region.
When Zelensky came to power, he promised to bring peace to the region and to end conflict in the Dunbas, another region where Russian separatists were taking over. Zelensky criticized his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, for not negotiating effectively to end these conflicts.
But, Zelensky has not been able to deliver on his promises of peace. The war between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists continues and now there is a massive built up of troops on the Ukrainian border.
Zelensky initially made an effort to compromise with the Russians over their territorial claims. There were peace talks between the two countries, prisoner exchanges and moves toward establishing a peace process, known as the Minsk agreement. But, after Russia began issuing passports to the Russian-speakers in the contested territories, talks soured.
To make matters worse, the dictator of Belarus, Alyaksandre Lukashenka, has ceased to be a defender of Ukraine in its struggle with Russia.
When the Russian attack on Ukraine began in 2014, Lukashenka made great efforts to publicize his neutrality. He refused to recognize Russia’s claims to Crimea, politically declared that he would not permit an attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, and ridiculed Putin’s historical arguments justifying an invasion of Ukraine.
But, in August of 2020, Lukashenka launched a brutal response to nationwide protests over rigged presidential elections. This made him an international pariah. In the aftermath of the vote there were mass anti-regime demonstrations across the country. Lukashenka appeared to be in danger of losing power entirely. But, Vladamir Putin intervened and propped Lukashenka up with financial assistance, Kremlin propagandists and a public promise of security forces.
From this point onward, the dependence of Lukashenka on Putin only increased. Lukashenka launched a prolonged crackdown on domestic opposition and escalated an increasingly acrimonious confrontation with the West. One of the most widely publicized acts was a May 2021 incident where a commercial EU airliner was forced down while going over Belarusian airspace and a dissident Belarusian journalists was abducted from among the passengers.
After recent talks with Putin, Lukashenka has announced plans to deploy Russian air defense systems along the Ukrainian border.
Zelensky is making a courageous effort to confront corruption in Ukrainian society and fulfill his campaign promises, but he is also confronting a dangerous situation with Russia. It appears that Zelensky has reached the conclusion that Putin cannot be negotiated with and given the retreat of the West from foreign conflicts, he and the Ukrainians face this perilous situation by themselves.
Sources:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59667938
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If you are at all interested in the build up of Russian troops on the border of Ukraine, you should listen to the podcast “Ukraine World.” It is by far the most intelligent discussion of the situation.
The following are notes from several of the Ukraine World podcasts.
- Ukrainian president Zelensky came to office arguing that more negotiation was needed with Russia and that the previous administration in Ukraine had done a bad job of negotiating. Two years later, halfway through Zelensky’s term, he has come to the conclusion that Putin cannot be negotiated with and does not want peace.
- Even though the situation on the border is extremely serious, Zelensky seems to be also fighting major battles domestically. As one commentator phrased it, Zelensky seems to be “waging a war against everybody else in Ukrainian politics.” These “internal turbulences” are creating an unstable situation inside Ukraine.
- It is unclear whether Zelensky is battling against powerful domestic players and interests for reasons of his own, or is being manipulated by others. Who these others might be was not explained.
- The rhetoric coming out of Russia seems to be intended to prepare the Russian population for war. As one commentator said, Putin is almost promising that Russia will invade Ukraine. Another commentator stated: Putin is “preparing the Russian public to the fact that the war is inevitable.”
- It also seems clear that the West is unwilling to engage in a full-fledged war with Russia over Ukraine. Russia perceives the West as withdrawing.
- After the feckless and disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration is almost certain not to involve itself in another war.
- Even though the Biden administration has made clear that there will be sanctions if Russia invades, many point out that Russia has already invaded Ukraine. Sanctions have already been applied to Russia and the Russians have not withdrawn.
- The Russian government has been taking steps to make the economy sanction proof, or at least more sanction proof so that sanctions are unlikely to have a significant impact.
- In addition, meaningful sanctions would affect powerful economic interests and are unlikely to be implemented no matter how much they are touted by the Biden administration.
- There is extensive ideological work going on in Russia preparing the population for war. Even on popular talk shows on television, there is discussion about Ukraine having plans to militarily take back the territories. Russia is distributing Russian passports to Russian-speakers in occupied territories.
- There is a distinct advantage in exporting chaos. Conflicts rouse nationalistic fervor in Russia and help distract people from their stalled economy and decreased standard of living.
- The underlying narrative is that there are serious external threats but also victories against those threats (such as in Crimea). The taking of territory is a success, so don’t complain about how you are living.
- The west was reluctant to encourage Ukraine to become a separate country after the fall of the Soviet Union. George Bush, Sr. went to Kiev in 1991 in an attempt to calm down the Ukrainians and persuade them not to leave the Soviet Union. The west is afraid of a breakup of the Soviet Union. The narrative inside Russia, however, is completely different.
- There, the Zelensky administration is portrayed as being a puppet of the West. And, there are dire warnings that just as the U.S. left Afghanistan, it will leave Ukraine.
- The Ukrainians in fact helped support U.S. troops in the withdrawal from Afghanistan. At a time when it was too dangerous politically to risk U.S. soldiers leaving the airport in Kabul, Ukrainian troops went into Kabul and helped people get to safety at the airport. Ukraine was anxious to demonstrate that it could be a helpful ally, a country that could help as well as ask for assistance.
- Internal polling inside Ukraine indicates that if a presidential election were held today, Zelensky would get approximately 24% of the vote, but there are three parties opposing him. Two of them are pro-Russian.
- The Zelensky administration is being drained by the conflict on the border. And Zelensky’s own conflicts domestically are fracturing the country.
- Ukrainians are understandably distrustful of their politicians. Hopes for Zelensky when he was elected were extremely high. Calmer souls warned that Zelensky could not possibly deliver on the promises he was making. Now, disenchantment has set in.
- Corruption remains a serious problem and hopes that Zelensky could do anything about this ingrained corruption were probably misplaced.
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Ukrainian Ex-President Petro Poroshenko Accused of Treason, Ally Says – Bloomberg
— Read on www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/ukrainian-ex-president-poroshenko-accused-of-treason-ally-says
Law, Power, and Justice 