Weeks ago, the German press was reporting that Biden had taken off the table what was said to be one of the most effective sanctions against Russia, i.e., removing Russia from the SWIFT system. Reuters reported the German article but did not independently confirm the story. Then, a whole group of articles started to appear in the Western press about how removing Russia from SWIFT could backfire on Western economies.
On Friday, U.S. officials admitted that it was unlikely that any sanctions package would include removal of Russia from the SWIFT system. The corporate media (to my knowledge) has yet to ask a government official what the purpose was of taking SWIFT off the table at a time when President Zelensky is begging for sanctions.
The Journal, a podcast of the Wall Street Journal, is reporting that the “crippling sanctions” threatened by the Biden administration are likely not to be effective. The reason is simple. The only sanctions that will seriously hurt Russia are those involving cutting off revenues from gas and oil. As the commentator notes, this is unlikely to happen.
Germany needs Russian gas. Germany is trying to transition off both coal and nuclear. Some experts don’t think Germany is even able to do without Russian gas. The pipeline gave Germany access to cheap gas for the first time. Before, they were buying more expensive gas from other pipelines. Now, Germany is Russia’s biggest customer.
Even though Biden blithely announced that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. would stop Nordstream 2, it is unclear that he can do that.
We shouldn’t have to beg; this is about your investment in European security,” Volodymyr Zelensky told the Munich conference crowd, reminding them that Ukraine had acted as a “shield” for Europe, “holding back one of the biggest armies in the world”.
— Read on www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60451034
The first time I remember being aware of the Wagner Group was late last year when I was reading about the criticisms of Ukraine’s president Zelensky. There were some who were not happy with the way a situation worked out which involved mercenaries from the Wagner group who were thought to have been tricked into flying over Ukrainian air space. The purpose, evidently, was to force a landing of the plane they were in and arrest them for crimes they had committed in Ukraine’s separatist territories. The plan went terribly wrong and there were contradicting stories about whose fault it was.
Zelensky stated that he would have never put people on the plane at risk by forcing a landing while flying over Ukraine and denied responsibility. Others claimed that Zelensky had put a stop to the operation and caused chaos. The mercenaries were arrested in Belarus and eventually returned to Russia.
This article from Bellingcat gives a detailed account of the operation.
The Waner Group is a Russian paramiitary organization, PMC, or Private Military Company. Sometimes compared to Eric Prince’s Blackwater, its contractors have reportedly taken part in various conflicts (Syrian civil war on the side of the Syrian government, 2014-2015 war in Donbas aiding the separatists) and other conflicts.
The NYT has characterized the Warner Group as a unit of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) and the GRU in disguise, used in government sponsored efforts when deniability is needed. It’s forces are trained on MOD installations.
The Warner Group is believed to be owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin a businessman close to Putin. The Wagner Group itself first showed up in 2014, in the Luhansk region of Ukraine. The company’s name comes from the man thought to be its founder, Utkin, and his own call sign (“Wagner”), which he allegedly chose due to his passion for the Third Reich.
The organization is said to be registered in Argentina, but has offices in Saint Petersburg and Hong Kong.
New recruits are cut off from all social media and prevented from taking photos , etc. during training. They are required to sign a 10-year confidentiality agreement.
According to the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) there are Ukrainian nationals working for Wagner, around 40, but the other 95% of Wagner contractors are Russian.
Prigozhin was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2016 for involvement in Ukraine conflict. In 2017, the Wagner Group itself was sanctioned. There were further sanctions in 2018 and 2020. Prigozhin was also sanctioned by the EU and the UK in 2020. In December 2021, the EU imposed sanctions against the Wagner Group and eight individuals and three entities connected with it, for committing “serious human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings, or in destabilising activities in some of the countries they operate in, including Libya, Syria, Ukraine (Donbas) and the Central African Republic.”
The following is from Wikipedia:
“Following the deployment of its contractors between 2017 and 2019, to Sudan,[20] the Central African Republic,[21] Madagascar,[96] Libya[27] and Mozambique,[30] the Wagner Group had offices in 20 African countries, including Eswatini, Lesotho and Botswana, by the end of 2019. Early in 2020, Erik Prince, founder of the Blackwater private military company, sought to provide military services to the Wagner Group in its operations in Libya and Mozambique, according to The Intercept.[98] By March 2021, Wagner PMCs were reportedly also deployed in Zimbabwe, Angola, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, and possibly the Democratic Republic of Congo.”
Private military organizations are not allowed to operate legally in Russia.
• Ukraine military intelligence has confirmed that Russia’s Wagner (mercenary) troops have arrived in Donetsk. This is very bad news. They are specialists at terrorist attacks, blowing up residential buildings, with the intention of blaming Kyiv.
From other sources:
Reporter Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) posted that China’s foreign minister has stated that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of every country should be safeguarded.” “Ukraine is no exception.”
Unconfirmed tweet (UT): Ukraine has been the leading supplier of military technologies to China.
Unconfirmed tweet (UT): China has facilitated a lot of infrastructure in Ukraine.
UT: “…this doesn’t mean BJ won’t back UR assertions that US-led encirclement justifies action.”
UT: Rest of statement includes: “The Minsk Agreement is the only way out in resolving the Ukraine issue, and it should not be a frontline for rivalry among major powers.”
UT: “…this is a bargain: “Let China control the South China Sea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, and China backs the west against Russia over Ukraine.”
The heightened tensions regarding Russian military buildup on Ukrainian borders, threatening with renewed large-scale invasion, have just reached their | Uacrisis.org
— Read on uacrisis.org/en/escalation-not-evacuation
KIEV, UKRAINE – OCTOBER 01: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media on October 1, 2019 in Kiev, Ukraine. Ukraine has been at the core of a political storm in U.S. politics since the release of a whistleblower’s complaint suggesting U.S. President Donald Trump, at the expense of U.S. foreign policy, pressured Ukraine to investigate Trump’s rival, Joe Biden, and Biden’s son, Hunter. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Zelensky traveled to Munich to shore up relationships with the western leaders. In an impressive interview with Christaine Amapour, Zelensky made the following points:
• If the West is so sure Putin is going to invade, why not implement sanctions now?
• The West will not even provide a detailed list of sanctions.
• What is the point of sanctions after the Russians have destroyed the economy and the infrastructure.
• You cannot live in a country anticipating war every day. What kind of economy would you have then? Panic would crush the national currency, business would flee. There would be no stability.
• Living in fear only strengthens the enemies from within who want Ukraine to be weak – to have a weak economy, a weak military.
• Ukrainians have to assess the situation and decide how to react. (Note: I presume this means rather than being told how to react).
• If panic starts people will withdraw money from accounts. If you want to help give us arms, invest in our country.
• Ukrainians and Western leaders have a “different vision” on sanctions. Ukraine doesn’t need sanctions after the country is fired at, attacked, when we will have no economy, no borders and our country will be occupied.
• It was “important” for Zelensky to come to Munich. (Note: Several U.S. military commentators on corporate news, warned that he should not leave Ukraine.) One of the CNN commentators said he understood why Zelensky had come, since he garnered a world audience to plead his case. Zelensky noted that he had breakfast in Ukraine and would have dinner in Ukraine.
From other sources, Ukraine:
There are orders of a “massive and urgent” evacuation of civilians near Rostov in Donbas.
This can mean that a decision has been made on an offensive operation in Donbas.
These evacuations can be used as provocation blamed on the Ukrainians.
Some tweets from Ukraine were noting this morning that people were afraid to get on the evacuation busses because they feared Russians would attack the busses to create a provocation by blaming the Ukrainians.
Russian-installed Donetsk and Luhansk leaders have declared mobilization of 18-55 year old men, banning them from leaving.
Russian state media is saying that a shell hit Russian territory.
Russian troops have not left Belarus (where they were supposedly doing exercises).
Tweet: Evacuation means Escalation.
Richard Engel (NBC): Russia has nearly half it’s military forces in attack positions around Ukraine. Putin is accusing Ukraine of genocide. The Russians are accusing the west of being hysterical?
Russia is blaming Ukraine for preparing “chemical weapons” but does not call international inspections to check to see if this is true.
Zelensky got a thunderous standing ovation after an interview in Munich.
(Note: I think the snake Chris Coons was in the audience).
Russian media has been portraying Ukraine as an aggressive state for years.
The narrative that Ukraine is an aggressive state has intensified in the past months.
Russian media is accusing Ukraine of a military buildup.
Russia has pushed proxies in occupied Donbas to announce massive evacuations.
Putin continues the narrative of a “genocidal” Ukraine.
Parallels are made by Russians to “Nazi” crimes. (Note: Again, this has been going on for years).
Russia shelling Ukrainian positions near border to provoke a response and justify an attack.
There are those predicting that this indicates an escalation around Donbas again.
Russian government-backed hackers have acquired sensitive information on the development and deployment of US weapons by breaching American defense contractors over the last two years, US security agencies said in a public advisory on Wednesday.
— Read on www.cnn.com/2022/02/16/politics/us-russia-defense-contractors-hackers/index.html
KIEV, UKRAINE – OCTOBER 01: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media on October 1, 2019 in Kiev, Ukraine. Ukraine has been at the core of a political storm in U.S. politics since the release of a whistleblower’s complaint suggesting U.S. President Donald Trump, at the expense of U.S. foreign policy, pressured Ukraine to investigate Trump’s rival, Joe Biden, and Biden’s son, Hunter. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
In the event of a Russian invasion, analysts fear the bridge could be one of many potential routes for Russian forces currently deployed to Belarus for military exercises to make their way further into Ukrainian territory.
A few days ago, maps of Ukraine with flags representing Russian troops suddenly changed. There at the bottom left, in another country bordering Ukraine, was a flag. How did that get there?
The flag is on Ukraine’s southwestern flank and on Moldova’s eastern border. Why, I wondered, did we never hear about Russians moving troops into Moldova? I soon found out. Russia occupies that part of Moldova.
They occupy that strip of Moldova without the consent of the Moldovians. The area, east Mondova’s Dniester River is called Transdniestria. There are reportedly 1,500 to 2,000 Russian soldiers with significant stockpiles of weapons and ammunition occupying the region. The Russians also exercise overall control over separatist armed groups in Transdniestria. This is yet another region where Russia supports proxy forces.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a short civil war between Moldovan loyalists and Transnistrian separatists in the early 1992. Moldova, NATO, Ukraine and the U.s. have all called on Russia to withdraw the troops.
Since 2002, Russia has been issuing passports to residents which has infuriated Kyiv and Chisinau, Moldova’s capital.
Transnistria has its own security services, government, currency, and border control. It also has a site which is estimated to be the “largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe.” It is in the village of Cobasna, where 22,000 tons of ammunition is housed.
The European Court for Human Rights has found Russia guilty of human rights violations in the Transnistrian region. Ion Manole, executive director of the human rights group Promo-LEX has stated:
“We cannot speak about respect for human rights in this region. The main reason for this is impunity. It’s a closed territory where journalists, specialists, lawyers, and human rights defenders are not accepted. So we cannot even monitor the status of human rights as we would like.”
One company appears to own almost all of the petrol stations, supermarkets, and distilleries – Sheriff, a name synonymous with Transnistria. It is owned by a former Soviet police officer, Viktor Gushan. The opaque organization is influential in politics, Transnistrian trade and everyday life.
According to Freedom House, this unrecognized state is “not free.”
