Reports are that Israel has attacked “military targets” in Iran, near Tehran. This attach was publicly warned about. This is a retaliation for the October 1 attack of Israel. Biden wants to avoid a “new cycle of retaliation.” The US has moved personnel into Israel to respond to any retaliation by Iran.
(Note: This is such a strange phase of warfare, where states warn of attacks, launch specified target attacks, and call it even, or at least that is the hope.)
John Brennan, former CIA:
Netanyahu has listened to the US and not attacked nuclear or civilian targets.
The question is if there were a significant number of military casualties, which would provoke a response. (Note: Again, it is weird to be calculating the exact number of casualties which are acceptable and what is over that number. It’s like a game.)
Ayman Mohyeldin
They are military targets, barracks, offices, weapons depot.
Iran has said that they would respond to any attack.
But, still it seems to depend on the targets. Infrastructure, nuclear and civilian would provoke an attack.
Israel killed a military guy inside Iran, Iran gave heads up about response, signaled that they were through.
Leader of Hezbollah killed, there was a response where missiles landed inside Israel.
This is the third round of attacks. Each side thinks they are retaliating to the other side.
Ben Rhodes (former Obama Administration, note: good guy)
CNN (Anderson Cooper)
Amanpour
(Note: No energy targets or oil targets, infrastructure. Iran would consider existential and respond.)
“Everybody knew this was going to happen.”
The direction of the planes? They might have to fly over several Arab countries.
Iran has trying to keep Arab countries “neutral.”
“There’s been a lot of telegraphing.”
It is considered that the nuclear facilities couldn’t be attacked unless US participation was involved.
This appears to be aircraft dropping bombs or missiles from the planes. This is a first.
(Note: There are reported attacks in other countries. We don’t know if this is part of the Israeli attack.)
This is about deterrence. Israel is the dominant military force. Iran cannot challenge Israel.
Iran doesn’t want things to get out of control and expand to a wider conflict.
The oil facilities are quite vulnerable. They could easily be attacked.
Welcome to life under Republicans – no regulations. E Coli outbreak from McDonalds and Costo recalls Salmon because of listeria. Want no controls on food? Vote Republican.
Podcast: Battlelines, The Telegraph Putin’s New World Order (10/25/24)
In Russia a summit, a “new anti-western world order.”
Elections in Moldova and Georgia.
At the Russian summit: BRICS summit.
James Kilner is at the summit.
Putin is using this summit to show that he is not isolated in the world. There are a lot of police on the streets. 36 leaders from different countries.
2009 BRICS was a smaller club, five major economies. Russia took on the chair and four countries joined up Ethiopia, UAE, Iran and Egypt. SA became an observer state.
Up to 12 more countries are probably going to join up.
There is talk of Turkey (a NATO member) joining up. This would be major.
The Kremlin has linked Ukraine with BRICS for the first time. Putin is building an anti-western economic bloc.
Is this theatre or substance?
High level diplomacy is being done. This is an important meeting for Iran.
The Putin talk is: The “multi-polar world” is taking shape. It implies that other nations around the world could be sovereign, not just the US. They definitely mean it in an anti-west way. The language is about a democratizing effort.
Russians see everything through the prism of Ukraine.
Moldovia: Future EU membership received a razor thin yes vote. What happens in Georgia will be pivotal.
Neither country is at BRICS
(This is an excellent podcast, worth listening to every word. I am at my limit at the moment. Will try to finish the notes later.)
Life Notes:
I am losing my mind waiting for this election. I feel as if I’m on death row.
Tried to find the Munch “scream” cat, but this was the best I could do. Going to take a nap. oK. fOUND IT.
Zelensky is in the US talking to Biden and Harris about his Victor Plan.”
Ukraine has no interest in giving up because Russia has no interest in the existence of Ukraine.
Harris has said that there could be no end to this war without Ukraine.
Mariia Zolkina, Ukrainian Researcher, is the head of a think tank in Kyiv.
In 2014, Crimea, part of Ukraine was annexed by Russia. In Early 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine.
Putin has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine is a historical part of Russia and refuses to accept it as a separate country.
(Note: A Ukrainian friend asked me how I was so certain that Putin was going to invade in early 2022 when everybody was saying that Putin would be mad to invade. I couldn’t remember, but now I remember it was a speech made by Putin that clearly demonstrated his conviction that Ukraine did not exist separate from Russia).
The Russians ae systematically destroying Ukrainian power plants and utility systems which would make the cities, especially, unlivable in the winter.
People will not have power for hours at the time, no elevators for high rise apartment buildings, no electricity, no water, heating. (Note: My friend south of Kyiv has power only a few hours a day. She makes jewelry.)
In august, Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia proper in Kursk. Since then, Russia has reconquered about a forth of that land and made advances in the east.
They are at a huge cost in lives, taking back the last cities under Ukrainian control in the Donsk.
Ukraine wants admission to NATO, a release from restrictions on one type of missile to be used in the attack deep inside Russia. Third, the sanctions are no longer working well. Russia has worked it’s way around the sanctions. They must be tightened.
Zelensky feels that if these measures were taken, the war could be over next year.
Part 1: Democrats
Biden has supported Ukraine.
Mary Ann Marsh, Democratic Strategist
Harris has had “hands-on” involvement in the US support for and work with Ukraine and Zelensky.
Earlier this month an announced $425 million of military aid.
The US has provided funds, weapons and pilot training.
The legislature has just approved an individual and business increase in taxes.
Considering American presidents, Biden has been much more supportive than Obama. “Crimea gave Putin license in his mind to go ahead and invade Ukraine and any place else he wants.”
The Republicans
Matthew Kroenig, the Atlantic Council, author of “We win, they lose, Republican foreign policy and the New Cold War.”
Trump said that Zelensky was the best salesman in the world.
(Note: This guy thinks that Trump’s unpredictability is a deterrent to Putin. He also argues that Putin was tough and clear with Putin about the consequences of invading Ukraine.)
Trump communicated that there would be “severe consequences.” (Note: Bull shit.)
17.00
Trump has said that the US is giving Ukraine too much aide. He is skeptical about Biden’s strategy. His instinct is to bring it to a close.
The government should be thinking about what a deal to end the war would look like, who would be at the table.
There’s a 50-50 chance that Trump would be “forcing a negotiation.”
The Moment of Risk: Part Four
Matthew Stadow, World United Services Institute
Ukraine’s success is to deny Russia their main objective.
The end of Biden’s administration and the beginning of another is going to be a moment of Risk.
Russians have been “refurbishing old equipment” for the battlefield. This is expensive production of new tanks, shells, etc. Can they produce the new stuff at a rate they are losing it.
Russians potentially see a ceasefire as a time to regroup.
Europe can act as “more of an insurance.” Europe has not delivered everything it has pledged. Is there the political will to fulfill what it has promised.
One more day. We have one more day before the crew comes back to work on what started out to be a minor renovation of a screened in porch. Now, after the discovery of a major water leak that has turned one of our outside walls into mush, it is a demolition and rebuild project.
Our cats have been champs, but they spend most of their day on their porches upstairs and down, and they are depressed and disapproving.
Strike at Boeing. Did you know there was an enormous strike at Boeing? No, I didn’t either. The TV news is hopeless. When I turned it on this morning, the line across the bottom of the screen was about Trump criticizing some golfer’s body? One of the panelists was making fun of Trump’s make-up. Now, it’s not that I don’t think that’s fun, but really, with everything that is going on in the world, is this really what we want to be spending time on?
Having said that, Tara Setmayer made a comment about Trump’s supporters that was both obvious and never said enough. “This is who they are.” She is talking about the dummies lined up behind Trump at the rally last night, laughing and yucking it up about Arnold Palmer’s dick. I agree with her. We just have to accept this. Men who make dick size jokes and men who laugh at the jokes, have a problem.
Georgia
The U.S. Justice Department at least criminally sentenced some individuals involved in a big-rigging conspiracy in the concrete industry. These guys were participating in a scheme to fix prices and rig bids near Savannah. Housing involves concrete. Fixing prices of an essential building material affects every person who is trying to buy a home or rent one.
Election: Republicans will lie, cheat, steal, do everything to “win” this election.
The Justice Department has filed suit to stop Alabama’s systematic removal of voters from registration rolls. An order was issued requiring Alabama to stop a “recently-implemented program to remove voters from Alabama’s voting rolls between now and the Nov. 5 general election.” They were also ordered to issue “guidance to all counties in Alabama” to restore deactivated voters.
“ The injunction also requires the state to work with country registrars to ensure that affected voters are notified that their inclusion in the state’s wayward removal program does not establish their ineligibility to vote or subject them to criminal prosecution for registering to vote or for voting. The injunction further requires the State to facilitate a remedial mailing to each registrant inactivated as part of the voter removal process who did submit a voter removal request advising them that if they are a U.S. citizen and otherwise meet voter qualifications, they have the right to vote. Finally, the court ordered the State to inform the Alabama Attorney General in writing that voters were inaccurately referred to the Attorney General for criminal investigation.”
(Note: Can you imagine the confusion? This will have the effect of preventing some people from voting just because they can’t understand and are threatened by all the government contacts. This is going on all over the country.)
White Collar, Corporate Crime
As Jesse Eisinger (author of “The Chickenshit Club”) points out, none of the individuals involved in this massive fraud scheme (that affects national security) were sent to prison.
(Note: This is how corporate crime law is structured and functions to allow powerful and wealthy criminals to operate freely and pay no consequences.)
Excerpts from the DOJ Release
Raytheon will enter into a three-year deferred prosecution agreement (DPA)…a criminal information…charging Raytheon with two counts of major fraud against the United States.
….Raytheon admitted to engaging in two separate schemes to defraud the Department of Defense (DOD) in connection with the provision of defense articles and services, including PATRIOT missile systems and a radar system.
Separately, Raytheon entered into a three-year DPA (Note: This means we won’t prosecute you if you behave a little bit better in the future, who wouldn’t want that deal?) in connection with a criminal information…charging Raytheon with…conspiracy to violate the anti-bribery provision…for a scheme to bribe a government official in Qatar and conspiracy…for willfully failing to disclose the bribes in export licensing applications with the Department of State…
Both agreements require that Raytheon retain an independent compliance monitor (Note: A baby sitter) for three years, enhance its internal compliance program (Note: Are you kidding me?), report evidence of additional misconduct to the Justice Department (Note: Again, are you f…ing kiddingme?), and cooperate in any ongoing or future criminal investigations.
Raytheon also reached a separate False Claims Act settlement… relating to the defective pricing schemes….
…the Justice Department’s resolutions ensure that…federal agencies can proceed with determining whether Raytheon or any other individuals or entities associated with the company should be suspended or debarred as federal contractors. (Note: Not imprisoned).
….
“Raytheon engaged in criminal schemes to defraud the U.S. government in connection with contracts for critical military systems and to win business through bribery in Qatar,” said Deputy Assistant Attorney General Kevin Driscoll… “Such corrupt and fraudulent conduct, especially by a publicly traded U.S. defense contractor, erodes public trust and harms the DOD, businesses that play by the rules, and American taxpayers. Today’s resolutions, with criminal and civil recoveries totaling nearly $1 billion, reflect the Criminal Division’s ability to tackle the most significant and complex white-collar cases across multiple subject matters.” (Note: But not imprison those responsible. This is exactly what Jesse Eisinger’s book “The Chickenshit Club” is about.)
….Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brian M. Boynton, head of the Justice Department’s Civil Division. “The department is committed to holding accountable those contractors that knowingly misrepresent their cost and pricing data or otherwise violate their legal obligations when negotiating or performing contracts with the United States.”
“International corruption in military and defense sales is a violation of our national security laws as well as an anti-bribery offense,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division. “Raytheon willfully failed to disclose bribes made in connection with contracts that required export licenses. Today’s resolution should serve as a stark warning to companies that violate the law when selling sensitive military technology overseas.” (Note: Yeah, right.)
Opinion | Dublin’s storied pubs this week were buzzing with salacious gossip about a politician compromised by a Russian honeytrap.
— Read on www.themoscowtimes.com/
excerpts.
Russian intelligence used a strikingly beautiful female agent to recruit the politician, codenamed Cobalt, as an agent aiming to – among other things – undermine relations between Britain, Ireland and the EU during Brexit negotiations.
Cathal Berry, a former army chief who now sits in the Dail’s backbenches, claimed Ireland is “a playground” for Russian spies due to its extensive assets and lackadaisical security culture.
As part of a grand Western coalition that has imposed an unprecedented number of sanctions against Russia and its elites, Moscow considers Ireland and the rest of the EU to be legitimate targets. Trying to compromise local politicians and MEPs and undermine democratic institutions is an attempt to instill chaos, sowing disharmony and twisting public opinion for the Kremlin’s benefit.
MI5 Director General Ken McCallumwarnedthat Russia is increasingly using low-level criminals to commit arson, sabotage, and attack dissidents with the aim of sowing chaos across Europe. Moscow is ramping up cyberattacks and reliance on criminal proxies after its spy network was largely dismantled by the expulsion of 750 Russian diplomats following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ireland’s healthcare system was hit by a Russian ransomware cyber-attack in 2021 that so far cost 100 million euros ($109 million) and has caused thousands of people to suffer the impact of delayed care. That figure is expected to increase to well over 600 million ($655.7 million).
In the month before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ireland had to depend on a band ofhardy fishermento deter Russia from holding a massive naval exercise in its exclusive economic zone.
Sleeper spies have also been active in Ireland. Last year, Sergei Cherkasov was caught by Dutch security forces trying to get an internship at the International Criminal Court in the Hague. Cherkasov, under the Brazilian alias Viktor Muller Ferriera, graduated with a first-class degree in political science from Trinity College Dublin in late 2018.
“Illegal” spies operating without diplomatic cover, a cornerstone of Soviet-era espionage, remain a key weapon in Moscow’s arsenal against the West. Putin, himself a former KGB officer and later head of the FSB, has revived and expanded this campaign of disinformation, subversion, and intimidation.
Cobalt was not the first Western politician to fall for a honeytrap and he certainly will not be the last. Femme fatales have long been a hallmark of Russian espionage, and no one has perfected the honey trap quite like the Russians. As the former KGB General Oleg Kalugin once quipped,theSoviet intelligence agency did not ask Russian women to stand up for their country but “asked them to lay down.”
With that in mind, my advice to any middle-aged Irish politician is simple. If a Slavic beauty comes bearing gifts, take off your beer goggles and make a beeline for the nearest exit.
Opinion | On Feb. 20, at a forum in Moscow Irene Cecchini – an Italian final-year student at Moscow State Institute of International Relations – urged President Vladimir Putin to streamline “impatriation” for like-minded foreigners.
— Read on www.themoscowtimes.com/
Law, Power, and Justice 