apple.news/Abc7mZEslT3mau0Pr0T8aaw
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Masha Gessen writes about the various takeaways from the TV personality Tucker Carlson’s face-to-face interview with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow this week.
Best quote of week: masha geeson about Putin.
This is what a tyrant looks like: small, and full of tedious resentments.
— Read on www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/tucker-carlson-promised-an-unedited-putin-the-result-was-boring
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In the hearing of the Colorado case earlier this month, Chief Justice John Roberts cast aside the pretense of the conservative doctrines of originalism and textualism on which the supreme court has eviscerated voting rights, gun control and abortion rights. He retreated into a political hypothetical that if the court ruled in Colorado’s favor Biden might be subject to attempts to remove him from the ballot as an insurrectionist.
Roberts prattled, “… maybe they’ve got a stack of papers saying here’s why I think this person is guilty of insurrection, it’s not a big insurrection, something that, you know, happened down – down the street, but they say this is still an insurrection … I don’t know what the standard is for when it arises to that.”
Led by Roberts, the justices refused to define an insurrection, which was the heart of the Colorado supreme court’s ruling. Roberts’ hypothetical, besides tossing overboard originalism, was more than supercilious punditry. Perhaps his scenario was based on his familiarity with the tactics of the right wing.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/us-supreme-court-trump-election-sidney-blumenthal
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WEDNESDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2024
News Notes: Israel: NYT
- Gazans are fleeing a major hospital in the Gaza Strip (Khan Younis) after Israelis ordered them to leave. The forces threatened military action to stop what it said was Hamas activity at the hospital.
- Israeli finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, (a hard-right settler leader)
- said he had issued a directive not to transfer flour shipments to UNRWA.
- Negotiations in Cairo are still going on.
- Israelis continue to warn (although some think this is saber rattling by Netanyahu) about a ground advance into Rafah.
- The New York Times has a section “Roots of the Conflict” that details the agreements and declarations in 1948 and after.
News Notes: Israel: Hareetz
- Hostage families slam Netanyahu for staying away from Cairo talks.
- Macron tells Netanyahu of his opposition to a possible Israeli offensive in Rafah
- Netanyahu says there is no new “hamas proposal” on hostages and orders delegation not to return to Cairo.
- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on Hamas to speedily reach an agreement over hostages for prisoners to avoid a further “catastrophe.”
- Abbas met on Monday with the Emir of Qatar to discuss post-war Gaza.
- Mossad head David Barnea was with the Israeli delegation participating in talks on Tuesday.
- Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, was also in Cairo.
- A wave of thefts of off-road vehicles in Israel is leading authorities to suspect a fresh attack on Israelis. This type of vehicle was used in the October 7 attack.
- Opinion, Netta Ahituv. “No Israeli will ever feel safe in their land if all the hostages don’t return.”
- One of the hostages who was released said: “If the hostages aren’t returned, every mother and father will know that…the state is not committed to their security.”
- There appear to be “deliberate moves” by the government to remove this issue from the public agenda (author)
News Notes: Ukraine: Moscow Times
- Ukraine has evidently hit another large Russian ship.
- Inflation in Russia is being pushed higher by “soaring government spending on the military offensive.”
- Putin has signed a law allowing the confiscation of assets of individuals convicted under the new wartime censorship laws.”
Ukraine: Euromaidan Press
- Netherlands joins coalition o boost Ukraine’s drone capabilities.
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The Israeli army announced it was moving up draft dates for pre-army preparatory students amid the Israel-Hamas war – but has not moved up the draft for any ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students
The bill is not without controversy; many members of the coalition, including the National Unity party, have expressed their discontent with the bill, which would raise the burden on those who currently serve in the army and make no changes to the Ultra-Orthodox public’s exemptions from mandatory service. Despite this, they are expected to fast-track the legislation, bringing it to a vote in the coming weeks.
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Monday 12 February 2024
News Notes: Russia/Ukraine
- Slava Ukraini
- Boris Nadezhdis is a pro-peace presidential candidate in Russia. Election officials barred him from running. He has asked Russia’s Supreme Court challenging the decision.
News Notes: Israel
- Israeli strikes in Rafah. Two hostages freed.
- A court in the Netherlands ordered the Dutch government to stop exporting parts for a fighter jet to Israel.
- The IDF confirms an attack on a vehicle in southern Lebanon which killed Hezbollah operatives. In addition, Hezbollah military buildings and terrorist infrastructure were attacked in Lebanon.
- The US says it won’t support an Israeli raid on Rafah without a plan for displaced Palestinians.
- Smotrich says that there is a “joint American, British and Arab effort to establish a terrorist state” next to Israel.
- Israeli sources say it is still not known whether released hostages received the medication that was part of a deal between Israel and Hamas last month.
- Netanyahu complained to Biden about the sanctions against four Israeli settlers. (Note: Most of them are young men, unlikely to have substantial assets which will be affected. Seems a lot of show and nothing more).
- U.K. sanctions four Israeli settlers.
- The chief prosecutor of the ICC warned Israel that they may be faced with war crimes charges if they go ahead with the ground invasion of Gaza. (Telegraph)
- The Iranian foreign minister warned that a ground invasion in Gaza could result in “severe consequences.”
Shemer, Nesya (2/12/24) How Hamas Betrays Islam, Haaretz.
- Hamas is “currently attempting to rewrite the atrocities it committed on October 7 so that they comply with ‘Islamic values.’”
- This cannot hide their “violations of core Islamic laws of war.”
- A recent memo issued by Hamas claims that they did not harm civilians on October 7. This is despite the atrocity-filled attack they filmed themselves.
- The memo said: “the Palestinian resistance was fully disciplined and committed to the Islamic values during the operation…”
- The most fundamental principle of Islamic war is a “prohibition against harming the elderly, children, women and workers…”
- The images Hamas itself posted online were so gruesome they started blurring the images.
- According to Islamic law, rape of women is forbidden, even in wartime.
News Notes: Trump, Capitalism and the Decline of Democracy
- Trump is funding his legal expenses through a PAC.
- The Trump appeal to the Supreme Court, the U.S. Supreme Court, starts with a sentence quoting Yogi Barra. Just think about that.
- https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24424105-trump-stay-petition-to-scotus
Book:
Christie-Miller, Alexander () To the City: Life and Death Along the Ancient Walls of Istanbul. William Collins.
- When Christie-Miller first went to Turkey as a journalist, people were still giving Erdogan a lot of credit for developing a civilized society.
- The wall now marks not the limits of the city, but it’s center.
- He tells the story of people living around the ancient walls of Istanbul.
- Drug problems in Istanbul.
Personal Notes
- I truly don’t know whether I can make it through the next few months until November. I am filled with anxiety and dread. We keep talking about where to move. With nine cats. People don’t realize how this authoritarian state is going to affect their lives. People are going to be walking around saying: “They can’t do that.” But they can. You gave them the right to. I am scared.
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Saturday 10 February 2024
News Notes
Israel
Podcast: Times of Israel (2/10/24)
- Israel’s credit rating has been downgraded. (Note:
- Biden has made a statement about Israel’s response in Gaza has been “over the top.” The question is why Biden decided to say this at this time.
- Ground operations are looming in Rafah.
- Two-state solution. (Note:
- Rep. Chris Van Holland commented on a memorandum that was issued about US aid being used to kill civilians or in human rights abuses. This is not really a new condition. What is new is that the countries have to give assurances. This could be a symbolic bone being thrown to Progressives to pacify them.
- This may become an issue not so much in Gaza, but in operations in the West Bank.
- Saudi and Egypt warned Israel about pushing Palestinians south in a ground operation near Rafah.
- Israel has asked Palestinians to move south. They have done so. Rafah in right on the Egyptian border. Where are they to go?
- If people move north, it’s not clear what they will be going back to, and also Israel fears that Hamas will be moving back north with them to retake areas that Israel has already cleared.
- Egypt does not want the Palestinians to come over the border. They have warned Israel about the peace treaty that involves that border.
- If there is a ground incursion, avoiding civilian deaths will not be possible. Deaths of Israeli military will also be high.
- There are still Hamas battalions in the Rafah area that need to be dismantled.
- UNRWA
- The US state department is looking at funding another agency because funds no longer can be given to UNWRA.
- UNWRA has 13,000 workers on the ground. No other agency comes close to UNWRA’s capacity. Salaries at UNWRA are cheaper than at other agencies. To switch would be more expensive. Who is going to staff this agency? People are not lining up to take jobs in Gaza.
- There is nobody else to do UNWRA’s work. This is not a viable option.
- Netanyahu and his government do want to get rid of UNWRA.
- UNWRA operates anywhere there are Palestinian refugees – Lebanon, Syria, Jordan. It is specifically for “card-carrying refugees.”
- The West Bank economy is “in a shambles.” Israel has stopped transferring tax money to pay PA salaries of government workers. Workers have been banned from going back into Israel from the West Bank for security concerns. New check points have limited movement and economic activity.
- There is concern that the West Bank is a “powder keg.” (Note: I have heard this said for weeks.)
- There seems to be some flexibility on the transfer of payments for salaries, but even after decisions, this takes a long time to be implemented.
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At a time when many reservists have already spent four months in uniform since the war in Gaza began, Israel’s ultra-Orthodox and secular communities are heading for a clash over who must serve in the Israel Defense Forces. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is already trying to muster his troops
tens of thousands of Haredi yeshiva students remain exempt from the draft, even though the High Court of Justice has ruled that this exemption is unconstitutional as it discriminates against those who do serve.
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New
More than half of Gaza’s population is squeezedinto miserable tent cities in Rafah, a small city along Egypt’s border, left with nowhere else to go by Israel’s military campaign. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has threatened to overrun the area, and on Friday, he directed his forces to plan the evacuation of civilians from Rafah to clear the way for a new offensive against Hamas. But it is not clear where those people could go.During past conflicts in the region, Egypt has taken in refugees from Syria, Yemen and neighboring Sudan. But in this war, it has reacted very differently to the plight of its Arab neighbors, spurred by a mix of alarm over its own security and fear that the displacement could become permanent and undermine Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
Egyptian leaders are also wary of the Islamist Hamas stoking militancy and spreading influence in their country, as Egypt has spent years trying to quash Islamists and an insurgency at home.
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The renewed reemergence and rekindling of the concept of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement resulting in the formation of a Palestinian state in most of the West Bank and Gaza is completely artificial and nothing more than grand posturing and a rhetorical hot potato untethered from political realities. A two-state solution may very well be the best possible and durable solution, certainly preferable to a one binational state or the untenable status quo, but we are far from it.
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News Notes
Monday 5 February 2024
Look Who’s Talking: The Duran Podcast
I first noticed this podcast because it was about Ukraine. After listening, though, I heard one of the commentators making fun of Zelensky. When I did some research, I found out that the British guy (with the most obnoxious upper-class accent in the British world) formerly worked for RT and has been disbarred.
Steve Bannon and Russian Religious Connection
Podcast: Thinking Allowed, Traditionalism – Russian Orthodox Converts, BBC Radio. 1/31/24.
Books: Mark Galeotti, British historian on transnational crime and Russian security.
Podcast: In Moscow’s Shadows
Books:
Thomas Graham, Getting Russia Right
Richard Sakwa, The Lost Peace
Leon Aron, Riding the Tiger
Maria Popova and Oxana Sheval, Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories
Willian Collins, The Showman
Andrew Harding, A Small, Stubborn Town.
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Sunday 4 February 2024
News Notes: Podcast
Middle East Focus, A Middle East Institute Podcast (2/4/24)
Interview of Charles Lister, Director of MEI’s Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs
- The Islamic State is regaining momentum in Syria.
- Jordan drone attack by Iran based milia. This is what analysts have worried about. It is a “game changer.”
- An “explosive drone” essentially followed an American drone that was landing near the base. It evaded US defenses. US defense systems have “friend or foe” detection capabilities. It should have been able to detect a separate aircraft and also know that it was not a friend.
- The US has a close military relationship with Jordan. They are spread in part across the Jordanian border with Syria. It is one of a string of towers. Some are staffed by Jordanians, others by Americans.
- 22 is a particularly sensitive tower. Northeast corner of Jordan. This is a sensitive area bordering Syria and Iraq. This is an area where Iran has funneled in weapons and logistics from Iraq to Syria. Also, there has been regime sponsored drug smuggling going through that region. And, there is ISIS in that region on the Syrian side of the border.
- It is near a much more expansive US military facility on the Syrian side of the border. It has been there for many years.
- There have been over 180 Iranian proxy rocket and drone attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria since October 18. In one hundred days, we have had almost 200 attacks. This is unprecedented.
- The trigger was Israel’s operation against Hamas in Gaza. This has triggered a “region-wide” campaign by Iran’s network of proxy actors. The goal is to bring about a cease fire, but all the actions are also probably intended to push the US out of the Middle East. Not particularly convinced that a cease fire in Gaza would put a stop to it.
- The group, Kataib Hezbollah, has been around since 2000 after the US invasion of Iraq. The invasion is talked about to have provoked a Sunni reaction, led by Al Qaeda in Iraq. It also triggered Iran backed proxies. This is one of the first factions mobilized by the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp with the express purpose of targeting American military and pushing them out of Iraq.
- These proxies have become de facto political groups in Iraq. They have associated MPs in Parliament. They are integrated within the Iraqi security forces. They have been both military and political actors.
- These groups are putting pressure on the government to get the US out of Iraq. Talks began in the last few days regarding this.
- The Biden Administration has come to the conclusion that we must get out of Syria and that plans for the future must include a way to withdraw in an orderly fashion. But, right now, the US is the only glue holding an effort against ISIS in Syria together.
- The US has a relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This relationship was founded by Brett McGurk, National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East. There would have to be an agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF.
- Syrian regime has a terrible record against ISIS. Other governments have made their peace with Assad.
- We must heal our relationship with Turkey.
- We are talking about a favorable resolution of the issue.
- Tensions between Turky and the SDF.
- ISIS is holding territory in Syria. Iraq (and Kurds) have pushed back on ISIS on Iraqi soil.
- ISIS has invested more in Syria.
- The regime doesn’t have the military and surveillance capabilities to deal with a desert ISIS movement. They are threatening oil and gas facilities. US cannot operate in regime held territories.
- Our presence in the northeast is more important than ever. We help keep them from spilling over into Iraq.
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Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans that they should prepare for decades of confrontation with Russia — and that they must speedily rebuild the country’s military in case Vladimir V. Putin does not plan to stop at the border with Ukraine.
Russia’s military, he has said in a series of recent interviews with German news media, is fully occupied with Ukraine. But if there is a truce, and Mr. Putin, Russia’s president, has a few years to reset, he thinks the Russian leader will consider testing NATO’s unity.
“Nobody knows how or whether this will last,” Mr. Pistorius said of the current war, arguing for a rapid buildup in the size of the German military and a restocking of its arsenal.
