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On Monday, Mr Scholz warned EU member states they were not sending enough military aid to Kyiv in a thinly veiled swipe at Mr Macron, whose support lags far behind Berlin’s.
The Franco-German “engine” has long been the EU’s most influential relationship when it comes to policy-making in Brussels.
Diplomats fear the strained relationship may stymie Berlin’s progress in convincing Paris to back the expansion of a French-led EU anti-piracy mission in the Straits of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
One EU diplomat said: “The relationship isn’t really working at the moment. The Germans think the French are not doing enough on Ukraine, despite talking a big game, and they are right.”
The European Union is under pressure to respond to the Iran-backed rebels’ threat to commercial shipping after the US and UK air strikes on Thursday night.
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Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and Shi’ite militia groups in Iraq have managed to rack up achievements in their battles at home – and they don’t intend to stop once the war in Gaza ends
Following the assassination of two high-ranking figures – senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in early January, a day after he arrived in Beirut from Qatar, and Wissam al-Tawil, commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force – Hezbollah has significantly expanded its counterintelligence operations. It understands that its ranks have been dangerously penetrated by Israeli intelligence.
those two assassinations, one right after the other, made it clear that its current methods and sophisticated technological equipment – which was supposed to disrupt the surveillance and eavesdropping carried out via Israeli drones, satellites and other means – were insufficient.
The organization has also been assailed in the Lebanese media over the fact that it is no longer secure: that its leaders can’t protect its members and that Israel is seemingly winning the intelligence war.
In the past, it was hard to find articles in the Lebanese media that ever reported, much less criticized, Hezbollah’s intelligence network. But the last two weeks have seen articles with headlines such as “What intelligence penetration facilitated Al-Arouri’s assassination?” on the Asas Media website; “Hezbollah is addressing security holes that enabled strikes on several of its officers” on the Al Modon website; and “Israel’s intelligence war, which tries to hunt Hezbollah commanders” on the Janoubia website.
Lebanon has two parties responsible for managing the war: one is the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army; the other is Hezbollah. And they aren’t coordinated, either in their methods or their goals.
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The United States-led airstrikes on Thursday and Friday against sites in Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia damaged or destroyed about 90 percent of the targets struck, but the group retained about three-quarters of its ability to fire missiles and drones at ships transiting the Red Sea, two U.S. officials said on Saturday.
www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/us/politics/houthis-yemen-us-airstrikes.html
The United States-led airstrikes on Thursday and Friday against sites in Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia damaged or destroyed about 90 percent of the targets struck, but the group retained about three-quarters of its ability to fire missiles and drones at ships transiting the Red Sea, two U.S. officials said on Saturday.
Finding Houthi targets is proving to be more challenging than anticipated. American and other Western intelligence agencies have not spent significant time or resources in recent years collecting data on the location of Houthi air defenses, command hubs, munitions depots and storage and production facilities for drones and missiles, the officials said. (Note: what the f are they doing?)
The twin specters of a widening regional war and intensified suffering of civilians loomed over the Middle East on Saturday, after the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen threatened to respond to American airstrikes and a senior U.N. official warned that the humanitarian crisis in Gaza was hurtling toward famine.
Yemeni analysts say the crisis also presents the Houthis with a welcome distractionfrom rising criticism at home
Some 21 million Yemenis, or two-thirds of the population, rely on aid to survive, in what the United Nations has called one of the world’s worst humanitarian calamities — a dubious distinction now shared by Gaza. (Aid from where?)
Qatar is mediating talks over a proposal for Israel to allow more medicines into Gaza in exchange for prescription medicines being sent to Israeli hostages held by Hamas, officials have said.
Famine experts say the proportion of Gaza residents at risk of famine is greater than anywhere since a United Nations-affiliated body began measuring extreme hunger 20 years ago. Scholars say it has been generations since the world has seen food deprivation on such a scale in war.
The arrival of bitterly cold winter weather has exacerbated the struggle to survive, Mr. Griffiths said. Much of Gaza’s population has jammed into overcrowded, deteriorating shelters in the south, with limited access to clean water and where aid workers warn that disease is spreading fast.
Large protests calling for an end to the Israeli assault on Gaza, tied to the 100th day of the war, were expected across the globe on Saturday in cities including London, Dublin, Washington, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.
Since 2014 the Houthis have endured heavy bombardment by Saudi warplanes armed by the United States, only to emerge as the de facto government in northern Yemen.
A confrontation with the United States strengthens the Houthis’ ties to Iran, plays to popular sympathies with Palestinians and could help to quell dissent, experts say: As a shaky peace has taken root in Yemen in the past 18 months, their economic failures have become more evident, and internal opposition has grown.
“War is good for the Houthis right now,” said Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
The C.I.A. is collecting information on senior Hamas leaders and the location of hostages in Gaza, and is providing that intelligence to Israel as it carries out its war in the enclave, according to U.S. officials.
It is not clear how valuable the information has been to Israel, though none of the most senior leaders of Hamas has been captured or killed. The United States is not providing Israel with intelligence on low or midlevel Hamas operatives.
Israel had estimated before Oct. 7 that Hamas had 20,000 to 25,000 fighters. By the end of 2023, Israel had told American officials they believed they had killed roughly a third of that force.
Some American officials believe targeting low-level Hamas members is misguided because they can be easily replaced and because of the unwarranted risk to civilians. They have also said the Israeli military bombing campaign in Gaza — which according to Gaza’s Health Ministry has killed some 23,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians — could end up replenishing Hamas’s bench of fighters.
Targeting Mr. Sinwar is not simply a matter of finding him. Mr. Sinwar is believed to be hiding in the deepest part of the tunnel network under Khan Younis in southern Gaza, according to U.S. officials. But he is also believed to be surrounded by hostages and using them as human shields, vastly complicating a military operation to capture or kill him.
In 2022, Israel collected intelligence that showed Hamas had developed an elaborate plan for a multiwave attack on Israel, code named Jericho Wall. But the information was not shared widely within Israel or with the United States after some Israeli intelligence officials assessed that the plan was aspirational and that Hamas did not have the capability of carrying it out at the time.
Locating the hostages, and developing information about their physical and mental conditions, is also a priority of the new task force. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, has been working with David Barnea, the chief of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, to negotiate their release.
In November, 109 hostages were released in return for Palestinian prisoners and a pause in the fighting thanks to U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediation. About 130 hostages are believed to remain in captivity in Gaza. The United States and Israel are hoping for another exchange, but Hamas has insisted that any further hostage releases only
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excerpts:
Khamenei knows how unpopular his regime is and that its regional adventures have very little domestic support. Western sanctions have severely degraded the Iranian economy, destroying the country’s middle class. Life is much worse in Iran today than it was, say, 20 years ago, in just about every imaginable way. Things are also rough in the countries where axis forces hold sway: Syria is split up, Lebanon is bankrupt, Iraq faces its own domestic crises, and Yemen is desperately poor. These are not exactly the forces you can take to a war with the West.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have gained some support among the Arab masses and beyond—even though those actually targeted are not Israelis but international maritime merchants. The militia initially said that it was targeting ships going to Israel but has, in practice, fired indiscriminately at commercial ships, even those with no ties to Israel. On December 30, it attacked Maersk Hangzhou, a Danish-owned and Singapore-flagged commercial container. The attacks have already had a terrible effect, leading Maersk and several other international shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea and take South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope route, which is at least a week longer and much more expensive.
Russia and China, on Wednesday, refused to veto the Security Council resolution that paved the way for the attacks on Yemen. A day before the vote, Iran’s top diplomat, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, complained to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov about the resolution, which the U.S. and Japan had jointly submitted. Yet neither Moscow nor Beijing came to Tehran’s rescue by vetoing the resolution. Instead they abstained, alongside Algeria and Mozambique.
The Houthis have a tradition of fierce independence, despite the militia’s overall reliance on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its professed loyalty to Khamenei as the ultimate leader of the resistance. As a result, Tehran may be faced with a tough question: How much pressure is it willing to put on the Houthis to get them to stand down?
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Bahrainis took to the streets on Friday to protest their country’s involvement in the military coalition that struck the Houthis, according to Bahraini activists who shared pictures of the demonstrations. Amid popular anger over its participation in the coalition, the Bahraini government has not independently acknowledged its role, but was named in the joint statement announcing the strike.
Scholars who study the Houthis warned that the strikes were highly unlikely to deter the militia, which has welcomed the prospect of a confrontation with the United States with open delight. “They hope to see an expanded regional war and they are eager to be on the frontlines,” said Hannah Porter, a senior research officer on Yemen at ARK Group, a U.K. firm that works in international development.
Military strikes on the Houthis had sent a “very clear message” that Britain and the United States would act to keep shipping lanes open, demonstrating that “if warnings aren’t heeded, consequences follow,” Britain’s foreign secretary, David Cameron, told NBC.
Yemen’s internationally recognized government — ousted from the Yemeni capital by the Houthis in 2014 — said that the only way to protect Red Sea security is by restoring Yemen’s “legitimate state institutions.” The government said in a statement that it holds the Houthis responsible for “dragging the country into a military confrontation.” But it also blamed the international community for policies that it said had “contributed to the survival and strengthening” of the militia.
The Treasury Department announced on Friday that it is imposing sanctions on two companies based in Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates that it said were involved in sales of commodities that fund the Houthis and support their attacks in the Red Sea. “The United States continues to take action against the illicit Iranian financial networks that fund the Houthis and facilitate their attacks,” said Brian E. Nelson, Treasury’s under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.Huge crowds have gathered in cities across Yemen to protest the U.S.-led strikes and demonstrate solidarity with the Palestinian people, according to the official Yemen news agency. People have packed into Al-Sabeen Square in the capital, Sana, and there were marches in the Saada and Hajjah governates, the news agency, Saba, reported.
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The Iranian-backed militia and its allies condemned air and naval attacks led by the United States, an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. President Biden said he “will not hesitate” to act further if the Houthis continue targeting Red Sea shipping. Nyt
After the United States and others launched air and naval strikes against more than a dozen targets linked to the Houthi militia, even some American allies in the Arab world worried that the attacks would not deter the Houthis, but could further inflame a region seething over Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Oman, a U.S. ally that has mediated talks with the Houthis, criticized the strikes and expressed its “deep concern.” Nyt
British warplanes joined the strikes, and the Netherlands, Australia, Canada and Bahrain provided logistics, intelligence and other support, according to U.S. officials. Nut
The U.S.-led strikes in Yemen hit radars, missile- and drone-launch sites, and weapons storage areas, according to two American officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Biden administration officials said the strikes were intended to hinder the Houthis’ ability to strike Red Sea targets, rather than to kill leaders and Iranian trainers, which could be viewed as more escalatory. A Houthi spokesman said at least five of its fighters were killed.
No further strikes against Houthi targets are currently planned but the situation will be kept under review, the British prime minister’s office said. British warplanes joined in the strikes in Yemen led by the United States.
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Friday 12 January 2024
News Notes:
The Inside Story Podcast (1/6/24)
Interview with Ofer Cassif, Member of Knesset, Gideon Levy, Columnist for Haaretz, and Daniel Levy, President of the US Middle East Project
Israeli government fight over proposed military report assessing the events of Oct 7.
Ofer Cassif:
- The debate within the cabinet is not the main issue. The first thing that should be done is end the war. First, the death toll if excessive. Second, the death toll of the soldiers, and third the risks to the hostages. This war should not have begun in the first place.
- “Unfortunately, this government consists of bigots who do not care about the lives, let alone of Palestinians, but not even Israeli soldiers or hostages. They are just interested in revenge and hatred. That is the main thing that drives them.
Gideon Levy
- “…the politicians, as usual, are breaking away from any responsibility…historical fiasco on the 7th, and the politicians are doing everything possible to put the blame only on the army…”
- The main issue is continuing the war, but Israel is behind ending the war at any price.
- At the end of the day it’s who will be held responsible for all the fiascos. The politicians already started in the middle of the war without any shame.
Daniel Levy
- The fault line is between those who say “…eradication, let’s have a second Nakva, let’s remove everyone and those who say this is working we have a very good apartheid system in place…occasionally we say to the world we’re ready to do something, but….
- Even when the opposition proposes a separate state, it’s not actually a separate state “a Bantustan homeland” in apartheid system than actual Palestinian freedom…”
- You do not have any party that stands up for Palestinian rights, international law…”
- “…Netanyahu clearly doesn’t want this war to end…”
Ofer Cassif
- Netanyahu “pulls the strings” but he wants us to think he doesn’t. “Netanyahu is not interested in ending the war because he knows that once the war is over there are two alternatives. Either to begin another war, which it seems he’s interested to do in the North, or he’s going to pay the price for the fiasco and the responsibility he bears with his government for the…massacre that occurred.” “He does pull the strings” but he wants to manipulate the public and the international community and to pretend that he is a “hostage” of the larger bigots. He “manipulates and maneuvers the Israeli public and the international public to get what he personally wants.”
- There are differences of interest between Netanyahu and the “fanatics of the so-called religious Zionism.” There are differences in intension, but not in practice. They think the same and do the same.
Gideon Levy
- Question: Former Defense Minister was mentioned, is it the mention of his name that upset the ultra-orthodox said we don’t want mentioned.
- No, they are trying to postpone any investigation.
- There is almost “no one who is clean from any point of view.”
- This is a military investigation, and it is not the investigation that Israel deserves. They need an independent external investigation by judges not generals, but this might still come.
Daniel Levy
- Question: Netanyahu is not on good terms with the military establishment. The military establishment says that Netanyahu doesn’t have a clear plan for how to move forward. Who do you blame for this vague environment.
- “This remarkable violent destructive campaign….the key thing here is the level of consensus.”
- The Israeli military was wounded and is happy to pursue this campaign. You also have a military that increasingly reflects the society.
- The national religious settler community is very much integrated, part of the settler class. We see the images that are coming out.”
- Change is unlikely to be generated inside the Israeli system. It will require some external vector. And the ability for this horrendous killing, and the humanitarian consequences, starvation, disease. To stop that we need to be cost and consequence.
- But up until now that hasn’t happened. The US has provided Israel with weapons and political cover.
- We have to look at what South Africa has initiated in the International Criminal court. Not that this can stop the war, but it can generate pressure. “As long as Israel is treated with impunity, it will do its worst.”
Ofer Cassif:
- “We do need international pressure, that’s for sure.”
- There must be external and internal pressure. We go out to the street to demonstrate against the war. But without international pressure, and with the support of the Biden administration, we can’t stop it.
- “terrible war crimes…the death toll especially of children and the elderly.”
- The South African case is based on things that the members of the Knesset and members of the coalition actually said.
- Things like elimination, destruction. We cannot ignore that. “I am in shock” that probably most Israelis support such policies and such language. And I am in disgust with an international community that does not do anything. It is in the interest of the Israelis so stop this killing. The interest of our society is “to be moral.”
Gideon Levy
- Question: The South African complaint is going directly to genocide. Could this be a decisive moment even though it will take time.
- “It is a beginning.” It’s not like we have so many tools. “We are very limited.” “The support of this war us almost overall support. I never remember a war in Israel with so little resistance and so little critic…” The international community continues to “hug Israel.”
- This procedure will take years, but we should start it.
Daniel Levy
- “We see the absolute inadequacy not to say collapse of the international system.”
- I hope that people have given up the illusion that America is a friend here, that America stands up for something in a consistent fashion.
- “there’s no silver bullet” but it’s a “building block.”
- Israelis “will never be liberated from being oppressors if they carry on like that.”
Ofer Cassif
- I still supports a two state solution. For years we have been saying that “the occupation is going to explode.”
- The “only solution is the two-state solution.”
Gideon Levy
- No. That is a train that unfortunately has left the station. There is no room for a real Palestinian state with 700,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Jerusalem. We’d better “stop with this illusion.” It only works to maintain the occupation. We must change the narrative to equal rights. There are two alternatives – it’s either a democracy or an apartheid state.
Daniel Levy
- Israel rejected the two state solution.
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the State Department issued a $10 million reward for several Hamas-linked individuals across the Middle East.
One of these officials, a Hamas financier named Abdelbasit Hamza Elhassan Mohamed Khair (also known as Hamza), who is based in Sudan, was among the first individuals sanctioned by the United States in the days following the Hamas attack.
In addition to the funds Hamas receives from Iran and through small dollar donations, Hamas’s global portfolio of investments generates vast sums of illicit funds, estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, that span across jurisdictions,” the official noted.
According to close monitors of both Hamas and Al-Qaida, links between the two go back decades to the organizations’ respective nascent years in the early 1990s.
“Shortly after Hamas was founded, the group was invited to join an international coalition of jihadi groups that included Al-Qaida and Hezbollah. The coalition met regularly in Sudan, which was under the rule of Omar al-Bashir,” according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Senior Vice President Jonathan Schanzer.
Tensions between the organizations have risen over the decades, however, including with Osama bin Laden’s criticism of Hamas’ 2006 participation in democratic elections and formation of a unity government with Fatah.
“Bin Laden warned Hamas about the polytheistic nature of democracy, underscoring the ‘prohibition on joining polytheistic assemblies,’” wrote Cole Bunzel, a foreign affairs fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.
Al-Qaida has also offered cautious criticism of Hamas’ failure to fully implement Sharia law in Gaza, reflecting the internal conflict within Hamas over the past some 15 years: to focus on its role as a governing body or prioritize its stated goal of destroying Israel.
Beyond this, Al-Qaida and Hamas differ in their respective global orientations. While Hamas is by definition dedicated to Israel’s destruction, Al-Qaida supports this as one element of its larger objectives.
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On the eve of the genocide hearing against Israel at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come out publicly for the first time against his far-right allies who have been calling for Israel to recapture the Gaza Strip, encourage the transfer of the civilian population and reestablish Israeli settlements.
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Ukraine is inflicting “significant losses” on Russian forces attacking its bridgehead over the Dnipro river.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, said Russia’s attempts to push Ukrainian soldiers back over the river are failing because of “persistent command and communication problems” that are causing large numbers of casualties.
It cited multiple reports from Russian bloggers claiming that air defence units have to wait for permission from their superiors to fire on Ukrainian drones, helicopters and aeroplanes, allowing the aircraft to strike their targets at will.
“Russian commanders also reportedly take several hours to approve artillery strikes and require units to send target coordinates and video or photo confirmation of targets before approving strikes,” the ISW added.
Ukrainian forces have therefore been able to maintain their positions in the face of repeated “heavy attritional attacks”, it said.
The vital bridgehead was first established by Ukrainian
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/10/ukraine-russia-war-live-nationalists-offensive-belgorod/
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The United Nations’ special representative on sexual violence in conflict has accepted Israel’s invitation to investigate allegations of sex crimes committed by Hamas on Oct. 7, a spokesman for Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday.
www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-sex-crimes.html
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Armed gunmen wearing masks stormed a television station in Ecuador’s largest city on Tuesday, taking anchors and staff hostage and exchanging gunfire with the police as cameras rolled before the intruders were subdued and arrested.
The televised violence, captured live, erupted in the city of Guayaquil as the South American country has descended into chaos this week, with a powerful gang leader disappearing from prison, uprisings breaking out in several prisons and inmates kidnapping and threatening guards.
www.nytimes.com/2024/01/09/world/americas/ecuador-gang-prison-emergency.html
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Law, Power, and Justice 