Law, Power, and Justice

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  • UKRAINE UPDATE: BIDEN’S UKRAINIAN REFUGEE POLICY IS A DISASTER

    WEDNESDAY 27 APRIL 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE 2: 7:30 PM

    THE NATION MAGAZINE: START MAKING SENSE

    Biden’s refugee policy for Ukrainians is a disgraceful story.  David Nassaw is interviewed.

    According to Nassaw, a history professor and writer abut displaced persons, Biden’s policy is “a disaster.”  He notes:

    • 5 million refugees have left Ukraine.  Many others have left their homes but are still in Ukraine.  We are talking about 10-12 million Ukrainians who are displaced. 
    • Poland, Moldava, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania are countries where they have gone.
    • EU’s 27 countries have expedited the refugee process.
    • Canada has agreed to admit an unlimited number of Ukrainian refugees.  The process is easy and they can get assistance to live and work.  There are no pathways to citizenship.
    • It took Biden a month to decide what to do.  At the end of March they decided to admit 100,000 Ukrainians who already had family members in the U.S. 
    • “disgraceful”
    • The people were required to go to the UN and be certified as refugees.  This perhaps takes six months.  After that you can begin the process to apply for asylum in U.S.  This process takes between two and ten years. 
    • You are told you should not apply for visas to travel to the US.  The process is a “frightening one.”  It is cumbersome.
    • You can fly to Mexico from anywhere in Europe without a visa.  With all the roadblocks, they are less than refugees from other parts of the world.
    • Ukrainians with money have established their own networks.  The easiest way is to fly to Mexico.  They then, come to the border. 
    • Trump used the Covid crisis to close the border.  But there are exceptions for Ukrainians.  The border is closed, but if you are Ukrainian, you are allowed in.  Everybody else is turned back.  They are allowed to stay until their court appearance.  There is no path to citizenship. 
    • There is no path to citizenship in any of the Biden plans.
    • Biden says he is going to close the Mexico route and establish another route.  This is a “disaster.”
    • No Ukrainian can apply under the new plan.  This sponsor has to be approved and apply for the Ukrainian.  The sponsor has to name a particular Ukrainian.  Then the Ukrainians have to have all kinds of screening.   It will take months if not years to go through this after they are sponsored.  Only let in for a two year period maximum.
    • They get “humanitarian parole” which was established for the Afghans.  It expires in two years and you have to get another set of permissions. 
    • In the past it was assumed that immigration was for citizenship, no longer.  It is a temporary status.
    • Why is Biden doing this?  He understands that the process of letting the Ukrainians in, highlights the racist nature of the immigration process.  The process is “disgraceful.”
    • The more advantages given to the Ukrainians the greater the disparity in the whole process will be public.
    • The right has power through the courts.  The Federalist Society and Trump and McConnell put in highly unqualified judges.  They are listening to the republican arguments.  Biden has not been able to undo the legacy of the Trump administration.  Rick Scott and others wrote early on a letter to HHS, don’t let in the Ukrainians because it’s the first step of an invasion. 
    • A delegation went to the border an said:  Ukraine is being invaded by Russia and we are being invaded by Ukrainians.
    • Democrats are afraid that the midterms will center on immigration.
    •  

    Notes: Fox News is non-stop pumping the danger of the people coming over the border.  They will make immigration an issue whatever Biden does about the Ukrainians.  The current policy has only alienated everybody.  So, once again, the Democrats because they are afraid, AFRAID, of alienating people who will never vote for them, refuse to provide programs that people who might vote for them will rally around.  The Democrats are hopeless.

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND THE AMERICAN RIGHT

    WEDNESDAY 27 APRIL 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE: 3:30 PM

    UKRAINE WORLD (@Ukraine_world) (Best twitter feed and podcast)

    • Ukrainian: “We have nowhere to return to…”
    • Ukrainian: “The Russian army robbed me of my husband, my daughter of her father, my parents of their son.”
    • Belarus’s lower house of Parliament approved a bill allowing security forces to use military equipment against civilians.
    • Poland announced that the country has become independent of Russia’s gas.
    • Ukrainian: “We have already changed the world.”

    KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • French government seizes three Russian oligarch’s villas.  The list includes Oleg Deripaska, Kirill Shamalov, and Musa azhaev.
    • Ukraine’s GDP may fall by 30-50%
    • Ukraine intelligence reports that Russians will give a propaganda press tour in Mariupol.
    • Putin threatens with “immediate strikes” countries that intervene in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
    • 80% of Kharkiv zoo animals evacuated to safety.
    • The Feldman Ecopark Zoo was home to 5,000 animals.  100 have been killed by Russian shelling as well as five employees who stayed behind to take care of the animals.
    • Zelensky is invited by Indonesia to attend the G20 summit.
    • Russia uses white phosphorus bombs again.
    • Gazprombank executive, Igor Volobeuv, leaves Russia to defend Ukraine.
    • Russian forces violently disperse crowds at pro-Ukrainian rally in Kherson.
    • Norway allocates $44 million to buy weapons for Ukraine.

    UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND THE AMERICAN RIGHT

    “Rand Paul parrots Russian propaganda, suggests Ukraine had it coming.” By Aaron Rupar, Substack.

    • Rand’s dad, Ron Paul, has long been an apologist for Putin.
    • Ron argued that Russia was not responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and that Putin had the right to invade neighboring countries.
    • Rand was evidently unbothered that the Trump campaign shared polling data with the Kremlin during the 2016 election.
    • Rand traveled to Russia in 2018 to meet with an official wo was under US sanctions for interfering with the 2016 election.  He took with him a hand written note from Trump to Putin.
    • He voted in 2017 to block NATO membership for Montenegro, which led John McCain to say that Rand was “now working for Vladimir Putin.”
    • In the Congressional session with Anthony Blinken, Paul parroted the Kremlin’s line.
    • Paul suggested that Biden had antagonized Putin by refusing to slam the door on Ukraine’s NATO ambitions.
    • Paul then said that the important thing was that Ukraine, Georgia, Modolva, were formerly part of the Soviet Union, and therefore part of Russia.
    • Anti-NATO sentiment if not a fringe view within the GOP.
    • Earlier in April, 30 percent of House Republicans voted against a symbolic resolution of support for NATO
    • Less than three years ago, Republicans sided with Russia while Trump was trying to disarm Ukraine.
    • John Bolton has said that he think Trump would have withdrawn from NATO had he gained a second term.
    • NATO support was one of the first things Trump’s campaign chair Paul Manafort excised from the Republican platform in 2016.  This was shortly before he was indicted for being an unregistered agent of Putin’s puppet government in Ukraine. (Note: I still have a vivid photographic image of the television screen when I heard Manafort had changed the language in the GOP’s party platform.)

    TWITTER:

    • BBC: Chinese drone firm pauses operations in Russia.
    • Olga Tokariuk: In Kherson, Russians have created a prison camp where 300 Ukrainian activists and war veterans are being held.

  • Rand Paul parrots Russian propaganda, suggests Ukraine had it coming

    Also: Tucker Carlson’s claim that Elon Musk “unshackled” his Twitter account is unadulterated BS.
    — Read on aaronrupar.substack.com/p/rand-paul-ukraine-putin-propaganda

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: They are trying to wipe us off the face of the earth

    TUESDAY 26 APRIL 2022

    UKRAINE UPDATE, 8 AM

    This is day 61 of the war on Ukraine.

    MSNBC

    • Kuleba: Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Every day is crucial for us.  Russia is concentrating their efforts in the Donbas.  That is the real battleground.  From Kharkiv to Mariupol.  How painful it is receiving messages from the steel plant in Mariupol.  People are dying because of lack of medicine.  “It’s ruthless.”  “Russian people share the responsibility for this war.”  They share responsibility with Putin for the rapes and the looting.  “The Russian people have to awake…”  “Russian war machine must be stopped.”  “We will pay the price for the safety of the world.”

    CNN

    • Clarissa Ward: When the rockets start falling the cell phone service disappears for a while.  There are equipment shortages.  “…seriously brave and resilient people…”
    • Lavrov: “The danger is serious and real.”  (Of nuclear war).
    • Austin says the U.S. wants Russia and Putin “weakened.”
    • Jim Sciutto: Austin’s words seemed to convey something more offensive than in the past.  Administration is saying no, it’s doesn’t.
    • Anchor: “It’s a shift, an important shift.”
    • The mayor of Mariupol is reporting that Russians are forcing local civilian to work mass graves for food.  Discovery of additional mass graves. 
    • The Americans want it to look like they are in lockstep with Ukraine. 
    •  

    NYT

    • Lavrov warned Ukraine’s allies not to underestimate the “very significant” risk of nuclear war.
    • Germany is sending radar-equipped heavy tanks specially designed for air defense to Ukraine, a major policy reversal.
    • Two explosions have rattled Transnistria, a region of Moldova.  There were reports of explosions at a security agency building.  Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency claims that the explosions are a provocation intended to legitimate Russian military action there.
    • Kuleba is urging the establishment of an immediate ceasefire to evacuate people from Mariupol.
    • Kuleba is saying that the new Russian threats from Lavrov about nuclear war are an indication that “Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine.”
    • Lavrov accused NATO of creating a proxy war in Ukraine. 
    • There were explosions in Zaporizhzhia, a southern port city.  Ukrainians are anticipating an attack.
    • Russians have seized the City Council building in Kherson.  The Russians are expected to stage a “referendum” to bolster the appearance of dominance in the region.
    • Russian forces have captured the eastern city of Kreminna as they try to advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
    • Fighter in Mariupol: “…they are trying to wipe us off the face of the earth.”

    UKRAINE WORLD (@Ukraine_world)

    • Yesterday, Russian forces carried out 35 strikes on the Azovstal plant.
    • There were at least 200 civilians abducted from Kyiv for “exchange fund.”  Freed hostages report beatings, torture, being forced to sign something with their eyes closed.
    • Russians again attacked residential regions of Kharkiv.
    • A corridor for evacuation was announced through loudspeakers by the Russians near Azovstal.  They then launched an artillery strike.
    • Reports of Russians taking women and threatening to kill their children if they don’t reveal military positions of Ukraine’s forces.
    • Reporting from Christo Grozev: The two most powerful AM transmitters in Europe were in Transnistria and Russia was using them to cover Ukraine with propaganda.  They were bombed with no casualties. 

    KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • It is impossible to restore electricity to a third of residents in Donetsk.
    • Poland sanctions Gazprom, Russian and Belarusian oligarchs. 

    EUROMAIDAN PRESS

    • Fires at Russian oil depots not far from the Ukraine border.
    • The goal of Russian forces at the moment seems to be to establish full control over the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk and to establish a land route with the occupied Crimea.
    • Russians are attacking railway junctions to prevent supplies from coming in.
    • They are using strategic bombers, ships and submarines to launch missiles and conduct bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure.
    • Russian forces seem to be trying to blockade Kharkiv.

  • Russo-Ukrainian war, day 62: Russian forces intensified activities in the East, resumed attacks against Azovstal plant | Euromaidan Press

    Heavy fighting in the East. Ukrainian army preparing defenses in Zaporizhzhia. US Secretary of Defense Austin: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”
    — Read on euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/26/russian-forces-intensified-activities-in-the-east-resumed-attacks-against-azovstal-plant/

  • Vicious Blame Game Erupts Among Putin’s Security Forces | CEPA

    The security institutions, the ‘siloviki’, that are key to propping up the regime are exchanging recriminations for a growing list of failures in the war on Ukraine.
    — Read on cepa.org/vicious-blame-game-erupts-among-putins-security-forces/

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: Security Services and Beseda

    MONDAY 25 APRIL 2022

    @cjjohns1951

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    CNN

    • Russians still refuse to provide a humanitarian corridor out of Mariupol.

    CEPA: Article: “Vicious blame game erupts among Putin’s security forces.” (4/25/22)

    • Recriminations are being exchanged over the failures in the war.
    • The military is evidently not happy with the scaled down plans which abandon the goal of taking the entire country of Ukraine and concentrating on the Donbas.
    • Fingers are being pointed especially at the FSB’s Foreign intelligence Branch, for misinforming Putin about the true conditions inside Ukraine that have led to failure.
    • Other branches of the FSB also blame the Foreign Intelligence Branch.
    • Immediately after the war started, journalists lost their sources.  While it was one thing to complain when the country was not at war, a war was different. 
    • This has radically changed.  Calls started to come in especially about reporting on Sergei Beseda, one of the heads of the Fifth Service of the FSB, which gathers political intelligence on Ukraine and cultivates the pro-Kremlin opposition in Kyiv. 
    • “The general was sent to the infamous Lefortovo prison in Moscow, which has had a horrible reputation since the Stalin purges – innumerable victims have been murdered in the building’s basement.”
    • “The Kremlin has made frantic efforts to hide the details of Beseda’s arrest” even going as far as the change his name in prison records.
    • Russia’s main investigative authority, the Investigative Committee, denied Beseda’s criminal prosecution.”
    • It was rumored that compromising material on Beseda was provided by a rival agency (the foreign intelligence service of the SVR).
    • This does now, however, mean that the military and intelligence services are opposed to the war, far from it.
    • They are opposed to scaling back the war as Putin is now evidently directing.
    • In short, “the military now demands all-out war.”
    • Those in the military feel that they are fighting with one hand tied behind their backs while NATO is fighting an all-out war.
    • A well-known blogger (and veteran of the National Guard) blogged in an open letter to Putin, “Are we fighting a war or masturbating.”  He demanded an escalation or ending the war.
    • There are various signs that the military wants more war rather than less.  (Note: The statement of army General Rustam Minnekaev about taking not only Southern Ukraine, but Transnistria).
    • It is thought that Sergei Shoigu has managed to keep criticism away from the military itself.  He is the Minister of Defense.
    • Members of the security services are even privately criticizing Putin.
    • This distance between Putin and the services is new and important.

  • NOTES ON “RUSSIAN WORLD” ideology.

    UKRAINE UPDATE: SUNDAY 24 APRIL 2022, 2PM

    “Russian World: The heresy driving Putin’s war.”  Article Euromaidan Press.

    •          The doctrine of Russian World is “an ideology that is theological at its core.”  It pits “Holy Russia” against the “godless West.”

    •          World-renowned theologians have condemned the Russia World as heresy.

    •          Cyril Hovorum, Stockhold School of Theology, interviewed by Euromaidan Press.

    •          The doctrine was developed under the auspices of the Russian Orthodox Church.

    •          This doctrine frames the war in Ukraine.

    •          Putin has supplied the guns and the church has supplied the ideas.

    •          The “core of the aggression is ideological: it’s a distorted theology..”

    •          The idea was developed by the Church and taken over by the Kremlin.

    •          Putin referenced ideas from this doctrine in the speech on the eve of the war.

    •          “It is a form of exceptionalism, nationalism.”  “a form of exceptionalism that means that belonging to a tribe makes you different and exceptional.”

    •          Russia is believed to have a special mission from God to save the world from itself.

    •          “That’s why it’s important to take into consideration religion when we try to understand this war.”

    •          The Russian belief is that the West has been corrupted by liberal ideas and values which are dangerous.  The “traditional values” they support are conservative and anti-liberal.

    • “that’s why we see these strange alliances like between the Kremlin and some white evangelicals in the USA.”
    • Many radical Muslims, especially supporters of Daesh in the Middle East, see Russia as fighting their common enemy, this global demon/shaitan of the West.” 
    • Unfortunately the average Russian believes this ideology.
    • “Putin has the support of the majority of the population regardless of his actions.”
    • The main part “in forming this ideology was played by the Church…:
    • “Patriarch Kiril (the leader of the Russian Orthodox church) is the author of this ideology.”
    • The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) wanted to attract people and fill a void that was left with the collapse of the Soviet Union. 
    • “The disappointment in the Communist ideology became complete…”
    • The Church saw this as an opportunity. 
    • “Instead of Christianizing the deideologized Russian population it led to ideologizing the Christian Church…””The Church has been ideologized ad putinized…”
    • “I believe the Russian World is a sort of idolatry.”
    •  

  • Russian World: the heresy driving Putin’s war | Euromaidan Press

    Russia’s war against Ukraine rests on doctrine of the Russian World, an ideology that is theological at its core, as it pits “Holy Russia” against the “godless West.”
    — Read on euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/18/russian-world-the-heresy-driving-putins-war/

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: RUSSIAN WORLD

    UKRAINE UPDATE:

    SUNDAY APRIL 24 2022, 4:30 pm

    TWITTER

    • Dean Obeidallah: Russia has opened a criminal case against Vladimir Kara-Murza, a pro-democracy advocate, for spreading “false information” about the war in Ukraine. 
    • Khodorkovsky: Kara-Murza is being held in pre-trial detention for two months.
    • Bill Browder:  Kara Murza was the “most effective advocate for Magnitsky sanctions of any individual in the world.”  Every “judge, prosecutor and police officer involved should be Magnitsky sanctioned.”

    Kara-Murza

    • “Kara-Murza is a Russian dissident- a writer, political activist, and spokesman for Russia’s beleaguered democrats. He was a close associate of Boris Nemtsov, the Russian opposition leader whom the regime murdered near the Kremlin in 2015. Twice Kara-Murza was poisoned by the regime, nearly killing him.”
    • Kara Murza is a politician, author and historian.
    • Served as deputy leader of the People’s Freedom Party.
    • He played a kay role in the adoption of targeted Magnitsky sanctions on Russian human rights violators.
    • He was poisoned in 2015 and 2017 and left in a coma.
    • Officers of Russia’s Federal Security Services were behind the poisonings.
    • He hosts a weekly show on Echo of Moscow Radio
    • Directed three documentary films, “They Chose Freedom, Nemtsov and My Duty to Not Stay Silent.”
    • https://www.magnitskyawards.com/bios/vladimir-kara-murza/?msclkid=873b0d35c35111ec926c94bcb3f040bf

    THE KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • Russian Orthodox Church helps relocated illegally deported Ukrainians.
    • An investigative report by Slidstvo.info says about 600,000 civilians were deported to Russia.
    • Russian forces fail to advance in Kharkiv.
    • About two dozen Russian ships and submarines remain in the Black Sea.
    • Rusian troops in the occupied areas of Kherson and Mykolayiv shell civilians to “discredit Ukraine.”  They are shelling under Ukrainian flags.
    • Helena Kennedy, UK human rights lawyer: “Russian troops have been given tacit permission to rape civilians during their invasion…”
    • Austria opposes Ukraine membership in EU.
    • Belgium blocks export of 8,000 luxury cars to Russia.
    • The Russian Defense Ministry reports that since the start of the invasion, Russia has deported 951,000 Ukrainians to Russia.  This includes 174,689 children.
    • West Virginia to send armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
    • Russia blocks economic data, hiding effect of sanctions.  They have stopped reporting data on government debt, trade statistics and oil production.
    • Russia has parked short-range ballistic missiles 60 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
    • Zelensky: Russia fired seven missiles at Odesa on April 23.  Two were intercepted.
    • On April 23, Russia’s Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of planning to use ammonia as a chemical weapon as part of a “provocation” at Odesa.  This is being interpreted as a threat to attack Odesa with chemical weapons.

    BNO NEWS

    • For the first time, a majority of Swedish citizens are in favor of joining NATO.
    • Estonia and Latvia adopt statements saying Russia is committing genocide against Ukraine.

    EUROMAIDAN PRESS

    • “Russian World: The heresy driving Putin’s war.”  Article Euromaidan Press.
    • The doctrine of Russian World is “an ideology that is theological at its core.”  It pits “Holy Russia” against the “godless West.”
    • World-renowned theologians have condemned the Russia World as heresy.
    • Cyril Hovorum, Stockhold School of Theology, interviewed by Euromaidan Press.
    • The doctrine was developed under the auspices of the Russian Orthodox Church.
    • This doctrine frames the war in Ukraine.
    • Putin has supplied the guns and the church has supplied the ideas.
    • The “core of the aggression is ideological: it’s a distorted theology..”
    • The idea was developed by the Church and taken over by the Kremlin.
    • Putin referenced ideas from this doctrine in the speech on the eve of the war.
    • “It is a form of exceptionalism, nationalism.”  “a form of exceptionalism that means that belonging to a tribe makes you different and exceptional.”
    • Russia is believed to have a special mission from God to save the world from itself.
    • “That’s why it’s important to take into consideration religion when we try to understand this war.”
    • The Russian belief is that the West has been corrupted by liberal ideas and values which are dangerous.  The “traditional values” they support are conservative and anti-liberal.

    CNN, 2:00 pm

    • Most people in Belarus do not want Belarus to participate in the war against Ukraine.

  • MACRON HAS WON

    With almost 60% of the vote, Macron has won the election and beaten the far right Putin buddy Marine Le Pen. This could have been a disaster.

  • War on the rocks podcast.

    podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916

  • THE KREMLIN FILE: PODCAST

    Tweeting about Ukraine at @cjjohns1951

    THE KREMLIN FILE, Podcast, Episode 16, 4/21/22

    In an interview with Russian investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov, Hosts Olga Lautman and Monique Camarra asked what was happening with Putin and the leadership in Russia. 

    Soldatov noted that the war in Ukraine is different from the other Russian wars in the past few decades.

    The Scale of the War

    Putin has never engaged in a war of this scale before.    

    The Command Structure

    The wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and Syria had a clear chain of command.  There was always a commander in charge of the war, and you knew who oversaw the situation on the battlefield.  In Ukraine, we do not know that.  It is only recently that we have had a commander appointed who oversaw the entire war. 

    The Relationship Between Putin and the Command

    In other wars, Putin never attacked members of his own command structure to the extent he has in the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  There have been problems with the FSB.  Two FSB generals have been placed under house arrest.  The head of the National Guard was asked to resign and there are rumors that he is under criminal investigation.  The Defense Minister first disappeared and then reappeared (See Washington Post, 3/26/22).  There are people in every security service that Putin is unhappy with. 

    The command structure was evidently not informed of the invasion until very shortly before the order was given.  They did not have time to adequately prepare.  (Note: This may be an indication of how little Putin trusts his command structure).

    Security Services and Their Role in the War in Ukraine

    While all the security services were involved in the invasion of Ukraine, they had different objectives.  The FSB had two objectives.  They were to collect intelligence on political activity in Ukraine and cultivate political groups which might be supportive of the invasion.  They were also identifying spies and political operatives. 

    FSB intelligence had a big impact on Putin’s thinking about the invasion and the war.  But, in the end, Putin thinks he’s the best FSB agent that has ever been.

    Another problem is that the military and security services think tactically, but rarely seen the bigger picture.  They think about the tactics of invading Ukraine, but not the effect of the sanctions on the economy.  Had they limited their actions to the Donbas, securing their position there, they might have been able to expand their control over larger parts of Ukraine without provoking the sanctions.  It was their attack on Kyiv and the entire country that provoked the array of sanctions. 

    Ukraine is Different

    Putin has strong opinions about Ukraine.  He has been writing articles about Ukraine for years.  And, he is emotional about Ukraine and its place within the Russian sphere.  The failures in the war are not just a failure of the intelligence services.  They are also partly an outcome of Putin’s emotional reaction to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.  Putin takes a dim view of the Ukrainians in relation to Russians.  He had evidently decided that the Ukrainians are weak and given a shove by the Russians, the Ukrainian government would fall and be replaced by a Russian puppet.

    It is unlikely that Putin would have listened to more realistic assessments of the invasion had he been given them.  Putin considers himself the best FSB intelligence analyst in the world.  Those surrounding him know that he considers himself an expert and are unlikely to offer contradictory opinions.

    The evidence seems to indicate that Putin is not even receiving accurate assessments of what is going on in Ukraine since the initial invasion.  Putin does not read social media, or watch TV.  He would not believe anything on Western TV.  The fact that the war was going so badly for so long without any change in strategy is a further indication that Putin was not getting accurate information.  Soldatov argues that while it was evident from the beginning of the invasion that the tactics weren’t working, it took weeks for any change to be made in strategy.  Soldatov argues that this is “astonishing.”

    Weeks ago, Putin maintained he did not know about conscripts being used in Ukraine.  Soldatov is of the opinion that Putin is telling the truth about this.  The military wanted to hide the fact that this was true.  Soldatov maintains that Putin has made efforts to keep conscripts out of Ukraine.

    Putin’s attitudes about Ukrainians also contributed to other problems on the ground.  Because he was convinced that the government of Ukraine would fall almost immediately, the operation was not planned to last very long.  There are problems with communication on the ground, high level officials using unsecured lines, because it was not thought necessary to provide for long term communications technology that was secure while they were fighting a war.

    If Putin is in Charge, Putin is to Blame

    Soldatov argues that Putin’s tight control of the operation in Ukraine has contributed to resentment and low morale among those in the command structure.  Some in the government have said privately that something needed to be done about Ukraine, but not done in this way.  While Putin used to be highly popular within the bureaucracy, now even the security services bureaucracy is distant from him. 

    Putin has accused members of the FSB of misusing government funds and made attacks on members of the FSB  Now, even military counterintelligence is looking at members of the FSB.  Because of the accuracy of the information released by the US intelligence services about the invasion of Ukraine, members of the security service are suspecting a mole, and consequently looking over their shoulders. 

    The FSB is a likely place to look since the FSB was in charge of maintaining official contact with the CIA and therefore were regularly interacting with CIA members.  Because everyone is suspicious of everyone else, sharing anecdotes or complaints about Putin is not safe.

    Support for the War

    Soldatov notes that even with all the problems and setbacks and mistrust, popular support for the war seems to be increasing.  Soldatov mentions the control of information for the domestic population but thinks that the support is more than this indoctrination. 

    Additional Points

    • Chechen Forces:  Soldatov was asked about reports that Chechen forces were being used to discipline and punish Russian soldiers who seemed reluctant to fight.  Soldatov said he suspected that Chechen forces were primarily being used as propaganda.  They have a reputation for being ruthless and their presence in Ukraine is a threat to people, especially civilians.
    • In the 1990s Putin created the first generation of oligarchs.  They are beholden to him.  Putin is an expert at managing them.  After 2014, it became important to make sure they had a source of income after the take over of Crimea.  Putin offered them lucrative contracts with the state, mostly military contracts.  In five years, they became an essential part of the Military Industrial complex.
    • Ukrainian intelligence released a list of Russian security service members publicly.  It is difficult to evaluate this list since there are no directorates listed.  What is interesting about this is that it is another example of the Ukrainian government talking to the Russian government in pubic.  Usually this type of thing would be negotiated in secret.  Only the two governments actually know what is being talked about.  Outsiders can’t sufficiently evaluate the list or why it was released.  Ukrainians are using the public space to convey something to Russian security services.  (Not: This is much like the public release of information before the war by the US intelligence community.)

    This is an excellent podcast for anyone interested in the invasion of Ukraine or Russia. The Kremlin File

  • UKRAINE UPDATE: ODESA

    Odesa

    SATURDAY 23 APRIL 2022

    UKRAINE

    MSNBC, 4:00 PM

    • Mariupol Mayor says that mass grave could hold as much as 9,000 bodies.  East of Mariupol.  Another one West of Mariupol. 
    • Missile strike on Odesa.  Russians claim that they are going to conquer the entire southern coast of Ukraine.
    • This missile strike on Odesa may be the start of that effort.
    • Black Diplomat Podcast, Terrel J. Starr (who has been in Ukraine along with Chris Sampson and Malcolm Nance).  Putin needs a victory for his people.  Bringing forth a victory in Mariupol would be something he wants and needs.  The Ukrainians will fight if they have to throw rocks.  Russia will be more isolated than ever.  What Putin is doing is genocide.  Putin talks about Ukrainians as “white trash.”  He referred to Crimean Tartars as Isalamic Terrorists.  “He (Putin) is racist.”  (Note: Starr will be returning to Ukraine). 
    • Nayyera Haq, Formerly State Department:  Russia has threatened their annihilation.  Can they bring along Saudi Arabia and India to isolate Russia.  Ukraine has been destroyed.   China has not aligned with democracies in the world. 

    THE KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • Mariupol has been surrounded for almost two months.
    • Zelensky: Ukraine will pull out of peace talks if Russia kills Ukrainian troops in Mariupol.
    • Military expert Michael Kofman says that whether Donbas succeeds or fails for the Russians, the Russian military will be exhausted afterwards.
    • Kuleba: Russia must be designated a state sponsor of terrorism.
    • Two Russian generals killed near Kherson.
    • Finland reduces electricity imports from Russia
    • Russia forcibly deports 308 Mariupol residents to Vladivostok, including 90 children.
    • Russians are clearing debris at the theatre that they bombed on March 16 and dumping the bodies in mass graves.
    • Ukraine liberates three settlements in Kharkiv.
    • Ukraine attempting to evacuate people from Mariupol on April 23.
    • Civilians have been sheltering in the basements of the Axovstal plant for nearly two months.

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • Russians are holding “pseudo-referendums” in occupied territory.
    • Zelensky: Ukraine would strengthen NATO.  Ukraine’s absence from the Alliance is a strategic mistake.
    • Turkey closes airspace to Russian military and civilian aircraft flying to Syria.
    • In Kherson an elevator was robbed and all grain was taken to the occupied Crimea.
    • Russians force Ukrainian farmers to start sowing, demanding that they hand over all the harvest.

    EUROMAIDAN PRESS (@eUROMAIDANpRESS)

    • Russians abduct civic activist Panchenko, who protested their invasion.
    • Article about Russian ideology.  See Euromaidan Press.

  • What is the history between Ukraine and Russia, and why Russia invaded | Euromaidan Press

    Russian Ukrainophobia and imperialism have been the main issues in history between Ukraine and Russia and explain why Russia invade Ukraine
    — Read on euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/06/ruscism-towards-ukrainians-imperialism-for-the-world-what-is-the-history-between-ukraine-and-russia-why-did-russia-invade-ukraine/