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Tweeting at @cjjohns1951
THE KREMLIN FILE, Podcast, Episode 16, 4/21/22
In an interview with Russian investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov, Hosts Olga Lautman and Monique Camarra asked what was happening with Putin and the leadership in Russia.
Soldatov noted that this war in Ukraine is different from the other Russian wars in the past few decades.
The Scale of the War
Putin has never engaged in a war of this scale before.
The Command Structure
The wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and Syria had a clear chain of command. There was always a commander in charge of the war and you knew who was in charge of the situation on the battlefield. In Ukraine, we do not know that. It is only recently that we have had a commander appointed who was in charge of the entire war.
The Relationship Between Putin and the Command
In other wars, Putin has never attacked members of his own command structure to this extent. There have been problems with the FSB, two generals have been placed under house arrest. The head of the National Guard was asked to resign and there are rumors that he is under criminal investigation. The Defense Minister disappeared and then reappeared (See Washington Post, 3/26/22). There are people in every security service that Putin is unhappy with.
The command structure was evidently not informed of the invasion until very shortly before the order was given. They did not have time to adequately prepare. (Note: This may be an indication of how little Putin trusts his command structure).
Security Services and Their Role in the War in Ukraine
While all the security services were involved in the invasion of Ukraine, they had different objectives. The FSB had two objectives. They were to collect intelligence on political activity in Ukraine and cultivate political groups which might be supportive of the invasion. They were identifying spies and political operatives.
The FSB intelligence had a big impact on Putin’s thinking about the invasion and the war. But, in the end, Putin thinks he’s the best FSB agent that has ever been.
The military and security services think tactically, but they rarely seen the bigger picture. They think about the tactics of invading Ukraine, but not the effect of the sanctions on the economy. Had they limited their actions to the Donbas, securing their position there, they might have been able to expand their control over larger parts of Ukraine without provoking the sanctions. It was their attack on Kyiv and the entire country that provoked the array of sanctions.
Ukraine is Different
Putin has strong opinions about Ukraine. He has been writing articles about Ukraine for years. And, he is emotional about Ukraine and its place within the Russian sphere. This is not just a failure of the intelligence services, it’s also partly an outcome of Putin’s emotional reaction to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Putin takes a dim view of the Ukrainians in relation to Russians. He had evidently decided that the Ukrainians were weak and given a shove by the Russians, the Ukrainian government would fall and be replaced by a Russian puppet.
It is unlikely that Putin would have listened to more realistic assessments of the likelihood of the success of the invasion had he been given them. He considers himself the best FSB intelligence analyst in the world.
And, the evidence seems to indicate that Putin is not receiving accurate assessments of what is going on in Ukraine. He does not read social media, or watch TV. And, he would not believe anything on Western TV. The fact that the war was going so badly for so long without any change in strategy is a further indication that Putin was not getting accurate information.
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UKRAINE, 7 PM
THE KYIV INDEPENDENT
- Russian force enter two new territorial communities in Kherson.
- Russians thwart evacuation efforts in Luhansk.
- Russians shell hospital in Donetsk.
- Spain reopened its embassy in Kyiv.
- US not ready to reopen embassy in Kyiv.
- In Bucha Russian troops killed local officials, activists or men of military age who they sought out, and others indiscriminately.
- Russian forces move into two new regions of Kherson.
EUROMAIDAN PRESS
- The Netherlands has a plan to end purchase of crude oil and natural gas by the end of the year.
- UK returning its embassy to Kyiv.
- Ukrainian PM, in a call with Blinken, called for the exclusion of all banks from the SWIFT system and the recognition of Russia as a sponsor of terrorism.
- Crimea Tartar leader Mustafa Dzhemilev sentenced for trying to enter his native Crimea.
- “The EU has paid Russia 20 times more for fossil fuels than the amount of military aid provided to Ukraine.”
- Ukraine has appealed to the EU to create a deposit account for Russian gas payments which will be unblocked only after Russia withdraws troops.
- Mass grave reported in occupied Vynohradne, near Mariupol.
- Bodies of a man and woman found burned near Izium. Russian soldiers tortured them in a basement and then tried to burn the bodies.
- In the east and South of Ukraine, heavy fighting is taking place along the entire line of contact.
- Putin tripled spending on state media in the first quarter of this year from a year before.
- The world delays switch to renewable energy which was advocated for decades due to climate change.
- Village head describes being tortured in Russian custody. “They shaved my head…pulled a bag on my head and shot over my head.” A journalist in the cell with her tried to hang herself on a sheet.
- Kremlin continues to arrest and remove from the post the top leadership of the Russian army and navy. Due to heavy losses of personnel and equipment (esp the Moskva) Commander of the Black Sea Fleet was arrested; several Lieutenant Generals were fired.
- Zelensky: European countries still buying Russian gas, make money “out of blood.”
- FSB is confiscating expensive goods from soldiers who looted them in Ukraine.
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Russia will use only conventional weapons in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in response to a question about the possible use of nuclear arms in the war.
— Read on www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/lavrov-says-russia-will-not-hit-ukraine-with-nukes/ -
After barely surviving not one but two poisonings, leading Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza knows the risks of criticising his country’s
— Read on technotrenz.com/news/vladimir-kara-murza-has-been-poisoned-twice-and-is-currently-incarcerated-for-criticizing-putin-but-his-wife-claims-he-will-not-stop-1838736.html -
The Kremlin denies being behind the reported poisoning of Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and two Ukrainian negotiators during peace talks in Kyiv in early March, though poison has long been a weapon of choice for Russia in the past.
— Read on www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2022/03/29/putins-poisonous-playbook—before-abramovich-russia-has-a-dark-history-of-reportedly-poisoning-opponents/ -
WASHINGTON (TND) – Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly has people tasting his food before he eats it, and has replaced his entire personal staff of 1,000 people in the last month. This is according toDaily Beast contributing editor Craig Copetas, who also says poison is the preferred method of assassination in Russia. Laundresses, secretaries, cooks — to a whole new group of people.
— Read on katv.com/news/nation-world/putin-has-replaced-1000-personal-staff-over-fears-of-being-poisoned-says-report-russia-vladimir-food-tasting-taste-test-daily-beast-craig-copetas -
Moldova, which for years has vied with Ukraine for the unenviable title of “poorest country in Europe,” now has a more urgent concern: the potentially horror of a Russian invasion if Vladimir Putin gets his way in Ukraine.
— Read on washdiplomat.com/moldova-unprotected-by-nato-worries-its-next-on-putins-hit-list/ -
THURSDAY 21 APRIL 2022
Tweeting at @cjjohns1951
UKRAINE UPDATE
CNN
• Satellite imagery seems to indicate that Russians are digging mass graves and trying to hide the number of civilians who have been killed in Mariupol.
• Evacuation efforts are being stymied.
UKRAINE: THE TELEGRAPH
• It’s day 57 in the war against Ukraine.
• Mariupol. Putin says that it has been “liberated.” Putin was shown receiving news that Mariupol was liberated. The reception of the information was called “stage-managed television.” The Russians are saying they will not storm the steel plant. Putin is claiming a win and saying that by not storming the steel plant, they will not have excessive bloodshed. This for domestic consumption, to claim some sort of victory before celebrations on May 9.
• The analysts say that the Russians are going to lose too many men and equipment trying to take the steel plant. The plant is tactically irrelevant. They are pressing it because of the symbolic value.
• Through public statements, Putin is preparing his defense in public against international war crimes charges.
• Ukraine saying that they will try to strike the Crimea bridge. This is the longest bridge? In Europe.
• Mykolaiv: Mykolaiv, on the route to Odesa, is under extreme pressure but not yet occupied by Russians. Russian forces tried to go around Mylokaiv to get to Odesa but were repulsed. There are severe water shortages. The city has been under shelling, heavy shelling for weeks. Russians are threatening that if they do not surrender they will suffer the fate of Mariupol. The Mayor says that the Russian troops are under-motivated.
• Russian missile launched yesterday: As the situation gets more desperate, we can expect a further threatening of nuclear warheads. Putin described missile as a “present to NATO.” Putin claims that it is capable of overcoming all modern anti-missile efforts. It is, he said “food for thought.”
• Putin needs to build the narrative that the war is going well before the May 9 parade in Moscow.
• At the end of WWII, as the war was increasingly going badly for Germany, Hitler became convinced that the way forward was to sink millions into science and modern warfare. He believed that this could reverse the war in one stroke. The result was a technical disaster, shortage of resources, military equipment. The allies stuck for the most part with conventional weapons. There are parallels in Ukraine. Russia is looking toward more advanced forms of warfare that could show NATO who’s boss. It’s a mistake. It’s a mistake they made during the cold war.
• These weapons could cause massive explosions.
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FRIDAY 22 APRIL 2022, 5:30 AM
UKRAINE UPDATE – DAY 58
UKRAINE WORLD
- Zelensky estimates that there are 120,000 civilians still in Mariupol.
- Entry and exit from Crimea has been barred to secure the spring conscription.
- Video: Chechen unit “Kadyrovtsy” in Mariupol. The speaker is saying: “an order to destroy and purge Mariupol is fulfilled. The order of President Putin is fulfilled, the order of Kadyrov is fulfilled.”
- Post by Julia Davis showing clip from Russian State TV. Missile launchings and explosions on one side of screen. Commentators on the other. The commentators are saying that the US doesn’t have this kind of missile and that they can go right over the North Pole and strike targets like New York City. The commentators are smiling joyfully.
EUROMAIDAN PRESS
- Russia declined proposals to establish a four-day Easter Ceasefire.
- Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reported to Putin that Mariupol was “captured.” Zelensky says that there are some 400 Ukrainian wounded soldiers still in Azovstal.
- Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Moscow Patriarchate, proposes holding Easter procession to Mariupol to evacuate civilians and wounded soldiers.
- Ukrainian soldiers are training in the UK.
- Japan for the first time issues a diplomatic guide that recognizes the South Kuril Islands as “illegally occupied by Russia.”
- French companies are the single biggest foreign employer in Russia, they pay billions in taxes. Most of them have stayed.
- Oleksiy Danilov: “There was a total Russification of our country. And if we don’t get rid of this Russification in all spheres of our lives now…we may have the same war with Russia” in the future.
- Russian military began to transport stolen grain by train from Kherson to occupied Crimea.
- There are reports of Russians selling vegetables transported from Kherson in Crimea.
MSNBC
- Mass graves in Mariupol, the Russians hide the dead. It is estimated that as many as 9,000 are buried in those mass graves.
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Vladislav Avayev and Sergey Protosenya were found dead in their respective homes in Spain and Moscow.
— Read on www.businessinsider.com/2-russian-oligarchs-found-dead-spain-moscow-reports-2022-4 -
WEDNESDAY 20 APRIL 2022
In the middle of a war, Fox News spent hours doing live coverage of a defamation case between two Hollywood actors. Hours.
UKRAINE UPDATE
CNN
- Leon Panetta: We need to get the Ukrainians the weaponry they need.
UKRAINE WORLD
- The humanitarian corridor from Mariupol did not work. Russians couldn’t get their own military to comply?
- Russia is preparing a “pseudo-referendum” in the Kherson region.
- German foreign minister says that Germany will abandon imports of Russian energy by the end of the summer.
- Russia is arranging for relatives of soldiers killed in Ukraine to come and return free of charge to identify bodies. This is an incentive to mercenaries.
- Russia accuses Ukrainians of refusing to be “constructive” on key issues.
- A library is bombed in Chernihiv.
- The acting mayor of Berdyansk says that occupying Russians are demanding “holiday” concerts on May 9.
- At least 2,000 families let without homes in Irpin.
- Russian propaganda is demonizing Poland.
- “A full and immediate ban on Russian oil and gas will save Ukraine.”
THE KYIV INDEPENDENT
- Nuland says that NATO allies could be involved in safe passage of civilians and wounded from occupied Mariupol.
- Russian announced the test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile. Putin says the missile will “strengthen the combat potential” of Russia.
- Zelensky urges the EU to impose a full embargo on Russian oil and gas.
- Russia has announced a list of Ukrainian celebrities, influencers who are now banned from visiting Russia for 50 years.
- Intelligence reporting that Russia may launch cyberattacks against countries supporting Ukraine.
- US announces new sanctions against Russia.
CNN
- Ukrainians are being made hostages by being taken to Russia against their will.
- The US was told about the launch of the Russian missile ahead of time.
EUROMAIDAN PRESS
- Russian attacks destroyed food stocks in Severodonetsk.
- Ukrainian intelligence released intercepted conversation between Russian military indicating that they were ordered to kill Ukrainian POWs in Popasna in Luhansk.
MSNBC
- James Acton: Talking about another nuclear plant in Ukraine. Russia’s behavior was “reckless.” A bigger danger is the operating plants. There are various safety levels. In a war, a failure of all of these systems together is more likely.
- Zaporizhzhia is an operating plant. You need active cooling to maintain the plant.
- Finland is talking about joining NATO today in Parliament.
TWITTER
- Lindy Li: Michael Flynn “says we should stop sending military aid to Ukraine and suggests that we should just let Russia take Ukraine.”
- Andrew Wortman: “…he (Flynn) and his traitor brother need to be expelled from our military and indicted for treason.”
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Some in the elite fear the invasion was a catastrophic mistake — but say the Russian president won’t relent and is in no danger of losing power.
— Read on www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/putin-s-war-in-ukraine-has-russian-elites-fearing-global-isolation -
‘Hide the girls’: How Russian soldiers rape and torture Ukrainians
— Read on kyivindependent.com/national/hide-the-girls-how-russian-soldiers-rape-and-torture-ukrainians/
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