• UKRAINE UPDATE

    THURSDAY 21 APRIL 2022

    Tweeting at @cjjohns1951

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    CNN

    •          Satellite imagery seems to indicate that Russians are digging mass graves and trying to hide the number of civilians who have been killed in Mariupol.

    •          Evacuation efforts are being stymied.

    UKRAINE: THE TELEGRAPH

    •          It’s day 57 in the war against Ukraine.

    •          Mariupol. Putin says that it has been “liberated.”  Putin was shown receiving news that Mariupol was liberated.  The reception of the information was called “stage-managed television.”  The Russians are saying they will not storm the steel plant.  Putin is claiming a win and saying that by not storming the steel plant, they will not have excessive bloodshed.  This for domestic consumption, to claim some sort of victory before celebrations on May 9.

    •          The analysts say that the Russians are going to lose too many men and equipment trying to take the steel plant.  The plant is tactically irrelevant.  They are pressing it because of the symbolic value.

    • Through public statements, Putin is preparing his defense in public against international war crimes charges.

    •          Ukraine saying that they will try to strike the Crimea bridge.  This is the longest bridge? In Europe.

    •          Mykolaiv: Mykolaiv, on the route to Odesa, is under extreme pressure but not yet occupied by Russians.  Russian forces tried to go around Mylokaiv to get to Odesa but were repulsed.  There are severe water shortages.  The city has been under shelling, heavy shelling for weeks.  Russians are threatening that if they do not surrender they will suffer the fate of Mariupol.  The Mayor says that the Russian troops are under-motivated. 

    •          Russian missile launched yesterday: As the situation gets more desperate, we can expect a further threatening of nuclear warheads.  Putin described missile as a “present to NATO.”  Putin claims that it is capable of overcoming all modern anti-missile efforts.  It is, he said “food for thought.” 

    •          Putin needs to build the narrative that the war is going well before the May 9 parade in Moscow.

    •          At the end of WWII, as the war was increasingly going badly for Germany, Hitler became convinced that the way forward was to sink millions into science and modern warfare.  He believed that this could reverse the war in one stroke.  The result was a technical disaster, shortage of resources, military equipment.  The allies stuck for the most part with conventional weapons.  There are parallels in Ukraine.  Russia is looking toward more advanced forms of warfare that could show NATO who’s boss.  It’s a mistake.  It’s a mistake they made during the cold war. 

    •          These weapons could cause massive explosions. 

  • FRIDAY 22 APRIL 2022, 5:30 AM

    UKRAINE UPDATE – DAY 58

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • Zelensky estimates that there are 120,000 civilians still in Mariupol.
    • Entry and exit from Crimea has been barred to secure the spring conscription.
    • Video: Chechen unit “Kadyrovtsy” in Mariupol.  The speaker is saying: “an order to destroy and purge Mariupol is fulfilled.  The order of President Putin is fulfilled, the order of Kadyrov is fulfilled.”
    • Post by Julia Davis showing clip from Russian State TV.  Missile launchings and explosions on one side of screen.  Commentators on the other.  The commentators are saying that the US doesn’t have this kind of missile and that they can go right over the North Pole and strike targets like New York City.  The commentators are smiling joyfully. 

    EUROMAIDAN PRESS

    • Russia declined proposals to establish a four-day Easter Ceasefire.
    • Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reported to Putin that Mariupol was “captured.”  Zelensky says that there are some 400 Ukrainian wounded soldiers still in Azovstal.
    • Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Moscow Patriarchate, proposes holding Easter procession to Mariupol to evacuate civilians and wounded soldiers.
    • Ukrainian soldiers are training in the UK.
    • Japan for the first time issues a diplomatic guide that recognizes the South Kuril Islands as “illegally occupied by Russia.”
    • French companies are the single biggest foreign employer in Russia, they pay billions in taxes.  Most of them have stayed.
    • Oleksiy Danilov: “There was a total Russification of our country.  And if we don’t get rid of this Russification in all spheres of our lives now…we may have the same war with Russia” in the future.
    • Russian military began to transport stolen grain by train from Kherson to occupied Crimea.
    • There are reports of Russians selling vegetables transported from Kherson in Crimea.

    MSNBC

    • Mass graves in Mariupol, the Russians hide the dead.  It is estimated that as many as 9,000 are buried in those mass graves.

  • UKRAINE UPDATE

    WEDNESDAY 20 APRIL 2022

    In the middle of a war, Fox News spent hours doing live coverage of a defamation case between two Hollywood actors.  Hours.

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    CNN

    • Leon Panetta: We need to get the Ukrainians the weaponry they need.

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • The humanitarian corridor from Mariupol did not work.  Russians couldn’t get their own military to comply?
    • Russia is preparing a “pseudo-referendum” in the Kherson region. 
    • German foreign minister says that Germany will abandon imports of Russian energy by the end of the summer.
    • Russia is arranging for relatives of soldiers killed in Ukraine to come and return free of charge to identify bodies.  This is an incentive to mercenaries.
    • Russia accuses Ukrainians of refusing to be “constructive” on key issues.
    • A library is bombed in Chernihiv.
    • The acting mayor of Berdyansk says that occupying Russians are demanding “holiday” concerts on May 9.
    • At least 2,000 families let without homes in Irpin.
    • Russian propaganda is demonizing Poland.
    • “A full and immediate ban on Russian oil and gas will save Ukraine.”

    THE KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • Nuland says that NATO allies could be involved in safe passage of civilians and wounded from occupied Mariupol.
    • Russian announced the test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile.  Putin says the missile will “strengthen the combat potential” of Russia.
    • Zelensky urges the EU to impose a full embargo on Russian oil and gas.
    • Russia has announced a list of Ukrainian celebrities, influencers who are now banned from visiting Russia for 50 years.
    • Intelligence reporting that Russia may launch cyberattacks against countries supporting Ukraine.
    • US announces new sanctions against Russia.

    CNN

    • Ukrainians are being made hostages by being taken to Russia against their will.
    • The US was told about the launch of the Russian missile ahead of time.

    EUROMAIDAN PRESS

    • Russian attacks destroyed food stocks in Severodonetsk.
    • Ukrainian intelligence released intercepted conversation between Russian military indicating that they were ordered to kill Ukrainian POWs in Popasna in Luhansk.

    MSNBC

    • James Acton: Talking about another nuclear plant in Ukraine.  Russia’s behavior was “reckless.”  A bigger danger is the operating plants.  There are various safety levels.  In a war, a failure of all of these systems together is more likely. 
    • Zaporizhzhia is an operating plant.  You need active cooling to maintain the plant. 
    • Finland is talking about joining NATO today in Parliament.

    TWITTER

    • Lindy Li: Michael Flynn “says we should stop sending military aid to Ukraine and suggests that we should just let Russia take Ukraine.”
    • Andrew Wortman: “…he (Flynn) and his traitor brother need to be expelled from our military and indicted for treason.”
  • MODAY 18 APRIL 2022

    Articles You Should Read:

    • Rick Scott revealed a tax plan that is the dream of the Republican Party.
    • The White House pointed out that it would increase the taxes of over half Americans.
    • McConnell has distanced himself from the proposal but it is squarely in line with policies the Republicans have supported for decades.  The policy direction of the Republican party has always been to structure the tax system to benefit the rich and powerful and to eliminate social programs that help the working and lower classes.
    • The reason the party elite is objecting to Scott’s proposal is that it makes the policy direction all to clear.

    https://news.yahoo.com/why-democrats-republicans-gop-senator-230158237.html

    •  Scott’s “Plan to Rescue America” (for the rich and powerful) is meant to outline his party’s political priorities should the Republicans retake the Senate.
    • The tax burden would further penalize millions of voters , mostly lower or middle income.
    • Scott’s plan would end all federal programs after five years requiring congress to continually vote to reauthorize their existence.  (Note: Given the amount of time Congress actually spends in Washington, this would never get done.)
    • This would endanger social Security, Medicare and Medicaid
    • (Note: McConnell’s objections to Scott’s plan is not that he would not pursue these goals in a heartbeat, it’s just that he doesn’t want everybody to know it.)
    • Many republicans support cuts in these programs and also privatizing them.
  • UKRAINE UPDATE

    MONDAY 18 APRIL 2022

    CNN

    • The Russian offensive in the east has begun.
    • (Note: How many gd times are these anchors going to ask different people how the current offensive is different from the first one?)

    MSNBC: Ari Melber

    • Russian missile attacks on Lyiv.  Lyiv had been a refuge for refugees.
    • Barry McCaffery: “He has conducted a criminal operation against Ukraine.”  The brutality of the ground forces, acting “like savages against women and children.” 
    • “Evacuate to where?”  Ukrainian woman.
    • 90% of Mariupol is thought to be completely destroyed.
    • Putin thinks he’s winning the war according to the Austrian Chancellor.
    • Evelyn Farkas: Coons evidently hinted at US military becoming involved.  She thinks we need to leave these options on the table.  (Note: So do I.)
    • Barry McCaffrey: The target is not the land in the east, it’s the Ukrainian army.  (Note: McCaffrey thinks that the Biden administration has done an absolutely wonderful job in this first phase of the war in Ukraine.  Yep, I agree, they just lost a quarter of the country if things don’t change.)
    • Kirby: (Note: Kirby is an actor.  He is sent out there not to tell the truth, but to perpetuate certain narratives.)
    •  

    EUROMAIDAN PRESS

    • As of April 18, Russian are holding 20,000 people in so-called “filtration camps” west of Mariupol.
    • 5,000-7,000 people remain in a filtration camp in Bezimeene west of Mariupol.  They are being prepared for transportation to Russia.
    • Russian invaders have abducted the 16-year-old child of a Zaporizhzhia regional head.
    • Zelensky: The Russians are attacking in a “little more thought-out manner…putting pressure, looking for a weak spot in the defense of our state to go there with the main forces.”
    • Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman has warned that more than 400 people from Mariupol, including 147 children, have been transferred by Russians to a fenced camp near Penza.
    • Google Maps has opened “all military and strategic facilities in Russia….Any user can see the airfields of Russia, naval bases, launch pads…” (Quote from article)
    • Russia has started a cyber attack, sending out emails that are titled: Urgently. Deblockade of Azovstal.”  Opening the document leads to an attack by Cobalt Strike Beacon.
    • Putin rewards the brigade which massacred people in Bucha.
  • MONDAY 18 APRIL 2022

    Joe Scarborough took his audience through a detailed analysis of how the events in Ukraine are like the suffering of the Christian Christ from Friday to Sunday.  The dreaded Mika sat beside him staring with adoration.  Best Scarborough quote, said with the injured pride of the religious right: “I believe because I believe and if that offends you, so be it.”  The injured pride is a political construct created by the Republicans.  There is a church on every corner.  Christianity is not a beleaguered, oppressed religion.  To maintain that it is feeds into the politics of grievance practiced so successfully on the right and the fascist right.

    Later in Monday’s show Joe Scarborough actually sat on national television and scoffed at the people who go to Maralago and act like “crabs in a bucket” crawling all over each other trying to get Trump’s attention.  In 2016, Morning Joe started off every show with coverage of Trump, usually Trump phoning in himself.  The dreaded Mika asked Trump’s permission to ask him hard questions over a hot mic.  The two were at Maralago after the election.  So, they were part of the bucket of crabs crawling all over each other to get Trump’s attention and largess.  They only broke with Trump when he revealed their adulterous affair.  But Joe Scarborough can look down on the crabs because he conveniently refuses to acknowledge he was one.  “I believe because I believe and if that offends you, so be it.”  God help us.

    UKRAINE

    The American party line this morning on Ukraine is that even if Ukraine loses Mariupol (which it seems likely to do) it has been a victory because it has drained Russian assets.  Nothing like turning a defeat of losing a fourth of the country into a victory because it serves American interests.   Defending this crescent of land from Kharkiv to Odesa would be easier than trying to take it back.  But, it really doesn’t matter because we can just call it a victory.  More delusional thinking.

    MSNBC

    • The steel factory is the last remaining hold out for the Ukrainians in Mariupol. 
    • Fighting is stalled around Kherson.
    • There is an expected push in the east within the next few days.
    • The sycophant, Jonathan Lemire, on Morning Joe, repeats the formula about Mariupol.  According to Lemire, Mariupol will probably fall, but it took over a month rather than the expected few days.  What this is designed to impart is that the loss of Mariupol and the establishment of a land-bridge from Kharkiv to Odesa which takes up something like a fourth of the country is a victory rather than a defeat.  So, the West hasn’t abandoned Ukraine, Ukraine is fighting (and really winning). 
    • (Note: In a conversation, I mentioned that a local store was flying a Ukrainian flag.  Friend dismissed the act by saying that it was an attempt to appeal to gullible people’s “sympathy.”  It’s amazing how a country fighting for its very life, taking astonishing loses, fighting against enormous odds, trying to save the democracy the people had established after throwing out a Russian kleptocratic stooge, can elicit sympathy from gullible people.  Jesus.)
    • Clint Watts: How long can the fighters in the steel mill in Mariupol keep supplied?  Belgorod is a major Russian military supply line.  Forces are being moved from there South and East to Izyum.  They are trying to build combat power in Izyum.  They are also moving North and west to Severodonetsk and Slovyansk.  The Russians are trying to trap segments of the Ukrainian army.  Slovyansk is going to be a key battle in the region.  Part of the issue is the resupply of munitions.  The Russians have taken the railroads near the Black Sea.
    • Foreign Policy Article: There is a shift from defensive to offensive supplies going from U.S. to Ukraine.  (Note: One of the reporters commented recently that Biden had essentially given up on this distinction between “offensive” and “defensive” weapons.  The distinction didn’t really exist in the first place.  The assumption was that if the US didn’t supply “offensive” weapons it wouldn’t be considered an “escalation.”  I don’t know where people come up with this bull.)
    • There are plans for US trainers to go into NATO countries. 
    • Amy Mackinnon: In the past “offensive” weapons supply was considered to escalate and to be considered by Russia as provocative.  Zelensky notes that this supply of weapons is not enough and not fast enough.  One official said it was like trying to put out a raging fire one glass of water at the time.
    • Richard Haas: Most of the combat is in the east, but Russians sent missiles into Lyiv yesterday. 
    • (Note: The Washington press is obsessed with these designations like “State Sponsor of Terrorism” or “War Crimes.”  Other people, not so much.  Amy MacKinnon tells Lemire that she doesn’t think the administration is very concerned with these designations.)
    • Clint Watts: Russians are trying to flank around the Ukrainian positions established for years in the Donbas.  Russian military is being redeployed and they are tired.  It is estimated that they have lost 40,000 soldiers killed or wounded or missing.  (Note: “disinfo” has become a verb.  Example: You can’t disinfo your way out of that forever.” God help us.)
  • UKRAINE UPDATE, 3:00 PM

    16 APRIL 2022

    NYT:

    • The Russians are claiming that they have seized Mariupol except for a steel plant near the port.  They are saying that the only chance of the remaining Ukrainian military surviving is to surrender.
    • Zelensky acknowledged that the Ukrainian forces only controlled a small part of the port city.
    • Targets throughout Ukraine were pounded on Saturday in what is thought to be retaliation for the sinking of the flagship.
    • The shelling is also thought to be preparation for the attack in the east.
    • Russians targeted a Kyiv tank factory where the missiles were produced that sank the Moskya.
    • “Russia is ambling toward a major default on its foreign debt…”
    • The legal question about the default is over who decides if a nation has defaulted if sanctions have curbed the ability to pay.
    • A missile slammed into a shopping mall in Kharkiv.
    • The UN warned that closures of ports on the Black Sea could trigger a global food catastrophe “that yields starvation, mass migration and political instability.”
    • Ukraine’s silos are brimming with grains that in a normal year help feed 400 million people around the world.
    • Zelensky has said that in an attempt to control occupied areas, Russians are hunting down anybody ever associated with the Ukrainian military or government.  In the eastern Zaporizhzhia region alone, Russia’s forces have kidnapped more than 30 local government leaders.
    • Ukrainians say that the Russians are trying to cover up the evidence of war crimes in the areas they occupy.
    • There are estimated to be more than 100,000 civilians still in Mariupol.
    • Russia has barred Boris Johnson from visiting Russia.

    UKRAINE WORLD @ukraine_world (One of the best sources of information out there).  They are on twitter and have podcasts and a website.  I was listening to their podcasts before this all started.  Fascinating.  If you have the time, go back and listen to the prior podcasts where they talk about Zelensky and Ukrainian politics.

    • “Separatists” in the Donbas were drafting 16-year-olds.
    • Another Russian major general killed and buried in St. Petersburg.
    • Britain is ready to provide further military aid to Ukraine.
    • Some 400,000 people have reentered Ukraine since the 24 February, many of them evacuated previously.
    • Russians are preparing a referendum in Kherson around May 1 to May 10.
    • Near Kherson, Russians are distributing leaflets saying that they are fighting the “Kyiv Regime.”  They also say that Russians do not wage war against civilians.
    • “Ukraine asks Europe for weapons.  Europeans support the call for their governments.  Europe gives Ukraine weapons, not the ones asked for.  Weapons take too long to arrive.  Democracy won’t win from playing this game.  Ukraine needs weapons.”
    • The Mayor of Lozova (between Kyiv and Kharkiv) calls on town’s citizens to immediately leave via the 17:30 train to Khmelnytskyi.
  • UKRAINE

    FRIDAY 15 APRIL 2022, 7 pm

    MSNBC: Ari Melber

    • The Russians have blockaded the ports on the Black Sea.  They have been firing long-range missiles into Ukraine.  There was the threat of an amphibius invasion particularly around Odesa.
    • Why is it important that this was Russia’s flagship.
    • Ray Mabus, fmr. Sec. of the Navy: It hasn’t happened since WWII.  This was the ship that threatened people on Snake Island.  A stamp has been issued commemorating this ship.  Neptune missiles that hit it were developed and made inside Ukraine.  The Russians underestimated the Ukrainians.  Ukraine can use the smaller weapons and also sophisticated long range missiles.
    • Kasparov:  This war can last for months but not for years.  If Putin doesn’t have a decisive win in the east by May 9, I don’t see the necessary losses to give a Russian win. 
    • Mabus: The Russians don’t have the long term capabilities to continue this war, but he is perfectly willing to continue to pour people and money into this.  What is possible is just to change the definition of victory and get out.  The time has passed when you say that the Russians win this war.  They are not going to subjugate Ukraine.

    MSNBC: Mehdi Hassan

    • Zelensky cautioned the world from assuming that Russia would lose this war.  We have a very small window of opportunity.
    • Russia formally warns the U.S. that sending the most sensitive weapons to Ukraine is an escalation and could provoke consequences.
    • William Burns, CIA Director, warned today that an increasingly cornered Putin means that we must not take likely a resort to a tactical nuclear weapon.
    • Zelensky said that the world should prepare for a nuclear attack inside Ukraine.
    • This would be the first nuclear attack since that by the U.S. on Japan.
    • Phillip Breedlove, Military.  There is no infrastructure in Mariupol.  It is one of the two remaining large ports in Ukraine that keep it connected to the rest of the world.  The land bridge from Donesk to Crimea, is also essential.  Some soldiers had to surrender because of lack of food and supplies, this is the fault of the West.
    • Breedlove: We will likely find brutality and war crimes.  Breedlove has said that the U.S. had been completely deterred by Russia nuclear capacity but the Russians have been not at all deterred by U.S. Nuclear weapons. 
    • Hassan: Burns said that there was a prospect of using tactical nuclear weapons.
    • Breedlove: We have to take this threat seriously.  Putin is extremely good at deterring us.  Now declaring our weapon shipments will cause new possibilities for him.  He’s seeking to further deter us.  In Northern Syria, we took a battalion of Russians off the battle field.  “There are people in this world who believe that there is no risk if we do nothing.”
    • Hassan:  In Syria these were mercenaries.
    • Breedlove: Wagner Group is an extension of the Russian military.  “I don’t think he’s bluffing.”  Will take these more drastic actions.  But, if we allow every nation who had a nuclear weapon to blackmail us, we are going to have a tough time in the world ahead.  We don’t want Ukraine to give up sovereign territory.

    CNN

    • Teams of people working to retrieve people in mass graves in Bucha.
  • UKRAINE UPDATE

    THURSDAY 14 APRIL 2022

    UKRAINE WORLD

    • Kyiv explosions, unsure whether bombing or demining.
    • Russia has either captured or is blocking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.  Maritime trade is a huge part of Ukrainian economy and food exports.  It is key for global food security.
    • This is a violation of international freedom of navigation norms.
    • The Russians have virtually taken over the Sea of Azov, and is now trying to do the same with the Black Sea.
    • The warships on the Black Sea are being used to launch missiles.
    • The world should help Ukraine lift the Black Sea blockade.
    • 16 Cruise missiles were on the Moskova warship.
    • 3,600 cultural heritage sites destroyed in Ukraine.
    • Since the beginning of the invasion 324 hospitals have been damaged.
    • Over 500,000 Ukrainians have been forcibly taken to Russia.

    KYIV INDEPENDENT

    • Parliament dissolves pro-Russian Opposition Platform faction.  Zelensky signed a decree banning all pro-Russian political projects.
    • Ireland supports EU ban on Russian gas imports.
    • Moldova bans Russian pro-war symbols.
    • Dutch government instructs firms not to pay for Russian gas in rubles.

    CNN

    • Unsure whether Russian ship explosion has resulted in a withdrawal of that ship and other ships.
    • This leads to belief that it was a strike or Russian ships would not be moving back off the coast.
  • UKRAINE UPDATE

    THURSDAY 14 APRIL 2022

    UKRAINE:

    Everyone is preparing for a new front in the battle for Ukraine.  Failing to take over Kyiv, the Russians are concentrating force in the east of Ukraine, solidifying and expanding control of the Donbas region.  The fighting is expected to be more brutal, the terrain is different, allowing for a more WWII style battle.  The US has approved an expanded package of aid and equipment, but the question is whether they can get the equipment there in time to make a difference. 

    It is just beyond my comprehension why the Biden administration has not already sent this equipment.  The reaction of some of the American people to the war has also just amazed me.  Certain groups of people seem completely incapable of distinguishing between a war like that against Iraq and Afghanistan (which I opposed) and the war defending Ukraine.  I am no admirer of the corporate media, but I also can see the difference between a press that is covering the war in Ukraine and a war-mongering press cheering for aggressive warfare (as they did in Panama, Iraq and Afghanistan).

    UKRAINE UPDATE

    WASHINGTON POST

    • Russia warned that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Moscow will reinforce the Baltic Sea region, including deploying nuclear weapons (Washington Post).

    MSNBC

    • EU is considering ban on Russian oil.  (Note: Evidently a ban on natural gas would be more helpful.)

    CNN

    • Long range artillery is important in this new phase of the war.  The Us is providing some of this.
    • They want to stop the artillery forces.  Russians have a lot of artillery.  ‘it’s a killer on the Russian battlefield.”
    • The urgency is to deliver the equipment.
    • Advisers were trying to caution against some of this equipment.
    • The problem remains getting this equipment in fast enough to make a difference.  (Note: So why not send this before?)
    • Barbara Star trots out the Pentagon line.
    • The helicopters are important, and they were not always in the package.  Zelensky evidently talked Biden into including this.  It’s a very good helicopter for this type of terrain.
    • Biden attempted to make some kind of distinction between “offensive” and “defensive” weapons.  The assumption was that offensive weapons were escalatory.  This distinction is evidently being abandoned.  (Note: Thank God.)