FRIDAY 22 JULY 2022

@cjjohns1951

UKRAINE

There is supposed to be a deal between Russia and Ukraine to get grain out of the Black Sea ports.  Who knows how this will work.

Day 149

UKRAINE, THE LATEST, THE Telegraph podcast

• We are hearing from Turkey that a deal has been made to get the grain out.  They are expected to sign the deal today.
• Ukraine will clear the mines and the Russians are not to fire on the convoys.
• The UN is also involved in these negotiations.
• Turkey is to inspect the ships on arrival to stifle the Russian fears of arms shipments coming in on the ships.
• One Ukraine official stated that the deal is with Turkey not with Russians. 
• This may affect the cost of living in Europe. 
• This will also play into a concern that Putin is bring brought back into the international fold.  This is a negative consequence.
• The food crisis benefits Putin and we don’t know why they have been willing to come to an agreement. 
• This is an attempt at outreach on the part of Putin to the outer world. 
• Britain’s spy chief has said that Russian forces are exhausted and perhaps Ukraine can launch a counterattack.
• The U.S. believes that a counterattack is coming.  If it fails or is slow, this will play negatively abroad.
• Richard Moore, head of MI6, making remarks saying that the Russians will have to pause in the next few weeks.  This is a winnable campaign for Ukraine.  This is highly unusual for MI6 to comment publicly.  They are trying to urge western governments into realizing the seriousness of the situation. 
• Zelensky seemed confident in his recent statements. 
• There is talk of a counterattack especially in Kherson.  It was the first major city to be captured by the Russians.  There is a substantial population still there, living under occupation.
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• Georgian Legion is a group of foreign volunteers from Georgia.  They are mainly ex-professional soldiers.  There are about 800 currently serving.  They have been there since 2014.  It is independent of the Georgian government.
• In 2008 Georgia had its own war with Russia.  Russia invaded two areas in Georgia to “protect” these areas.
• The leader of the group is warning volunteers that if they come, they should have military combat experience.  They should also accept the fact that they are on the weaker side.