The armed confrontation between Ukraine and Russia started in March 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, a sovereign Ukrainian territory.
— Read on voxukraine.org/en/aftermath-of-war-for-banking-sector-in-ukraine-what-have-we-learnt-from-the-2014-conflict/
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Thursday afternoon 6:00 PM
For some reason, I woke up at 1:30 AM and reached for my mini. The first tweet I saw read: “Russia Declared War on Ukraine.” I was up and in my study/studio in five minutes. I have been there pretty much ever since.
After watching the news and reading tweets from reporters, a lot of them from Ukraine, I wondered why Biden was not on television. Then, they announced that he would be making a statement about the “crushing sanctions” at 9 AM. Well, that didn’t happen. Then, it was 12 noon. That didn’t happen either. Finally he spoke at 1:30 and the “crushing sanctions” were not apparent. Biden spent a lot of time talking about sanctions that had already been imposed, bragging about them. He spent time talking about domestic political considerations like the fear of rising gas prices. He spent a lot of time praising himself for bringing “unity” to NATO, as if that (like bipartisanship) was an end in itself. He did not, however, announce an impressive array of new sanctions, the sanctions we were being told were being held to implement if and when Putin invaded. Putin invaded last night.
There is a curiously circular narrative about sanctions. We were supposedly waiting to impose sanctions so that we would have something to threaten Putin with to keep him from invading. We were told we should ignore the Ukrainians, Zelensky in particular, pleading for the implementation of sanctions before the economy fell apart and the country had been overtaken. We had to have leverage to deter Putin.
Then, after Putin invaded, we were told that sanctions wouldn’t really deter anybody. What? If they wouldn’t deter, why wait to implement them when Russian troops were already bombing and moving into Ukraine? After Zelensky pleaded for sanctions now, the Biden administration promises in tough talking sound bites that we would impose immediate “crushing” (I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard that word) sanctions. But, we didn’t.
Then, Biden explained that sanctions would take a long time to have an effect. If that was the case why didn’t they implement them months ago, in fact, a year ago when Biden took office. Russia had already annexed Crimea, taken over parts of Donbas, and squatted in Moldova.
None of this makes any sense without facing the utter feckless, cowardly stance of the Biden administration about holding those in power accountable. They refuse to hold Putin accountable and they refuse to hold accountable Donald Trump who organized a coup. Instead, they prefer to plead and cajole and try to win favor. Biden bragged in the press conference about bring “unity” to NATO, as if that (like bipartisanship) was an end in itself.
Weeks ago, the European press was reporting that Biden had taken removal of Russia from SWIFT off the negotiating table. He removed this like he removed use of U.S. troops. He didn’t have to. The U.S. press, as far as I could see, didn’t even report the story of Biden’s (very Obama like) pre-emptive capitulation on SWIFT. Reuters reported the existence of the European story, but did not appear to even try to confirm the story. No White House reporter I heard even asked Biden whether he had already taken SWIFT off the table.
Soon after I read the article about SWIFT, articles started to appear diminishing the estimation of the utility of removing Russia from SWIFT. I wondered at the time if these articles were put out to support Biden’s capitulation. But, the story barely made a ripple.
Biden refused to answer a reporter’s question in the press conference when asked what (the hell) he was waiting for. Zelensky (who should know) is again demanding that the international community remove Russia from SWIFT.
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9:00 AM
- Keir Simmons just called Putin “delusional.”
- Vindman:” These objective were clear to me months ago.” Shocked at how limited the attacks have been.
- Kyiv Independent: Belarus launches four ballistic missiles.
- 2-3 million refugees are expected if this continues, MSNBC
- Video of cars lined up to leave Kyiv.
- Poland is gearing up for refugees. They are going to Western Ukraine. Another package of sanctions is not going to get Putin to stand down. Melinda Haring.
- Stavridis, Adm. James on MSNBC: Fear miscalculation on the ground.
- Gen. Jack Keane, Fox News: Putin has chosen the most ambitious option h had available tohim. Multiple focus points. The will install a pro-russia government. Seize key terrain, then install government. Dnieper River has a dam. Putin is trying to minimize civilian casualties? He knows the whole world is watching. Operating on four different axes of advance.
1:30 PM
- Olga Lauman notes that “pro-Russian separatists” is a totally misleading term. These groups were created and maintained by the Russians for this very purpose. Kremlin File Podcast.
- Belarus needs to be sanctioned as well.
- Chuck Todd is talking about Putin’s “paranoia.”
- MSNBC has a tank on the set. Even if it’s computer generated, it’s so tacky. I’m from the South. That’s the only word I can think of. Cheesy, cheap, tacky.
- Anti-war protestors in downtown Moscow.
- I couldn’t understand why Biden wasn’t on television last night. Then, they announced he would speak at 9:00, then at 12:00, now at 1:30. Sanctions? SWIFT?
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Ukraine Update: 2:40 AM
- MSNBC has video of Russian tanks entering Ukraine.
- McFaul: We kept dreaming about negotiating with Putin. It’s the “worst case scenario.”
- McFaul: NATO Rapid Response Force should be mobilized
- Tur: Brings up the “unhinged” charge.
- McFaul says that Putin is increasingly “disconnected from reality.” Note: Based on what evidence?
- McFaul: It seems that Belarus forces are involved in this invasion as well. Sanctions are not going to work. “We should have no illusions…”
- MSNBC, video of traffic jam in Kyiv, line of cars trying to get out. Standstill
- CNN: Missile strikes in Kyiv, Russian troops have landed in Odessa.
- There are reports of tanks entering Ukraine from Belarus, but doesn’t tell us where in Belarus.
- Putin calls it a military operation to protect Donbas and says that it is not an occupation.
- BNO is posting a map of Ukraine showing attacks reported. They are all over the country, in the interior, not just in Donbas. Also, there are attacks near the border with Moldova where Russia controls part of the country.
- BNO is posting a video of a missile hit at the airport in Ivano-Frankivsk.
- Note: I can see this “Putin is going to self-destruct” narrative on corporate news outlets. This is a convenient narrative. If Putin is going to self-destruct, the U.S. doesn’t have to make any hard choices on what to do. The logical outcome of this reasoning is that we can just sit back and let Putin self-destruct. This is delusional.
- BNO News is reporting “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers killed.
- BNO: Russia’s Defense Ministry is claiming that Ukrainian air defenses have been “neutralized.”
- BNO: “Luhansk announces military operation to seize other areas it claims in eastern Ukraine.”
- BNO: Moscow stock exchange says al trading suspended.
- Ukraine’s foreignminister: “Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
- Harrogate News is reporting a strike near Chernobyl.
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1:50 AM
Blog: 1:50 AM
- There are reports of tanks coming across the border into Ukraine from Belarus. Malcolm Nance, who was in Ukraine, reported that the Russians had divided their forces into three strike divisions in Belarus north of Kyiv.
- There is a major road coming South from Homeil in Belarus, another less direct route from Brest.
- “It feels like the system is breaking down.” McFaul talking about the post-WWII world.
- According to NDTV, Putin gave a “surprise statement” shortly before 6 AM. He called on Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms and justified the invasion with claims of “genocide” in Eastern Ukraine.
- Attacks from north, east and south, reported by CNN
- Russian troops have landed in Odessa.
- Ukraine World (UW) is reporting crossing of the border in the north at Luhansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv. Massive shelling followed by assault with tanks.
- UW reporting two villages in Luhansk taken by Russia.
- CNN, most Ukrainian troops are in the East.
- Putin warned the rest of the world this morning, not to get involved.
- MSNBC. Putin spoke at 5:45 AM. The message is being played in Russia. Russian TV is using words like “liberation.” They are reassuring the Russian public that citizens are not being hurt. They are selling the Nazi Ukrainian government. The war declaration is being played over rand over on Russian state TV.
- Reporter in Moscow, MSNBC, “people are in shock.”
- MSNBC: Casualties reported, 6 dead and injured.
- Navalny on trial this week in Russia.
- Katy Tur: “Putin sounds unhinged.” Covid, “self-isolation”. Reporter Matt Bodner: “Isolation is something we noticed.” In televised meeting with staff, sitting apart from them. Saw him slap down one of the people (rhetorically). Note: Again they ignore the fact that there is a video of Putin doing exactly this years ago.
- Jack Jacobs: Reporting dead and wounded in Odessa. Russians determining weak points and deciding where to attack next. They are waiting to see what the West will do. Waiting to see what the West will do about SWIFT. (Note: There were European reports that Biden had taken this off the table.) Once you cut them off (from SWIFT) and they continue, what do you do? This should be the last resort. (Note: Strange argument.) Once you do SWIFT, there is no follow up plan. Jacobs now talking about “rationality” of Putin.
- Jacobs: Putin’s strongest allies, most important constituency, are the oligarchs, his inner circle.
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1:00 AM (8:00 AM in Ukraine)
- Putin is trying to bring down the government of Ukraine.
- Financial markets are going to react to this.
- Explosions in many larger cities, at least three.
- People are leaving Kyiv.
- Bomb shelters are being opened in Ukraine.
- Cruise and other missiles struck around Kyiv.
- People are voluntarily trying to evacuate from Kyiv leading to traffic jams.
- Peter Baker: Putin feels he has a historical mission.
- McFaul interviewed on MSNBC: If Ukraine ran out of weapons it would be disastrous. McFaul has been recommending stronger sanctions and more military assistance for a while. Calling for massive sanctions, not ratcheting up sanctions, not targeted sanctions.
- Zelensky has tweeted asking for immediate sanctions, financial support, and to close the air space.
- There are ships in the sea of Azov. (If you don’t have a map, get one).
- McFaul: Stop framing Putin as a rational actor who wants to negotiate. “tonight there is good and evil in the world.” For Putin this will be a “catastrophic mistake.” (Note: Not if we don’t make it one).
- McFaul: “We are in the first day of a major war.” When wars start, everybody is always thinking: We’ll all be home by Christmas.
- McFaul has an article in the Journal of Democracy article taking on the arguments that this is all NATO’s fault.
- McFaul: Putin hasn’t always said that NATO expansion was a threat to Russia.
- McFaul: Putin was calling Ukrainian independence a “neo-nazi coup” provoked by the Americans.
- Velshi: Why didn’t Ukraine join NATO sooner? McFaul: Ukraine didn’t want to have conflict with Russia and therefore didn’t join NATO sooner. It was only after 2014 when Russia attacked them that the conversation about NATO started.
- Ukrainian Ambassador to UN: “There is no purgatory for war criminals, they go straight to hell.”
- When I woke up my Twitter feed said that Putin had declared war on Ukraine. He evidently gave some speech earlier.
- McFaul: Putin was warning by reminding people that Russia was a “nuclear power.”
- McFaul: “He feels really unhinged to me.” Talking about Putin.
- I hear this “Putin is not a rational actor,” line spread from network to network from reporter to reporter. Yamiche Alcindor, Michael McFaul, Don Lemon…to mention only a few.
- Images of blasts near Kyiv on CNN. Huge.
- Wesley Clark (CNN): “All of us saw this coming.” We don’t know what has been hit because Ukrainians don’t want to tell that. Putin will use a nuclear weapon to “frighten off NATO.” This aggression can’t be answered by just “standing aside.”
- MSNBC: Ben Rhodes: Crimea was relatively bloodless. Russians are not as supportive of this action. “This brand of politics leads to war.” This is a “war on democracy.” The threat is a “successful democracy on Putin’s border.”
- Putin made an early morning address.
- Trump actively undercut NATO.
- SWIFT system. Ben Rhodes: The two things that you can detect reticence about are taking off SWIFT and energy exports. The latter because affects prices. Sometimes when scenario unfolds and you experience the reality, the videos and have to change your mind about what is acceptable.
- Ben Rhodes: Putin is “increasingly isolated” “We are in a whole new world now.”
- Videos of helicopters coming in from Crimea.
- MSNBC: Tanks are coming in from Belarus.
- MSNBC: Videos of traffic leaving Kyiv.
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What I know this morning: (12:56 AM)
- A full-scale invasion is being launched in Ukraine.
- MSNBC is reporting cruise missile strikes.
- Ukraine World (UW) is reporting that Ukraine closed its airspace.
- UW is reporting shelling at Vasylkiv airport near Kyiv.
- MSNBC is reporting that people are leaving Kyiv.
- Blasts awoke people in the capital city.
- MSNBC is reporting that troops are coming across the border.
- MSNBC: Belarus is being used as a staging ground. Note: In the past, Belarus was adamant that they would not be used as a staging ground for any aggression.
- MSNBC reporter predicting “disaster” for Putin.
Other reports from Ukraine World
- Missiles attacking critical military infrastructure across Ukraine.
- Kyiv under missile attack reported by Ukraine’s interior ministry.
- Flights have been suspended
- Putin announced a “special military operation” against Ukraine.
- Putin called on the Ukrainian army to immediately give up.
- Putin said that Russia intends to “denazify” Ukraine.
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Tensions have escalated sharply after Vladimir Putin ordered troops into east Ukraine. What might happen next?
— Read on www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/the-ukraine-russia-crisis-explained-a-complete-visual-guide -
The Biden administration is expected to announce on Wednesday that it will allow sanctions to move forward on the company in charge of building Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, after blocking such sanctions last year using a national security waiver.
— Read on www.cnn.com/2022/02/23/politics/white-house-russia-sanctions/index.html -
Tuesday, 22 February 2022
There was a verdict in the federal hate crimes trial of the three men who hunted down and shot Ahmaud Arbery in Brunswick, Georgia. The three men were convicted of all charges. This trial followed a state trial where the men were convicted of murdering Arbery. Neither trial would have taken place had it not been for Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones, Ahmaud Arbery’s mother.
After Mr. Arbery was killed in 2020, county officials at all levels attempted to block prosecution of the case which involved a former police officer and investigator for the DA’s office. The DA was one of the first people Greg McMichaels phoned after the killing. It is almost certain that no arrests would have even been made in the case had it not been for a video of the shooting released by Greg McMichaels.
The defense attorney for Greg McMichaels argued in the hate crimes trial that the release of the video proved that the three men didn’t have “consciousness of guilt.” What it in fact proved was that Greg McMichaels and the other two men were such blind racists they actually thought the video would exonerate them. As one of the witnesses for the men said during the state trial, it didn’t work out like they had intended.
When the video of the killing went viral, the state of Georgia stepped in and took the case out of the hands of Glynn County law enforcement officials. A prosecutor for the State of Georgia won the case not because of the local case, but despite it.
At every step of the way, Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones was pushing and advocating and arguing. It is thanks to her that the case was ever prosecuted.
Then, after winning at the state level, the Department of Justice was to try the three men for perpetrating a hate crime, for murdering Mr. Arbery because he was black. But, secretly, behind the back of the Arbery family, federal prosecutors made a plea deal with the three defendants. The plea deal would have allowed them to spend their sentences in a federal prison instead of the hell hole of state incarceration.
Again, Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones has to plead, argue, advocate, and in her own words “beg” for the plea agreement to be thrown out. Even after hearing her plead in court with the judge, prosecutors continued with their pressure on the judge to accept the plea agreement. But, Ms. Cooper-Jones prevailed. The judge set the date for the trial.
In the previous state trial, a tactical decision was made to leave any discussion of race out of the case. The hateful social media and personal statements of the three men were not entered into evidence. By securing a trial, however, this evidence was brought out in front of the public and another jury. The men were convicted again, in the deep South, where some people at least understand at a gut level the violence and cruelty and pain such language involves.
But, even after having to fight for two years for the simple dignity of a trial for her son’s killers, Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones came out of the courtroom thinking about others, others who had not received justice. Standing in front of the Court House, she blasted the DOJ and their prosecutors who deceived her, tried to make a plea deal behind her back and even after hearing her pleas, continued to ignore her. She named names. She was not afraid to remind people just how hard it had been to secure these convictions. And, she was fighting for other families, other families who had been denied justice.
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The Russian president sees the world through the lens of maskirovka and provokatsiia.
— Read on www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-invasion-maskirovka-provokatsiia/622874/ -
Address by the President of the Russian Federation • President of Russia
— Read on en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67828
