Law, Power, and Justice

Ukraine Update:

February 24, 2022
1:50 AM

Blog: 1:50 AM
- There are reports of tanks coming across the border into Ukraine from Belarus. Malcolm Nance, who was in Ukraine, reported that the Russians had divided their forces into three strike divisions in Belarus north of Kyiv.
- There is a major road coming South from Homeil in Belarus, another less direct route from Brest.
- “It feels like the system is breaking down.” McFaul talking about the post-WWII world.
- According to NDTV, Putin gave a “surprise statement” shortly before 6 AM. He called on Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms and justified the invasion with claims of “genocide” in Eastern Ukraine.
- Attacks from north, east and south, reported by CNN
- Russian troops have landed in Odessa.
- Ukraine World (UW) is reporting crossing of the border in the north at Luhansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv. Massive shelling followed by assault with tanks.
- UW reporting two villages in Luhansk taken by Russia.
- CNN, most Ukrainian troops are in the East.
- Putin warned the rest of the world this morning, not to get involved.
- MSNBC. Putin spoke at 5:45 AM. The message is being played in Russia. Russian TV is using words like “liberation.” They are reassuring the Russian public that citizens are not being hurt. They are selling the Nazi Ukrainian government. The war declaration is being played over rand over on Russian state TV.
- Reporter in Moscow, MSNBC, “people are in shock.”
- MSNBC: Casualties reported, 6 dead and injured.
- Navalny on trial this week in Russia.
- Katy Tur: “Putin sounds unhinged.” Covid, “self-isolation”. Reporter Matt Bodner: “Isolation is something we noticed.” In televised meeting with staff, sitting apart from them. Saw him slap down one of the people (rhetorically). Note: Again they ignore the fact that there is a video of Putin doing exactly this years ago.
- Jack Jacobs: Reporting dead and wounded in Odessa. Russians determining weak points and deciding where to attack next. They are waiting to see what the West will do. Waiting to see what the West will do about SWIFT. (Note: There were European reports that Biden had taken this off the table.) Once you cut them off (from SWIFT) and they continue, what do you do? This should be the last resort. (Note: Strange argument.) Once you do SWIFT, there is no follow up plan. Jacobs now talking about “rationality” of Putin.
- Jacobs: Putin’s strongest allies, most important constituency, are the oligarchs, his inner circle.
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Ukraine: The Worst Case Scenario

February 24, 2022
1:00 AM (8:00 AM in Ukraine)
- Putin is trying to bring down the government of Ukraine.
- Financial markets are going to react to this.
- Explosions in many larger cities, at least three.
- People are leaving Kyiv.
- Bomb shelters are being opened in Ukraine.
- Cruise and other missiles struck around Kyiv.
- People are voluntarily trying to evacuate from Kyiv leading to traffic jams.
- Peter Baker: Putin feels he has a historical mission.
- McFaul interviewed on MSNBC: If Ukraine ran out of weapons it would be disastrous. McFaul has been recommending stronger sanctions and more military assistance for a while. Calling for massive sanctions, not ratcheting up sanctions, not targeted sanctions.
- Zelensky has tweeted asking for immediate sanctions, financial support, and to close the air space.
- There are ships in the sea of Azov. (If you don’t have a map, get one).
- McFaul: Stop framing Putin as a rational actor who wants to negotiate. “tonight there is good and evil in the world.” For Putin this will be a “catastrophic mistake.” (Note: Not if we don’t make it one).
- McFaul: “We are in the first day of a major war.” When wars start, everybody is always thinking: We’ll all be home by Christmas.
- McFaul has an article in the Journal of Democracy article taking on the arguments that this is all NATO’s fault.
- McFaul: Putin hasn’t always said that NATO expansion was a threat to Russia.
- McFaul: Putin was calling Ukrainian independence a “neo-nazi coup” provoked by the Americans.
- Velshi: Why didn’t Ukraine join NATO sooner? McFaul: Ukraine didn’t want to have conflict with Russia and therefore didn’t join NATO sooner. It was only after 2014 when Russia attacked them that the conversation about NATO started.
- Ukrainian Ambassador to UN: “There is no purgatory for war criminals, they go straight to hell.”
- When I woke up my Twitter feed said that Putin had declared war on Ukraine. He evidently gave some speech earlier.
- McFaul: Putin was warning by reminding people that Russia was a “nuclear power.”
- McFaul: “He feels really unhinged to me.” Talking about Putin.
- I hear this “Putin is not a rational actor,” line spread from network to network from reporter to reporter. Yamiche Alcindor, Michael McFaul, Don Lemon…to mention only a few.
- Images of blasts near Kyiv on CNN. Huge.
- Wesley Clark (CNN): “All of us saw this coming.” We don’t know what has been hit because Ukrainians don’t want to tell that. Putin will use a nuclear weapon to “frighten off NATO.” This aggression can’t be answered by just “standing aside.”
- MSNBC: Ben Rhodes: Crimea was relatively bloodless. Russians are not as supportive of this action. “This brand of politics leads to war.” This is a “war on democracy.” The threat is a “successful democracy on Putin’s border.”
- Putin made an early morning address.
- Trump actively undercut NATO.
- SWIFT system. Ben Rhodes: The two things that you can detect reticence about are taking off SWIFT and energy exports. The latter because affects prices. Sometimes when scenario unfolds and you experience the reality, the videos and have to change your mind about what is acceptable.
- Ben Rhodes: Putin is “increasingly isolated” “We are in a whole new world now.”
- Videos of helicopters coming in from Crimea.
- MSNBC: Tanks are coming in from Belarus.
- MSNBC: Videos of traffic leaving Kyiv.
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Ukraine: I’m Up

February 24, 2022
What I know this morning: (12:56 AM)
- A full-scale invasion is being launched in Ukraine.
- MSNBC is reporting cruise missile strikes.
- Ukraine World (UW) is reporting that Ukraine closed its airspace.
- UW is reporting shelling at Vasylkiv airport near Kyiv.
- MSNBC is reporting that people are leaving Kyiv.
- Blasts awoke people in the capital city.
- MSNBC is reporting that troops are coming across the border.
- MSNBC: Belarus is being used as a staging ground. Note: In the past, Belarus was adamant that they would not be used as a staging ground for any aggression.
- MSNBC reporter predicting “disaster” for Putin.
Other reports from Ukraine World
- Missiles attacking critical military infrastructure across Ukraine.
- Kyiv under missile attack reported by Ukraine’s interior ministry.
- Flights have been suspended
- Putin announced a “special military operation” against Ukraine.
- Putin called on the Ukrainian army to immediately give up.
- Putin said that Russia intends to “denazify” Ukraine.
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The Ukraine-Russia crisis explained: a complete visual guide | Ukraine | The Guardian

February 23, 2022
Tensions have escalated sharply after Vladimir Putin ordered troops into east Ukraine. What might happen next?
— Read on www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/the-ukraine-russia-crisis-explained-a-complete-visual-guide
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Biden expected to allow sanctions on company behind Nord Stream pipeline to go into effect – CNNPolitics

February 23, 2022
The Biden administration is expected to announce on Wednesday that it will allow sanctions to move forward on the company in charge of building Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, after blocking such sanctions last year using a national security waiver.
— Read on www.cnn.com/2022/02/23/politics/white-house-russia-sanctions/index.html
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Ahmaud Arbery’s Mother

February 22, 2022
Tuesday, 22 February 2022

There was a verdict in the federal hate crimes trial of the three men who hunted down and shot Ahmaud Arbery in Brunswick, Georgia. The three men were convicted of all charges. This trial followed a state trial where the men were convicted of murdering Arbery. Neither trial would have taken place had it not been for Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones, Ahmaud Arbery’s mother.

After Mr. Arbery was killed in 2020, county officials at all levels attempted to block prosecution of the case which involved a former police officer and investigator for the DA’s office. The DA was one of the first people Greg McMichaels phoned after the killing. It is almost certain that no arrests would have even been made in the case had it not been for a video of the shooting released by Greg McMichaels.

The defense attorney for Greg McMichaels argued in the hate crimes trial that the release of the video proved that the three men didn’t have “consciousness of guilt.” What it in fact proved was that Greg McMichaels and the other two men were such blind racists they actually thought the video would exonerate them. As one of the witnesses for the men said during the state trial, it didn’t work out like they had intended.

When the video of the killing went viral, the state of Georgia stepped in and took the case out of the hands of Glynn County law enforcement officials. A prosecutor for the State of Georgia won the case not because of the local case, but despite it.

At every step of the way, Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones was pushing and advocating and arguing. It is thanks to her that the case was ever prosecuted.

Then, after winning at the state level, the Department of Justice was to try the three men for perpetrating a hate crime, for murdering Mr. Arbery because he was black. But, secretly, behind the back of the Arbery family, federal prosecutors made a plea deal with the three defendants. The plea deal would have allowed them to spend their sentences in a federal prison instead of the hell hole of state incarceration.

Again, Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones has to plead, argue, advocate, and in her own words “beg” for the plea agreement to be thrown out. Even after hearing her plead in court with the judge, prosecutors continued with their pressure on the judge to accept the plea agreement. But, Ms. Cooper-Jones prevailed. The judge set the date for the trial.

In the previous state trial, a tactical decision was made to leave any discussion of race out of the case. The hateful social media and personal statements of the three men were not entered into evidence. By securing a trial, however, this evidence was brought out in front of the public and another jury. The men were convicted again, in the deep South, where some people at least understand at a gut level the violence and cruelty and pain such language involves.

But, even after having to fight for two years for the simple dignity of a trial for her son’s killers, Ms. Wanda Cooper-Jones came out of the courtroom thinking about others, others who had not received justice. Standing in front of the Court House, she blasted the DOJ and their prosecutors who deceived her, tried to make a plea deal behind her back and even after hearing her pleas, continued to ignore her. She named names. She was not afraid to remind people just how hard it had been to secure these convictions. And, she was fighting for other families, other families who had been denied justice.
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Ukrainian Jews.

February 21, 2022
www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/world/europe/ukraine-jews-russia-evacuations.html
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How Putin Makes His Enemies Do All the Work – The Atlantic

February 21, 2022
The Russian president sees the world through the lens of maskirovka and provokatsiia.
— Read on www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-invasion-maskirovka-provokatsiia/622874/
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Address by the President of the Russian Federation • President of Russia

February 21, 2022
Address by the President of the Russian Federation • President of Russia
— Read on en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/67828
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Ukraine: Sanctions

February 20, 2022
2/20/22

Weeks ago, the German press was reporting that Biden had taken off the table what was said to be one of the most effective sanctions against Russia, i.e., removing Russia from the SWIFT system. Reuters reported the German article but did not independently confirm the story. Then, a whole group of articles started to appear in the Western press about how removing Russia from SWIFT could backfire on Western economies.

On Friday, U.S. officials admitted that it was unlikely that any sanctions package would include removal of Russia from the SWIFT system. The corporate media (to my knowledge) has yet to ask a government official what the purpose was of taking SWIFT off the table at a time when President Zelensky is begging for sanctions.

The Journal, a podcast of the Wall Street Journal, is reporting that the “crippling sanctions” threatened by the Biden administration are likely not to be effective. The reason is simple. The only sanctions that will seriously hurt Russia are those involving cutting off revenues from gas and oil. As the commentator notes, this is unlikely to happen.

Germany needs Russian gas. Germany is trying to transition off both coal and nuclear. Some experts don’t think Germany is even able to do without Russian gas. The pipeline gave Germany access to cheap gas for the first time. Before, they were buying more expensive gas from other pipelines. Now, Germany is Russia’s biggest customer.

Even though Biden blithely announced that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. would stop Nordstream 2, it is unclear that he can do that.
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Ukraine crisis: Criss-crossing the country with Zelensky – BBC News. “We shouldn’t have to beg.”

February 20, 2022
We shouldn’t have to beg; this is about your investment in European security,” Volodymyr Zelensky told the Munich conference crowd, reminding them that Ukraine had acted as a “shield” for Europe, “holding back one of the biggest armies in the world”.
— Read on www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60451034
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Ukraine: The Wagner Group

February 19, 2022
Wagner Group

2/19/22 7:30 PM

The first time I remember being aware of the Wagner Group was late last year when I was reading about the criticisms of Ukraine’s president Zelensky. There were some who were not happy with the way a situation worked out which involved mercenaries from the Wagner group who were thought to have been tricked into flying over Ukrainian air space. The purpose, evidently, was to force a landing of the plane they were in and arrest them for crimes they had committed in Ukraine’s separatist territories. The plan went terribly wrong and there were contradicting stories about whose fault it was.

Zelensky stated that he would have never put people on the plane at risk by forcing a landing while flying over Ukraine and denied responsibility. Others claimed that Zelensky had put a stop to the operation and caused chaos. The mercenaries were arrested in Belarus and eventually returned to Russia.

This article from Bellingcat gives a detailed account of the operation.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2021/11/17/inside-wagnergate-ukraines-brazen-sting-operation-to-snare-russian-mercenaries/

The Waner Group is a Russian paramiitary organization, PMC, or Private Military Company. Sometimes compared to Eric Prince’s Blackwater, its contractors have reportedly taken part in various conflicts (Syrian civil war on the side of the Syrian government, 2014-2015 war in Donbas aiding the separatists) and other conflicts.

The NYT has characterized the Warner Group as a unit of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) and the GRU in disguise, used in government sponsored efforts when deniability is needed. It’s forces are trained on MOD installations.

The Warner Group is believed to be owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin a businessman close to Putin. The Wagner Group itself first showed up in 2014, in the Luhansk region of Ukraine. The company’s name comes from the man thought to be its founder, Utkin, and his own call sign (“Wagner”), which he allegedly chose due to his passion for the Third Reich.

The organization is said to be registered in Argentina, but has offices in Saint Petersburg and Hong Kong.

New recruits are cut off from all social media and prevented from taking photos , etc. during training. They are required to sign a 10-year confidentiality agreement.

According to the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) there are Ukrainian nationals working for Wagner, around 40, but the other 95% of Wagner contractors are Russian.

Prigozhin was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2016 for involvement in Ukraine conflict. In 2017, the Wagner Group itself was sanctioned. There were further sanctions in 2018 and 2020. Prigozhin was also sanctioned by the EU and the UK in 2020. In December 2021, the EU imposed sanctions against the Wagner Group and eight individuals and three entities connected with it, for committing “serious human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings, or in destabilising activities in some of the countries they operate in, including Libya, Syria, Ukraine (Donbas) and the Central African Republic.”

The following is from Wikipedia:

“Following the deployment of its contractors between 2017 and 2019, to Sudan,[20] the Central African Republic,[21] Madagascar,[96] Libya[27] and Mozambique,[30] the Wagner Group had offices in 20 African countries, including Eswatini, Lesotho and Botswana, by the end of 2019. Early in 2020, Erik Prince, founder of the Blackwater private military company, sought to provide military services to the Wagner Group in its operations in Libya and Mozambique, according to The Intercept.[98] By March 2021, Wagner PMCs were reportedly also deployed in Zimbabwe, Angola, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, and possibly the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Private military organizations are not allowed to operate legally in Russia.

Further Reading

• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/10/marat-gabidullin-russian-mercenary-wagner
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Ukraine: Not Good News, the Wager Group

February 19, 2022
Ukraine Update: 1:40 PM

From Ukraine World

• Ukraine military intelligence has confirmed that Russia’s Wagner (mercenary) troops have arrived in Donetsk. This is very bad news. They are specialists at terrorist attacks, blowing up residential buildings, with the intention of blaming Kyiv.

From other sources:
- Reporter Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) posted that China’s foreign minister has stated that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of every country should be safeguarded.” “Ukraine is no exception.”
- Unconfirmed tweet (UT): Ukraine has been the leading supplier of military technologies to China.
- Unconfirmed tweet (UT): China has facilitated a lot of infrastructure in Ukraine.
- UT: “…this doesn’t mean BJ won’t back UR assertions that US-led encirclement justifies action.”
- UT: Rest of statement includes: “The Minsk Agreement is the only way out in resolving the Ukraine issue, and it should not be a frontline for rivalry among major powers.”
- UT: “…this is a bargain: “Let China control the South China Sea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, and China backs the west against Russia over Ukraine.”
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Escalation Not Evacuation: Recent Developments of the Russian Military Threat Against Ukraine | UACRISIS.ORG

February 19, 2022
The heightened tensions regarding Russian military buildup on Ukrainian borders, threatening with renewed large-scale invasion, have just reached their | Uacrisis.org
— Read on uacrisis.org/en/escalation-not-evacuation
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Escalation in Donbas continues as Russian proxy forces fire on Ukrainian positions / The New Voice of Ukraine

February 19, 2022
Russian proxy forces fired at Ukrainian positions 20 times in the morning of Feb. 18
— Read on english.nv.ua/nation/escalation-in-donbas-continues-as-russian-proxy-forces-fire-on-ukrainian-positions-50217896.html
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