Law, Power, and Justice

Monday 15 May 2023

Turkey

Foreign Affairs

Turkey’s Resilient Autocrat: How the Levers of State—and Powerful Friends—Could Help Erdogan Win His Toughest Election (foreignaffairs.com)

Why Erdogan is in trouble in this election

• The response of the Erdogan government to the recent earthquake was “feckless and chaotic.”
• His economic policies have caused runaway inflation (nearly 100%).
• The Turkish currency has lost over 450% of its value in the last five years.
• After two decades, people are fed up with his “strong-arm” rule.
• Six opposition parties have been organized together by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Chair of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

How Erdogan is attempting to consolidate control:

• He has broad influence over the Turkish media.
• He has limited access to social media that does not have offices in Turkey.  (Note: Twitter has evidently agreed to censor some tweets in response to pressure from Erdogan.)
• The few independent TV networks have been fined and taken off the air for days if they run content outside government approved limits.
• He has limited public debate about the earthquake.
• Stories about corruption are censored as are stories about human rights abuses, the jailing of journalists and politicians. 
• Erdogan targets opposition leaders with false accusations. 
• He has established ties with Putin and he Saudi Prince MBS.
• Russia financed a new nuclear plant in Turkey.
• A third-party candidate has entered the race.  He is a defector from the opposition alliance, Muharrem Ince.  The government has promoted his campaign.
• “a government reform to the way Parliament apportions seats” could give Erdogan and his party (AKP) a considerable advantage.  (Like US Republicans he has rigged the voting system for Parliament).
• A “me or chaos” media strategy used by Erdogan has worked in the past.
• Even forcing a run-off would be considered a win by Erdogan.
• (Note: He now appears to have done this).
• Erdogan has power over the corporate sector.
• Pro-Erdogan businesses now control nearly 90% of the Turkish media.
• A crack down on key civil society activists and opposition politicians.
• “By gaining broad influence over the judiciary, government bureaucracy, and the national media, these leaders have often been able to engineer favorable electoral outcomes regardless of the relative strength of the opposition. Erdogan’s resilience shows how difficult it can be to unseat an illiberal leader in an electoral contest, even one who enjoys little support.”
• “By changing the constitution to an executive-style presidency, he essentially styled himself as Turkey’s new sultan, becoming head of state, head of government, head of the ruling party, head of the national police, and head of the military. In the process, he also took more direct control over the economy, and the central bank lost its independence, making foreign investors skittish.”
• Erdogan is convinced that if he can force a run-off, he can win on May 28.

Notes:

• “If Kilicdaroglu wins the presidency, Ankara would align more closely with the transatlantic community, especially Europe. Kilicdaroglu has also pledged to reembrace economic orthodoxy and central bank independence. All these developments would likely trigger a new inflow of foreign capital, helping restart economic growth.”

• If Erdogan wins “… any remaining independent institutions, including courts that have not yet fallen into his grasp, think tanks, universities, news outlets, and the foreign ministry, are likely to completely lose their autonomy, with important ramifications for not only Turkey’s political system but also its foreign policy. To Putin’s great delight, although Turkey would probably remain in NATO, a reelected Erdogan could act more assertively as a spoiler, undermining alliance unity alongside Orban in Hungary.”

• “Erdogan invented populist authoritarianism in the early twenty-first century, and even as this model has since been copied by leaders elsewhere—including former U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro—Erdogan remains its best practitioner. And unlike most of his counterparts, he has so far proved impossible to vote out of power.”

The Independent

https://www.independent.co.ug/turkeys-democratic-resilience/ “The country’s slide towards full-blown authoritarianism is nearly complete. Erdoğan has been in power for more than 20 years – much longer than either Trump or Bolsonaro was – and has used this time to shape the state in his own image.