Law, Power, and Justice

The Telegraph: Ukraine: The Latest Podcast 6/24/23

• Kadyrov issued a statement criticizing Prigozhin.  “military rebellion” “destabilizing” “treacherous march”.  Kadyrov sides completely with Putin.
• Called president of Belarus and Kazakhstan.  Lukashenko is conveniently away in turkey.  (Note: We saw reports that he was flying out of Belarus toward Turkey earlier in the day.)  President of Kazakhstan said that this was an internal matter.
• Latvia has closed roads to Russia.
• Analysis:
• First actual physical challenge to Putin’s authority.  It’s a clear attempt to mount a coup.  Breaks so many assumptions about Russia.  Always was an assumption that antics from Prigozhin was coordinated, convenient for Putin.  Keep other guys in line. 
• Yesterday, people were still convincing themselves that Prigozhin couldn’t do this without Putin’s approval. 
• Prigozhin has benefited from Putin’s patronage for two decades.  They are from the same city.   Prigozhin was getting all these state contracts from Putin.  He was not a prominent figure.  He understood how to make himself useful to the Kremlin.
• 2014 convinced Putin to let him establish the Wagner group.  Went on to fight in the Donbas, Syria, Libya.  Loyal.  Emerged from the shadows when the Ukraine attack happened.  He’s a vain man.  Intends to use the war as a platform.  Personal ambition is one reason.  Political ambitions.  Something cracked around the battle of Bakhmut.
• Criticisms became more acute.  His videos, piles and piles of dead bodies, atrocious bloodshed.  Seems an act of desperation.  Perhaps mental illness.
• Odds are stacked against Prigozhin succeeding.  The Kremlin is assumed to be “coup proof.”  Competing agencies, jealous of each other.  The National Guard was meant to be an “anti-coup” force.  FSB, Armed forces. Personal protection force.  Kadyrov, private army.  Power brokers.
• Have their eyes on one another.  Nipped any attempt to change in the bud.
• Resources have been exhausted in Ukraine.
• Last night Prigozhin said “this is not a coup.”
• The head of the Russian Orthodox Church has stated its support for Putin.  So had head of Crimea, other regions.
• Don’t see where the collapse of morale is going to come from.
• 1917, soldiers came back from the front.  Launched coup.  Suspect this one will not work.
• (Note: Pushkin story about revolt against Catherine the Great.)
• Suspect Prigozhin will end up dead.
• More Analysis
• “Internal dispute” Prigozhin has no elite base.  He is an outsider. Unlikely a popular uprising and no army participation.  In 1917 people in Russia were starving.  Civil unrest was common.  Population is treating this with “bemusement.”
• Dangers moment for Putin.  The tension is not there among the population.  If Russia had been truly cut off by the sanctions (as they could have been) this would be a moment where regime change could be possible.  FAILURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO SUPPORT UKRAINS. (Note: I could not agree more).
• Even if Prigozhin fails, he will have pointed out the frustration with the way this war has been carried out. It was supposed to be an “operation” lasting only a few days.
• If Prigozhin is killed, these frustrations will not go away, possibly be picked up by a political opposition figure.  (See 1917 revolution, note look up rebellion that brought Trotsky to power)
•  We are likely to see a clamp down in Russia.  Blindsided by trying to eliminate liberal opposition, Russia did not see the potential for an attack from the extremist faction who wanted a larger and more aggressive war.
• Private armies can have a destabilizing effect.  Ancient Rome, modern Sudan. 
• The timing is terrible for Putin.  He had gained control of the narrative after a slower than expected counter-offensive by the Ukrainians.
• Reflect on Bakhmut.  The draining of resources in the fight for Bakhmut was very important.  (Note: The Americans were critical of this).  “bleeding Wagner dry there”  Turned Prigozhin against Putin.  The international implication are also great.  Wagner is not only a force in Russia and Ukraine.  (Note: reported this morning, Wagner gets half a billion dollars annually from efforts in the Central African Republic alone).  The West should take advantage of this and try to move into the regions where Wagner is active.
• This is a huge moment.
• Putin has an off ramp in the war in Ukraine.  He can say he was betrayed at home and has to pull out.  Cracks are beginning to show.