Law, Power, and Justice

Notes from Ukraine: The Latest Podcast about the Russian Coup

Interview with Russian correspondent, Nataliya Vasilyeva. 

• @Nat_Vasilyeva on Twitter
• Rostov is a holiday site for Russians.
• The war has come to their town, to Russia.
• The residents feel that the Kremlin could and would take out Prigozhin if they wanted to and they would not hesitate to harm the citizens of Rostov to do that.
• Wagner’s presence is concentrated in the center.
• They have been reported to be laying land mines on the outskirts of the city.
• Putin’s speech was “underwhelming.”
• It was thought he would declare martial law.
• He didn’t announce any steps to stop the coup.
• Russian TV is struggling to find a way to cover this.  One chose matter of fact coverage of road closings.  Trying to portray life as normal.
• Helicopters are firing on Wagner troops moving toward Moscow.
• Putin has never faced this kind of opposition in 23 years.  How many soldiers does Prigozhin have?  All officials have expressed support for Putin, but what are they doing?
• Wagner troops were allowed to roll into Russia.
• Putin is not the man to make compromises.
• Roland Oliphant
• Uncharted territories.  All the rules don’t apply.  Putin looked furious and intending to kill Prigozhin.
• Who knows which way this will go?  Somebody is going to be eliminated.
• James Kilner (In Georgia)
• Shocked.  I am shocked.  All the assumptions have been ripped up.  I thought Prigozhin was playing by the rules.  He wanted more. 
• (Note: Read his article in the Telegraph)
• You could feel the tension building up with Prigozhin’s repeated statements.  Especially when he started talking about the lie about going into the war. 
• Wagner sources started saying “take up arms” on media.
• It took Putin about 12 hours to say anything.  Huge “leadership gap.”  Taken by surprise.  Didn’t know what to do. He is known as a “ditherer.”  On Kremlin video system put out 6 minutes.  He looked “absolutely shattered” “odd speech” 1917 revolution taking about.  Tried to rally people.  Talking about the evil Nato.  Never mentioned Prigozhin.  Leader who had lost his grip.  The Russian people have already asked to give up so much with this war.
• It’s gone so badly, and they see him being openly challenged.  Once occurs, Putin is weakened.
• Dominic Nicholls @DomNicholls on Twitter.
• Speaking on Twitter: Advisor to Zelensky
• Split of the elites is obvious.  Somebody will loose with a “fatal ending.” 
• Everything is just beginning.
• U.S. reports Biden has been briefed. 
• Former CIA, Steve Hall.  This is a “different league.”  Might  look like a Putin tactic, but this is different. 
• People saying everything hinges on how quickly Putin can take control.  This seems out of control.  Pirgozhin is not a Kremlin insider.
• What will the power brokers do?  Middle ranking military? 
• Gun battles on Russian territory are not what the Russian population has been led to expect.
• Final Thoughts
• Effect on war in Ukraine?  Too early to tell.  No reporting from the Ukrainian side.  Very bad news for the Russians.
• Rhetoric of Prigozhin.  Questioning the actual purpose of the war.  Accusations of stealing everything.  I wonder whether he might seek to end the war if he is successful.  I don’t know.
• James:
• Prigozhin has great rapport with his soldiers.  Report from RMD saying that Ukrainians had stepped up their attacks.
• Nicholls: Watch the border where the incursions into Russia occurred in the past.  Freedom of Russia legions.  Will Russian military open fire on Wagner.  Belarus, internal opposition.  Lukashenko is out of town in Turkey.
• Kilner: another long night.  “Everything is on the table.”  Expects the move on Moscow to happen (note: it has evidently been stopped).  Putin called his allies and Kazakhstan told him that it was an “internal problem.”
• Roland: Nothing can be predicted.  1917, Lenin took advantage and took power.  Lenin said: Power is lying in the streets waiting for somebody to pick it up.  That’s what Prigozhin thinks.  Who’s going to stop us?  Putin is not going to leave the Kremlin until he dies.  The transfer of power is going to be bloody.