Law, Power, and Justice

Saturday 24 June 2023

MSNBC 10:27

• Barry McCaffrey said that Prigozhin was unlikely to carry off this plan unless he had people inside the Russian security services.
• He may well have had, and they failed to come to his aid.

Notes:

• Nobody seems to fully understand what happened in Russia today.
• The best theory I have heard came from my partner who was once at West Point.  He pointed out the fact that the Russians had moved their most capable fighting forces north inside Russia almost parallel to Kyiv without appearing to do so for external threat.
• If Belarus attacked from the North, Russia could bring to life a two-pronged attack on Kyiv.
• This would explain why Wagner was allowed to cross the Russian border even after border guards had been told not to allow them in.
• It would explain why they were able to take over the military headquarters in Rostov on Don without opposition.  And, why they were allowed to proceed North on M5 with little opposition.
• It makes no sense that Prigozhin would separate himself from his troops.  Someone earlier this morning noted that if he were to do so, he was “toast.”
• But, evidently Prigozhin has agreed to go and is reported to have gone to Belarus.  Why?
• If Prigozhin were to lead the attack on Kyiv from the North, Lukashenko is conveniently out of town in Turkey.  Lukashenko could claim he knew nothing about it.
• But, we don’t know.
• The consensus seems to be that Putin looks very weak after threatening to fight Prigozhin and punish him and then a few hours later making an agreement with him to drop all charges.
• He was reported to look “shaken” during his brief address to the nation earlier in the day.

It has been a good day:

• An exciting news story with international significance that developed during an entire day and promises to go on through the night.  I spent almost all day (when I was not cooking Sicilian chicken soup, and baked sweet potatoes) taking notes and posting.  It’s a shame we don’t have good news channels anymore.  Podcasts are the most informative source of information.
• I received my copy of the novel “Laura” the first novel in our Fall “Novel to Classic Movie” series.  I had already started reading “Leave Her to Heaven” made into a 1943 film with Gene Tierney.  The theme of the series is “Crime and Gene Tierney.”  I think it is going to be a great series.
• I got my new copy of Foreign Affairs.
• I have a house full of formerly feral cats.
• I started mentally writing a new play about three women, over 70, meeting at a beach house and talking about their shared 50 year history.  I was thinking of stealing the title from a section of Keith Olbermann’s podcast: “Things I Promised Never to Talk About.”
• I felt reasonably good physically.  I have been taking an antibiotic that makes me sick for three months trying to get rid of a sinus infection so I can have parathyroid surgery.  Some days are reasonable, others are miserable.
• But today has been a good day. 

Night to everyone who is not a Republican or a Republican enabler.