Law, Power, and Justice

Thursday 29 June 2023 PM

Ukraine Update

Ukraine: The Latest Podcast Notes

Kramatorsk Pizza

• Death toll in the attack on the Pizza Restaurant in Kramatorsk is now 12 including two young women around 15 who were twins.
• The Russians have tried to make this sound like an attack on a military installation because soldiers eat there.
• This is not a military installation.
• In Kramatorsk, an individual has been taken into custody for assisting the Russians geolocate the Pizza Restaurant.  He is believed to be a Russian Agency. He was arrested for treason.

Prigozhin’s Coup

• One of the planes shot down by Wagner in the attempted coup was a valuable part of the Russian war effort.  10 occupants were killed.
• Helicopters were also shot down. 
• These are high-value assets, generally used away from the front lines to keep them safe.  The psychological impact of of losing these troops will affect morale of Russian troops.

International

• Switzerland has blocked giving tanks to Ukraine.  The Swiss government blocked this transfer as “inconsistent” with their neutrality.  In a separate decision weeks ago, it was decided to send tanks to Germany.  This changed.
• In the January Economoist, there is an article about Switzerland and its position of neutrality.  The author characterizes the decision as “naïve or worse.”  Switzerland recently reviewed its neutrality position and decided to keep it in place.
• Non-neutral countries resent Switzerland’s position. 
• There are other countries that have a policy of neutrality.
• (Note: This list incudes Austria, Cambodia, Costa Rica, Finland, Ghana, Ireland, Japan, Liechtenstein, Malta, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Panama, Rwanda, San Marino, Serbia, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Vatical City,
• The author of the article in the Economist said: It’s one thing to be neutral when there’s not a war in Europe.

Francis Dearnley (Reporter)

Ireland

• Ireland has a neutrality position but they have participated in UN peacekeeping efforts.  In terms of Ukraine, there has been a movement in the country to do more.  (Note: There are a great many Ukrainians who fled because of the war living in Ireland.  Ireland took more refugees than almost any other country except Poland.  If I am not mistaken, they have a government stipend as do the people they live with.)
• In another article about Ireland’s neutrality, Sir Michael Fallon has noted the dangers the Ukrainian was presents to Ukraine.  For example, 75% of transatlantic cables pass through Irish sea territory.  Ireland is also vulnerable to Russian interference technologically. There are a lot of tech companies in Ireland.

Prigozhin’s Coup

• Russian General Surovikin, who potentially knew about the Wagner operation ahead of time has not been seen.  There is  speculation that he has been arrested.  He had a close relationship with Prigozhin.  Moscow Times, reported that they had been told Suroinkin had been arrested. 
• (Note:Associated Press is reporting (2:30 PM EST 6/29/23) that he is believed to be detained.  We don’t know where he is being held or if he faces any charges.  He is the deputy commander of the Russian group of forces fighting in Ukraine. 
• Prigozhin spoke positively of Surovikin while criticizing the military brass.  Prigozhin suggested that Surovikin should be appointed the General Staff chief replacing Gerasimov.  Surovikin has not been seen since the start of the coup when he posted a video urging an end to it.
• Publicly Surovikin was calling for an end to the coup, but this act might have been a ruse. 
• Surovikin’s deputy has reportedly been fired from the army.  If true, this supports the argument that Surovikin is out of favor.
• In discussions with an exiled Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, she has said that Lukashenko could betray Prigozhin.  Or, Prigozhin could betray Lukashenko. They are not allies.  (Note: Look for interview)
• The decision to take Prigozhin and Wagner into Belarus, was about personal survival for Lukashenko, according to the activist.  Lukashenko didn’t just act to save Putin’s face.  He took care for his personal survival.  Lukashenko does not want to see chaos within the Russian elite and military.  If Putin goes, it will be Lukashenko next.  (Note: Popular uprising against Lukashenko was put down with Putin’s help.  It was rumored that Putin had a part in provoking this uprising so that he could put Lukashenko in a compromised position.  Putin needed Lukashenko and Belarusian territory to launch the invasion of Ukraine.)
• The Belarusian activist is said to be the legitimate winner of the 2020 election in Belarus.  There were widespread accusations of voter fraud.