Law, Power, and Justice

www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/world/asia/wagner-uprising-china-russia.html

Excerpts

Xi Jinping needs Vladimir Putin to remain in power, and Russia to maintain stability, to help uphold the countries’ shared interests and to keep challenging the United States.

…the Wagner private military group waged an insurrection in Russia that has shaken Mr. Putin’s image of invulnerability. Close watchers of China say that the mutiny, short-lived as it was, could lead Mr. Xi to hedge a close relationship with Russia that had already exposed Beijing to global criticism and threatened some of its interests abroad.

China views Russia as a necessary partner in challenging the global order dominated by the United States. But Mr. Putin’s appetite for risk — seen in his invasion of Ukraine and his reliance on private armies — has forced Beijing to defend its bond with Russia in the face of Western pressure.

Mr. Putin’s decision to grant sanctuary in Belarus to Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the uprising, smacked of a compromise rather than the act of a strongman with consolidated power.

Downsizing the number of troops along the border has allowed China to prepare for the greater potential for conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea or with India,” 

Mr. Xi has also been focused on consolidating power at home. Starting in 2015, the Chinese leader began a major overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army to strengthen his grip over the military by ousting commanders deemed disloyal or corrupt and elevating his allies, in many ways to avoid the questions of loyalty Mr. Putin faces today.

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, its trade with China has hit record highs

Chinese state media has downplayed the significance of what it called the “Wagner incident” and praised Mr. Putin for defusing the crisis

From a security perspective, this war has not enhanced China’s security but has subjected China to more security threats,”