Law, Power, and Justice

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/world/americas/cuba-economy-venezuela-oil.html

By all accounts, Cuba is enduring the worst economic moment in the 67-year history of its communist revolution.

While the island nation has endured periodic episodes of mass migration, food shortages and social unrest in decades past, never before have Cubans experienced such a wholesale collapse of the social safety net that the country’s leaders — starting with Fidel Castro — once prided themselves on.

“I, who was born there, I, who lives there, and I’ll tell you: It’s never been as bad as it is now, because many factors have come together,” said Omar Everleny Pérez, 64, an economist in Havana.

As Trump administration officials congratulate themselves on a triumphant military victory in Venezuela, in which President Nicolás Maduro was seized and the United States claimed control over the South American country, eyes have now turned to Cuba, which enjoyed a warm relationship with the jailed president and which depended on the oil he sent.

To buy gasoline, people have to use an app to sign up for an appointment — at least three weeks in advance. One resident of Havana, the capital, said he joined the queue three months ago, and is now No. 5,052 in line.

The lack of gasoline has led to sporadic trash pickup, which has led to outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses like dengue and chikungunya. Medicines are nearly impossible to find without relatives abroad to send them.

The Cuban government has consistently blamed its economic travails on a decades-long U.S. trade embargo that it claims puts a chokehold on its ability to do business in the world market and earn much-needed cash. Economic sanctions by Republican administrations, which have excluded food and medicine, have made it even harder, government officials say.

“Correcting distortions and reviving the economy is not a slogan,” President Miguel Diaz-Canel said in a speech last month. “It is a concrete battle for stability in everyday life, so that wages are sufficient, so that there is food on the table, so that blackouts end, so that transportation is revived, so that schools, hospitals and basic services function with the quality we deserve.”

The resulting power outages have hurt industries like nickel production, because the factories are off when there’s no power.

Another crucial industry, tourism, has also suffered in recent years. Before the Covid pandemic, four million people a year used to visit Cuba; that number has struggled to get back to two million, economists said.

Experts agree that while U.S. policies have hurt Cuba, poor planning and mismanagement are also to blame for the country’s economic troubles. Efforts to allow private businesses to operate have faltered because of onerous regulations.

The private enterprises, known as MiPyMEs, were legalized in 2021 and have been a lifeline in Cuba, Mr. Pérez and other residents said.

Some private stores resemble supermarket chains in the United States, with everything from Goya brands to Philadelphia cream cheese.

But prices at the private stores are exorbitant, particularly for people who earn salaries in the local currency. A typical monthly pension is 3,000 pesos, less than $7, while a carton of 30 eggs costs 3,600 pesos — $8.

Difficult living conditions helped spur spontaneous mass protests in 2021, but a harsh government crackdown quashed the demonstrations.

Cuba’s financial collapse has fueled an extraordinary exodus — about 2.75 million Cubans have left the country since 2020, according to Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban demographer. While the official population is about 9.7 million people, Mr. Albizu-Campos said 8.25 million would be more accurate.