Law, Power, and Justice

Editor’s note: The three authors recorded a companion podcast for this article for the Russia Contingency, the War on the Rocks members-only show that
— Read on warontherocks.com/2023/08/the-battle-of-hostomel-airport-a-key-moment-in-russias-defeat-in-kyiv/

Excerpts

Russia’s primary objective was to take control of Kyiv within 3-4 days. Vladimir Putin believed that if the Russian military could reach the capital quickly enough, President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government would capitulate, the population could be subdued, and a pro-Russian regime installed before effective resistance could be mobilized or the international community could react. This is undoubtedly why some senior U.S. officials, in the run up to the war, thought that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours.

The operation was intended as a counterpart to extensive subversion and infiltration activities, with expectations in the Russian leadership that much of the Ukrainian resistance could be disabled from within. Moscow assumed it would not have to fight most of the Ukrainian military conventionally, but that once the capital was taken, parts of the military would stand down or could be readily isolated. 

Russian operations have often featured an opening move that involved securing a sizable airbase followed by a rapid buildup of airborne forces, which then attempted to secure the political leadership and set the conditions for a larger land force operation. 

The Russian military strategy was premised on the assumption that the right conditions had been established by intelligence services in Ukraine to enable a lightning assault that would paralyze Ukrainian leadership.

War On the Rocks also has a great podcast.