Law, Power, and Justice

Escalating violence could set Israel and Iran on a collision course.
— Read on www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/will-war-gaza-ignite-middle-east

Despite contradictory explanations for the detonation and Washington’s assessment that Israel was not responsible, countries across the region—including Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—squarely attributed the blast to an Israeli airstrike. Protests broke out in cities throughout the Middle East. As tensions rose, Amman cancelled a summit intended to bring Jordanian, Egyptian, and Palestinian leaders together with U.S. President Joe Biden after his visit to Israel.

In an Al Jazeera interview on October 15, Iran’s foreign minister warned that as long as Israel’s campaign in Gaza continues, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened,” adding that if Israel “decides to enter Gaza, the resistance leaders will turn it into a graveyard of the occupation soldiers.” Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has echoed such threats, stating that there shouldn’t be “any expectation” that Iran will hold back militants if Israel’s attacks on Gaza persist. Some Iran experts interpret these statements as political posturing or as an indication that Iran is distancing itself from the actions of its non-state partners, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militant groups in Iraq. But the possibility of open Israeli-Iranian clashes cannot be ruled out, especially as Iranian leaders’ public support for militia attacks narrow the space for deniability.

there is reason to believe that Iran will continue to exercise some caution. Iranian leaders, beset by declining domestic legitimacy and a struggling economy, are concerned with their own survival and do not want to risk a direct conflict with the United States. Indeed, before this war, Tehran and Washington were focused on diplomacy, striking a limited prisoner exchange agreement that led to the unfreezing of some Iranian assets. 

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