Law, Power, and Justice

Tuesday 21 November 2023

10 AM

CNN is reporting that there is a “tentative” hostage agreement.  I am not sure exactly what that means.  The deal is supposedly in place pending Israeli approval.  I don’t know whether it’s possible that the US leaked the potential deal to put pressure on Israel to accept.

The deal reportedly involves both Hamas and the Israelis releasing prisoners, probably women and children.  Israel would choose the Palestinians to be released. (Note: This makes sense since they think that one of the organizers of the November 7 Hamas attack was a man who had been released from an Israeli prison in a former prisoner swap.)

This would also include a cessation in drone coverage so that Hamas could “consolidate its hostages.”  (Note: We head previously that Hamas was saying they had lost contact with some of their own members who were holding hostages.)

There are reports that some of the hostages are not being held by Hamas but by other groups like Islamic Jihad. 

Humanitarian aid would also be going into the region. 

50 Hamas hostages exchanged for 150 Palestinian prisoners.  The deal could fall apart.

Hagar Chemali, Former Spokesperson for the US Mission to the United Nations, interviewed on CNN

• This may give some room for the US to pressure Israel to take a more targeted approach.
• It is very unlikely that they would be saying that the deal is close if it were not.

Gen. Barry McCaffrey

• We are in this position (to negotiate for hostages) since the IDF has gone in and dominated the “service area” of the cities.
• Once you have a pause and releasing hostages in waves, there will be a lot of pressure on Israel not to restart conflict.
• Hamas will hold on to these hostages as long as possible. 
• Every day they can stop the bombing and the drone supervision, they will spend regrouping.
• We will probably see a lowering of expectations by the Israelis about destroying Hamas.

Hagar

• Biden has called for the PA to take charge of governing Gaza. 
• “He’s notoriously weak, notoriously corrupt.”  (Talking about Abass)
• “He is afraid of his own people.”  “extremely corrupt”
• But, he’s the “only chance” of a government that is not Hamas to take charge of Gaza. 
• He has tried to indicate publicly that he can take charge.  “Bibi’s on his way out.”  Bibi said there would have to be a “different authority.”
• “It takes real courage to make peace.”