Law, Power, and Justice

Sunday 4 February 2024

News Notes: Podcast

Middle East Focus, A Middle East Institute Podcast (2/4/24)

Interview of Charles Lister, Director of MEI’s Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs

• The Islamic State is regaining momentum in Syria. 
• Jordan drone attack by Iran based milia.  This is what analysts have worried about. It is a “game changer.”
• An “explosive drone” essentially followed an American drone that was landing near the base.  It evaded US defenses.  US defense systems have “friend or foe” detection capabilities.  It should have been able to detect a separate aircraft and also know that it was not a friend.
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• The US has a close military relationship with Jordan.  They are spread in part across the Jordanian border with Syria.  It is one of a string of towers.  Some are staffed by Jordanians, others by Americans.
• 22 is a particularly sensitive tower.  Northeast corner of Jordan.  This is a sensitive area bordering Syria and Iraq.  This is an area where Iran has funneled in weapons and logistics from Iraq to Syria.  Also, there has been regime sponsored drug smuggling going through that region.  And, there is ISIS in that region on the Syrian side of the border.
• It is near a much more expansive US military facility on the Syrian side of the border.  It has been there for many years.
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• There have been over 180 Iranian proxy rocket and drone attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria since October 18.  In one hundred days, we have had almost 200 attacks.  This is unprecedented.
• The trigger was Israel’s operation against Hamas in Gaza.  This has triggered a “region-wide” campaign by Iran’s network of proxy actors.  The goal is to bring about a cease fire, but all the actions are also probably intended to push the US out of the Middle East.  Not particularly convinced that a cease fire in Gaza would put a stop to it.
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• The group, Kataib Hezbollah, has been around since 2000 after the US invasion of Iraq.  The invasion is talked about to have provoked a Sunni reaction, led by Al Qaeda in Iraq.  It also triggered Iran backed proxies.  This is one of the first factions mobilized by the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp with the express purpose of targeting American military and pushing them out of Iraq.
• These proxies have become de facto political groups in Iraq. They have associated MPs in Parliament.  They are integrated within the Iraqi security forces.  They have been both military and political actors.
• These groups are putting pressure on the government to get the US out of Iraq.  Talks began in the last few days regarding this.
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• The Biden Administration has come to the conclusion that we must get out of Syria and that plans for the future must include a way to withdraw in an orderly fashion.  But, right now, the US is the only glue holding an effort against ISIS in Syria together.
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• The US has a relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  This relationship was founded by Brett McGurk, National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East.  There would have to be an agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF. 
• Syrian regime has a terrible record against ISIS.  Other governments have made their peace with Assad.
• We must heal our relationship with Turkey. 
• We are talking about a favorable resolution of the issue.
• Tensions between Turky and the SDF.
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• ISIS is holding territory in Syria.  Iraq (and Kurds) have pushed back on ISIS on Iraqi soil. 
• ISIS has invested more in Syria. 
• The regime doesn’t have the military and surveillance capabilities to deal with a desert ISIS movement.  They are threatening oil and gas facilities.  US cannot operate in regime held territories.
• Our presence in the northeast is more important than ever.  We help keep them from spilling over into Iraq.