UKRAINE UPDATE

FRIDAY 21 OCTOBER 2022

UKRAINE UPDATE: Telegram Podcast.

  • A lot of missile strikes today.  Russia is trying to terrorize the civilian population in order to break the Ukrainian will.
  • The dam is under threat.  Ukraine says that Russia has placed mines on the dam. 
  • This would be an environmental and humanitarian disaster.  It would stop the Ukrainian advance. 
  • The Ukrainians are installing cement shelters at bus stops, preparation for long term air war.
  • British Ministry of Defense updates on the movement in Belarus.  This force, a combined Russian and Belarusian force, is not nearly what the Russians have maintained.  They just don’t have the soldiers.  The advantage of the propaganda is to make Ukraine wonder whether they need to take the threat seriously.  If seriously, how seriously and how many troops should be moved.  This is a threat of a new axis to the North.  The aim is to tie down Ukrainian resources.
  • Kakhovka Dam.
  • As conventional warfare goes badly for the Russians, they are resorting to unconventional warfare.  This potential bombing of the Kakhovka Dam is an example of that. 
  • In 1941, as German troops were sweeping through Ukraine, Stalin’s troop blew up a dam to slow down the Nazi advance.  This killed 20,000 to 100,000 civilians.  The potential damage is enormous.
  • If the West were clearer on where the red lines were, this might not be being threatened.
  • Republicans
  • Remark about not giving Ukraine a blank check if the Republicans take over the Congress.  “It’s a lot bigger than Ukraine.”  Quote from Biden.
  • Turkey
  • Turkey has been something of a mediator in this conflict.  Erdogan is passing along the message that Putin is willing to negotiate.  This is another example of Putin sending diplomatic messages through third parties.
  • Western leaders think Russia needs a defeat in this conflict.
  • Winter
  • Cold weather means the risk of freezing to metal surfaces.  It’s more difficult and dangerous operating machinery.  Winter slows everything down.  The Ukrainian counter-attacks are important when you think of the coming winter.
  • The winter will also make worse the European situation and therefore their commitment to Ukraine.
  • Political leaders need to better explain why the situation is so hard and why it is important.
  • Winter is the key strategy for the Russians.  They think the tide both militarily and politically will turn for them with the winter.
  • Incident – Russian military plane letting go a missile near a British plane.
  • This was over the Black Sea.  The reporter thinks that this was a mistake by a Russian pilot and not a Kremlin approved action.  He thinks it is highly unlikely it was a technical mistake.
,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: