Law, Power, and Justice

Notes from Ukraine Podcast, BBC (June 25, 2023)

Panel: Sarah Rainsford and Gabriel Gatehuse

• First of all, we don’t know anything.
• The only source we have to confirm that Prigozhin actually went to Belarus is Peskov, Putin’s spokesman.
• Prigozhin charged that his troops had been attacked by the Russian military.
• He captured Rostov on Don and the Russian army’s main command center in Rostov. 
• After a tense few hours, Lukashenko announced an agreement and Wagner pulled back.
• Putin had said this was treason, and then in hours charges are dropped and Prigozhin was free to leave.
• Prigozhin said his convoys were turning back.
• Analysis
• There is a lot that is theatrical about these events.
• Lukashenko said that after getting Putin’s blessing, he had been negotiating with Prigozhin all day.
• The Kremlin said that Prigozhin was being sent to Belarus as a sort of exile.
• Sourcing of all this information: Our source for Prigozhin going to Belarus is the Kremlin.
• There is video of Prigozhin leaving in Rostov and people cheering for him.  This is the man Putin had labelled a few hours ago a traitor.
• We have no confirmation from Prigozhin where he is.  Prigozhin and also Lukashenko have both gone quiet.
• Why would Prigozhin suddenly agree to this and give up?
• It’s surprising he even survived.
• We don’t know what he has on Putin.
• We don’t know what the agreement is.
• The drop of charges is astounding.  Putin is not one to forgive traitors.  He values loyalty (Note: Like Trump and other autocrats).
• Is he ever going to surface?
• Will he be in charge of Wagner from Belarus? 
• Videos of threatening convoy on its way to Moscow we haven’t seen.
• Why after it going so well, no resistance in capturing the command center in Rostov, why would he suddenly announce that he is going back.
• We have no idea what happens.  It has an air of theatre about it. 
• For example, when Prigozhin announced his rebellion, there was a video of convicts who work in a unit under the Russian military (non-Wagner forces) cheering Prigozhin and saying “We’re with you.”
• A few hours later, there was a video of those same men, standing in the same formation, saying in the same order as before, saying: “You betrayed us. How could you.”  It feels theatre like.
• Either he thought he had more support among the security services than he had, or that he’s lost his mind.
• This is infighting among the elites around Putin.  This is about score settling.
• Someone in the security services might have led Prigozhin to think he had more support than he had.
• Putin promised the people to control this type of elite infighting and he has been shown not to be able to.
• Putin is the big loser.  This pretense that he is this all-powerful leader has been shown not to be true.
• Is this the beginning of the end for Putin?
• The February invasion was the beginning of the end for Putin.  The question was how long it was going to take and what form it is going to take.
• It is possible that he will stay in the same position but be controlled by others and powerless.
• Both Putin and Prigozhin are wounded. 
• Putin promised to punish those who had attacked the motherland. A few hours later, all charges were dropped.  Prigozhin had promised to restore justice and he turned tail and went back.
• Putin is known for being “indecisive.”
• He didn’t resolve the conflict between the Defense Ministry and Prigozhin.  He has shown Russia to be fragile.  (Note: Putin’s governing style is evidently to put people around him against each other.  Perhaps, he just failed to see that this particular competition had gone too far.
• He will spin the narrative, calling on Russians to be united.  Described the war as for Russia’s very survival.
• Prigozhin is in some ways like Navalny.  He cuts through the spin of the Kremlin and tells it like it is.  He put out a video outlining the start of the war.  Nothing to do with fighting Nazis.  It was all about the military officers in the Donbas sealing money, enriching themselves.  People are seeing this in Russia.  He is a dangerous weapon against the propaganda weapon Putin has built up.
• In Rostov, there was cheering and people hugging the Wagner forces.  When Wagner pulled out, the crowds were chanting “shame” and “disgrace” at the police who came.
• Putin will be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life.
• This had to be nipped in the bud quickly.  If forces were pulled out of Ukraine to deal with this, it would have been catastrophic.
• Suspect morale will be damaged.  There will be shake ups in the Ministry of Defense.  There will be some kind of purge of the military and military intelligence.
• There will be questions about who knew what.  Who let Prigozhin just walk into the headquarters in Rostov?
• (Note: As someone pointed out yesterday, this sort of event flushes out those who might not be loyal to Putin and allows Putin to clean house.)
• There is a video of Prigozhin sitting inside the headquarters in Rostov with high level military men.  He criticizes them, and one of them appears to criticize his boss.  Purging of the ranks to come.

Notes on CNN, Fareed Zakaria

• How could Prigozhin trust Putin to abide by the agreement?
• Barriers have come down in Moscow

June 25, 2023

Panel: Anne Applebaum, Masha Geeson

• Geeson: Most coups fail.  Prigozhin marched TO the president.  He never was threatening to depose Putin.  Putin, he thinks, doesn’t have the right information.
• Applebaum: Prigozhin criticized the entire rationale for the invasion.  Prigozhin talked about the corruption and self-interest by the military.  Russian soldiers have been treated badly.  Undermining the rationale for the war.  Prigozhin may be in tune with the members of the military in a way that the leadership is not.
• Why did it all collapse so quickly? Applebaum: People didn’t believe that Prigozhin was going to do this.  He might have wanted his money, his contract was up July 1 and they were going to pay him off.  Maybe somebody didn’t materialize to support him in Moscow.
• Geeson: Prigozhin’s main audience is the military.  Those were the people in the streets in Rostov.  Tapped into a deep well of resentment especially in the military.  There weren’t thousands in the street in Rostov.  Probably became clear to him that he wasn’t going to get to Moscow alive.