Law, Power, and Justice

Monday 26 June 2023

CNN State Department News Conference (2:00 PM)

• We knew there were tensions there between Putin and Prigozhin.
• Americans should not travel to Russia, those there should depart.

John Kirby, Press Conference 2:20

• Upcoming NATO meeting.
• “We would like to see Russia remove all their troops.”
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BBC Podcast (6/25/23)

What next for Russia’s Putin

• Prigozhin: “They wanted to disband the Wagner.”  “Now the moment has come when the blood will be spilled.  Russian blood will be spilled on one of the sides.”
• We don’t know where Prigozhin is now.  (Note: I saw something earlier that said he was establishing camps for his men in Belarus, but we don’t know).
• What is he expected to do there?  Retire?  Farm?  There are other parts of the Wagner group around the world.
• No sign of Prigozhin.
• What will happen to the mercenary troops?  They have been told that they won’t be prosecuted.  That is extraordinary.  They will be incorporated into the Defense Ministry.
• They did not want to be forced to sign contracts with the defense ministry.
• What will happen if Wagner mercenaries (this includes convicts) join the regular Russian army?  Will there be resentment?
• Perhaps 20,000 to 30,000 committed to the war in Ukraine from Wagner.
• Prigozhin is pretty popular among the families of fighters, he says things other people won’t way – like the military isn’t getting the support it needs.  What do these military men and families think about Prigozhin.
• (Note: Somebody wrote that Prigozhin’s main audience was the military and people associated with the military.)
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• Department of King’s College, London, Dr. J. McGlen
• Author of “Russia’s War.”
• Putin has been weakened but the extent depends on how the situation is resolved.
• What happens to the military top brass.  If they do, there will be unhappy people.  If Putin does take them away, it will weaken the system Putin depends on.  Not good options.
• People will have spent days contemplating a Russia without Putin, and that is different.  People are reassessing what the situation is.  This is especially true for the elites.
• The U-Turn?  There are reports that Putin was aware that this was going to happen, unconfirmed.  Other countries were aware.  Couldn’t have come as a huge shock due to escalating rhetoric.
• Prigozhin has been allowed to continue not just because Wagner is an effective fighting force.  He is also an avenue or outlet for those who are angry with how the war is being conducted.  This would explain why people in Rostov greeted Prigozhin so warmly.
• It’s not just about Prigozhin.  He represents certain forces among the elite.  It resolved the situation and Putin is very concerned with the civil war in 1917.

Russian Editor at BBC

• Looking at social media accounts believed to be associated with Wagner.  They are not providing any insight into what’s going to happen.  Whether rank and file will support this agreement.
• Prigozhin has been prolific on his social media accounts.  But since the decision to go back, he has been silent.
• Wagner accounts on social media are expressing their disdain for the regular military.  They are saying things like they should shoot themselves in the head.  But, there are no clues as to what is going to happen.
• Z commentators who support the war but not necessarily Putin are saying that the official military is to blame for the situation. 
• Where was the defense minister?  Where is the Defense Minister?
• They are asking what the Russians will do if the Ukrainians try to invade Russia like Prigozhin did.
• BBC.com/news for updates
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Defense Editor of the Economist

• 15,000 to 30,000 troops.  Perhaps 5,000 participated in the insurrection.
• They get relatively high wages with Wagner.
• Significant friction between mercenaries and the regular army are likely.
• Prigozhin has riled up his forces against a “war waged by an oligarchic elite” (Prigozhin’s words).  He said the war was unnecessary and didn’t need to be waged.
• Even before the revolt, Wagner troops thought the Russian military had conducted a missile strike against them.
• That’s what they believe, that’s what Prigozhin has told them.  So, how will they feel about joining troops who had shot and killed Wagner troops?
• It will also cause the regular troops to question the reasons for pursuing the war.  But, we don’t know what sort of media they are consuming.  They may believe Putin that these Wagner people are committing treason.  Then, they will wonder why this man who has committed treason is allowed to run off to Belarus.
• One of Prigozhin’s promises was that he would no longer allow Russian troops to be used as cannon fodder.
• Paints a picture of disarray and troops wondering why they are there.
• Will the dissolving of Wagner hurt the Russian military effort?  Not immediately.  When Wagner was removed from the front lines, it allowed Ukraine to make some successes in Bakhmut.
• Russia is short of reserve personnel and especially not trained personnel. 

Belarus: Belarusian journalist, Atlantic Council (31:00)

• He has experienced mass protests of his own people.  Putin helped him out.
• Lukashenko may have been just used by Putin.  They were trying to save face. 
• Was Putin going to kill Prigozhin?
• Lukashenko is a very loyal ally.
• But why would Prigozhin want to go to Belarus?
• Will he be safe there?  Putin has said he was a traitor.  Putin is not a forgiving person.
• Lukashenko is also under threat.  Putin treats Belarus as a back yard.  Lukashenko used doesn’t have any motivation to say no.
• He was currying favor with Putin.  This is the way people gain favor with Putin.
• People in Belarus (who in the past tried to overthrow Lukashenko) will see that Putin has been weakened.  This is a threat for Lukashenko.

Wagner, BBC Correspondent

• Wagner has an important presence in Africa.  Until last year Wagner denied it existed.
• Mali, CAR, Lybia, Sudan, Mozambique, Quino Faso
• What are they doing? Brought in by governments that are unstable (Mali and CAR) to do training.  The Russian government would have agreement with the country to uphold these regimes.  In return, they get mineral rights.
• Wagner is so well funded because they have gotten extraction rights to diamonds and gold mines.
• This is not just a mercenary group, but one of the key parts of Russian foreign policy, turn on its master.
• Wagner is used by the Russian government to do things it doesn’t want to take responsibility for.  The government can say, this is a private company, not part of the Russian government.
• Really significant for these places, Wagner. 
• They established bot farms to interfere in the US elections.  They are thought to have bot farms across Africa to interfere in elections.  (Note: Read information about Cambridge Analytica, which experimented in influencing elections in Africa as a prelude for the US interference.)
• Wagner has been an incredibly useful tool for Russia and a lucrative one.
• African people, some of them, would be glad to see Wagner disbanded.  They have a reputation (Human Rights Watch, UN) for violent treatment of people.  In Mali there are reports that Wagner killed hundreds of people.
• In Mali, Wagner came in and replaced the French troops that were there.  (Note: Why were French troops there?). 

On the streets of Russia, comments:

• We have stability.
• What Prigozhin did was wrong.  He stabbed us in the back (using Putin’s words).