Law, Power, and Justice

SNARKY NOTES ABOUT NEWS AND LIFE

I can hardly believe that it has been two years since we took the map of Ukrainian Europe and attached it to the bedroom wall for reference. 

BBC News: The Inquiry: How might the next US President affect the war in Ukraine?

• Zelensky is in the US talking to Biden and Harris about his
  Victor Plan.”
• Ukraine has no interest in giving up because Russia has no interest in the existence of Ukraine.
• Harris has said that there could be no end to this war without Ukraine.
• Mariia Zolkina, Ukrainian Researcher, is the head of a think tank in Kyiv.
• In 2014, Crimea, part of Ukraine was annexed by Russia.  In Early 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine.
• Putin has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine is a historical part of Russia and refuses to accept it as a separate country.
• (Note: A Ukrainian friend asked me how I was so certain that Putin was going to invade in early 2022 when everybody was saying that Putin would be mad to invade.  I couldn’t remember, but now I remember it was a speech made by Putin that clearly demonstrated his conviction that Ukraine did not exist separate from Russia).
• The Russians ae systematically destroying Ukrainian power plants and utility systems which would make the cities, especially, unlivable in the winter.
• People will not have power for hours at the time, no elevators for high rise apartment buildings, no electricity, no water, heating.  (Note: My friend south of Kyiv has power only a few hours a day.  She makes jewelry.)
• In august, Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia proper in Kursk.  Since then, Russia has reconquered about a forth of that land and made advances in the east.
• They are at a huge cost in lives, taking back the last cities under Ukrainian control in the Donsk. 
• Ukraine wants admission to NATO, a release from restrictions on one type of missile to be used in the attack deep inside Russia.  Third, the sanctions are no longer working well.  Russia has worked it’s way around the sanctions.  They must be tightened.
• Zelensky feels that if these measures were taken, the war could be over next year. 
• Part 1: Democrats
• Biden has supported Ukraine.
• Mary Ann Marsh, Democratic Strategist
• Harris has had “hands-on” involvement in the US support for and work with Ukraine and Zelensky.
• Earlier this month an announced $425 million of military aid.
• The US has provided funds, weapons and pilot training. 
• The legislature has just approved an individual and business increase in taxes.
• Considering American presidents, Biden has been much more supportive than Obama.  “Crimea gave Putin license in his mind to go ahead and invade Ukraine and any place else he wants.”
• The Republicans
• Matthew Kroenig, the Atlantic Council, author of “We win, they lose, Republican foreign policy and the New Cold War.”
• Trump said that Zelensky was the best salesman in the world.
• (Note: This guy thinks that Trump’s unpredictability is a deterrent to Putin.  He also argues that Putin was tough and clear with Putin about the consequences of invading Ukraine.)
• Trump communicated that there would be “severe consequences.”  (Note: Bull shit.)
• 17.00
• Trump has said that the US is giving Ukraine too much aide.  He is skeptical about Biden’s strategy.  His instinct is to bring it to a close.
• The government should be thinking about what a deal to end the war would look like, who would be at the table.
• There’s a 50-50 chance that Trump would be “forcing a negotiation.”
• The Moment of Risk: Part Four
• Matthew Stadow, World United Services Institute
• Ukraine’s success is to deny Russia their main objective.
• The end of Biden’s administration and the beginning of another is going to be a moment of Risk.
• Russians have been “refurbishing old equipment” for the battlefield.  This is expensive production of new tanks, shells, etc.  Can they produce the new stuff at a rate they are losing it.
• Russians potentially see a ceasefire as a time to regroup.
• Europe can act as “more of an insurance.”   Europe has not delivered everything it has pledged.  Is there the political will to fulfill what it has promised.