Law, Power, and Justice

MONDAY 18 AUGUST 2025

        Well, we are all waiting again this morning for news about the contours of the betrayal (yet another one) of Ukraine.  Trump is evidently focused like a laser on the really important issues that are involved.  His administration has asked what Zelensky will wear to the summit at the White House.  Evidently, he wants Zelensky to wear a suit.  What he wants is to humiliate Zelensky.  There is a video on the internet showing a Russian tank moving to attack a part of Ukraine flying both Russian and U.S. flags.  That’s where we are today folks.  Thank the Republican Party.

        Trump has already moved away from his demand for an immediate ceasefire which was not taken well in Ukraine. 

        The cats are downstairs, outside for their morning walk.  It is the highlight of their day to go sniffing around the yard while Mike sits and watches them.  If Mike goes back inside for coffee, they will come back inside to check on him.  They are smart enough to know that having the “big dog” outside watching over them is a requirement.

        My God, I don’t know why any of these people (David Ignatius) think security guarantees from the United States have any meaning.  According to Ignatius, the worst would be that Trump pushes Zelensky to give up all of the Donbas, and the Europeans for all their tough talk, don’t stand up to this demand.  Ukraine would be pushed to make concessions without getting anything in return.  Scarborough asks what if Zelensky gets “rock solid” security guarantees, what will he give up.  What an absurd question. The Ukrainians have already been given “rock solid” guarantees.  They signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1993 where they were given security assurances by Russia and the United States and the United Kingdom.  And, what did it get them?

To evaluate the effectiveness of the Budapest Memorandum, consider these points:

The agreement lacked binding enforcement mechanisms for signatories.

It did not provide military support or intervention guarantees.

Signatories failed to respond decisively during the 2014 Crimea crisis.

The memorandum relied heavily on diplomatic assurances rather than legal obligations.

It did not prevent the violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty by Russia.

The lack of consequences for breaches undermined its credibility.

9:20

Mark Hertling, Fmr. Military.  Joe Scarborough is asking about what kind of security guarantees would assure Zelensky and the Ukrainians that they could live “safely” in their country.

• A ceasefire would have given both sides time to think and create a breathing space for further negotiations.
• This is Russia.  There is the invasion of Crimea and Georgia.  2007 massive cyber attack on Estonia because they moved a Russian statue, They are still in Moldova.  There has been nterference in the Romanian elections, then the invasion Donbas and Crimea.
• The Russians are famous for breaking their deals. 

2:30

• The seven European leaders, Trump and Zelensky just posed for a photo.  Nobody looked very happy.   
• The Russians occupy something like 19% of Ukrainian territory. 
• CNN, Cedric Leighton, Military Analyst.  Zelensky may have to cede some of the land temporarily but preserve the notion that land cannot be taken by force.  (Note: And how do you do that?)
• Trump says they are going to call Putin right after the group meeting.  (Note: I feel so bad for Zelensky.  He seems so very stressed.  I couldn’t do this).  Trump is introducing people.  Everything Trump does is a show.  (They all look like they would rather be anywhere else in the world).  Trump is commenting on how people look, their tans.  He is expressing jealousy about somebody’s tan. 
• Trump says Russia “would accept” security guarantees for Ukraine.  He is talking about “possible exchanges of territory.”  Trump keeps talking about a tri-lat meeting.  Trump is now offering to go to the tri-lat.  (I bet they would love that.)  Trump keeps bragging about how many wars he’s stopped.  He is so unutterably insufferable. 
• The German Chancellor is asking for a ceasefire from the next meeting.  He is saying that Putin should be pressured for a ceasefire.  Trump: “In the six wars I’ve settled, I haven’t had a ceasefire.”  (Note: He’s trying to cover up for the fact that Putin wouldn’t give him a ceasefire. 
• Meloni: Since you (Trump) we hadn’t seen any interest by Putin for a ceasefire.  We need security guarantees.  We start from the Article 5 model. 
• Macron: Security for Ukraine is security for Europe.  We need a credible Ukrainian army, and commitment for security guarantees.