WEDNESDAY 23 MARCH 2022: 10:30 pm

CNN

• Georgian president says that Putin’s instinct is toward expansion. 

TWITTER

• Ted Lieu is arguing that we should provide MIG’s to Ukraine.
• Vindman posts an excerpt from his book “Here Right Matters.”  “Russia is adept at a technique – it’s part of a uniquely Russian doctrine called “reflexive control” – in which it conveys information that inclines an opponent to overreact to a risk and to self-deter, thus making the very decision Russia desires.”
• Vindman follows “War on the Rocks” a podcast worth listening to.

WAR ON THE ROCKS, “UNDERSTANDING PUTIN’S NUCLEAR DECISION-MAKING” (3/22/22)

• Norwegian authorities recently notified all families to keep a stock of iodine at home for children and people under 40 in case of a nuclear incident.
• Some argue “his (Putin’s) nuclear decision-making may have acquired religious overtones.”
• “The prevalent explanation is that the move from an authoritarian system to a personalist dictatorship has produced idiosyncratic decision-making, including a situation where military commanders were notified at the very last minute of operations in Ukraine.”
• “…claiming that military leaders and the General Staff were kept in the dark remains speculative.”
• “There is no way Russian commanders and military planners did not know, even if they did not know the fine details.” (Note: This notion has become part of the accepted narrative.)
• “The nuclear activity we have seen so far suggests that Putin is not the sole decision-maker impacting nuclear movements.”
• Putin does not have exclusive ability to push a button for a nuclear attack.  There are at least three “buttons,” and most reporting indicates that at least two of them are needed to trigger an attack.
• “The general staff would also need to accept the order as valid before it went out into the military unit controlling the nuclear weapons.”
• (Note: Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov.  Shoigu was one of the ones who looked particularly unhappy when Putin did the announcement of the “special combat regime.”  Shoigu is the man many point to when speculating about a coup.)
• (Note: The General staff of the Main Operational Directorate conducts nuclear planning.)