THURSDAY 6 OCTOBER 2022

UKRAINE

Intelligence Matters Podcast

• Putin gave a speech essentially saying that Russia would not give back these annexed territories and Ukraine has only one option, negotiate.
• The military situation on the ground is disastrous for the Russians
• Escalation is likely as Putin sees that he will not get what he wants.
• Putin is putting on a brave front with public displays but saying something does not make it so.  The situation continues to deteriorate for him.  Bloggers are calling out Putin, military bloggers, former intelligence officers.  They are criticizing the annexation. 
• Zelensky has asked for accelerated admission to NATO.
• Putin’s options are diminishing.  The compensation will likely be in using tactical weapons.
• It is a way of striking back at a military you can’t defeat on the ground.
• We are seven months into the war and Putin may feel that somehow, he will get an advantage using these weapons.
• There is no succession plan.  Putin needs to keep the support of this inner circle.
• Options if the Russians use tactical nuclear weapons:
• Ensuring that Putin doesn’t get away with nuclear blackmail. 
• 1) Nuclear response.  Putin needs to understand that that’s on the table.  2) Kinetic response to impose devastating military answer.  3) Combination of an economic and political price. 
• Russia must be considered a pariah state. 
• There are going to be surprises, but we can’t afford to be surprised.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE UPDATE PODCAST

• Russia is incapable of responding to three counteroffensives at the same time.
• Surrenders in Kherson will create a cascade of Russian troops.
• Mass surrenders may create a problem for Ukrainians.
• Putin’s reputation has been damaged.
• Mobilization efforts will be ineffective due to corruption and the breaking of the social contract with the Russian people.
• Conscripts are being sent in with vital training or equipment.
• There is a heightened risk of terror attacks in central Ukraine.
• Troops that were rushed to the front in the past week have not improved Russia’s position.

NYT

• Putin has announced that Russia is “nationalizing” the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and intends to start running it.
• Private arms sales to Ukraine, allowed and facilitated by the Biden administration, open a “wild west” area of potential graft and corruption. 

UKRAINE WORLD

• Seven missile strikes overnight at Zaporizhia.

KYIV INDEPENDENT

• Russia continues to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
• Belarus has sent wagons of ammunition to Russian troops.
• EU adopts a new package of sanctions against Russia.
• Twice as many draft-age Russians left the country than joined the army.

THE MOSCOW TIMES

• A senior Kremlin-installed official in Kherson region criticized publicly Russian military officials.  In a video posted on Telegram, he suggested that the acting governor “should simply shoot himself like a real officer.”
• Russian regions experiencing the highest rates of poverty have mobilized the largest share of conscripts.
• Balarus President Lukashenko has banned price increases amidst galloping inflation.
• Mobilized Russian soldiers will not be reimbursed for medical supplies they bring to the front with them.
• Jailed Kremlin critic Kara-Murza faces new treason charges.  He was jailed on charges of disobeying police orders, then “discrediting” the Armed Forces and now charges of cooperating with an “undesirable” foreign NGO.
• Kara-Murza survived two poisoning attempts and like Navalny returned to Russia.
• Georgia is struggling to deal with thousands of Russians seeking refuge.

Tail Ends

• The United States is considering sending aid to Cuba in response to hurricane damage.
• Russian soldiers are abandoning equipment but taking loot as they retreat.